Aims. Restoring the pre-morbid anatomy of the proximal humerus is a goal of anatomical shoulder arthroplasty, but reliance is placed on the surgeon’s experience and on anatomical estimations. The purpose of this study was to present a novel method, ‘Statistical Shape Modelling’, which accurately predicts the pre-morbid proximal humeral anatomy and calculates the 3D geometric parameters needed to restore normal anatomy in patients with severe degenerative osteoarthritis or a fracture of the proximal humerus. Materials and Methods. From a database of 57 humeral CT scans 3D humeral reconstructions were manually created. The reconstructions were used to construct a statistical shape model (SSM), which was then tested on a second set of 52 scans. For each humerus in the second set, 3D reconstructions of four diaphyseal segments of varying lengths were created. These reconstructions were chosen to mimic severe osteoarthritis, a fracture of the surgical neck of the humerus and a proximal humeral fracture with diaphyseal extension. The SSM was then applied to the diaphyseal segments to see how well it predicted proximal morphology, using the actual proximal humeral morphology for comparison. Results. With the metaphysis included, mimicking osteoarthritis, the errors of prediction for retroversion, inclination, height, radius of curvature and posterior and medial offset of the head of the humerus were 2.9° (± 2.3°), 4.0° (± 3.3°), 1.0 mm (± 0.8 mm), 0.8 mm (± 0.6 mm), 0.7 mm (± 0.5 mm) and 1.0 mm (± 0.7 mm), respectively. With the metaphysis excluded, mimicking a fracture of the surgical neck, the errors of prediction for retroversion, inclination, height, radius of curvature and posterior and medial offset of the head of the humerus were 3.8° (± 2.9°), 3.9° (± 3.4°), 2.4 mm (± 1.9 mm), 1.3 mm (± 0.9 mm), 0.8 mm (± 0.5 mm) and 0.9 mm (± 0.6 mm), respectively. Conclusion. This study reports a novel, computerised method that accurately predicts the pre-morbid proximal humeral anatomy even in challenging situations. This information can be used in the surgical planning and operative reconstruction of patients with severe degenerative osteoarthritis or with a fracture of the proximal humerus. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:927–33

Aims. The risk factors for recurrent instability (RI) following a primary traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (PTASD) remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the rate of RI in a large cohort of patients managed nonoperatively after PTASD and to develop a clinical prediction model. Methods. A total of 1,293 patients with PTASD managed nonoperatively were identified from a trauma database (mean age 23.3 years (15 to 35); 14.3% female). We assessed the prevalence of RI, and used multivariate regression modelling to evaluate which demographic- and injury-related factors were independently predictive for its occurrence. Results. The overall rate of RI at a mean follow-up of 34.4 months (SD 47.0) was 62.8% (n = 812), with 81.0% (n = 658) experiencing their first recurrence within two years of PTASD. The median time for recurrence was 9.8 months (IQR 3.9 to 19.4). Independent predictors increasing risk of RI included male sex (p < 0.001), younger age at PTASD (p < 0.001), participation in contact sport (p < 0.001), and the presence of a bony Bankart (BB) lesion (p = 0.028). Greater tuberosity fracture (GTF) was protective (p < 0.001). However, the discriminative ability of the resulting predictive model for two-year risk of RI was poor (area under the curve (AUC) 0.672). A subset analysis excluding identifiable radiological predictors of BB and GTF worsened the predictive ability (AUC 0.646). Conclusion. This study clarifies the prevalence and risk factors for RI following PTASD in a large, unselected patient cohort. Although these data permitted the development of a predictive tool for RI, its discriminative ability was poor. Predicting RI remains challenging, and as-yet-undetermined risk factors may be important in determining the risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1111–1117

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims

The objective of this study was to compare simulated range of motion (ROM) for reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA) with and without adjustment for scapulothoracic orientation in a global reference system. We hypothesized that values for simulated ROM in preoperative planning software with and without adjustment for scapulothoracic orientation would be significantly different.

Aims

This study aimed to answer the following questions: do 3D-printed models lead to a more accurate recognition of the pattern of complex fractures of the elbow?; do 3D-printed models lead to a more reliable recognition of the pattern of these injuries?; and do junior surgeons benefit more from 3D-printed models than senior surgeons?

Aims

The purpose of this study was to compare clinical results, long-term survival, and complication rates of stemless shoulder prosthesis with stemmed anatomical shoulder prostheses for treatment of osteoarthritis and to analyze radiological bone changes around the implants during follow-up.

Aims

The aim of this study was to define the complications and long-term outcome following adolescent mid-shaft clavicular fracture.

Aims

In patients with a rotator cuff tear, tear pattern and tendon involvement are known risk factors for the development of pseudoparalysis of the shoulder. It remains unclear, however, why similar tears often have very different functional consequences. The present study hypothesizes that individual shoulder anatomy, specifically the moment arms (MAs) of the rotator cuff (RC) and the deltoid muscle, as well as their relative recruitment during shoulder abduction, plays a central role in pseudoparalysis.

Aims

Patients with recurrent anterior dislocation of the shoulder commonly have an anterior osseous defect of the glenoid. Once the defect reaches a critical size, stability may be restored by bone grafting. The critical size of this defect under non-physiological loading conditions has previously been identified as 20% of the length of the glenoid. As the stability of the shoulder is load-dependent, with higher joint forces leading to a loss of stability, the aim of this study was to determine the critical size of an osseous defect that leads to further anterior instability of the shoulder under physiological loading despite a Bankart repair.

Aims

The aim of the study was to develop a quantitative scoring system to predict whether a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear was arthroscopically reparable prior to surgery.

We assessed the age-related differences in the use of total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) and outcomes, and associated time-trends using the United States Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) between 1998 and 2010. Age was categorised as < 50, 50 to 64, 65 to 79 and ≥ 80 years. Time-trends in the use of TSA were compared using logistic regression or the Cochran Armitage test.

The overall use of TSA increased from 2.96/100 000 in 1998 to 12.68/100 000 in 2010. Significantly lower rates were noted between 2009 and 2010, compared with between 1998 and 2000, for: mortality, 0.1% versus 0.2% (p = 0.004); discharge to an inpatient facility, 13.3% versus 14.5% (p = 0.039), and hospital stay > median, 29.4% versus 51.2% (p < 0.001).

The rates of use of TSA/100 000 by age groups, < 50, 50 to 64, 65 to 79 and ≥ 80 years were: 0.32, 4.62, 17.82 and 12.56, respectively in 1998 (p < 0.001); and 0.65, 17.49, 75.27 and 49.05, respectively in 2010 (p < 0.001) with an increasing age-related difference over time (p <  0.001). Across the age categories, there were significant differences in the proportion: discharged to an inpatient facility, 3.2% versus 4.2% versus 14.7% versus 36.5%, respectively in 1998 (p < 0.001) and 1.8% versus 4.3% versus 12.5% versus 35.5%, respectively in 2010 (p <  0.001) and the proportion with hospital stay > median, 39.7% versus 40.2% versus 53% versus 69%, respectively in 1998 (p < 0.001) and 17.2% versus 20.6% versus 28.7% versus 50.7%, respectively in 2010 (p < 0.001).

In a nationally representative sample, we noted a time-related increase in the use of TSA and increasing age-related differences in outcomes indicating a changing epidemiology of the use of TSA. Age-related differences in outcomes suggest that attention should focus on groups with the worst outcomes.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1385–9.

Resurfacing of the humeral head is commonly used within the UK to treat osteoarthritis (OA) of the shoulder. We present the results of a small prospective randomised study of this procedure using the Global CAP prosthesis with two different coatings, Porocoat and DuoFix hydroxyapatite (HA). We followed two groups of ten patients with OA of the shoulder for two years after insertion of the prosthesis with tantalum marker beads, recording pain, Constant–Murley and American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) outcome scores, and using radiostereometric analysis to assess migration. The outcomes were similar to those of other series, with significant reductions in pain (p = 0.003) and an improvement in the Constant (p = 0.001) and ASES scores (p = 0.006). The mean migration of the prosthesis three months post-operatively was 0.78 mm (0.51 to 1.69) and 0.72 mm (0.33 to 1.45) for the Porocoat and DuoFix groups, respectively. Analysis of variance indicated that the rate of migration reached a plateau after three months post-operatively in both groups. At follow-up of two years the mean migration was 1 mm (sd 1 (0.25 to 3.32)); in the Porocoat group and 0.8 mm (sd 0.4 (0.27 to 1.45)) in the DuoFix HA group. Significant migration of the prosthesis was seen in one patient who had received an anterior humeral bone graft. This prosthesis was later revised after 2.7 years.

The addition of a coating of HA to the sintered surface does not improve fixation of this prosthesis.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1077–81.