Aims. The aim of this study was to determine if the Oxford Knee and Hip Score (OKHS) can accurately predict when a primary knee or hip referral is deemed nonsurgical versus surgical by the surgeon during their first consultation, and to identify nonsurgical OKHS screening thresholds. Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed pre-consultation OKHS for all consecutive primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) consultations of a single surgeon over three years. The 1436 knees (1016 patients) and 478 hips (388 patients) included were categorized based on the surgeon’s decision into those offered surgery during the first consultation versus those not (nonsurgical). Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed. Results. Oxford Scores were better for the nonsurgical cohorts (p < 0.001) and correlated with the surgical decision (p < 0.001). ROC area under the curve values for knees (0.83, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.81 to 0.85) and hips (0.87, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.91) were excellent. A conservative and effective threshold for knees is Oxford Knee Score (OKS) > 32 points (sensitivity = 0.997, negative predictive value (NPV) = 0.992) and for hips is Oxford Hip Score (OHS) > 34 points (sensitivity = 0.997, NPV = 0.978). Severable potential lower OKHS thresholds were identified. Conclusion. Pre-consultation OKHS demonstrate good ability to predict when a primary TKA or THA referral will be deemed nonsurgical in a single surgeon’s practice. Multiple OKHS thresholds can effectively screen out nonsurgical referrals. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(6 Supple B):23–30