Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

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To determine if patient ethnicity among patients with a hip fracture influences the type of fracture, surgical care, and outcome.

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to develop a reliable, effective radiological score to assess the healing of humeral shaft fractures, the Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU). The secondary aim was to assess whether the six-week RUSHU was predictive of nonunion at six months after the injury.

We undertook a retrospective case-control study to assess the clinical variables associated with infections in open fractures. A total of 1492 open fractures were retrieved; these were Gustilo and Anderson grade I in 663 (44.4%), grade II in 370 (24.8%), grade III in 310 (20.8%) and unclassifiable in 149 (10.0%). The median duration of prophylaxis was three days (interquartile range (IQR) 1 to 3), and the median number of surgical interventions was two (1 to 9). We identified 54 infections (3.6%) occurring at a median of ten days (IQR 5 to 20) after trauma. Pathogens intrinsically resistant to the empirical antibiotic regimen used (enterococci, Enterobacter spp, Pseudomonas spp) were documented in 35 of 49 cases (71%). In multivariable regression analyses, grade III fractures and vascular injury or compartment syndrome were significantly associated with infection. Overall, compared with one day of antibiotic treatment, two to three days (odds ratio (OR) 0.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2 to 2.0)), four to five days (OR 1.2 (95% CI 0.3 to 4.9)), or > five days (OR 1.4 (95% CI 0.4 to 4.4)) did not show any significant differences in the infection risk. These results were similar when multivariable analysis was performed for grade III fractures only (OR 0.3 (95% CI 0.1 to 3.4); OR 0.6 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.1); and OR 1.7 (95% CI 0.5 to 6.2), respectively).

Infection in open fractures is related to the extent of tissue damage but not to the duration of prophylactic antibiotic therapy. Even for grade III fractures, a one-day course of prophylactic antibiotics might be as effective as prolonged prophylaxis.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:831–7.