To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration.Aims
Methods
Arthroplasty registries are important for the
surveillance of joint replacements and the evaluation of outcome. Independent
validation of registry data ensures high quality. The ability for
orthopaedic implant retrieval centres to validate registry data
is not known. We analysed data from the National Joint Registry
for England, Wales and Northern Ireland (NJR) for primary metal-on-metal
hip arthroplasties performed between 2003 and 2013. Records were
linked to the London Implant Retrieval Centre (RC) for validation.
A total of 67 045 procedures on the NJR and 782 revised pairs of
components from the RC were included. We were able to link 476 procedures
(60.9%) recorded with the RC to the NJR successfully. However, 306
procedures (39.1%) could not be linked. The outcome recorded by the
NJR (as either revised, unrevised or death) for a primary procedure
was incorrect in 79 linked cases (16.6%). The rate of registry-retrieval
linkage and correct assignment of outcome code improved over time.
The rates of error for component reference numbers on the NJR were
as follows: femoral head category number 14/229 (5.0%); femoral head
batch number 13/232 (5.3%); acetabular component category number
2/293 (0.7%) and acetabular component batch number 24/347 (6.5%). Registry-retrieval linkage provided a novel means for the validation
of data, particularly for component fields. This study suggests
that NJR reports may underestimate rates of revision for many types
of metal-on-metal hip replacement. This is topical given the increasing
scope for NJR data. We recommend a system for continuous independent
evaluation of the quality and validity of NJR data. Cite this article:
We present the development and results of a nationwide, prospective, observational follow-up programme including patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. The programme started in 2002 and has gradually expanded to include all units performing total hip replacement in Sweden. The self-administered PROMs protocol comprises the EQ-5D instrument, the Charnley class categorisation and visual analogue scales for pain and satisfaction. These current analyses include 34 960 total hip replacements with complete pre- and one-year post-operative questionnaires. Patients eligible for total hip replacement generally report low health-related quality of life and suffer from pain. One year post-operatively the mean EQ-5D index increased to above the level of an age- and gender-matched population, with a considerable reduction of pain (p <
0.001). Females, younger patients and those with Charnley category C reported a lower EQ-5D index pre-operatively than males, older patients and Charnley category A or B, respectively (all p <
0.001). In a multivariable regression analysis Charnley category C, male gender and higher age were associated with less improvement in health-related quality of life (p <
0.001). Nationwide implementation of a PROMs programme requires a structured organisation and effective data capture. Patients’ response rates to the Registry are good. The continuous collection of PROMs permits local and national improvement work and allows for further health-economic evaluation.
