The use of pulsed electromagnetic fields (PEMF) to stimulate bone growth has been recommended as an alternative to the surgical treatment of ununited scaphoid fractures, but has never been examined in acute fractures. We hypothesised that the use of PEMF in acute scaphoid fractures would accelerate the time to union by 30% in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. A total of 53 patients in three different medical centres with a unilateral undisplaced acute scaphoid fracture were randomly assigned to receive either treatment with PEMF (n = 24) or a placebo (n = 29). The clinical and radiological outcomes were assessed at four, six, nine, 12, 24 and 52 weeks. A log-rank analysis showed that neither time to clinical and radiological union nor the functional outcome differed significantly between the groups. The clinical assessment of union indicated that at six weeks tenderness in the anatomic snuffbox (p = 0.03) as well as tenderness on longitudinal compression of the scaphoid (p = 0.008) differed significantly in favour of the placebo group. We conclude that stimulation of bone growth by PEMF has no additional value in the conservative treatment of acute scaphoid fractures

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes associated with culture-negative limb osteomyelitis patients. Methods. A total of 1,047 limb osteomyelitis patients aged 18 years or older who underwent debridement and intraoperative culture at our clinic centre from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2020 were included. Patient characteristics, infection eradication, and complications were analyzed between culture-negative and culture-positive cohorts. Results. Of these patients, 264 (25.2%) had negative cultures. Patients with a culture-negative compared with a culture-positive status were more likely to have the following characteristics: younger age (≤ 40 years) (113/264 (42.8%) vs 257/783 (32.8%); p = 0.004), a haematogenous aetiology (75/264 (28.4%) vs 150/783 (19.2%); p = 0.002), Cierny-Mader host A (79/264 (29.9%) vs 142/783 (18.1%); p < 0.001), antibiotic use before sampling (34/264 (12.9%) vs 41/783 (5.2%); p＜0.001), fewer taken samples (n＜3) (48/264 (18.2%) vs 60/783 (7.7%); p＜0.001), and less frequent presentation with a sinus (156/264 (59.1%) vs 665/783 (84.9%); p < 0.001). After initial treatments of first-debridement and antimicrobial, infection eradication was inferior in culture-positive osteomyelitis patients, with a 2.24-fold increase (odds ratio 2.24 (95% confidence interval 1.42 to 3.52)) in the redebridement rate following multivariate analysis. No statistically significant differences were found in long-term recurrence and complications within the two-year follow-up. Conclusion. We identified several factors being associated with the culture-negative result in osteomyelitis patients. In addition, the data also indicate that culture negativity is a positive prognostic factor in early infection eradication. These results constitute the basis of optimizing clinical management and patient consultations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):720–727

Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the prediction of adverse outcome after hip fracture. Methods. Of 1,577 consecutive patients aged > 65 years with a fragility hip fracture admitted to one institution, for whom there were complete data, 1,255 (72%) were studied. Clinicians assigned CFS scores on admission. Audit personnel routinely prospectively completed the Standardised Audit of Hip Fracture in Europe form, including the following outcomes: 30-day survival; in-hospital complications; length of acute hospital stay; and new institutionalization. The relationship between the CFS scores and outcomes was examined graphically and the visual interpretations were tested statistically. The predictive values of the CFS and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality were compared using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results. Significant non-linear associations between CFS and outcomes were observed. Risk of death within 30 days rose linearly for CFS 1 to 5, but plateaued for CFS > 5. The incidence of complications and length of stay rose linearly for CFS 1 to 4, but plateaued for CFS > 4. In contrast, the risk of new institutionalization rose linearly for CFS 1 to 8. The AUCs for 30-day mortality for the CFS and NHFS were very similar: CFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69) and NHFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69). Conclusion. Use of the CFS may provide useful information on outcomes for fitter patients presenting with hip fracture, but completion of the CFS by the admitting orthopaedic team does not appear successful in distinguishing between higher CFS categories, which define patients with frailty. This makes a strong case for the role of the orthogeriatrician in the early assessment of these patients. Further work is needed to understand why patients assessed as being of mild, moderate, and severe frailty do not result in different outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):980–986

Aims. To clarify the effectiveness of the induced membrane technique (IMT) using beta-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) for reconstruction of segmental bone defects by evaluating clinical and radiological outcomes, and the effect of defect size and operated site on surgical outcomes. Methods. A review of the medical records was conducted of consecutive 35 lower limbs (30 males and five females; median age 46 years (interquartile range (IQR) 40 to 61)) treated with IMT using β-TCP between 2014 and 2018. Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS) was examined preoperatively and at final follow-up to clarify patient-centered outcomes. Bone healing was assessed radiologically, and time from the second stage to bone healing was also evaluated. Patients were divided into ≥ 50 mm and < 50 mm defect groups and into femoral reconstruction, tibial reconstruction, and ankle arthrodesis groups. Results. There were ten and 25 defects in the femur and tibia, respectively. Median LEFS improved significantly from 8 (IQR 1.5 to 19.3) preoperatively to 63.5 (IQR 57 to 73.3) at final follow-up (p < 0.001). Bone healing was achieved in all limbs, and median time from the second stage to bone healing was six months (IQR 5 to 10). Median time to bone healing, preoperative LEFS, or postoperative LEFS did not differ significantly between the defect size groups or among the treatment groups. Conclusion. IMT using β-TCP provided satisfactory clinical and radiological outcomes for segmental bone defects in the lower limbs; surgical outcomes were not influenced by bone defect size or operated part. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):456–461

Aims. There is a lack of long-term data for minimally invasive acromioclavicular (AC) joint repair. Furthermore, it is not clear if good early clinical results can be maintained over time. The purpose of this study was to report long-term results of minimally invasive AC joint reconstruction (MINAR) and compare it to corresponding short-term data. Methods. We assessed patients with a follow-up of at least five years after minimally invasive flip-button repair for high-grade AC joint dislocation. The clinical outcome was evaluated using the Constant score and a questionnaire. Ultrasound determined the coracoclavicular (CC) distance. Results of the current follow-up were compared to the short-term results of the same cohort. Results. A total of 50 patients (three females, 47 males) were successfully followed up for a minimum of five years. The mean follow-up was 7.7 years (63 months to 132 months). The overall Constant score was 94.4 points (54 to 100) versus 97.7 points (83 to 100) for the contralateral side showing a significant difference for the operated shoulder (p = 0.013) The mean difference in the CC distance between the operated and the contralateral shoulder was 3.7 mm (0.2 to 7.8; p = 0.010). In total, 16% (n = 8) of patients showed recurrent instability. All these cases were performed within the first 16 months after introduction of this technique. A total of 84% (n = 42) of the patients were able to return to their previous occupations and sport activities. Comparison of short-term and long-term results revealed no significant difference for the Constant Score (p = 0.348) and the CC distance (p = 0.974). Conclusion. The clinical outcome of MINAR is good to excellent after long-term follow-up and no significant differences were found compared to short-term results. We therefore suggest this is a reliable technique for surgical treatment of high-grade AC joint dislocation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):918–924

Aims. Our aim, using English Hospital Episode Statistics data before during and after the Distal Radius Acute Fracture Fixation Trial (DRAFFT), was to assess whether the results of the trial affected clinical practice. Patients and Methods. Data were grouped into six month intervals from July 2005 to December 2014. All patient episodes in the National Health Service involving emergency surgery for an isolated distal radial fracture were included. Results. Clinical practice in England had not changed in the five years before DRAFFT: 75% of patients were treated with plate fixation versus 12% with Kirschner (K)-wires. After the publication of the trial, the proportion of patients having K-wire fixation rose to 42% with a concurrent fall in the proportion having fixation with a plate to 48%. The proportion of ‘other’ procedures stayed the same. Take home message. It appears that surgeons in the United Kingdom do change their practice in response to large, pragmatic, multicentre clinical trials in musculoskeletal trauma. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:410–13

We prospectively assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the gravity stress test and clinical findings to evaluate the stability of the ankle mortise in patients with supination–external rotation-type fractures of the lateral malleolus without widening of the medial clear space. The cohort included 79 patients with a mean age of 44 years (16 to 82). Two surgeons assessed medial tenderness, swelling and ecchymosis and performed the external rotation (ER) stress test (a reference standard). A diagnostic radiographer performed the gravity stress test. For the gravity stress test, the positive likelihood ratio (LR) was 5.80 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 2.75 to 12.27, and the negative LR was 0.15 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), suggesting a moderate change from the pre-test probability. Medial tenderness, both alone and in combination with swelling and/or ecchymosis, indicated a small change (positive LR, 2.74 to 3.25; negative LR, 0.38 to 0.47), whereas swelling and ecchymosis indicated only minimal changes (positive LR, 1.41 to 1.65; negative LR, 0.38 to 0.47). . In conclusion, when gravity stress test results are in agreement with clinical findings, the result is likely to predict stability of the ankle mortise with an accuracy equivalent to ER stress test results. When clinical examination suggests a medial-side injury, however, the gravity stress test may give a false negative result. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:1126–31

We aimed to identify variables associated with clinical and radiological outcome following fractures of the acetabulum associated with posterior dislocation of the hip. Using a prospective database of 1076 such fractures, we identified 109 patients with this combined injury managed operatively within three weeks and followed up for two or more years. The patients had a mean age of 42 years (15 to 79), 78 (72%) were male, and 84 (77%) had been involved in motor vehicle accidents. Using multivariate analysis the quality of reduction of the fracture was identified as the only significant predictor of radiological grade, clinical function and the development of post-traumatic arthritis (p < 0.001). All patients lacking anatomical reduction developed arthritis whereas only 25.5% (24 patients) with an anatomical reduction did so (p = 0.05). The quality of the reduction of the fracture is the most important variable in forecasting the outcome for patients with this injury. The interval to reduction of the dislocation of the hip may be less important than previously described

In the assessment of fracture healing by monitoring stiffness with vibrational analysis or instrumented external fixators, it has been assumed that there is a workable correlation between stiffness and strength. We used four-point bending tests to study time-related changes in stiffness and strength in healing tibial fractures in sheep. We aimed to test the validity of the measurement of stiffness to assess fracture strength. At each duration of healing examined, we found marked variations in stiffness and strength. Stiffness was shown to be load-dependent: measurements at higher loads reflected ultimate strength more accurately. There was a biphasic relationship between stiffness and strength: at first there was a strong correlation regardless of loading conditions, but in the second phase, which included the period of ‘clinical healing’, stiffness and strength were not significantly correlated. We conclude that the monitoring of stiffness is useful primarily in assessing progress towards union but is inherently limited as an assessment of strength at the time of clinical union. Any interpretation of stiffness must take into account the load conditions

A total of 63 women who had an operation for a fracture of the hip was randomly allocated to one year of treatment either with anabolic steroids, vitamin D and calcium (anabolic group) or with calcium only (control group). The thigh muscle volume was measured by quantitative CT. The bone mineral density of the hip, femur and tibia was assessed by quantitative CT and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and of the heel by quantitative ultrasound. Quantitative CT showed that the anabolic group did not lose muscle volume during the first 12 months whereas the control group did (p< 0.01). There was less bone loss in the proximal tibia in the anabolic group than in the control group. The speed of gait and the Harris hip score were significantly better in the anabolic group after six and 12 months. Anabolic steroids, even in this moderate dose, given in combination with vitamin D and calcium had a beneficial effect on muscle volume, bone mineral density and clinical function in this group of elderly women

The capacity for physiotherapy to improve the outcome after fracture of the distal radius is unproven. We carried out a randomised controlled trial on 96 patients, comparing conventional physiotherapy with a regime of home exercises. The function of the upper limb was assessed at the time of removal of the plaster cast and at three and six months after injury. Factors which may predict poor outcome in these patients were sought.

Grip strength and hand function did not significantly differ between the two groups. Flexion and extension of the wrist were the only movements to improve with physiotherapy at six months (p = 0.001). Predictors of poor functional outcome were malunion and impaired function before the fracture. These patients presented with pain, decreased rotation of the forearm and low functional scores at six weeks.

Our study has shown that home exercises are adequate rehabilitation after uncomplicated fracture of the distal radius, and routine referral for a course of physiotherapy should be discouraged. The role of physiotherapy in patients at high risk of a poor outcome requires further investigation.

Aims. Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. Methods. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS. Results. In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias. Conclusion. We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):412–418

Aims. The aim of this study was to perform the first population-based description of the epidemiological and health economic burden of fracture-related infection (FRI). Methods. This is a retrospective cohort study of operatively managed orthopaedic trauma patients from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016, performed in Queensland, Australia. Record linkage was used to develop a person-centric, population-based dataset incorporating routinely collected administrative, clinical, and health economic information. The FRI group consisted of patients with International Classification of Disease 10th Revision diagnosis codes for deep infection associated with an implanted device within two years following surgery, while all others were deemed not infected. Demographic and clinical variables, as well as healthcare utilization costs, were compared. Results. There were 111,402 patients operatively managed for orthopaedic trauma, with 2,775 of these (2.5%) complicated by FRI. The development of FRI had a statistically significant association with older age, male sex, residing in rural/remote areas, Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander background, lower socioeconomic status, road traffic accident, work-related injuries, open fractures, anatomical region (lower limb, spine, pelvis), high injury severity, requiring soft-tissue coverage, and medical comorbidities (univariate analysis). Patients with FRI had an eight-times longer median inpatient length of stay (24 days vs 3 days), and a 2.8-times higher mean estimated inpatient hospitalization cost (AU$56,565 vs AU$19,773) compared with uninfected patients. The total estimated inpatient cost of the FRI cohort to the healthcare system was AU$156.9 million over the ten-year period. Conclusion. The results of this study advocate for improvements in trauma care and infection management, address social determinants of health, and highlight the upside potential to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):77–85

Aims. Acetabular fractures are associated with long-term morbidity. Our prospective cohort study sought to understand the recovery trajectory of this injury over five years. Methods. Eligible patients at a level I trauma centre were recruited into a longitudinal registry of surgical acetabular fractures between June 2004 and August 2019. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), including the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) physical component summary (PCS), were recorded at baseline pre-injury recall and six months, one year, two years, and five years postoperatively. Comparative analyses were performed for elementary and associated fracture patterns. The proportion of patients achieving minimal clinically important difference (MCID) was determined. The rate of, and time to, conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) was also established. Results. We recruited 251 patients (253 fractures), with a 4:1 male to female ratio and mean age of 46.1 years (SD 16.4). Associated fracture patterns accounted for 56.5% of fractures (n = 143). Trajectory analysis showed all timepoints had significant disability versus baseline, including final follow-up (p < 0.001). Elementary fractures had higher SF-36 PCS at six months (p = 0.023) and one year (p = 0.007) compared to associated fractures, but not at two years (p = 0.135) or five years (p = 0.631). The MCID in SF-36 PCS was observed in 37.3% of patients (69/185) between six months and one year, 26.9% of patients (39/145) between one and two years, and 23.3% of patients (20/86) between two and five years, highlighting the long recovery potential of these injuries. A significant proportion of patients failed to attain the MCID after five years (38.1%; 40/105). Conversion to THA occurred in 13.1% of patients (11/110 elementary and 22/143 associated fractures). Approximately two-thirds of THAs (21/33 patients; 63.6%) were performed within two years of index surgery. Conclusion. Acetabular fractures significantly impact physical function. Recovery trajectory is often elongated beyond one year, with two-thirds of our patients displaying persistent clinically relevant long-term disability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):69–76

Aims. To determine if patient ethnicity among patients with a hip fracture influences the type of fracture, surgical care, and outcome. Methods. This was an observational cohort study using a linked dataset combining data from the National Hip Fracture Database and Hospital Episode Statistics in England and Wales. Patients’ odds of dying at one year were modelled using logistic regression with adjustment for ethnicity and clinically relevant covariates. Results. A total of 563,640 patients were included between 1 April 2011 and 1 October 2020. Of these, 476,469 (85%) had a coded ethnicity for analysis. Non-white patients tended to be younger (mean 81.2 vs 83.0 years), and were more commonly male (34.9% vs 28.5%; p < 0.001). They were less likely to be admitted from institutional care (12.9% vs 21.8%; p < 0.001), to have normal cognition (53.3% vs 62.0%; p < 0.001), and to be free of comorbidities (22.0% vs 26.8%; p < 0.001), but were more likely to be from the most deprived areas (29.4% vs 17.3%; p < 0.001). Non-white patients were more likely to experience delay to surgery for medical reasons (14.8% vs 12.7%; p < 0.001), more likely to be treated with an intramedullary nail or a sliding hip screw (52.5% vs 45.1%; p < 0.001), and less likely to be mobilized by the day after surgery (74.3% vs 79.0%; p < 0.001). Mortality was higher among non-white inpatients (9.2% vs 8.4% for white), but was lower at one year after hip fracture (26.6% vs 30.3%). Conclusion. Our study identified serious problems with the quality of NHS ethnicity data. Despite this, we have shown that there is complex variation in case-mix and hip fracture morphology between ethnic groups. We have also identified variations in care received between ethnic groups, and that disparities in healthcare may contribute to poorer outcome. Inpatient mortality is higher in non-white patients, although this finding reverses after discharge, and one-year mortality is lower. Patients from ethnic minority backgrounds experience disparities in healthcare, however at one year postoperatively non-white patients have a statistically significant lower mortality after controlling for relevant clinical covariates. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1182–1189

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability, against an accepted international standard, of a linked hip fracture registry and routinely collected administrative dataset in England to embed and deliver randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods. First, a bespoke cohort of individuals sustaining hip fractures between 2011 and 2016 was generated from the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) and linked to individual Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) records and mortality data. Second, in order to explore the availability and distribution of outcomes available in linked HES-Office of National Statistics (ONS) data, a more contemporary cohort with incident hip fracture was identified within HES between January 2014 and December 2018. Distributions of the outcomes within the HES-ONS dataset were reported using standard statistical summaries; descriptive characteristics of the NHFD and linked HES-ONS dataset were reported in line with the Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative recommendations for registry-enabled trials. Results. Case ascertainment of the NHFD likely exceeds 94%. The assessment of the robustness, relevance, and reliability of the datasets was favourable. Outcomes from the HES-ONS dataset were concordant with other contemporaneous prospective cohort studies with bespoke data collection frameworks. Conclusion. Our findings support the feasibility of the NHFD and HES-ONS to support a registry-embedded, data-enabled RCT. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2025;107-B(2):229–238

Aims. To assess the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compares three treatments for acetabular fractures in older patients: surgical fixation, surgical fixation and hip arthroplasty (fix-and-replace), and non-surgical treatment. Methods. Patients were recruited from seven UK NHS centres and randomized to a three-arm pilot trial if aged older than 60 years and had a displaced acetabular fracture. Feasibility outcomes included patients’ willingness to participate, clinicians’ capability to recruit, and dropout rates. The primary clinical outcome measure was the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) at six months. Secondary outcomes were Oxford Hip Score, Disability Rating Index, blood loss, and radiological and mobility assessments. Results. Between December 2017 and December 2019, 60 patients were recruited (median age 77.4 years, range 63.3 to 88.5) (39/21 M/F ratio). At final nine-month follow-up, 4/60 (7%) had withdrawn, 4/60 (7%) had died, and one had been lost to follow-up; a 98% response rate (50/51) was achieved for the EQ-5D questionnaire. Four deaths were recorded during the three-year trial period: three in the non-surgical treatment group and one in the fix-and-replace group. Conclusion. This study has shown a full-scale RCT to be feasible, but will need international recruitment. The Acetabular Fractures in older patients Intervention Trial (AceFIT) has informed the design of a multinational RCT sample size of 1,474 or 1,974 patients for a minimal clinically important difference of 0.06 on EQ-5D, with a power of 0.8 or 0.9, and loss to follow-up of 20%. This observed patient cohort comprises a medically complex group requiring multidisciplinary care; surgeon, anaesthetist, and ortho-geriatrician input is needed to optimize recovery and rehabilitation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):401–411

Aims. The aims of this study, using a porcine model of multiple trauma, were to investigate the expression of microRNAs at the fracture site, in the fracture haematoma (fxH) and in the fractured bone, compared with a remote unfractured long bone, to characterize the patterns of expression of circulating microRNAs in plasma, and identify and validate messenger RNA (mRNA) targets of the microRNAs. Methods. Two multiple trauma treatment strategies were compared: early total care (ETC) and damage control orthopaedics (DCO). For this study, fxH, fractured bone, unfractured control bone, plasma, lung, and liver samples were harvested. MicroRNAs were analyzed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction arrays, and the identified mRNA targets were validated in vivo in the bone, fxH, lung, and liver tissue. Results. MicroRNA expression was associated with the trauma treatment strategy and differed depending on the type of sample. In the ETC group, a more advanced fracture healing response, as reflected by the expression of osteogenic microRNAs, was seen compared with the DCO group. DCO treatment resulted in a more balanced immune response in the systemic circulation as represented by significant upregulations of several anti-inflammatory microRNAs. The in vivo validation of the abundance of putative mRNA targets reflected the levels of microRNAs which were identified. Conclusion. Local and systemic microRNA patterns of expression were identified, specific for the treatment strategy in multiple trauma, which corresponded with the expression of mRNA at the fracture site and in target organs. These findings match clinical observations and offer insights into the cellular communication which may underlie the effects of using different surgical strategies in patients with multiple trauma, both locally and systemically. We also identified a systemic involvement of microRNAs in multiple trauma which may include distant cellular communication between injured tissues. Further research may further describe the temporospatial role of circulating microRNAs after multiple trauma, their potential role in communication between organs, and prospective therapeutic applications. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2025;107-B(2):193–203

Aims. The purpose of this study was to develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for fracture detection, classification, and identification of greater tuberosity displacement ≥ 1 cm, neck-shaft angle (NSA) ≤ 100°, shaft translation, and articular fracture involvement, on plain radiographs. Methods. The CNN was trained and tested on radiographs sourced from 11 hospitals in Australia and externally validated on radiographs from the Netherlands. Each radiograph was paired with corresponding CT scans to serve as the reference standard based on dual independent evaluation by trained researchers and attending orthopaedic surgeons. Presence of a fracture, classification (non- to minimally displaced; two-part, multipart, and glenohumeral dislocation), and four characteristics were determined on 2D and 3D CT scans and subsequently allocated to each series of radiographs. Fracture characteristics included greater tuberosity displacement ≥ 1 cm, NSA ≤ 100°, shaft translation (0% to < 75%, 75% to 95%, > 95%), and the extent of articular involvement (0% to < 15%, 15% to 35%, or > 35%). Results. For detection and classification, the algorithm was trained on 1,709 radiographs (n = 803), tested on 567 radiographs (n = 244), and subsequently externally validated on 535 radiographs (n = 227). For characterization, healthy shoulders and glenohumeral dislocation were excluded. The overall accuracy for fracture detection was 94% (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.98) and for classification 78% (AUC 0.68 to 0.93). Accuracy to detect greater tuberosity fracture displacement ≥ 1 cm was 35.0% (AUC 0.57). The CNN did not recognize NSAs ≤ 100° (AUC 0.42), nor fractures with ≥ 75% shaft translation (AUC 0.51 to 0.53), or with ≥ 15% articular involvement (AUC 0.48 to 0.49). For all objectives, the model’s performance on the external dataset showed similar accuracy levels. Conclusion. CNNs proficiently rule out proximal humerus fractures on plain radiographs. Despite rigorous training methodology based on CT imaging with multi-rater consensus to serve as the reference standard, artificial intelligence-driven classification is insufficient for clinical implementation. The CNN exhibited poor diagnostic ability to detect greater tuberosity displacement ≥ 1 cm and failed to identify NSAs ≤ 100°, shaft translations, or articular fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1348–1360

Aims. The aim of the study was to apply 3D measurements for fracture displacement in minimally to moderately displaced acetabular fractures treated nonoperatively, and to evaluate whether this measurement can be used to estimate the likelihood of conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) at follow-up. Methods. A multicentre, cross-sectional study was performed on 144 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in four level 1 trauma centres between January 2000 and December 2020. For each patient, fracture displacement was measured on CT-based 3D models. The 3D gap area represents fracture displacement (mm. 2. ) between all fracture fragments. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to determine a 3D gap area threshold representing the optimal sensitivity and specificity to predict conversion to THA. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors of conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 144 patients, 18 (12%) received a THA. The median 3D gap area of the complete study cohort was 692 mm. 2. (IQR 216 to 1,400). Native hip survival in patients with a gap area threshold ≤ 1,171 or > 1,171 mm. 2. differed at one-year (98% vs 85%), two-year (96% vs 77%), and five-year follow-up (92% vs 73%). 3D gap area > 1,171 mm. 2. (hazard ratio (HR) 4.3; 95% CI 1.7 to 11.0) and the presence of osteoarthritis grade 2 or higher (HR 3.1; 95% CI 1.2 to 7.8) independently predicted the likelihood of conversion to THA during follow-up. Conclusion. For nonoperatively treated acetabular fractures, introducing 3D gap area assessment to measure fracture displacement offers a promising approach for assessing the risk of conversion to THA. With the introduction of (semi-)automatic segmentation and measurement techniques, or their implementation into commercially available software, this 3D gap area measurement can serve as an addition to the Letournel classification and an alternative to traditional 2D gap and step-off measurements, improving accuracy, reproducibility, and applicability in clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2025;107-B(2):204–212