The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was
developed to assess the risk of death following a fracture of the
hip, based on pre-operative patient characteristics. We performed
an independent validation of the NHFS, assessed the degree of geographical
variation that exists between different units within the United
Kingdom and attempted to define a NHFS level that is associated
with high risk of mortality. The NHFS was calculated retrospectively for consecutive patients
presenting with a fracture of the hip to two hospitals in England.
The observed 30-day mortality for each NHFS cohort was compared
with that predicted by the NHFS using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test.
The distribution of NHFS in the observed group was compared with
data from other hospitals in the United Kingdom. The proportion
of patients identified as high risk and the mortality within the
high risk group were assessed for groups defined using different
thresholds for the NHFS. In all 1079 hip fractures were included in the analysis, with
a mean age of 83 years (60 to 105), 284 (26%) male. Overall 30-day
mortality was 7.3%. The NHFS was a significant predictor of 30-day
mortality. Statistically significant differences in the distribution
of the NHFS were present between different units in England (p <
0.001). A NHFS ≥ 6 appears to be an appropriate cut-point to identify
patients at high risk of mortality following a fracture of the hip. Cite this article:
