Aims. This study identifies early risk factors for symptomatic nonunion of displaced midshaft fractures of the clavicle that aid identification of an at risk group who may benefit from surgery. . Methods . We performed a retrospective study of 88 patients aged between 16 and 60 years that were managed non-operatively. . Results . The rate of symptomatic nonunion requiring surgery was 14% (n = 13). Smoking (odds ratio (OR) 40.76, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.38 to 120.30) and the six week Disabilities of the Arm Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.22, for each point increase) were independent predictors of nonunion. A six week DASH score of 35 or more was identified as a threshold value to predict nonunion using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Smoking and the threshold value in the DASH and were additive risk factors for nonunion, when neither were present the risk of nonunion was 2%, if one or the other were present the nonunion rate was between 17% to 20%, and if both were present the rate increased to 44%. Discussion. Patients with either of these risk factors, which include approximately half of all patients sustaining displaced midshaft fractures of the clavicle, are at an increased risk of developing a symptomatic non-union. Take home message: Smoking and failure of functional return at six weeks are significant predictors of nonunion of the midshaft of the clavicle. Such patients warrant further investigation as to whether they would benefit from early surgical fixation in order to avoid the morbidity of a nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:125–30

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. Hip arthroscopy has gained prominence as a primary surgical intervention for symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). This study aimed to identify radiological features, and their combinations, that predict the outcome of hip arthroscopy for FAI. Methods. A prognostic cross-sectional cohort study was conducted involving patients from a single centre who underwent hip arthroscopy between January 2013 and April 2021. Radiological metrics measured on conventional radiographs and magnetic resonance arthrography were systematically assessed. The study analyzed the relationship between these metrics and complication rates, revision rates, and patient-reported outcomes. Results. Out of 810 identified hip arthroscopies, 359 hips were included in the study. Radiological risk factors associated with unsatisfactory outcomes after cam resection included a dysplastic posterior wall, Tönnis grade 2 or higher, and over-correction of the α angle. The presence of acetabular retroversion and dysplasia were also significant predictors for worse surgical outcomes. Notably, over-correction of both cam and pincer deformities resulted in poorer outcomes than under-correction. Conclusion. We recommend caution in performing hip arthroscopy in patients who have three positive acetabular retroversion signs. Acetabular dysplasia with a lateral centre-edge angle of less than 20° should not be treated with isolated hip arthroscopy. Acetabular rim-trimming should be avoided in patients with borderline dysplasia, and care should be taken to avoid over-correction of a cam deformity and/or pincer deformity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):775–782

Aims. The preoperative grading of chondrosarcomas of bone that accurately predicts surgical management is difficult for surgeons, radiologists, and pathologists. There are often discrepancies in grade between the initial biopsy and the final histology. Recent advances in the use of imaging methods have shown promise in the ability to predict the final grade. The most important clinical distinction is between grade 1 chondrosarcomas, which are amenable to curettage, and resection-grade chondrosarcomas (grade 2 and 3) which require en bloc resection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a Radiological Aggressiveness Score (RAS) to predict the grade of primary chondrosarcomas in long bones and thus to guide management. Methods. A total of 113 patients with a primary chondrosarcoma of a long bone presenting between January 2001 and December 2021 were identified on retrospective review of a single oncology centre’s prospectively collected database. The nine-parameter RAS included variables from radiographs and MRI scans. The best cut-off of parameters to predict the final grade of chondrosarcoma after resection was determined using a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and this was correlated with the biopsy grade. Results. A RAS of ≥ four parameters was 97.9% sensitive and 90.5% specific in predicting resection-grade chondrosarcoma based on a ROC cut-off derived using the Youden index. Cronbach’s α of 0.897 was derived as the interclass correlation for scoring the lesions by four blinded reviewers who were surgeons. Concordance between resection-grade lesions predicted from the RAS and ROC cut-off with the final grade after resection was 96.46%. Concordance between the biopsy grade and the final grade was 63.8%. However, when the patients were analyzed based on surgical management, the initial biopsy was able to differentiate low-grade from resection-grade chondrosarcomas in 82.9% of biopsies. Conclusion. These findings suggest that the RAS is an accurate method for guiding the surgical management of patients with these tumours, particularly when the initial biopsy results are discordant with the clinical presentation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):808–814

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of a patient-specific algorithm which we developed for predicting changes in sagittal pelvic tilt after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. This retrospective study included 143 patients who underwent 171 THAs between April 2019 and October 2020 and had full-body lateral radiographs preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. We measured the pelvic incidence (PI), the sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt, sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), and thoracic kyphosis to classify patients into types A, B1, B2, B3, and C. The change of pelvic tilt was predicted according to the normal range of SVA (0 mm to 50 mm) for types A, B1, B2, and B3, and based on the absolute value of one-third of the PI-LL mismatch for type C patients. The reliability of the classification of the patients and the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were assessed using kappa values and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), respectively. Validity was assessed using the overall mean error and mean absolute error (MAE) for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt. Results. The kappa values were 0.927 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.861 to 0.992) and 0.945 (95% CI 0.903 to 0.988) for the inter- and intraobserver reliabilities, respectively, and the ICCs ranged from 0.919 to 0.997. The overall mean error and MAE for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were -0.3° (SD 3.6°) and 2.8° (SD 2.4°), respectively. The overall absolute change of pelvic tilt was 5.0° (SD 4.1°). Pre- and postoperative values and changes in pelvic tilt, SVA, SS, and LL varied significantly among the five types of patient. Conclusion. We found that the proposed algorithm was reliable and valid for predicting the standing pelvic tilt after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):19–27

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Several studies have reported the rate of post-operative mortality after the surgical treatment of a fracture of the hip, but few data are available regarding the delayed morbidity. In this prospective study, we identified 568 patients who underwent surgery for a fracture of the hip and who were followed for one year. Multivariate analysis was carried out to identify possible predictors of mortality and morbidity. The 30-day, four-month and one-year rates of mortality were 4.3%, 11.4%, and 18.8%, respectively. General complications and pre-operative comorbidities represented the basic predictors of mortality at any time interval (p < 0.01). In-hospital, four-month and one-year general complications occurred in 29.4%, 18.6% and 6.7% of patients, respectively. After adjusting for confounding variables, comorbidities and poor cognitive status determined the likelihood of early and delayed general complications, respectively (p < 0.001). Operative delay was the main predictor of the length of hospital stay (p < 0.001) and was directly related to in-hospital (p = 0.017) and four-month complications (p = 0.008). Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:383–90

Aims. The aims of this study were to validate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) thresholds for Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index (WOSI), Rowe score, American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES), and visual analogue scale (VAS) scores following arthroscopic Bankart repair, and to identify preoperative threshold values of these scores that could predict the achievement of MCID and PASS. Methods. A retrospective review was conducted on 131 consecutive patients with anterior shoulder instability who underwent arthroscopic Bankart repair between January 2020 and January 2023. Inclusion criteria required at least one episode of shoulder instability and a minimum follow-up period of 12 months. Preoperative and one-year postoperative scores were assessed. MCID and PASS were estimated using distribution-based and anchor-based methods, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined preoperative patient-reported outcome measure thresholds predictive of achieving MCID and PASS. Results. MCID thresholds were determined as 169.6, 6.8, 7.2, and 1.1 for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS, respectively. PASS thresholds were calculated as ≤ 480, ≥ 80, ≥ 87, and ≤ 1 for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS, respectively. Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 760 (WOSI) and ≤ 50 (Rowe) predicted achieving MCID for WOSI score (p < 0.001). Preoperative thresholds of ≤ 60 (ASES) and ≥ 2 (VAS) predicted achieving MCID for VAS score (p < 0.001). A preoperative threshold of ≥ 40 (Rowe) predicted achieving PASS for Rowe score (p = 0.005). Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 50 (ASES; p = 0.002) and ≤ 2 (VAS; p < 0.001) predicted achieving PASS for the ASES score. Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 43 (ASES; p = 0.046) and ≤ 4 (VAS; p = 0.024) predicted achieving PASS for the VAS. Conclusion. This study defined MCID and PASS values for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS scores in patients undergoing arthroscopic Bankart repair. Higher preoperative functional scores may reduce the likelihood of achieving MCID but increase the likelihood of achieving the PASS. These findings provide valuable guidance for surgeons to counsel patients realistically regarding their expectations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1118–1124

Aims. Periprosthetic fractures (PPFs) around the knee are challenging injuries. This study aims to describe the characteristics of knee PPFs and the impact of patient demographics, fracture types, and management modalities on in-hospital mortality. Methods. Using a multicentre study design, independent of registry data, we included adult patients sustaining a PPF around a knee arthroplasty between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. Univariate, then multivariable, logistic regression analyses were performed to study the impact of patient, fracture, and treatment on mortality. Results. Out of a total of 1,667 patients in the PPF study database, 420 patients were included. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.4%. Multivariable analyses suggested that American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, history of peripheral vascular disease (PVD), history of rheumatic disease, fracture around a loose implant, and cerebrovascular accident (CVA) during hospital stay were each independently associated with mortality. Each point increase in ASA grade independently correlated with a four-fold greater mortality risk (odds ratio (OR) 4.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 14.06); p = 0.026). Patients with PVD have a nine-fold increase in mortality risk (OR 9.1 (95% CI 1.25 to 66.47); p = 0.030) and patients with rheumatic disease have a 6.8-fold increase in mortality risk (OR 6.8 (95% CI 1.32 to 34.68); p = 0.022). Patients with a fracture around a loose implant (Unified Classification System (UCS) B2) have a 20-fold increase in mortality, compared to UCS A1 (OR 20.9 (95% CI 1.61 to 271.38); p = 0.020). Mode of management was not a significant predictor of mortality. Patients managed with revision arthroplasty had a significantly longer length of stay (median 16 days; p = 0.029) and higher rates of return to theatre, compared to patients treated nonoperatively or with fixation. Conclusion. The mortality rate in PPFs around the knee is similar to that for native distal femur and neck of femur fragility fractures. Patients with certain modifiable risk factors should be optimized. A national PPF database and standardized management guidelines are currently required to understand these complex injuries and to improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):158–165

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. The aims of this study were to determine if an increasing serum cobalt (Co) and/or chromium (Cr) concentration is correlated with a decreasing Harris Hip Score (HHS) and Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) in patients who received the Articular Surface Replacement (ASR) hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA), and to evaluate the ten-year revision rate and show if sex, inclination angle, and Co level influenced the revision rate. Methods. A total of 62 patients with an ASR-HRA were included and monitored yearly postoperatively. At follow-up, serum Co and Cr levels were measured and the HHS and the HOOS were scored. In addition, preoperative patient and implant variables and the need for revision surgery were recorded. We used a linear mixed model to relate the serum Co and Cr levels to different patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). For the survival analyses we used the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression model. Results. We found that an increase of one part per billion (ppb) in serum Co and Cr levels correlated significantly with worsening of the HHS in the following year. This significant correlation was also true for the HOOS-Pain and HOOS-quality of life sub scores. The overall ten-year survival rate in our cohort was 65% (95% confidence interval (CI) 52.5 to 77.6). Cox regression analysis showed a significant hazard ratio (HR) of 1.08 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.15; p = 0.028) for serum Co level. No significance was found with sex or inclination angle. Conclusion. This study shows that increasing serum Co and Cr levels measured in patients with an ASR-HRA are predictive for deterioration in HHS and HOOS subscales in the following year. Increasing serum Co and Cr should forewarn both surgeon and patient that there is a heightened risk of failure. Continued and regular review of patients with an ASR-HRA implant by measurement of serum Co/Cr levels and PROMs remains essential. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):775–782

Aims. Intra-articular (IA) tumours around the knee are treated with extra-articular (EA) resection, which is associated with poor functional outcomes. We aim to evaluate the accuracy of MRI in predicting IA involvement around the knee. Methods. We identified 63 cases of high-grade sarcomas in or around the distal femur that underwent an EA resection from a prospectively maintained database (January 1996 to April 2020). Suspicion of IA disease was noted in 52 cases, six had IA pathological fracture, two had an effusion, two had prior surgical intervention (curettage/IA intervention), and one had an osseous metastasis in the proximal tibia. To ascertain validity, two musculoskeletal radiologists (R1, R2) reviewed the preoperative imaging (MRI) of 63 consecutive cases on two occasions six weeks apart. The radiological criteria for IA disease comprised evidence of tumour extension within the suprapatellar pouch, intercondylar notch, extension along medial/lateral retinaculum, and presence of IA fracture. The radiological predictions were then confirmed with the final histopathology of the resected specimens. Results. The resection histology revealed 23 cases (36.5%) showing IA disease involvement compared with 40 cases without (62%). The intraobserver variability of R1 was 0.85 (p < 0.001) compared to R2 with κ = 0.21 (p = 0.007). The interobserver variability was κ = 0.264 (p = 0.003). Knee effusion was found to be the most sensitive indicator of IA involvement, with a sensitivity of 91.3% but specificity of only 35%. However, when combined with a pathological fracture, this rose to 97.5% and 100% when disease was visible in Hoffa’s fat pad. Conclusion. MRI imaging can sometimes overestimate IA joint involvement and needs to be correlated with clinical signs. In the light of our findings, we would recommend EA resections when imaging shows effusion combined with either disease in Hoffa’s fat pad or retinaculum, or pathological fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):696–701

Aims. The most important complication of treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head, which can result in proximal femoral growth disturbances leading to pain, dysfunction, and eventually to early onset osteoarthritis. In this study, we aimed to identify morphological variants in hip joint development that are predictive of a poor outcome. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed all patients who developed AVN after DDH treatment, either by closed and/or open reduction, at a single institution between 1984 and 2007 with a minimal follow-up of eight years. Standard pelvis radiographs obtained at ages one, two, three, five, and eight years, and at latest follow-up were retrieved. The Bucholz-Ogden classification was used to determine the type of AVN on all radiographs. Poor outcome was defined by Severin classification grade 3 or above on the latest follow-up radiographs and/or the need for secondary surgery. With statistical shape modelling, we identified the different shape variants of the hip at each age. Logistic regression analysis was used to associate the different modes or shape variants with poor outcome. Results. In all, 135 patients with AVN were identified, with a minimum of eight years of follow-up. Mean age at time of surgery was 7.0 months (SD 0.45), and mean follow-up was 13.3 years (SD 3.7). Overall, 46% had AVN type 1 while 54% type 2 or higher. More than half of the patients (52.6%) had a poor outcome. We found 11 shape variants that were significantly associated with a poor outcome. These shape variants were predominantly linked to AVN type 2 or higher. Conclusion. Specific morphological characteristics on pelvis radiographs of AVN hips were predictive for poor outcome, at a very young age. There was an overall stronger association to Bucholz-Ogden types 2-3-4 with the exception of two modes at age two and five years, linked to AVN type 1. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(5):999–1004

Aims. Surgical site infection (SSI) after soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) resection is a serious complication. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the risk factors for SSI after STS resection, and to develop a nomogram that allows patient-specific risk assessment. Methods. A total of 547 patients with STS who underwent tumour resection between 2005 and 2021 were divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort. In the development cohort of 402 patients, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to screen possible risk factors of SSI. To select risk factors and construct the prediction nomogram, multivariate logistic regression was used. The predictive power of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis in the validation cohort of 145 patients. Results. LASSO regression analysis selected possible risk factors for SSI, including age, diabetes, operating time, skin graft or flap, resected tumour size, smoking, and radiation therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, diabetes, smoking during the previous year, operating time, and radiation therapy were independent risk factors for SSI. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the development cohort, the incidence of SSI was 4.5% in the low-risk group (risk score < 6.89) and 26.6% in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 6.89; p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the incidence of SSI was 2.0% in the low-risk group and 15.9% in the high-risk group (p = 0.004). Conclusion. Our nomogram will enable surgeons to assess the risk of SSI in patients with STS. In patients with high risk of SSI, frequent monitoring and aggressive interventions should be considered to prevent this. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):492–500

Aims. Hip fractures are some of the most common fractures encountered in orthopaedic practice. We aimed to identify whether perioperative hypotension is a predictor of 30-day mortality, and to stratify patient groups that would benefit from closer monitoring and early intervention. While there is literature on intraoperative blood pressure, there are limited studies examining pre- and postoperative blood pressure. Methods. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a one-year period from December 2021 to December 2022. Patient demographic details, biochemical results, and haemodynamic observations were taken from electronic medical records. Statistical analysis was conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, and the effects of independent variables estimated with the Wald statistic. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were estimated with the log-rank test. Results. A total of 528 patients were identified as suitable for inclusion. On multivariate analysis, postoperative hypotension of a systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 90 mmHg two to 24 hours after surgery showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for 30-day mortality (HR 4.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3 to 8.9); p < 0.001) and was an independent risk factor accounting for sex (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4 to 5.2); p = 0.003), age (HR 1.1 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.1); p = 0.016), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.6); p < 0.001), time to theatre > 24 hours (HR 2.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.2); p = 0.025), and preoperative anaemia (HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 5.2); p = 0.043). A preoperative SBP of < 120 mmHg was close to achieving significance (HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.6); p = 0.052). Conclusion. Our study is the first to demonstrate that postoperative hypotension within the first 24 hours is an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery. Clinicians should recognize patients who have a SBP of < 90 mmHg in the early postoperative period, and be aware of the increased mortality risk in this specific cohort who may benefit from a closer level of monitoring and early intervention. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):189–194

Aims. Neither a surgeon’s intraoperative impression nor the parameters of computer navigation have been shown to be predictive of the outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aim of this study was to determine whether a surgeon, with robotic assistance, can predict the outcome as assessed using the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) for pain (KPS), one year postoperatively, and establish what factors correlate with poor KOOS scores in a well-aligned and balanced TKA. Methods. A total of 134 consecutive patients who underwent TKA using a dynamic ligament tensioning robotic system with a tibia first resection technique and a cruciate sacrificing ultracongruent TKA system were enrolled into a prospective study. Each TKA was graded based on the final mediolateral ligament balance at 10° and 90° of flexion: 1) < 1 mm difference in the thickness of the tibial insert and that which was planned (n = 75); 2) < 1 mm difference (n = 26); 3) between 1 mm to 2 mm difference (n = 26); and 4) > 2 mm difference (n = 7). The mean one-year KPS score for each grade of TKA was compared and the likelihood of achieving an KPS score of > 90 was calculated. Finally, the factors associated with lower KPS despite achieving a high-grade TKA (grade A and B) were analyzed. Results. Patients with a grade of A or B TKA had significantly higher mean one-year KPS scores compared with those with C or D grades (p = 0.031). There was no difference in KPS scores in grade A or B TKAs, but 33% of these patients did not have a KPS score of > 90. While there was no correlation with age, sex, preoperative deformity, and preoperative KOOS and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) physical scores, patients with a KPS score of < 90, despite a grade A or B TKA, had lower PROMIS mental health scores compared with those with KPS scores of > 90 (54.1 vs 50.8; p = 0.043). Patients with grade A and B TKAs with KPS > 90 were significantly more likely to respond with “my expectations were too low”, and with “the knee is performing better than expected” compared with patients with these grades of TKA who had a KPS score of < 90 (40% vs 22%; p = 0.004). Conclusion. A TKA balanced with robotic assistance to within 1 mm of difference between the medial and lateral sides in both flexion and extension had a higher KPS score one year postoperatively. Despite accurate ligament balance information, a robotic system could not guarantee excellent pain relief. Patient expectations and mental status also significantly affected the perceived success of TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6 Supple A):67–73

Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the prediction of adverse outcome after hip fracture. Methods. Of 1,577 consecutive patients aged > 65 years with a fragility hip fracture admitted to one institution, for whom there were complete data, 1,255 (72%) were studied. Clinicians assigned CFS scores on admission. Audit personnel routinely prospectively completed the Standardised Audit of Hip Fracture in Europe form, including the following outcomes: 30-day survival; in-hospital complications; length of acute hospital stay; and new institutionalization. The relationship between the CFS scores and outcomes was examined graphically and the visual interpretations were tested statistically. The predictive values of the CFS and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality were compared using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results. Significant non-linear associations between CFS and outcomes were observed. Risk of death within 30 days rose linearly for CFS 1 to 5, but plateaued for CFS > 5. The incidence of complications and length of stay rose linearly for CFS 1 to 4, but plateaued for CFS > 4. In contrast, the risk of new institutionalization rose linearly for CFS 1 to 8. The AUCs for 30-day mortality for the CFS and NHFS were very similar: CFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69) and NHFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69). Conclusion. Use of the CFS may provide useful information on outcomes for fitter patients presenting with hip fracture, but completion of the CFS by the admitting orthopaedic team does not appear successful in distinguishing between higher CFS categories, which define patients with frailty. This makes a strong case for the role of the orthogeriatrician in the early assessment of these patients. Further work is needed to understand why patients assessed as being of mild, moderate, and severe frailty do not result in different outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):980–986

Aims. The Uppföljningsprogram för cerebral pares (CPUP) Hip Score distinguishes between children with cerebral palsy (CP) at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score was constructed using data from Swedish children with CP, but has not been confirmed in any other population. The aim of this study was to determine the calibration and discriminatory accuracy of this score in children with CP in Scotland. Methods. This was a total population-based study of children registered with the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland. Displacement of the hip was defined as a migration percentage (MP) of > 40%. Inclusion criteria were children in Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels III to V. The calibration slope was estimated and Kaplan-Meier curves produced for five strata of CPUP scores to compare the observed with the predicted risk of displacement of the hip at five years. For discriminatory accuracy, the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated. In order to analyze differences in the performance of the score between cohorts, score weights, and subsequently the AUC, were re-estimated using the variables of the original score: the child’s age at the first examination, GMFCS level, head shaft angle, and MP of the worst hip in a logistic regression with imputation of outcomes for those with incomplete follow-up. Results. The discriminatory accuracy of the score in the new population of 367 children was high (AUC 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 0.86)). The calibration of the score was insufficient (slope 0.48 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.65)), and the absolute risks of displacement of the hip in this population were overestimated. The AUC increased with re-estimated weights (0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91)). Conclusion. The CPUP Hip Score had a high ability to discriminate between children at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score overestimated the absolute risks of displacement in this population, which may have resulted from differences in the way children were initially registered in the two programmes. The results are promising, but the score weights may need re-estimation before its clinical application in Scotland. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):640–644

Aims. This study of patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip aimed to: 1) characterize the contribution of the hip, spinopelvic complex, and lumbar spine when moving from the standing to the sitting position; 2) assess whether abnormal spinopelvic mobility is associated with worse symptoms; and 3) identify whether spinopelvic mobility can be predicted from static anatomical radiological parameters. Patients and Methods. A total of 122 patients with end-stage OA of the hip awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA) were prospectively studied. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs; Oxford Hip Score, Oswestry Disability Index, and Veterans RAND 12-Item Health Survey Score) and clinical data were collected. Sagittal spinopelvic mobility was calculated as the change from the standing to sitting position using the lumbar lordosis angle (LL), sacral slope (SS), pelvic tilt (PT), pelvic-femoral angle (PFA), and acetabular anteinclination (AI) from lateral radiographs. The interaction of the different parameters was assessed. PROMs were compared between patients with normal spinopelvic mobility (10° ≤ ∆PT ≤ 30°) or abnormal spinopelvic mobility (stiff: ∆PT < ± 10°; hypermobile: ∆PT > ± 30°). Multiple regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to test for possible predictors of spinopelvic mobility. Results. Standing to sitting, the hip flexed by a mean of 57° (. sd. 17°), the pelvis tilted backwards by a mean of 20° (. sd. 12°), and the lumbar spine flexed by a mean of 20° (. sd. 14°); strong correlations were detected. There was no difference in PROMs between patients in the different spinopelvic mobility groups. Maximum hip flexion, standing PT, and standing AI were independent predictors of spinopelvic mobility (R. 2. = 0.42). The combined thresholds for standing was PT ≥ 13° and hip flexion ≥ 88° in the clinical examination, and had 90% sensitivity and 63% specificity of predicting spinopelvic stiffness, while SS ≥ 42° had 84% sensitivity and 67% specificity of predicting spinopelvic hypermobility. Conclusion. The hip, on average, accounts for three-quarters of the standing-to-sitting movement, but there is great variation. Abnormal spinopelvic mobility cannot be screened with PROMs. However, clinical and standing radiological features can predict spinopelvic mobility with good enough accuracy, allowing them to be used as reliable screening tools. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:902–909

Aims. The outcomes following nonoperative management of minimally displaced greater tuberosity (GT) fractures, and the factors which influence patient experience, remain poorly defined. We assessed the early patient-derived outcomes following these injuries and examined the effect of a range of demographic- and injury-related variables on these outcomes. Methods. In total, 101 patients (53 female, 48 male) with a mean age of 50.9 years (19 to 76) with minimally displaced GT fractures were recruited to a prospective observational cohort study. During the first year after injury, patients underwent experiential assessment using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score and assessment of associated injuries using MRI performed within two weeks of injury. The primary outcome was the one-year DASH score. Multivariate analysis was used to assess the effect of patient demographic factors, complications, and associated injuries, on outcome. Results. The mean DASH score improved from 42.3 (SD 9.6) at six weeks post-injury, to 19.5 (SD 14.3) at one-year follow-up (p < 0.001), but outcomes were mixed, with 30 patients having a DASH score > 30 at one year. MRI revealed a range of associated injuries, with a full-thickness rotator cuff tear present in 19 patients (19%). Overall, 11 patients (11%) developed complications requiring further operative intervention; 20 patients (21%) developed post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness. Multivariate analysis revealed a high-energy mechanism (p = 0.009), tobacco consumption (p = 0.033), use of mobility aids (p = 0.047), a full-thickness rotator cuff tear (p = 0.002), and the development of post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness (p = 0.035) were independent predictors of poorer outcome. Conclusion. The results of nonoperative management of minimally displaced GT fractures are heterogeneous. While many patients have satisfactory early outcomes, a substantial subgroup fare much worse. There is a high prevalence of rotator cuff injuries and post-traumatic shoulder stiffness, and their presence is associated with poorer patient experience. Furthermore, patients who have a high-energy injury, smoke, or use walking aids, have worse outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):534–542

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether the postoperative Oxford Knee Score (OKS) demonstrated a ceiling effect at one and/or two years after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The secondary aim was to identify preoperative independent predictors for patients that achieved a ceiling score after TKA. Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients undergoing a primary TKA were identified from an established arthroplasty database. Patient demographics, body mass index (BMI), OKS, and EuroQoL five-dimension (EQ-5D) general health scores were collected preoperatively and at one and two years postoperatively. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative predictors of patients achieving postoperative ceiling scores. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify a preoperative OKS that predicted a postoperative ceiling score. Results. The ceiling effect was 4.6% (n = 272) at one year which increased significantly (odds ratio (OR) 40.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 30.4 to 53.3; p < 0.001) to 6.2% (n = 363) at two years, when defined as those with a maximal score of 48 points. However, when the ceiling effect was defined as an OKS of 44 points or more, this increased to 26.3% (n = 1,540) at one year and further to 29.8% (n = 1,748) at two years (OR 21.6, 95% CI 18.7 to 25.1; p < 0.001). A preoperative OKS of 23 or more and 22 or more were predictive of achieving a postoperative ceiling OKS at one and two years when defined as a maximal score or a score of 44 or more, respectively. Conclusion. The postoperative OKS demonstrated a small ceiling effect when defined by a maximal score, but when defined by a postoperative OKS of 44 or more the ceiling effect was moderate and failed to meet standards. The preoperative OKS was an independent predictor of achieving a ceiling score. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(11):1519–1526

Aims. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to compare directly volumetric wear of retrieved polyethylene inserts to predicted volumetric wear modelled from individual gait mechanics of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients. Methods. In total, 11 retrieved polyethylene tibial inserts were matched with gait analysis testing performed on those patients. Volumetric wear on the articular surfaces was measured using a laser coordinate measure machine and autonomous reconstruction. Knee kinematics and kinetics from individual gait trials drove computational models to calculate medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact paths and forces. Sliding distance along the contact path, normal forces and implantation time were used as inputs to Archard’s equation of wear to predict volumetric wear from gait mechanics. Measured and modelled wear were compared for each component. Results. Volumetric wear rates on eight non-delaminated components measured 15.9 mm. 3. /year (standard error (SE) ± 7.7) on the total part, 11.4 mm. 3. /year (SE ± 6.4) on the medial side and 4.4 (SE ± 2.6) mm. 3. /year on the lateral side. Volumetric wear rates modelled from patient gait mechanics predicted 16.4 mm. 3. /year (SE 2.4) on the total part, 11.7 mm. 3. /year (SE 2.1) on the medial side and 4.7 mm. 3. /year (SE 0.4) on the lateral side. Measured and modelled wear volumes correlated significantly on the total part (p = 0.017) and the medial side (p = 0.012) but not on the lateral side (p = 0.154). Conclusion. In the absence of delamination, patient-specific knee mechanics during gait directly affect wear of the tibial component in TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6 Supple A):129–137

Aims. To examine whether natural language processing (NLP) using a clinically based large language model (LLM) could be used to predict patient selection for total hip or total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) from routinely available free-text radiology reports. Methods. Data pre-processing and analyses were conducted according to the Artificial intelligence to Revolutionize the patient Care pathway in Hip and knEe aRthroplastY (ARCHERY) project protocol. This included use of de-identified Scottish regional clinical data of patients referred for consideration of THA/TKA, held in a secure data environment designed for artificial intelligence (AI) inference. Only preoperative radiology reports were included. NLP algorithms were based on the freely available GatorTron model, a LLM trained on over 82 billion words of de-identified clinical text. Two inference tasks were performed: assessment after model-fine tuning (50 Epochs and three cycles of k-fold cross validation), and external validation. Results. For THA, there were 5,558 patient radiology reports included, of which 4,137 were used for model training and testing, and 1,421 for external validation. Following training, model performance demonstrated average (mean across three folds) accuracy, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.850 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.833 to 0.867), 0.813 (95% CI 0.785 to 0.841), and 0.847 (95% CI 0.822 to 0.872), respectively. For TKA, 7,457 patient radiology reports were included, with 3,478 used for model training and testing, and 3,152 for external validation. Performance metrics included accuracy, F1 score, and AUROC values of 0.757 (95% CI 0.702 to 0.811), 0.543 (95% CI 0.479 to 0.607), and 0.717 (95% CI 0.657 to 0.778) respectively. There was a notable deterioration in performance on external validation in both cohorts. Conclusion. The use of routinely available preoperative radiology reports provides promising potential to help screen suitable candidates for THA, but not for TKA. The external validation results demonstrate the importance of further model testing and training when confronted with new clinical cohorts. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):688–695

Aims. Open fractures of the tibia are a heterogeneous group of injuries that can present a number of challenges to the treating surgeon. Consequently, few surgeons can reliably advise patients and relatives about the expected outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether these outcomes are predictable by using the Ganga Hospital Score (GHS). This has been shown to be a useful method of scoring open injuries to inform wound management and decide between limb salvage and amputation. Methods. We collected data on 182 consecutive patients with a type II, IIIA, or IIIB open fracture of the tibia who presented to our hospital between July and December 2016. For the purposes of the study, the patients were jointly treated by experienced consultant orthopaedic and plastic surgeons who determined the type of treatment. Separately, the study team (SP, HS, AD, JD) independently calculated the GHS and prospectively collected data on six outcomes for each patient. These included time to bony union, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, total length of treatment, final functional score, and number of operations. Spearman’s correlation was used to compare GHS with each outcome. Forward stepwise linear regression was used to generate predictive models based on components of the GHS. Five-fold cross-validation was used to prevent models from over-fitting. Results. The mean follow-up was 11.4 months (3 to 31). The mean time to union was 9.7 months (3 to 21), the mean number of operations was 2.8 (1 to 11), the mean time in hospital was 17.7 days (5 to 84), the mean length of treatment was 92.7 days (5 to 730), the mean number of admissions was 1.7 (1 to 6), and the mean functional score (Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS)) was 60.13 (33 to 80). There was a significant correlation between the GHS and each of the outcome measures. A predictive model was generated from which the GHS could be used to predict the various outcome measures. Conclusion. The GHS can be used to predict the outcome of patients who present with an open fracture of the tibia. Our model generates a numerical value for each outcome measure that can be used in clinical practice to inform the treating team and to advise patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(1):26–32

Aims. Rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) has been reported to be effective in improving symptoms and preventing osteoarthritis (OA) progression in patients with mild to severe develomental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, some patients develop secondary OA even when the preoperative joint space is normal; determining who will progress to OA is difficult. We evaluated whether the preoperative cartilage condition may predict OA progression following surgery using T2 mapping MRI. Methods. We reviewed 61 hips with early-stage OA in 61 patients who underwent RAO for DDH. They underwent preoperative and five-year postoperative radiological analysis of the hip. Those with a joint space narrowing of more than 1 mm were considered to have 'OA progression'. Preoperative assessment of articular cartilage was also performed using 3T MRI with the T2 mapping technique. The region of interest was defined as the weightbearing portion of the acetabulum and femoral head. Results. There were 16 patients with postoperative OA progression. The T2 values of the centre to the anterolateral region of the acetabulum and femoral head in the OA progression cases were significantly higher than those in patients without OA progression. The preoperative T2 values in those regions were positively correlated with the narrowed joint space width. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the T2 value of the central portion in the acetabulum provided excellent discrimination, with OA progression patients having an area under the curve of 0.858. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed T2 values of the centre to the acetabulum’s anterolateral portion as independent predictors of subsequent OA progression (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This was the first study to evaluate the relationship between intra-articular degeneration using T2 mapping MRI and postoperative OA progression. Our findings suggest that preoperative T2 values of the hip can be better prognostic factors for OA progression than radiological measures following RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1472–1478

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to develop a reliable, effective radiological score to assess the healing of humeral shaft fractures, the Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU). The secondary aim was to assess whether the six-week RUSHU was predictive of nonunion at six months after the injury. Patients and Methods. Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a humeral shaft fracture were selected at random from a trauma database and scored by three observers, based on the Radiographic Union Scale for Tibial fractures system. After refinement of the RUSHU criteria, a second group of 60 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury, 40 with fractures that united and 20 with fractures that developed nonunion, were scored by two blinded observers. Results. After refinement, the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.87), indicating substantial agreement. At six weeks after injury, patients whose fractures united had a significantly higher median score than those who developed nonunion (10 vs 7; p < 0.001). A receiver operating characteristic curve determined that a RUSHU cut-off of < 8 was predictive of nonunion (area under the curve = 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94). The sensitivity was 75% and specificity 80% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65% and a negative predictive value of 86%. Patients with a RUSHU < 8 (n = 23) were more likely to develop nonunion than those with a RUSHU ≥ 8 (n = 37, odds ratio 12.0, 95% CI 3.4 to 42.9). Based on a PPV of 65%, if all patients with a RUSHU < 8 underwent fixation, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.5. Conclusion. The RUSHU is reliable and effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion of a humeral shaft fracture at six weeks after injury. This tool requires external validation but could potentially reduce the morbidity associated with delayed treatment of an established nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1300–1306

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess the rate of patient satisfaction one year after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) according to the focus of the question asked. The secondary aims were to identify independent predictors of patient satisfaction according to the focus of the question. Patients and Methods. A retrospective cohort of 2521 patients undergoing a primary unilateral TKA were identified from an established regional arthroplasty database. Patient demographics, comorbidities, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) scores were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Patient satisfaction was assessed using four questions, which focused on overall outcome, activity, work, and pain. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative predictors of increased stiffness when adjusting for confounding variables. Results. Using patient satisfaction with the overall outcome (n = 2265, 89.8%) as the standard, there was no difference in the rate of satisfaction for pain relief (n = 2277, odds ratio (OR) 0.95, 95% confident intervals (CI) 0.79 to 1.14, p = 0.60), but patients were more likely to be dissatisfied with activities (79.3%, n = 2000/2521, OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.96 to 2.70, p < 0.001) and work (85.8%, n = 2163/2521, OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.75, p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis identified different predictors of satisfaction for each of the focused satisfaction questions. Overall satisfaction was influenced by diabetes (p = 0.03), depression (p = 0.004), back pain (p < 0.001), and SF-12 physical (p = 0.008) and mental (p = 0.01) components. Satisfaction with activities was influenced by depression (p = 0.001), back pain (p < 0.001), WOMAC stiffness score (p = 0.03), and SF-12 physical (p < 0.001) and mental (p < 0.001) components. Satisfaction with work was influenced by depression (p = 0.007), back pain (p < 0.001), WOMAC function (p = 0.04) and stiffness (p = 0.05) scores, and SF-12 physical (p < 0.001) and mental (p < 0.001) components. Satisfaction with pain relief was influenced by diabetes (p < 0.001), back pain (p < 0.001), and SF-12 mental component (p = 0.04). Conclusion. The focus of the satisfaction question significantly influences the rate and the predictors of patient satisfaction after TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:740–8

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the modified three-group Stulberg classification, which is based on the sphericity of the femoral head, in patients with Perthes’ disease. Methods. A total of 88 patients were followed from the time of diagnosis until a mean follow-up of 21 years. Anteroposterior pelvic and frog-leg lateral radiographs were obtained at diagnosis and at follow-up of one, five, and 21 years. At the five- and 21-year follow-up, the femoral heads were classified using a modified three-group Stulberg classification (round, ovoid, or flat femoral head). Further radiological endpoints at long-term follow-up were osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip and the requirement for total hip arthroplasty (THA). Results. There were 71 males (81%) and 17 females. A total of 13 patients had bilateral Perthes’ disease; thus 101 hips were analyzed. At five-year follow-up, 37 hips were round, 38 ovoid, and 26 flat. At that time, 66 hips (65%) were healed and 91 (90%) were skeletally immature. At long-term follow-up, when the mean age of the patients was 28 years (24 to 34), 20 hips had an unsatisfactory outcome (seven had OA and 13 had required THA). There was a strongly significant association between the modified Stulberg classification applied atfive-year follow-up and an unsatisfactory outcome at long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Between the five- and 21-year follow-up, 67 hips (76%) stayed in their respective modified Stulberg group, indicating a strongly significant association between the Stulberg classifications at these follow-ups (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The modified Stulberg classification is a strong predictor of long-term radiological outcome in patients with Perthes’ disease. It can be applied at the healing stage, which is usually reached five years after the diagnosis is made and before skeletal maturity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1815–1820

Aims. We quantitatively compared the 3D bone density distributions on CT scans performed on scaphoid waist fractures subacutely that went on to union or nonunion, and assessed whether 2D CT evaluations correlate with 3D bone density evaluations. Methods. We constructed 3D models from 17 scaphoid waist fracture CTs performed between four to 18 weeks after fracture that did not unite (nonunion group), 17 age-matched scaphoid waist fracture CTs that healed (union group), and 17 age-matched control CTs without injury (control group). We measured the 3D bone density for the distal and proximal fragments relative to the triquetrum bone density and compared findings among the three groups. We then performed bone density measurements using 2D CT and evaluated the correlation with 3D bone densities. We identified the optimal cutoff with diagnostic values of the 2D method to predict nonunion with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results. In the nonunion group, both the distal (100.2%) and proximal (126.6%) fragments had a significantly higher bone density compared to the union (distal: 85.7%; proximal: 108.3%) or control groups (distal: 91.6%; proximal: 109.1%) using the 3D bone density measurement, which were statistically significant for all comparisons. 2D measurements were highly correlated to 3D bone density measurements (Spearman’s correlation coefficient (R) = 0.85 to 0.95). Using 2D measurements, ROC curve analysis revealed the optimal cutoffs of 90.8% and 116.3% for distal and proximal fragments. This led to a sensitivity of 1.00 if either cutoff is met and a specificity of 0.82 when both cutoffs are met. Conclusion. Using 3D modelling software, nonunions were found to exhibit bone density increases in both the distal and proximal fragments in CTs performed between four to 18 weeks after fracture during the course of treatment. 2D bone density measurements using standard CT scans correlate well with 3D models. In patients with scaphoid fractures, CT bone density measurements may be useful in predicting the likelihood of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1200–1209

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether supine flexibility predicts the likelihood of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing brace treatment. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with AIS prescribed with an underarm brace between September 2008 to April 2013 and followed up until 18 years of age or required surgery. Patients with structural proximal curves that preclude underarm bracing, those who were lost to follow-up, and those who had poor compliance to bracing (<16 hours a day) were excluded. The major curve Cobb angle, curve type, and location were measured on the pre-brace standing posteroanterior (PA) radiograph, supine whole spine radiograph, initial in-brace standing PA radiograph, and the post-brace weaning standing PA radiograph. Validation of the previous in-brace Cobb angle regression model was performed. The outcome of curve progression post-bracing was tested using a logistic regression model. The supine flexibility cut-off for curve progression was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. A total of 586 patients with mean age of 12.6 years (SD 1.2) remained for analysis after exclusion. The baseline Cobb angle was similar for thoracic major curves (31.6° (SD 3.8°)) and lumbar major curves (30.3° (SD 3.7°)). Curve progression was more common in the thoracic curves than lumbar curves with mean final Cobb angles of 40.5° (SD 12.5°) and 31.8° (SD 9.8°) respectively. This dataset matched the prediction model for in-brace Cobb angle with less mean absolute error in thoracic curves (0.61) as compared to lumbar curves (1.04). Reduced age and Risser stage, thoracic curves, increased pre-brace Cobb angle, and reduced correction and flexibility rates predicted increased likelihood of curve progression. Flexibility rate of more than 28% has likelihood of preventing curve progression with bracing. Conclusion. Supine radiographs provide satisfactory prediction for in-brace correction and post-bracing curve magnitude. The flexibility of the curve is a guide to determine the likelihood for brace success. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):254–260

Aims. To identify the prevalence of neuropathic pain after lower limb fracture surgery, assess associations with pain severity, quality of life and disability, and determine baseline predictors of chronic neuropathic pain at three and at six months post-injury. Methods. Secondary analysis of a UK multicentre randomized controlled trial (Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma; WHiST) dataset including adults aged 16 years or over following surgery for lower limb major trauma. The trial recruited 1,547 participants from 24 trauma centres. Neuropathic pain was measured at three and six months using the Doleur Neuropathique Questionnaire (DN4); 701 participants provided a DN4 score at three months and 781 at six months. Overall, 933 participants provided DN4 for at least one time point. Physical disability (Disability Rating Index (DRI) 0 to 100) and health-related quality-of-life (EuroQol five-dimension five-level; EQ-5D-5L) were measured. Candidate predictors of neuropathic pain included sex, age, BMI, injury mechanism, concurrent injury, diabetes, smoking, alcohol, analgaesia use pre-injury, index surgery location, fixation type, Injury Severity Score, open injury, and wound care. Results. The median age of the participants was 51 years (interquartile range 35 to 64). At three and six months post-injury respectively, 32% (222/702) and 30% (234/787) had neuropathic pain, 56% (396/702) and 53% (413/787) had chronic pain without neuropathic characteristics, and the remainder were pain-free. Pain severity was higher among those with neuropathic pain. Linear regression analyses found that those with neuropathic pain at six months post-injury had more physical disability (DRI adjusted mean difference 11.49 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.84 to 15.14; p < 0.001) and poorer quality of life (EQ-5D utility -0.15 (95% CI -0.19 to -0.11); p < 0.001) compared to those without neuropathic characteristics. Logistic regression identified that prognostic factors of younger age, current smoker, below knee fracture, concurrent injuries, and regular analgaesia pre-injury were associated with higher odds of post-injury neuropathic pain. Conclusion. Pain with neuropathic characteristics is common after lower limb fracture surgery and persists to six months post-injury. Persistent neuropathic pain is associated with substantially poorer recovery. Further attention to identify neuropathic pain post-lower limb injury, predicting patients at risk, and targeting interventions, is indicated. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1047–1054

Aims. Our aim was to examine the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices, based on administrative data available before surgery, and to establish their predictive value for mortality for patients who underwent hip arthroplasty in the management of a femoral neck fracture. Patients and Methods. We analyzed data from 42 354 patients from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register between 2005 and 2012. Only the first operated hip was included for patients with bilateral arthroplasty. We obtained comorbidity data by linkage from the Swedish National Patient Register, as well as death dates from the national population register. We used univariable Cox regression models to predict mortality based on the comorbidity indices, as well as multivariable regression with age and gender. Predictive power was evaluated by a concordance index, ranging from 0.5 to 1 (with the higher value being the better predictive power). A concordance index less than 0.7 was considered poor. We used bootstrapping for internal validation of the results. Results. The predictive power of mortality was poor for both the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices (concordance indices less than 0.7). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was superior to Elixhauser, and a model with age and gender was superior to both indices. Conclusion. Preoperative comorbidity from administrative data did not predict mortality for patients with a hip fracture treated by arthroplasty. This was true even if association on group level existed

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether it is possible to predict the mortality, and the extent and time of neurological recovery from the time of the onset of symptoms and MRI grade, in patients with the cerebral fat embolism syndrome (CFES). This has not previously been investigated. Methods. The study included 34 patients who were diagnosed with CFES following trauma between 2012 and 2018. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed and the severity graded by MRI. We investigated the rate of mortality, the time and extent of neurological recovery, the time between the injury and the onset of symptoms, the clinical severity of the condition, and the MRI grade. All patients were male with a mean age of 29.7 years (18 to 70). The mean follow-up was 4.15 years (2 to 8), with neurological recovery being assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination. Results. In all, seven who had early-onset CFES (< 24 hours), and a severe Takahashi grade on MRI, died. There was a significant association between the time of onset of neurological signs and mortality (p = 0.035). Mortality was also significantly associated with a severe Takahashi grade (p < 0.001). Among the 27 surviving patients, 26 (96.3%) recovered completely. One (3.7%) had a cognitive deficit. The mean time to recovery was 4.7 weeks (2 to 13), with late recovery aftereight eight weeks being recorded in three patients. Conclusion. There was a significantly increased rate of mortality in patients with CFES who had an early onset of symptoms and a severe grade on MRI. Complete neurological recovery can be expected in most patients with CFES who survive. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):142–149

Aims. Recent improvements in surgical technique and perioperative blood management after total joint replacement (TJR) have decreased rates of transfusion. However, as many surgeons transition to outpatient TJR, obtaining routine postoperative blood tests becomes more challenging. Therefore, we sought to determine if a preoperative outpatient assessment tool that stratifies patients based on numerous medical comorbidities could predict who required postoperative haemoglobin (Hb) measurement. Methods. We performed a prospective study of consecutive unilateral primary total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) and total hip arthroplasties (THAs) performed at a single institution. Prospectively collected data included preoperative and postoperative Hb levels, need for blood transfusion, length of hospital stay, and Outpatient Arthroplasty Risk Assessment (OARA) score. Results. A total of 504 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean age at time of arthroplasty was 65.3 years (SD 10.2). Of the patients, 216 (42.9%) were THAs and 288 (57.1%) were TKAs. Six patients required a blood transfusion postoperatively (1.19%). Transfusion after surgery was associated with lower postoperative day 1 Hb (median of 8.5 (interquartile range (IQR) 7.9 to 8.6) vs 11.3 (IQR 10.4 to 12.2); p < 0.001), longer length of stay (1 day (IQR 1 to 1) vs 2 days (IQR 2 to 3); p < 0.001), higher OARA score (median of 60.0 (IQR 40 to 75) vs 5.0 (IQR 0-35); p = 0.001), and total hip arthroplasty (p < 0.001). All patients who received a transfusion had an OARA score > 34; however, this did not reach statistical significance as a screening threshold. Conclusion. Risk of blood transfusion after primary TJR was uncommon in our series, with an incidence of 1.19%. Transfusion was associated with OARA scores > 60. The OARA score, not American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, reliably identified patients at risk for postoperative blood transfusion. Selective Hb monitoring may result in substantial cost savings in the era of cost containment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):65–70

Aims. A borderline dysplastic hip can behave as either stable or unstable and this makes surgical decision making challenging. While an unstable hip may be best treated by acetabular reorientation, stable hips can be treated arthroscopically. Several imaging parameters can help to identify the appropriate treatment, including the Femoro-Epiphyseal Acetabular Roof (FEAR) index, measured on plain radiographs. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and the sensitivity of FEAR index on MRI compared with its radiological measurement. Patients and Methods. The technique of measuring the FEAR index on MRI was defined and its reliability validated. A retrospective study assessed three groups of 20 patients: an unstable group of ‘borderline dysplastic hips’ with lateral centre edge angle (LCEA) less than 25° treated successfully by periacetabular osteotomy; a stable group of ‘borderline dysplastic hips’ with LCEA less than 25° treated successfully by impingement surgery; and an asymptomatic control group with LCEA between 25° and 35°. The following measurements were performed on both standardized radiographs and on MRI: LCEA, acetabular index, femoral anteversion, and FEAR index. Results. The FEAR index showed excellent intraobserver and interobserver reliability on both MRI and radiographs. The FEAR index was more reliable on radiographs than on MRI. The FEAR index on MRI was lower in the stable borderline group (mean -4.2° (. sd. 9.1°)) compared with the unstable borderline group (mean 7.9° (. sd. 6.8°)). With a FEAR index cut-off value of 2°, 90% of patients were correctly identified as stable or unstable using the radiological FEAR index, compared with 82.5% using the FEAR index on MRI. The FEAR index was a better predictor of instability on plain radiographs than on MRI. Conclusion. The FEAR index measured on MRI is less reliable and less sensitive than the FEAR index measured on radiographs. The cut-off value of 2° for radiological FEAR index predicted hip stability with 90% probability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1578–1584

Aims. The best marker for assessing glycaemic control prior to total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remains unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the utility of fructosamine compared with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in predicting early complications following TKA, and to determine the threshold above which the risk of complications increased markedly. Patients and Methods. This prospective multi-institutional study evaluated primary TKA patients from four academic institutions. Patients (both diabetics and non-diabetics) were assessed using fructosamine and HbA1c levels within 30 days of surgery. Complications were assessed for 12 weeks from surgery and included prosthetic joint infection (PJI), wound complication, re-admission, re-operation, and death. The Youden’s index was used to determine the cut-off for fructosamine and HbA1c associated with complications. Two additional cut-offs for HbA1c were examined: 7% and 7.5% and compared with fructosamine as a predictor for complications. Results. Overall, 1119 patients (441 men, 678 women) were included in the study. Fructosamine level of 293 µmol/l was identified as the optimal cut-off associated with complications. Patients with high fructosamine (> 293 µmol/l) were 11.2 times more likely to develop PJI compared with patients with low fructosamine (p = 0.001). Re-admission and re-operation rates were 4.2 and 4.5 times higher in patients with fructosamine above the threshold (p = 0.005 and p = 0.019, respectively). One patient (1.7%) from the elevated fructosamine group died compared with one patient (0.1%) in the normal fructosamine group (p = 0.10). These complications remained statistically significant in multiple regression analysis. Unlike fructosamine, all three cut-offs for HbA1c failed to show a significant association with complications. Conclusion. Fructosamine is a valid and an excellent predictor of complications following TKA. It better reflects the glycaemic control, has greater predictive power for adverse events, and responds quicker to treatment compared with HbA1c. These findings support the screening of all patients undergoing TKA using fructosamine and in those with a level above 293 µmol/l, the risk of surgery should be carefully weighed against its benefit. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(7 Supple C):3–9

Aims. Our aim was to develop and validate nomograms that would predict the cumulative incidence of sarcoma-specific death (CISSD) and disease progression (CIDP) in patients with localized high-grade primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Methods. The study population consisted of 391 patients from two international sarcoma centres (development cohort) who had undergone definitive surgery for a localized high-grade (histological grade II or III) conventional primary central chondrosarcoma or dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Disease progression captured the first event of either metastasis or local recurrence. An independent cohort of 221 patients from three additional hospitals was used for external validation. Two nomograms were internally and externally validated for discrimination (c-index) and calibration plot. Results. In the development cohort, the CISSD at ten years was 32.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8% to 38.4%). Age at diagnosis, grade, and surgical margin were found to have significant effects on CISSD and CIDP in multivariate analyses. Maximum tumour diameter was also significantly associated with CISSD. In the development cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.743 (95% CI 0.700 to 0.819) and 0.761 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.800), respectively. When applied to the validation cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.839 (95% CI 0.763 to 0.916) and 0.749 (95% CI 0.672 to 0.825), respectively. The calibration plots for these two nomograms demonstrated good fit. Conclusion. Our nomograms performed well on internal and external validation and can be used to predict CISSD and CIDP after resection of localized high-grade conventional primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. They provide a new tool with which clinicians can assess and advise individual patients about their prognosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1752–1759

There is increasing popularity in the use of artificial intelligence and machine-learning techniques to provide diagnostic and prognostic models for various aspects of Trauma & Orthopaedic surgery. However, correct interpretation of these models is difficult for those without specific knowledge of computing or health data science methodology. Lack of current reporting standards leads to the potential for significant heterogeneity in the design and quality of published studies. We provide an overview of machine-learning techniques for the lay individual, including key terminology and best practice reporting guidelines.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1754–1758.

Aims

The aims of this study were to identify means to quantify coronal plane displacement associated with distal radius fractures (DRFs), and to understand their relationship to radial inclination (RI).

The requirement for release of collateral ligaments to achieve a stable, balanced total knee replacement has been reported to arise in about 50% to 100% of procedures. This wide range reflects a lack of standardised quantitative indicators to determine the necessity for a release. Using recent advances in computerised navigation, we describe two navigational predictors which provide quantitative measures that can be used to identify the need for release. The first was the ability to restore the mechanical axis before any bone resection was performed and the second was the discrepancy in the measured medial and lateral joint spaces after the tibial osteotomy, but before any femoral resection. These predictors showed a significant association with the need for collateral ligament release (p < 0.001). The first predictor using the knee stress test in extension showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 98% and the second, the difference between medial and lateral gaps in millimetres, a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 95%. The use of the two navigational predictors meant that only ten of the 93 patients required collateral ligament release to achieve a stable, neutral knee

Aims. The aim of the study was to develop a quantitative scoring system to predict whether a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear was arthroscopically reparable prior to surgery. Patients and Methods. We conducted a retrospective review of the pre-operative MR imaging and surgical records of 87 patients (87 shoulders) who underwent arthroscopic repair of a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear. Patients were divided into two groups, based on the surgical outcome of the repair. Of the 87 patients, 53 underwent complete repair (Group I) and 34 an incomplete repair (Group II). Pre-operative MR images were reviewed to quantify several variables. Between-group differences were evaluated and multiple logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the predictive value of significant variables. The reparability index (RI) was constructed using the odds ratios of significant variables and a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis performed to identify the optimal RI cutoff to differentiate between the two groups. Results. The following variables were identified as independent predictors of arthroscopic reparability: the size of the defect with medial-lateral diameter (cutoff, 4.2 cm) and anterior-posterior diameter (cutoff, 3.7cm); Patte’s grade of muscle atrophy (cutoff, grade 3) and Goutallier grade of fatty degeneration (cutoff, grade 3). An RI cutoff value of 2.5 provided the highest differentiation between groups I and II, with an area under the curve of 0.964, and a sensitivity of 73.5% and specificity of 96.2%. Conclusion. The RI developed in our study may prove to be an efficient clinical scoring system to predict whether a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear is arthroscopically reparable. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1656–61

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to quantify the improvement in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) following total hip arthroplasty (THA), as well as the extent of any deterioration through the seven-year follow-up. The secondary aim was to identify predictors of PROM improvement and deterioration. Patients and Methods. A total of 976 patients were enrolled into a prospective, international, multicentre study. Patients completed a battery of PROMs prior to THA, at three months post-THA, and at one, three, five, and seven-years post-THA. The Harris Hip Score (HHS), the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) Physical Component Summary (PCS), the SF-36 Mental Component Summary (MCS), and the EuroQol five-dimension three-level (EQ-5D) index were the primary outcomes. Longitudinal changes in each PROM were investigated by piece-wise linear mixed effects models. Clinically significant deterioration was defined for each patient as a decrease of one half of a standard deviation (group baseline). Results. Improvements were noted in each PROM between the preoperative and one-year visits, with one-year values exceeding age-matched population norms. Patients with difficulty in self-care experienced less improvement in HHS (odds ratio (OR) 2.2; p = 0.003). Those with anxiety/depression experienced less improvement in PCS (OR -3.3; p = 0.002) and EQ-5D (OR -0.07; p = 0.005). Between one and seven years, obesity was associated with deterioration in HHS (1.5 points/year; p = 0.006), PCS (0.8 points/year; p < 0.001), and EQ-5D (0.02 points/year; p < 0.001). Preoperative difficulty in self-care was associated with deterioration in HHS (2.2 points/year; p < 0.001). Preoperative pain from other joints was associated with deterioration in MCS (0.8 points/year; p < 0.001). All aforementioned factors were associated with clinically significant deterioration in PROMs (p < 0.035), except anxiety/depression with regard to PCS (p = 0.060). Conclusion. The present study finds that patient factors affect the improvement and deterioration in PROMs over the medium term following THA. Special attention should be given to patients with risk factors for decreased PROMs, both preoperatively and during follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:768–778

Aims. In patients with a rotator cuff tear, tear pattern and tendon involvement are known risk factors for the development of pseudoparalysis of the shoulder. It remains unclear, however, why similar tears often have very different functional consequences. The present study hypothesizes that individual shoulder anatomy, specifically the moment arms (MAs) of the rotator cuff (RC) and the deltoid muscle, as well as their relative recruitment during shoulder abduction, plays a central role in pseudoparalysis. Materials and Methods. Biomechanical and clinical analyses of the pseudoparalytic shoulder were conducted based on the ratio of the RC/deltoid MAs, which were used to define a novel anatomical descriptor called the Shoulder Abduction Moment (SAM) index. The SAM index is the ratio of the radii of two concentric spheres based on the centre of rotation of the joint. One sphere captures the humeral head (numerator) and the other the deltoid origin of the acromion (denominator). A computational rigid body simulation was used to establish the functional link between the SAM index and a potential predisposition for pseudoparalysis. A retrospective radiological validation study based on these measures was also undertaken using two cohorts with and without pseudoparalysis and massive RC tears. Results. Decreased RC activity and improved glenohumeral stability was predicted by simulations of SAM indices with larger diameters of the humeral head, being consequently beneficial for joint stability. Clinical investigation of the SAM index showed significant risk of pseudoparalysis in patients with massive tears and a SAM < 0.77 (odds ratio (OR) 11). Conclusion. The SAM index, which represents individual biomechanical characteristics of shoulder morphology, plays a determinant role in the presence or absence of pseudoparalysis in shoulders with massive RC tears

This paper investigates whether cortical comminution and intra-articular involvement can predict displacement in distal radius fractures by using a classification that includes volar comminution as a separate parameter. A prospective multicentre study involving non-operative treatment of distal radius fractures in 387 patients aged between 15 and 74 years (398 fractures) was conducted. The presence of cortical comminution and intra-articular involvement according to the Buttazzoni classification is described. Minimally displaced fractures were treated with immobilisation in a cast while displaced fractures underwent closed reduction with subsequent immobilisation. Radiographs were obtained after reduction, at 10 to 14 days and after union. The outcome measure was re-displacement or union. In fractures with volar comminution (Buttazzoni type 4), 96% (53 of 55) displaced. In intra-articular fractures without volar comminution (Buttazzoni 3), 72% (84 of 117) displaced. In extra-articular fractures with isolated dorsal comminution (Buttazzoni 2), 73% (106 of 145) displaced while in non-comminuted fractures (Buttazzoni 1), 16 % (13 of 81 ) displaced. A total of 32% (53 of 165) of initially minimally displaced fractures later displaced. All of the initially displaced volarly comminuted fractures re-displaced. Displacement occurred in 31% (63 of 205) of fractures that were still in good alignment after 10 to 14 days. . Regression analysis showed that volar and dorsal comminution predicted later displacement, while intra-articular involvement did not predict displacement. Volar comminution was the strongest predictor of displacement. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:978–83

Aims. The influence of identifiable pre-operative factors on the outcome of eccentric rotational acetabular osteotomy (ERAO) is unknown. We aimed to determine the factors that might influence the outcome, in order to develop a scoring system for predicting the prognosis for patients undergoing this procedure. Patients and Methods. We reviewed 700 consecutive ERAOs in 54 men and 646 women with symptomatic acetabular dysplasia or early onset osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip, which were undertaken between September 1989 and March 2013. The patients’ pre-operative background, clinical and radiological findings were examined retrospectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed using the time from the day of surgery to a conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) as an endpoint. A risk score was calculated to predict the prognosis for conversion to THA, and its predictive capacity was investigated. Results. The congruity of the hip, age, the pre-operative minimum width of the joint space and range of abduction were identified as factors predicting conversion to THA. For three groups of patients (scoring 0 to 5, 6 to 7, and 8 to 9 points), the Kaplan-Meier event-free rates of survival at 15 years post-operatively for conversion to THA were 99.6%, 85.2% and 67.3%, respectively. Conclusion. These four pre-operative factors are easily measured and predict the prognosis for patients following ERAO. They may be used for decision making when offering surgical treatment to patients with acetabular dysplasia and early onset osteoarthritis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1326–32

We examined the association between patient-related factors and the risk of initial, short- and long-term implant failure after primary total hip replacement. We used data from the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Registry between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2002, which gave us a total of 36 984 patients. Separate analyses were carried out for three follow-up periods: 0 to 30 days, 31 days to six months (short term), and six months to 8.6 years after primary total hip replacement (long term). The outcome measure was defined as time to failure, which included re-operation with open surgery for any reason. Male gender and a high Charlson co-morbidity index score were strongly predictive for failure, irrespective of the period of follow-up. Age and diagnosis at primary total hip replacement were identified as time-dependent predictive factors of failure. During the first 30 days after primary total hip replacement, an age of 80 years or more and hip replacement undertaken as a sequela of trauma, for avascular necrosis or paediatric conditions, were associated with an increased risk of failure. However, during six months to 8.6 years after surgery, being less than 60 years old was associated with an increased risk of failure, whereas none of the diagnoses for primary total hip replacement appeared to be independent predictors

In the management of a pelvic fracture prompt recognition of an unstable fracture pattern is important in reducing mortality and morbidity. It is believed that a fracture of the transverse process of L5 is a predictor of pelvic fracture instability. However, there is little evidence in the literature to support this view. The aim of this study was to determine whether a fracture of the transverse process of L5 is a reliable predictor of pelvic fracture instability. We reviewed our hospital trauma database and identified 80 patients who sustained a pelvic fracture between 2006 and 2010. There were 32 women and 48 men with a mean age of 40 years (10 to 96). Most patients were injured in a road traffic accident or as a result of a fall from a height. A total of 41 patients (51%) had associated injuries. The pelvic fractures were categorised according to the Burgess and Young classification. There were 45 stable and 35 unstable fractures. An associated fracture of the transverse process of L5 was present in 17 patients; 14 (40%) of whom had an unstable fracture pattern. The odds ratio for an unstable fracture of the pelvis in the presence of a fracture of the transverse process of L5 was 9.3 and the relative risk was 2.5. A fracture of the transverse process of L5 in the presence of a pelvic fracture is associated with an increased risk of instability of the pelvic fracture. Its presence should alert the attending staff to this possibility

The fracture most commonly treated by orthopaedic surgeons is that of the distal radius. However, as yet there is no consensus on what constitutes an ‘acceptable’ radiological position before or after treatment. This should be defined as the position that will predict good function in the majority of cases. In this paper we review the radiological indices that can be measured in fractures of the distal radius and try to identify potential predictors of functional outcome. In patients likely to have high functional demands, we recommend that the articular reconstruction be achieved with less than 2 mm of gap or step-off, the radius be restored to within 2 mm of its normal length, and that carpal alignment be restored. The ultimate aim of treatment is a pain-free, mobile wrist joint without functional limitation

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify the association between asymmetrical skin creases of the thigh, buttock or inguinal region and pathological developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Patients and Methods. Between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2016, all patients referred to our unit from primary or secondary care with risk factors for DDH were assessed in a “one stop” clinic. All had clinical and sonographic assessment by the senior author (RWP) with the results being recorded prospectively. The inclusion criteria for this study were babies and children referred with asymmetrical skin creases. Those with a neurological cause of DDH were excluded. The positive predictive value (PPV) for pathological DDH was calculated. Results. A total of 105 patients met the inclusion criteria. There were 71 girls and 34 boys. Only two were found to have pathological DDH. Both also had unilateral limited abduction of the hip in flexion and a positive Galeazzi sign with apparent leg-length discrepancy. Thus, if the specialist examination of a patient with asymmetrical skin creases was normal, the PPV for DDH was 0%. Conclusion. Isolated asymmetrical skin creases are an unreliable clinical sign in the diagnosis of pathological DDH. Greater emphasis should be placed on the presence of additional clinical signs to guide radiological screening in babies and children. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:675–9

Limb-injury severity scores are designed to assess orthopaedic and vascular injuries. In Gustilo type-IIIA and type-IIIB injuries they have poor sensitivity and specificity to predict salvage or outcome. We have designed a trauma score to grade the severity of injury to the covering tissues, the bones and the functional tissues, grading the three components from one to five. Seven comorbid conditions known to influence the management and prognosis have been given a score of two each. The score was validated in 109 consecutive open injuries of the tibia, 42 type-IIIA and 67 type-IIIB. The total score was used to assess the possibilities of salvage and the outcome was measured by dividing the injuries into four groups according to their scores as follows: group I scored less than 5, group II 6 to 10, group III 11 to 15 and group IV 16 or more. A score of 14 to indicate amputation had the highest sensitivity and specificity. Our trauma score compared favourably with the Mangled Extremity Severity score in sensitivity (98% and 99%), specificity (100% and 17%), positive predictive value (100% and 97.5%) and negative predictive value (70% and 50%), respectively. A receiver-operating characteristic curve constructed for 67 type-IIIB injuries to assess the efficiency of the scores to predict salvage, showed that the area under the curve for this score was better (0.988 (± 0.013 . sem. )) than the Mangled Extremity Severity score (0.938 (± 0.039 . sem. )). All limbs in group IV and one in group III underwent amputation. Of the salvaged limbs, there was a significant difference in the three groups for the requirement of a flap for wound cover, the time to union, the number of surgical procedures required, the total days as an in-patient and the incidence of deep infection (p < 0.001 for all). The individual scores for covering and functional tissues were also found to offer specific guidelines in the management of these complex injuries. The scoring system was found to be simple in application and reliable in prognosis for both limb-salvage and outcome measures in type-IIIA and type-IIIB open injuries of the tibia

Aims. The pre-operative level of haemoglobin is the strongest predictor of the peri-operative requirement for blood transfusion after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). There are, however, no studies reporting a value that could be considered to be appropriate pre-operatively. . This study aimed to identify threshold pre-operative levels of haemoglobin that would predict the requirement for blood transfusion in patients who undergo TKA. . Patients and Methods. Analysis of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of 2284 consecutive patients undergoing unilateral TKA was used to determine gender specific thresholds predicting peri-operative transfusion with the highest combined sensitivity and specificity (area under ROC curve 0.79 for males; 0.78 for females). Results. Threshold levels of 13.75 g/dl for males and 12.75 g/dl for females were identified. The rates of transfusion in males and females, respectively above these levels were 3.37% and 7.11%, while below these levels, they were 16.13% and 28.17%. Pre-operative anaemia increased the rate of transfusion by 6.38 times in males and 6.27 times in females. Blood transfusion was associated with an increased incidence of early post-operative confusion (odds ratio (OR) = 3.44), cardiac arrhythmia (OR = 5.90), urinary catheterisation (OR = 1.60), the incidence of deep infection (OR = 4.03) and mortality (OR = 2.35) one year post-operatively, and increased length of stay (eight days vs six days, p < 0.001). . Conclusion. Uncorrected low pre-operative levels of haemoglobin put patients at potentially modifiable risk and attempts should be made to correct this before TKA. Target thresholds for the levels of haemoglobin pre-operatively in males and females are proposed. Take home message: Low pre-operative haemoglobin levels put patients at unnecessary risk and should be corrected prior to surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:490–7

Aims

This study presents patient-reported quality of life (QoL) over the first year following surgical debridement of long bone osteomyelitis. It assesses the bone involvement, antimicrobial options, coverage of soft tissues, and host status (BACH) classification as a prognostic tool and its ability to stratify cases into ‘uncomplicated’ or ‘complex’.

Pre-operative variables are increasingly being used to determine eligibility for total knee replacement (TKR). This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationships, interactions and predictive capacity of variables available pre- and post-operatively on patient satisfaction following TKR. Using nationally collected patient reported outcome measures and data from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales, we identified 22 798 patients who underwent TKR for osteoarthritis between August 2008 and September 2010. The ability of specific covariates to predict satisfaction was assessed using ordinal logistic regression and structural equational modelling. Only 4959 (22%) of 22 278 patients rated the results of their TKR as ‘excellent’, despite the majority (71%, n = 15 882) perceiving their knee symptoms to be much improved. The strongest predictors of satisfaction were post-operative variables. Satisfaction was significantly and positively related to the perception of symptom improvement (operative success) and the post-operative EuroQol-5D score. While also significant within the models pre-operative variables were less important and had a minimal influence upon post-operative satisfaction. The most robust predictions of satisfaction occurred only when both pre- and post-operative variables were considered together. These findings question the appropriateness of restricting access to care based on arbitrary pre-operative thresholds as these factors have little bearing on post-operative satisfaction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1359–65

Aims

It remains difficult to diagnose early postoperative periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We aimed to validate the optimal cutoff values of ESR, CRP, and synovial fluid analysis for detecting early postoperative PJI in a large series of primary TKAs.

We have investigated whether shape of the knee can predict the clinical outcome of patients after an anterior cruciate ligament rupture. We used statistical shape modelling to measure the shape of the knee joint of 182 prospectively followed patients on lateral and Rosenberg view radiographs of the knee after a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament. Subsequently, we associated knee shape with the International Knee Documentation Committee subjective score at two years follow-up. The mean age of patients was 31 years (21 to 51), the majority were male (n = 121) and treated operatively (n = 135). We found two modes (shape variations) that were significantly associated with the subjective score at two years: one for the operatively treated group (p = 0.002) and one for the non-operatively treated group (p = 0.003). Operatively treated patients who had higher subjective scores had a smaller intercondylar notch and a smaller width of the intercondylar eminence. Non-operatively treated patients who scored higher on the subjective score had a more pyramidal intercondylar notch as opposed to one that was more dome-shaped. We conclude that the shape of the femoral notch and the intercondylar eminence is predictive of clinical outcome two years after a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:737–42

Aims

The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for adverse events following the surgical correction of cervical spinal deformities in adults.

The ability to predict load-bearing capacity during the consolidation phase in distraction osteogenesis by non-invasive means would represent a significant advance in the management of patients undergoing such treatment. Measurements of stiffness have been suggested as a promising tool for this purpose. Although the multidimensional characteristics of bone loading in compression, bending and torsion are apparent, most previous experiments have analysed only the relationship between maximum load-bearing capacity and a single type of stiffness. We have studied how compressive, bending and torsional stiffness are related to the torsional load-bearing capacity of healing callus using a common set of samples of bone regenerate from 26 sheep treated by tibial distraction osteogenesis. Our findings showed that measurements of torsional, bending and compressive stiffness were all suitable as predictors of the load-bearing capacity of healing callus. Measurements of torsional stiffness performed slightly better than those of compressive and bending stiffness

Aims. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether an innovative templating technique could predict the need for acetabular augmentation during primary total hip arthroplasty for patients with dysplastic hips. Patients and Methods. We developed a simple templating technique to estimate acetabular component coverage at total hip arthroplasty, the True Cup: False Cup (TC:FC) ratio. We reviewed all patients with dysplastic hips who underwent primary total hip arthroplasty between 2005 and 2012. Traditional radiological methods of assessing the degree of acetabular dysplasia (Sharp’s angle, Tönnis angle, centre-edge angle) as well as the TC:FC ratio were measured from the pre-operative radiographs. A comparison of augmented and non-augmented hips was undertaken to determine any difference in pre-operative radiological indices between the two cohorts. The intra- and inter-observer reliability for all radiological indices used in the study were also calculated. Results. Of the 128 cases reviewed, 33 (26%) needed acetabular augmentation. We found no difference in the median Sharp’s angle (p = 0.10), Tönnis angle (p = 0.28), or centre-edge angle (p = 0.07) between the two groups. A lower TC:FC ratio was observed in the augmented group compared with the non-augmented group (median = 0.66 versus 0.88, p <  0.001). Intra-observer reliability was found to be high for all radiological indices analysed (interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) > 0.7). However, inter-observer reliability was more variable and was only high for the TC: FC ratio (ICC > 0.7). Conclusion. The TC: FC ratio gives an accurate estimate of acetabular component coverage. It can help predict which dysplastic hips are likely to need acetabular augmentation at primary total hip arthroplasty. It has high intra- and inter-observer reliability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:445–50

We studied whether the presence of lateral osteophytes on plain radiographs was a predictor for the quality of cartilage in the lateral compartment of patients with varus osteoarthritic of the knee (Kellgren and Lawrence grade 2 to 3). The baseline MRIs of 344 patients from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) who had varus osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee on hip-knee-ankle radiographs were reviewed. Patients were categorised using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) osteophyte grading system into 174 patients with grade 0 (no osteophytes), 128 grade 1 (mild osteophytes), 28 grade 2 (moderate osteophytes) and 14 grade 3 (severe osteophytes) in the lateral compartment (tibia). All patients had Kellgren and Lawrence grade 2 or 3 arthritis of the medial compartment. The thickness and volume of the lateral cartilage and the percentage of full-thickness cartilage defects in the lateral compartment was analysed. There was no difference in the cartilage thickness or cartilage volume between knees with osteophyte grades 0 to 3. The percentage of full-thickness cartilage defects on the tibial side increased from < 2% for grade 0 and 1 to 10% for grade 3. The lateral compartment cartilage volume and thickness is not influenced by the presence of lateral compartment osteophytes in patients with varus OA of the knee. Large lateral compartment osteophytes (grade 3) increase the likelihood of full-thickness cartilage defects in the lateral compartment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1634–9

The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical predictors of surgical outcome in patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). We reviewed a consecutive series of 248 patients (71 women and 177 men) with CSM who had undergone surgery at our institution between January 2000 and October 2010. Their mean age was 59.0 years (16 to 86). Medical records, office notes, and operative reports were reviewed for data collection. Special attention was focused on pre-operative duration and severity as well as post-operative persistence of myelopathic symptoms. Disease severity was graded according to the Nurick classification. Our multivariate logistic regression model indicated that Nurick grade 2 CSM patients have the highest chance of complete symptom resolution (p < 0.001) and improvement to normal gait (p = 0.004) following surgery. Patients who did not improve after surgery had longer duration of myelopathic symptoms than those who did improve post-operatively (17.85 months (1 to 101) vs 11.21 months (1 to 69); p = 0.002). More advanced Nurick grades were not associated with a longer duration of symptoms (p = 0.906). Our data suggest that patients with Nurick grade 2 CSM are most likely to improve from surgery. The duration of myelopathic symptoms does not have an association with disease severity but is an independent prognostic indicator of surgical outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:966–71

Aims

Iliosacral sarcoma resections have been shown to have high rates of local recurrence (LR) and poor overall survival. There is also no universal classification for the resection of pelvic sarcomas invading the sacrum. This study proposes a novel classification system and analyzes the survival and risk of recurrence, when using this system.

We reviewed a consecutive series of 527 uninfected hip replacements in patients resident in the UK which had been implanted from 1981 to 1993. All had the same basic design of femoral prosthesis, but four fixation techniques had been used: two press-fit, one HA-coated and one cemented. Review and radiography were planned prospectively. For assessment the components were retrospectively placed into two groups: those which had failed from two years onwards by aseptic femoral loosening and those in which the femoral component had survived without revision or recommendation for revision. All available radiographs in both groups were measured to determine vertical migration and examined by two observers to agree the presence of radiolucent lines (RLLs), lytic lesions, resorption of the neck, proximal osteopenia and distal intramedullary and distal subperiosteal formation of new bone. We then related the presence or absence of these features and the rate of migration at two years to the outcome with regard to aseptic loosening and determined the predictive value of each of these variables. Migration of ≥2 mm at two years, the presence of an RLL of 2 mm occupying one-third of any one zone, and subperiosteal formation of new bone at the tip of the stem were predictors of aseptic loosening after two years. There were too few lytic lesions to assess at two years, but at five years a lytic lesion ≥2 mm also predicted failure. We discuss the use of these variables as predictors of femoral aseptic loosening for groups of hips and for individual hips. We conclude that if a group of about 50 total hip replacements, perhaps with a new design of femoral stem, were studied in this way at two years, a mean migration of < 0.4 mm and an incidence of < 10% of RLLs of 2 mm in any one zone would predict 95% survival at ten years. For an individual prosthesis, migration of < 2 mm and the absence of an RLL of ≤2 mm at two years predict a 6% chance of revision over approximately ten years. If either 2 mm of migration or an RLL of 2 mm is present, the chances of revision rise to 27%, and if both radiological signs are present they are 50%. If at five years a lytic lesion has developed, whatever the situation at two years, there is approximately a 50% chance of failure in the following five years. Our findings suggest that replacements using a limited number of any new design of femoral prosthesis should be screened radiologically at two years before they are generally introduced. We also suggest that radiographs of individual patients at two years and perhaps at five years should be studied to help to decide whether or not the patient should remain under close review or be discharged from specialist follow-up

We undertook a prospective study to evaluate the prognostic significance of the serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in predicting the survival of patients with osteosarcoma. The levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 15 patients with osteosarcoma before commencing treatment. The patients were divided into two groups, with a high or a low serum VEGF level, and the incidence of metastases and overall survival rate were compared. No significant relationship was observed between the serum VEGF levels and gender, age, the size of the tumour or the response to pre-operative chemotherapy. Patients with a serum VEGF > 1000 pg/ml had significantly worse survival than those with a level < 1000 pg/ml (p = 0.002). The serum VEGF level may be useful in predicting the prognosis for survival in patients with osteosarcoma

Aims

The aim of this study was to define the complications and long-term outcome following adolescent mid-shaft clavicular fracture.

Aims

Patients with abnormal spinopelvic mobility are at increased risk for instability. Measuring the change in sacral slope (ΔSS) can help determine spinopelvic mobility preoperatively. Sacral slope (SS) should decrease at least 10° to demonstrate adequate posterior pelvic tilt. There is potential for different ΔSS measurements in the same patient based on sitting posture. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of sitting posture on the ΔSS in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA).

Our aim was to determine whether abnormalities noted on MRI immediately after reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip could predict the persistance of dysplasia and aid surgical planning. Scans of 13 hips in which acetabular dysplasia had resolved by the age of four years were compared with those of five which had required pelvic osteotomy for persisting dysplasia. The scans were analysed by two consultant musculoskeletal radiologists who were blinded to the outcome in each child. The postreduction scans highlighted a number of anatomical abnormalities secondary to developmental dysplasia of the hip, but statistical analysis showed that none were predictive of persisting acetabular dysplasia in the older child, suggesting that the factors which determine the long-term outcome were not visible on these images

This annotation briefly reviews the history of artificial intelligence and machine learning in health care and orthopaedics, and considers the role it will have in the future, particularly with reference to statistical analyses involving large datasets.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1476–1478

Redisplacement is the most common complication of immobilisation in a cast for the treatment of diaphyseal fractures of the forearm in children. We have previously shown that the three-point index (TPI) can accurately predict redisplacement of fractures of the distal radius. In this prospective study we applied this index to assessment of diaphyseal fractures of the forearm in children and compared it with other cast-related indices that might predict redisplacement. A total of 76 children were included. Their ages, initial displacement, quality of reduction, site and level of the fractures and quality of the casting according to the TPI, Canterbury index and padding index were analysed. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for redisplacement. A total of 18 fractures (24%) redisplaced in the cast. A TPI value of > 0.8 was the only significant risk factor for redisplacement (odds ratio 238.5 (95% confidence interval 7.063 to 8054.86); p < 0.001). The TPI was far superior to other radiological indices, with a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 97% in successfully predicting redisplacement. We recommend it for routine use in the management of these fractures in children. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:563–7

The aim of this study was to examine the rates and potential risk factors for 28-day re-admission following a fracture of the hip at a high-volume tertiary care hospital. We retrospectively reviewed 467 consecutive patients with a fracture of the hip treated in the course of one year. Causes and risk factors for unplanned 28-day re-admissions were examined using univariate and multivariate analysis, including the difference in one-year mortality. A total of 55 patients (11.8%) were re-admitted within 28 days of discharge. The most common causes were pneumonia in 15 patients (27.3%), dehydration and renal dysfunction in ten (18.2%) and deteriorating mobility in ten (18.2%). A moderate correlation was found between chest infection during the initial admission and subsequent re-admission with pneumonia (r = 0.44, p < 0.001). A significantly higher mortality rate at one year was seen in the re-admission group (41.8% (23 of 55) vs 18.7% (77 of 412), p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis identified advancing age, admission source, and the comorbidities of diabetes and neurological disorders as the strongest predictors for re-admission. Early re-admission following hip fracture surgery is predominantly due to medical causes and is associated with higher one-year mortality. The risk factors for re-admission can have implications for performance-based pay initiatives in the NHS. Multidisciplinary management in reducing post-operative active clinical problems may reduce early re-admission

The aim of this study was to determine whether the high-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score (Hs-mGPS) could predict the disease-specific survival and oncological outcome in adult patients with non-metastatic soft-tissue sarcoma before treatment. A total of 139 patients treated between 2001 and 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The Hs-mGPS varied between 0 and 2. Patients with a score of 2 had a poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). The estimated five-year rate of disease-specific survival for those with a score of 2 was 0%, compared with 85.4% (95% CI 77.3 to 93.5) for those with a score of 0. Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer disease-specific survival than those with a score of 1 (75.3%, 95% CI 55.8 to 94.8; p < 0.001). Patients with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free rate than those with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free survival than did those with a score of 1 (p = 0.03). A multivariate analysis showed that the Hs-mGPS remained an independent predictor of survival and recurrence. The Hs-mGPS could be a useful prognostic marker in patients with a soft-tissue sarcoma. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:847–52

There is little in the literature on the level of participation in sports which patients undertake after total hip replacement (THR). Our aims in this study were to determine first, the level of sporting activity, second, the predictive factors for returning to sporting activity, and third, the correlation between participation in sports and satisfaction after THR. We retrospectively identified 815 patients who had undergone THR between 1995 and 2005. All were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire regarding their sporting activity. A total of 571 patients (71%) met the inclusion criteria and completed the evaluation. At a mean follow-up of 9.8 years (. sd. 2.9), 366 patients (64%) returned to sporting activity as defined by a University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) score of > 5. The main reasons that patients had for refraining from sports were fear of dislocation (65; 31.6%), avoiding wear (52; 25.4%), and the recommendation of the surgeon (34; 16.6%). There was a significant relationship between higher post-operative participation in sport in those patients with a higher pre-operative Harris hip score (HHS) (p = 0.0074), motivation to participate in sporting activities (p = 0.00022) and a shorter duration of symptoms (p = 0.0034). Finally, there was a correlation between age (p = 0.00013), UCLA score (p = 0.012) and pre-operative HHS (p = 0.00091) and satisfaction. In conclusion, we found that most patients participate in sporting activity after THR, regardless of the advice of their surgeon, and that there is a correlation between the level of participation and pre-operative function, motivation, duration of symptoms and post-operative satisfaction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1041–6

The deformity index is a new radiological measurement of the degree of deformity of the femoral head in unilateral Perthes’ disease. Its values represent a continuous outcome measure of deformity incorporating changes in femoral epiphyseal height and width compared with the unaffected side. The sphericity of the femoral head in 30 radiographs (ten normal and 20 from patients with Perthes’ disease) were rated blindly as normal, mild, moderate or severe by three observers. Further blinded measurements of the deformity index were made on two further occasions with intervals of one month. There was good agreement between the deformity index score and the subjective grading of deformity. Intra- and interobserver agreement for the deformity index was high. The intraobserver intraclass correlation coefficient for each observer was 0.98, 0.99 and 0.97, respectively, while the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.98 for the first and 0.97 for the second set of calculations. We also reviewed retrospectively 96 radiographs of children with Perthes’ disease, who were part of a multicentre trial which followed them to skeletal maturity. We found that the deformity index at two years correlated well with the Stulberg grading at skeletal maturity. A deformity index value above 0.3 was associated with the development of an aspherical femoral head. Using a deformity index value of 0.3 to divide groups for risk gives a sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 81% for predicting a Stulberg grade of III or IV. We conclude that the deformity index at two years is a valid and reliable radiological outcome measure in unilateral Perthes’ disease

In this study we evaluated whether pre-operative Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) osteoarthritis scores can predict satisfaction following total hip arthroplasty (THA). Prospective data for a cohort of patients undergoing THA from two large academic centres were collected, and pre-operative and one-year post-operative WOMAC scores and a 25-point satisfaction questionnaire were obtained for 446 patients. Satisfaction scores were dichotomised into either improvement or deterioration. Scatter plots and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient were used to describe the association between pre-operative WOMAC and one-year post-operative WOMAC scores and patient satisfaction. Satisfaction was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis against pre-operative, post-operative and δ WOMAC scores. . We found no relationship between pre-operative WOMAC scores and one-year post-operative WOMAC or satisfaction scores, with Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients of 0.16 and –0.05, respectively. The ROC analysis showed areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.54 (pre-operative WOMAC), 0.67 (post-operative WOMAC) and 0.43 (δ WOMAC), respectively, for an improvement in satisfaction. . We conclude that the pre-operative WOMAC score does not predict the post-operative WOMAC score or patient satisfaction after THA, and that WOMAC scores can therefore not be used to prioritise patient care. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:150–3

Plasma levels of cobalt and chromium ions and Metal Artefact Reduction Sequence (MARS)-MRI scans were performed on patients with 209 consecutive, unilateral, symptomatic metal-on-metal (MoM) hip arthroplasties. There was wide variation in plasma cobalt and chromium levels, and MARS-MRI scans were positive for adverse reaction to metal debris (ARMD) in 84 hips (40%). There was a significant difference in the median plasma cobalt and chromium levels between those with positive and negative MARS-MRI scans (p < 0.001). Compared with MARS-MRI as the potential reference standard for the diagnosis of ARMD, the sensitivity of metal ion analysis for cobalt or chromium with a cut-off of > 7 µg/l was 57%. The specificity was 65%, positive predictive value was 52% and the negative predictive value was 69% in symptomatic patients. A lowered threshold of > 3.5 µg/l for cobalt and chromium ion levels improved the sensitivity and negative predictive value to 86% and 74% but at the expense of specificity (27%) and positive predictive value (44%). Metal ion analysis is not recommended as a sole indirect screening test in the surveillance of symptomatic patients with a MoM arthroplasty. The investigating clinicians should have a low threshold for obtaining cross-sectional imaging in these patients, even in the presence of low plasma metal ion levels

There is no absolute method of evaluating healing of a fracture of the tibial shaft. In this study we sought to validate a new clinical method based on the systematic observation of gait, first by assessing the degree of agreement between three independent observers regarding the gait score for a given patient, and secondly by determining how such a score might predict healing of a fracture. We used a method of evaluating gait to assess 33 patients (29 men and four women, with a mean age of 29 years (15 to 62)) who had sustained an isolated fracture of the tibial shaft and had been treated with a locked intramedullary nail. There were 15 closed and 18 open fractures (three Gustilo and Anderson grade I, seven grade II, seven grade IIIA and one grade IIIB). Assessment was carried out three and six months post-operatively using videos taken with a digital camera. Gait was graded on a scale ranging from 1 (extreme difficulty) to 4 (normal gait). Bivariate analysis included analysis of variance to determine whether the gait score statistically correlated with previously validated and standardised scores of clinical status and radiological evidence of union. An association was found between the pattern of gait and all the other variables. Improvement in gait was associated with the absence of pain on weight-bearing, reduced tenderness over the fracture, a higher Radiographic Union Scale in Tibial Fractures score, and improved functional status, measured using the Brazilian version of the Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment questionnaire (all p < 0.001). Although further study is needed, the analysis of gait in this way may prove to be a useful clinical tool

Aims

Cementless unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) has advantages over cemented UKA, including improved fixation, but has a higher risk of tibial plateau fracture, particularly in Japanese patients. The aim of this multicentre study was to determine when cementless tibial components could safely be used in Japanese patients based on the size and shape of the tibia.

Plain radiographs of 67 acute spinal compression fractures in 49 patients were analysed by subjective and objective criteria, using CT scans as the diagnostic standard for the diagnosis of burst fracture. Discriminant analysis correctly predicted the type of fracture in 88% of cases. Burst fractures, however, were almost as frequently misdiagnosed as being wedge compression fractures using this technique, compared with the reading of 25 films from patients without previous information. A quarter of the injuries would have been misdiagnosed had reliance been placed solely on the plain radiographs. CT scans of all patients with acute spinal compression fractures should be considered to decrease this potentially serious diagnostic error

As the surgical indications for total knee replacement (TKR) expand to include younger, heavier and more active patients, knowledge of the effect of these demographic variables on the outcome and survival of the implant is increasingly important. Between November 1986 and September 1990, 402 patients underwent 562 primary cemented cruciate-retaining TKRs carried out by a single surgical team. The overall results showed a survival of 96.8% at 14 years with 1.44% lost to follow-up. Evaluating the demographics of these patients showed that certain groups fared significantly less well. The best results were seen in non-obese women with osteoarthritis who were over 60 years of age in whom there was ten-year survival of 99.4%. The worst results were in obese men with osteoarthritis who were less than 60 years of age in whom there was a ten-year survival of 35.7%. Caution should be exercised when considering TKR on a patient with this combination of poor risk factors. By identifying demographic factors at the time of consultation the surgeon is better able to predict the survival of the TKR. This information is important when considering the best options for treatment of a patient and in providing accurate information during preoperative counselling

We assessed 882 patients presenting with a proximal femoral fracture by a new mobility score and by a mental test score, to determine which was of the most value in forecasting mortality at one year. Both scores gave a highly significant prediction, but the mobility score had a greater predictive value and is easier to perform

Our aim in this prospective radiological study was to determine whether the flexibility rate calculated from radiographs obtained during forced traction under general anaesthesia, was better than that of fulcrum-bending radiographs before corrective surgery in predicting the extent of the available correction in patients with idiopathic scoliosis. We evaluated 33 patients with a Cobb angle > 60° on a standing posteroanterior radiograph, who had been treated by posterior correction. Pre-operative standing fulcrum-bending radiographs and those with forced-traction under general anaesthesia were obtained. Post-operative standing radiographs were taken after surgical correction. The mean forced-traction flexibility rate was 55% (. sd. 11.3) which was significantly higher than the mean fulcrum-bending flexibility rate of 32% (. sd. 16.1) (p < 0.001). We found no correlation between either the forced-traction or fulcrum-bending flexibility rates and the correction rate post-operatively (p = 0.24 and p = 0.44, respectively). Radiographs obtained during forced traction under general anaesthesia were better at predicting the flexibility of the curve than fulcrum-bending radiographs in curves with a Cobb angle > 60° in the standing position and may identify those patients for whom supplementary anterior surgery can be avoided

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 94 children with fractures of the distal third of the radius, with or without ulnar fractures, treated by primary closed reduction and plaster. The overall failure rate of 29% was due mainly to irreducibility, inability to maintain reduction and eventual limitation of forearm rotation. Age, sex and severity of angulation were not significant, but the direction of angulation and the degree of translation at either the radial or the ulnar fracture sites were significant risk factors. Translation of the radius was the single most reliable predictor of outcome (83% correct). The risk of failure in fractures with translation of the radius of more than half the diameter of the bone was 60%, compared with 8% for fractures with less translation

We have assessed the influence of somatisation on the outcome of treatment in 81 patients with chronic low back pain. All, irrespective of whether treatment was surgical or conservative, had a significantly better (p < 0.001) health-related quality of life at follow-up on all but one scale of the SF-36. Lower health-related quality of life at follow-up correlated significantly with a higher tendency to somatise before treatment and at follow-up. A logistic regression analysis yielded two factors which predicted the outcome; somatisation (p < 0.001) and ‘doctor shopping’ (the number of physicians consulted before the present inpatient treatment, p < 0.001). These factors accurately distinguished between patients with good and those with poor outcomes in 82%. Patients with somatisation and ‘doctor shopping’ were at a higher risk for a poor outcome. The results show the relevance of somatisation in the outcome of treatment in patients with low back pain

We studied the CT and MR scans, and the histology of 50 patients with primary Ewing’s sarcoma of bone to determine the association between the change in tumour volume and necrosis after chemotherapy, and to ascertain their influence on prognosis. The mean age of the patients was 17 years. The limbs were involved in 40 and the axial bones in ten. The volume of the tumour at diagnosis varied from 31 to 1790 ml. There was a significant relationship between necrosis and the measured change in volume of the tumour after chemotherapy. Progression of the tumour despite chemotherapy was seen only in patients with necrosis of grades 4 to 6. Necrosis significantly influenced survival (p < 0.05), but the effect of change in volume was less significant. Change in volume of the tumour is a good predictor of necrosis induced by chemotherapy. Necrosis is a strong prognostic factor in Ewing’s sarcoma

The capacity for physiotherapy to improve the outcome after fracture of the distal radius is unproven. We carried out a randomised controlled trial on 96 patients, comparing conventional physiotherapy with a regime of home exercises. The function of the upper limb was assessed at the time of removal of the plaster cast and at three and six months after injury. Factors which may predict poor outcome in these patients were sought. Grip strength and hand function did not significantly differ between the two groups. Flexion and extension of the wrist were the only movements to improve with physiotherapy at six months (p = 0.001). Predictors of poor functional outcome were malunion and impaired function before the fracture. These patients presented with pain, decreased rotation of the forearm and low functional scores at six weeks. Our study has shown that home exercises are adequate rehabilitation after uncomplicated fracture of the distal radius, and routine referral for a course of physiotherapy should be discouraged. The role of physiotherapy in patients at high risk of a poor outcome requires further investigation

Aims

We aimed to determine the effect of dementia and Parkinson’s disease on one, three and 12-month mortality following surgery for fracture of the hip in elderly patients from an Asian population.

Aims

Recently, there has been considerable interest in quantifying the associations between bony abnormalities around and in the hip joint and osteoarthritis (OA). Our aim was to investigate the relationships between acetabular undercoverage, acetabular overcoverage, and femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) with OA of the hip, which currently remain controversial.

Substance P is readily detected in the synovial fluid of the knee in which it acts as a powerful inflammatory agent in response to injury and disease. It may be an objective predictor of pain after knee replacement surgery. The level of substance P was measured in the synovial fluid in both knees of 114 patients having unilateral and in 86 patients having bilateral total knee replacement for osteoarthritis. All had severe pain in the knee to be replaced and joint destruction. Substance P was elevated in 73% of replaced knees but not in normal or asymptomatic knees. Good or excellent pain relief was achieved in 97% of patients with an elevated preoperative level of substance P and in 61% of those with a normal preoperative level (p < 0.05 compared with preoperative values)

The operative treatment of fractures of the proximal humerus can be complicated by poor bone quality. Our aim was to evaluate a new method which allows prediction of the bone quality of the proximal humerus from radiographs. Anteroposterior radiographs were taken of 19 human cadaver humeri. The cortical thickness was measured at two levels of the proximal humeral diaphysis. The bone mineral density (BMD) was determined for the humeral head (HH), the surgical neck (SN), the greater tuberosity (GT) and lesser tuberosity (LT) using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. The mean cortical thickness was 4.4 ± 1.0 mm. Specimens aged 70 years or less had a significantly higher cortical thickness than those aged over 70 years. A significant positive correlation was found between cortical thickness and the BMD for each region of interest. The cortical thickness of the proximal diaphysis is a reliable predictor of the bone quality of the proximal humerus

Aims

Total wrist arthrodesis (TWA) produces a spectrum of outcomes. We investigated this by reviewing 77 consecutive TWA performed for inflammatory and post-traumatic arthropathies, wrist instability and as a salvage procedure.

Aims

The aims of this study were to measure sagittal standing and sitting lumbar-pelvic-femoral alignment in patients before and following total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to consider what preoperative factors may influence a change in postoperative pelvic position.

Aims

Patients seeking cervical spine surgery are thought to be increasing in age, comorbidities and functional debilitation. The changing demographics of this population may significantly impact the outcomes of their care, specifically with regards to complications. In this study, our goals were to determine the rates of functionally dependent patients undergoing elective cervical spine procedures and to assess the effect of functional dependence on 30-day morbidity and mortality using a large, validated national cohort.

Worldwide rates of primary and revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are rising due to increased longevity of the population and the burden of osteoarthritis.

Revision TKA is a technically demanding procedure generating outcomes which are reported to be inferior to those of primary knee arthroplasty, and with a higher risk of complication. Overall, the rate of revision after primary arthroplasty is low, but the number of patients currently living with a TKA suggests a large potential revision healthcare burden.

Many patients are now outliving their prosthesis, and consideration must be given to how we are to provide the necessary capacity to meet the rising demand for revision surgery and how to maximise patient outcomes.

The purpose of this review was to examine the epidemiology of, and risk factors for, revision knee arthroplasty, and to discuss factors that may enhance patient outcomes.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:723–8.

Modern metal-on-metal hip resurfacing has been widely performed in the United Kingdom for over a decade. However, the literature reports conflicting views of the benefits: excellent medium- to long-term results with some brands in specific subgroups, but high failure rates and local soft-tissue reactions in others. The National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) has collected data on all hip resurfacings performed since 2003. This retrospective cohort study recorded survival time to revision from a resurfacing procedure, exploring risk factors independently associated with failure. All patients with a primary diagnosis of osteoarthritis who underwent resurfacing between 2003 and 2010 were included in the analyses. Cox’s proportional hazard models were used to analyse the extent to which the risk of revision was related to patient, surgeon and implant covariates.

A total of 27 971 hip resurfacings were performed during the study period, of which 1003 (3.59%) underwent revision surgery. In the final adjusted model, we found that women were at greater risk of revision than men (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30, p = 0.007), but the risk of revision was independent of age. Of the implant-specific predictors, five brands had a significantly greater risk of revision than the Birmingham Hip Resurfacing (BHR) (ASR: HR = 2.82, p < 0.001, Conserve: HR = 2.03, p < 0.001, Cormet: HR = 1.43, p = 0.001, Durom: HR = 1.67, p < 0.001, Recap: HR = 1.58, p = 0.007). Smaller femoral head components were also significantly more likely to require revision (≤ 44 mm: HR = 2.14, p < 0.001, 45 to 47 mm: HR = 1.48, p = 0.001) than medium or large heads, as were operations performed by low-volume surgeons (HR = 1.36, p <  0.001). Once these influences had been removed, in 4873 male patients < 60 years old undergoing resurfacing with a BHR, the five-year estimated risk of revision was 1.59%.

In summary, after adjustment for a range of covariates we found that there were significant differences in the rate of failure between brands and component sizes. Younger male patients had good five-year implant survival when the BHR was used.

In Scotland, the number of primary total knee replacements performed annually has been increasing steadily. The price of the implant is fixed but the length of hospital stay is variable.

We prospectively investigated all patients who underwent primary unilateral total knee replacement in the Scottish region of Fife, between December 1994 and February 2007 and assessed their recorded pre-operative details. The data were analysed using univariate and multiple linear regression statistical analysis.

Data on the length of stay were available from a total of 2106 unilateral total knee replacements. The median length of hospital stay was eight days. The significant pre-operative risk factors for an increased length of stay were the year of admission, details of the consultant looking after the patient, the stair score, the walking-aid score and age.

Awareness of the pre-operative factors which increase the length of hospital stay may provide the opportunity to influence them favourably and to reduce the time in hospital and the associated costs of unilateral total knee replacement.

Our aim was to determine the effect of the initial pattern of fracture and the displacement of fragments on the outcome of proximal humeral fractures treated conservatively. We followed 93 consecutive patients prospectively for one year. Final movement and strength were compared with those of the contralateral side. The final American Shoulder and Elbow Society score and the Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand and Short-Form 36 questionnaires were compared with those provided by the patient on the day of the injury. Radiographs and CT scans with three-dimensional reconstruction were obtained in all patients. The pattern of the fracture and the displacement of individual fragments were analysed and correlated with the final outcome. There were two cases of nonunion and six of avascular necrosis. The majority of the fractures (84 patients; 90%) followed one of the following four patterns: posteromedial (varus) impaction in 50 patients (54%), lateral (valgus) impaction in 13 (14%), isolated greater tuberosity in 15 (16%), and anteromedial impaction fracture in six (6%). Head orientation, impaction of the surgical neck and displacement of the tuberosity correlated strongly with the outcome.

In fractures with posteromedial impaction, a poor outcome was noted as the articular surface displaced inferiorly increasing its distance from the acromion. A poorer outcome was noted as a fractured greater tuberosity displaced medially overlapping with the posterior articular surface. Lateral impaction fractures had a worse outcome than other patterns of fracture.

We compared revision and mortality rates of 4668 patients undergoing primary total hip and knee replacement between 1989 and 2007 at a University Hospital in New Zealand. The mean age at the time of surgery was 69 years (16 to 100). A total of 1175 patients (25%) had died at follow-up at a mean of ten years post-operatively. The mean age of those who died within ten years of surgery was 74.4 years (29 to 97) at time of surgery. No change in comorbidity score or age of the patients receiving joint replacement was noted during the study period. No association of revision or death could be proven with higher comorbidity scoring, grade of surgeon, or patient gender.

We found that patients younger than 50 years at the time of surgery have a greater chance of requiring a revision than of dying, those around 58 years of age have a 50:50 chance of needing a revision, and in those older than 62 years the prosthesis will normally outlast the patient. Patients over 77 years old have a greater than 90% chance of dying than requiring a revision whereas those around 47 years are on average twice as likely to require a revision than die. This information can be used to rationalise the need for long-term surveillance and during the informed consent process.

We matched 78 patients with a loose cemented Charnley Elite Plus total hip replacement (THR) by age, gender, race, prosthesis and time from surgery with 49 patients with a well-fixed stable hip replacement, to determine if poor bone quality predisposes to loosening. Clinical, radiological, biomechanical and bone mineral density indicators of bone quality were assessed.

Patients with loose replacements had more pain, were more likely to have presented with atrophic arthritis and to have a history of fragility fracture, narrower femoral cortices and lower peri-prosthetic or lumbar spine bone mineral density (all t-test, p < 0.01). They also tended to be smokers (chi-squared test, p = 0.08). Vitamin-D deficiency was common, but not significantly different between the two groups (t-test, p = 0.31)

In this series of cemented hip replacements performed between 1994 and 1998, aseptic loosening was associated with poor bone quality. Patients with a THR should be screened for osteoporosis and have regular radiological surveillance.

Blood metal ions have been widely used to investigate metal-on-metal hip replacements, but their ability to discriminate between well-functioning and failed hips is not known. The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has suggested a cut-off level of 7 parts per billion (ppb).

We performed a pair-matched, case-control study to investigate the sensitivity and specificity of blood metal ion levels for diagnosing failure in 176 patients with a unilateral metal-on-metal hip replacement. We recruited 88 cases with a pre-revision, unexplained failed hip and an equal number of matching controls with a well-functioning hip. We investigated the 7 ppb cut-off level for the maximum of cobalt or chromium and determined optimal mathematical cut-off levels from receiver-operating characteristic curves.

The 7 ppb cut-off level for the maximum of cobalt or chromium had a specificity of 89% and sensitivity 52% for detecting a pre-operative unexplained failed metal on metal hip replacement. The optimal cut-off level for the maximum of cobalt or chromium was 4.97 ppb and had sensitivity 63% and specificity 86%.

Blood metal ions had good discriminant ability to separate failed from well-functioning hip replacements. The MHRA cut-off level of 7 ppb provides a specific test but has poor sensitivity.

The radiological evaluation of the anterolateral femoral head is an essential tool for the assessment of the cam type of femoroacetabular impingement. CT, MRI and frog lateral plain radiographs have all been suggested as imaging options for this type of lesion. The alpha angle is accepted as a reliable indicator of the cam type of impingement and may also be used as an assessment for the successful operative correction of the cam lesion.

We studied the alpha angles of 32 consecutive patients with femoroacetabular impingement. The angle measured on frog lateral radiographs using templating tools was compared with that measured on CT scans in order to assess the reliability of the frog lateral view in analysing the alpha angle in cam impingement.

A high interobserver reliability was noted for the assessment of the alpha angle on the frog lateral view with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.83. The mean alpha angle measured on the frog lateral view was 58.71° (32° to 83.3°) and that by CT was 65.11° (30° to 102°). A poor intraclass correlation coefficient (0.08) was noted between the measurements using the two systems.

The frog lateral plain radiograph is not reliable for measuring the alpha angle. Various factors may be responsible for this such as the projection of the radiograph, the positioning of the patient and the quality of the image. CT may be necessary for accurate measurement of the alpha angle.