There are many reports concerning the aetiology and prophylaxis of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) but little is known about its natural history. The purpose of our study was to identify the incidence and site of DVT, the risk factors for pulmonary embolism and the natural history of DVT after total hip replacement (THR) in patients who do not receive any form of prophylactic or therapeutic treatment for DVT. Two hundred patients who had a primary THR were included: 100 had one-staged bilateral THR and 100 had unilateral THR and 150 implants were cemented and 150 cementless. Coagulation assays, a full blood count, blood typing and serum chemical profile tests were performed for all patients on three separate occasions. Bilateral simultaneous or unilateral venograms were performed on the sixth or seventh postoperative day and perfusion lung scans preoperatively and on the seventh or eighth postoperative day. Further venograms were performed in all patients who had thrombi six months later. In the patients with bilateral THR, 52 (26%) venograms were positive for thrombi, while in the patients with unilateral THR 20 (20%) were positive (p = 0.89). In the patients with a cemented THR, 31 venograms (20.7%) were positive for thrombi, while in those with a cementless THR 41 (27.3%) were positive (p = 0.654). Further venograms in all 72 patients who had thrombi at six months after operation showed that they resolved completely and spontaneously regardless of their site and size. No patients had symptoms of pulmonary emboli and none were seen on the perfusion lung scans. Two patients died from unrelated causes. Although the prevailing opinion is that patients with proximal venous thrombosis should be treated with anticoagulants, our study has shown that all thrombi regardless of their site and size resolve spontaneously without associated pulmonary embolism

The natural history of primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint in adolescent patients remains unclear and there is no consensus for management of these patients. The objectives of this study were to report the natural history of primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint in adolescent patients and to identify the risk factors for recurrent dislocation. We reviewed prospectively-collected clinical and radiological data on 133 adolescent patients diagnosed with a primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint who had been managed non-operatively at our hospital between 1996 and 2008. There were 115 male (86.5%) and 18 female patients (13.5%) with a mean age of 16.3 years (13 to 18) and a mean follow-up of 95.2 months (1 to 215). During follow-up, 102 (absolute incidence of 76.7%) patients had a recurrent dislocation. The median interval between primary and recurrent dislocation was ten months (95% CI 7.4 to 12.6). Applying survival analysis the likelihood of having a stable shoulder one year after the initial injury was 59% (95% CI 51.2 to 66.8), 38% (95% CI 30.2 to 45.8%) after two years, 21% (95% CI 13.2 to 28.8) after five years, and 7% (95% CI 1.1 to 12.9) after ten years. Neither age nor gender significantly predicted recurrent dislocation during follow-up. We conclude that adolescent patients with a primary anterior dislocation of the glenohumeral joint have a high rate of recurrent dislocation, which usually occurs within two years of their initial injury: these patients should be considered for early operative stabilisation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:520–6

This paper reports on a prospective study undertaken to determine the natural history of untreated idiopathic hooked forefoot. The progress of 130 affected feet in eighty-three children was followed for an average of seven years. At review 86% of the feet were normal or only mildly deformed and all were fully mobile; 10% were still moderately deformed but were asymptomatic; 4% remained deformed and stiff. It was not possible to detect these resistant cases before the age of three years, but the low failure rate would seem to justify a policy of expectant treatment

We studied the natural history of nontraumatic avascular necrosis of the femoral head (ANFH) in 115 hips in 87 patients, 69 steroid-induced, 21 related to misuse of alcohol and 25 idiopathic. The average length of follow-up was over five years. Collapse occurred most often when the focus of bone necrosis occupied the weight-bearing surface of the femoral head. Flatness of the head due to subchondral fracture was an early manifestation of collapse. Classification into six types based upon the radiographic findings provided an accurate prognosis for individual cases of ANFH which is useful in planning treatment and in assessing its outcome

Deep infection, the most serious local complication of total hip replacement, prompted a study of the records of 135 patients (137 hips) thus afflicted in a nationwide survey of Canada. Particular attention has been paid to the natural history of the infection, and the problems of diagnosis are described. Twenty-one patients died after the insertion, or removal, of the prosthesis, and of the survivors of the original 135 patients only eighteen have been able to retain the prosthesis without further problems with the wound. The remaining patients had the prosthesis removed, and most dry wounds. Certain suggestions are made on management. The advice that a second total hip prosthesis should be inserted after a deep infection of the first implant is not supported

We have observed the natural history without treatment of 46 limbs in 29 patients with infantile tibia vara and a metaphyseal-diaphyseal angle (MDA) of more than 11°. The femorotibial angle (FTA) and MDA were measured, and Langenskiöld’s classification of radiological changes in the proximal medial metaphysis of the tibia was used. In 22 limbs which were not in Langenskiöld stages II to III the condition resolved spontaneously without treatment. Of the remaining 24 which were in stages II to III, in 18 it resolved spontaneously by the age of six years, but six showed little or no improvement at the latest follow-up. It was impossible to differentiate by measuring the FTA or MDA whether spontaneous resolution could be expected before the age of four years. There was no difference in the rate of resolution of the deformity between those patients who had been treated by a brace and those who had received no treatment. We advise no initial treatment but review at six-monthly intervals until the age of four years, even in patients with Langenskiöld stage-II to stage-III deformity. When a deformity persisted or progressed we carried out a corrective osteotomy after the age of four years

1. The natural history and prognosis of progressive infantile idiopathic scoliosis are reviewed and twenty-eight cases are reported. 2. Resolving infantile idiopathic scoliosis is described and seven cases are reported. 3. The length of the curve, the degree of rotation, the age of onset of deterioration, and the rate of progression are the important factors in determining the type and severity of the deformity. 4. Infantile idiopathic scoliosis is briefly compared with congenital scoliosis

We reviewed 47 patients with neurofibromatosis and dystrophic spinal deformities; 32 of these patients had been untreated for an average of 3.6 years and in them the natural history was studied. The commonest pattern of deformity at the time of presentation was a short angular thoracic scoliosis, but with progression the angle of kyphosis also increased. Deterioration during childhood was usual but its rate was variable. Severe dystrophic changes in the apical vertebrae and in particular anterior scalloping have a poor prognosis for deterioration. The dystrophic spinal deformity of neurofibromatosis requires early surgical stabilisation which should be by combined anterior and posterior fusion if there is an abnormal angle of kyphosis or severely dystrophic apical vertebrae. Some carefully selected patients can be treated by posterior fusion and instrumentation alone

To determine the natural history of dislocation of the hip in cerebral palsy, and to evolve methods to predict dislocation, the notes and radiographs of 462 patients with cerebral palsy were reviewed. Dislocation occurred in 10% of patients by progressive migration and subluxation of the proximal femur in the presence of acetabular dysplasia. Statistical analysis identified the radiographic features that helped to predict dislocation. Measurement of acetabular index, by a method that allows for rotation of the acetabulum, was the most powerful single predictor. Measurement of this index at two and four years of age could identify patients who would dislocate unless effective treatment was undertaken, those at risk of dislocation only if scoliosis developed, and those who would not dislocate. On the basis of this method of screening for dislocation, a logical system of surgical prophylaxis is proposed

A total of 60 children and adolescents with rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) was seen between 1980 and 1990. Observation of the 23 patients who were treated conservatively revealed that the natural history of the injury resulted in severe instability and poor function of the knee. Associated meniscal tears were present in 15 knees. Three osteochondral fractures occurred and osteoarthritic changes developed in ten knees. In 1990 therefore we introduced reconstruction of the ACL with a four-strand hamstring graft using an anatomical placement with transphyseal tunnels and anchorage well away from the growth plate. Over a period of nine years, 47 knees underwent reconstruction. The mean follow-up was 49 months (12 to 96). No child suffered physeal damage or leg-length discrepancy. The results were satisfactory in 77% and there was little difference between patients treated before the adolescent growth spurt and those treated during or after this time. These results, however, were not as good as those seen in adults during the same period

We report the results of conservative treatment of stage III and stage IV avascular necrosis of bone (AVN) affecting the hip or knee in renal transplant patients. Twenty-nine patients were followed for a mean period of five years. Conservative management was successful in controlling symptoms in 40% of those with AVN of the hip and in 70% of those with AVN of the knee. Knowledge of the natural history of AVN is important because of the long survival times after renal transplantation

The natural history of spontaneous osteonecrosis of the medial tibial plateau remains controversial and incomplete. We have studied 21 patients (aged between 53 and 77 years) with clinical and scintigraphic features of spontaneous osteonecrosis of the medial tibial plateau who were observed prospectively for at least three years (37 months to 8.5 years). The mean duration of follow-up was 5.6 years. The mean duration of symptoms at presentation was 4.7 weeks (3 days to 12 weeks). Radiographs of the affected knee at the first visit were normal in 15 patients and mildly arthritic in six. The characteristic radiographic lesion of osteonecrosis was noted at presentation in five of the mildly arthritic knees and during the evolution of the disease in eight of the radiographically normal knees. During the follow-up, subchondral sclerosis of the affected medial tibial plateau was noted in 16 knees. There are three distinct patterns of outcome: 1) acute extensive collapse of the medial tibial plateau in two knees within three months of onset; 2) rapid progression to varying degrees of osteoarthritis in 12 knees, in eight within a year, in all within two years and deterioration of the pre-existing osteoarthritis in three; and 3) complete resolution in four knees, two of which were normal at presentation and two mildly osteoarthritic. The two patients with acute extensive collapse and three who had rapid progression to severe osteoarthritis required total knee arthroplasty. We conclude that osteonecrosis of the medial tibial plateau progresses in most cases to significant degenerative disease of the knee

A study of the natural history and aetiology of deep vein thrombosis in 499 patients after total hip replacement is presented. Deep vein thrombosis was diagnosed by scanning the leg for 125Iodine-labelled fibrinogen for a period of 14 to 18 days and by ascending phlebography. It has been shown that deep vein thrombosis occurs ater than in patients who have undergone abdominal operations, and the risk period is longer. The peak of onset of thrombosis is on the fourth day after the hip replacement. Attempts at prophylaxis using subcutaneous heparin or intermittent pneumatic compression of the calves delay the appearance of thrombosis. Analysis of possible aetiology factors shows that the age of the patient, the degenerative disease of the hip, the surgical approach, and under-transfusion of blood, all have a significant effect on the incidence of thrombosis

We have evaluated prospectively the incidence and location of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT), the risk factors for pulmonary embolism, and the natural history of thrombosis after total knee replacement (TKR) in patients who did not receive prophylactic or therapeutic treatment for DVT. We studied 227 patients who underwent primary TKR; 116 had one-stage bilateral and 111 unilateral procedures. Coagulation assays, the full blood count and blood typing tests for the serum chemical profile were undertaken in all patients on three separate occasions. Bilateral simultaneous or unilateral venograms were carried out at six or seven days after operation. Perfusion lung scanning was undertaken before and at seven or eight days after operation. Bilateral simultaneous or unilateral venograms were repeated six months after operation in all patients who had thrombi. In the 116 patients with a bilateral replacement, 97 of 232 venograms (41.8%) were positive for fresh thrombi while there were 46 positive venograms (41.4%) in the 111 patients with a unilateral replacement (p = 1.000). Of the 116 venograms in knees with a cemented replacement, 45 (38.8%) were positive for thrombi while 52 of the 116 venograms (44.8%) were positive in those with a cementless replacement (p = 0.675). Further venograms at six months after operation in all 143 limbs which had thrombi showed that all had completely resolved regardless of the size or location. No pulmonary embolism occurred as shown by negative perfusion lung scans and the absence of symptoms. Although the current prevailing opinion is that patients with thrombosis in the proximal veins should receive anticoagulant treatment, our study has shown that all thrombi regardless of their size or location resolved without causing pulmonary embolism

We have determined the natural history of hip development in 42 patients with multiple epiphyseal dysplasia (MED). Premature osteoarthritis was a frequent outcome and was almost inevitable before the age of 30 years in those with incongruent hips. There were two types of immature hips: type I, the more severe form, had a fragmented and flattened ossific nucleus and acetabular dysplasia, was misshapen at skeletal maturity and osteoarthritic by 30 years of age; the milder type II hip had a small, rounded, uniformly ossified nucleus and a more normal acetabulum. Type II hips were well formed at maturity and were less prone to premature osteoarthritis. Considerable variations were noted in the manifestations of MED between families but not within families. The prognosis of a child's hip could be predicted; in sporadic cases from the type of immature hip, and in familial cases by also taking into account the outcome of affected relatives

One hundred consecutive closed fractures of the adult tibial shaft treated by closed methods were surveyed prospectively in order to observe their natural history. The fractures were analysed with regards to speed of healing and the influence of age, sex, causal force, radiological morphology and concurrent fibular fracture. At 20 weeks 19 fractures had not yet united, but 15 of these had united by 30 weeks with conservative treatment alone. The remaining four cases were operated upon because no further progress in healing was anticipated. These findings suggest that, with regard to healing, open reduction and internal fixation is rarely justified in closed adult tibial shaft fractures

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the natural history of rheumatoid disease of the shoulder over an eight-year period. Our hypothesis was that progression of the disease is associated with a decrease in function with time.

A total of 22 patients (44 shoulders; 17 women, 5 men, (mean age 63)) with rheumatoid arthritis were followed for eight years. All shoulders were assessed using the Constant score, anteroposterior radiographs (Larsen score, Upward-Migration-Index (UMI)) and ultrasound (US). At final follow-up, the Short Form-36, disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (DASH) Score, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and use of anti-rheumatic medication were determined.

The mean Constant score was 72 points (50 to 88) at baseline and 69 points (25 to 100) at final follow-up. Radiological evaluation showed progressive destruction of the peri-articular structures with time. This progression of joint and rotator cuff destruction was significantly associated with the Constant score. However, at baseline only the extent of rotator cuff disease and the UMI could predict the Constant score at final follow-up.

A plain anteroposterior radiograph of the shoulder is sufficient to assess any progression of rheumatoid disease and to predict functional outcome in the long term by using the UMI as an indicator of rotator cuff degeneration.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1520–4.

A small proportion of patients have persistent pain after total knee replacement (TKR). The primary aim of this study was to record the prevalence of pain after TKR at specific intervals post-operatively and to ascertain the impact of neuropathic pain. The secondary aim was to establish any predictive factors that could be used to identify patients who were likely to have high levels of pain or neuropathic pain after TKR.

A total of 96 patients were included in the study. Their mean age was 71 years (48 to 89); 54 (56%) were female. The mean follow-up was 46 months (39 to 51). Pre-operative demographic details were recorded including a Visual Analogue Score (VAS) for pain, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression score as well as the painDETECT score for neuropathic pain. Functional outcome was assessed using the Oxford Knee score.

The mean pre-operative VAS was 5.8 (1 to 10); and it improved significantly at all time periods post-operatively (p < 0.001): (from 4.5 at day three to five (1 to 10), 3.2 at six weeks (0 to 9), 2.4 at three months (0 to 7), 2.0 at six months (0 to 9), 1.7 at nine months (0 to 9), 1.5 at one year (0 to 8) and 2.0 at mean 46 months (0 to 10)). There was a high correlation (r > 0.7; p < 0.001) between the mean VAS scores for pain and the mean painDETECT scores at three months, one year and three years post-operatively. There was no correlation between the pre-operative scores and any post-operative scores at any time point.

We report the prevalence of pain and neuropathic pain at various intervals up to three years after TKR. Neuropathic pain is an underestimated problem in patients with pain after TKR. It peaks at between six weeks and three-months post-operatively. However, from these data we were unable to predict which patients are most likely to be affected.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1227–33.

We have treated 15 patients with massive lumbar disc herniations non-operatively. Repeat MR scanning after a mean 24 months (5 to 56) showed a dramatic resolution of the herniation in 14 patients. No patient developed a cauda equina syndrome.

We suggest that this condition may be more benign than previously thought.