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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 8 | Pages 865 - 870
1 Aug 2024
Broida SE Sullivan MH Rose PS Wenger DE Houdek MT

Aims

Venous tumour thrombus (VTT) is a rare finding in osteosarcoma. Despite the high rate of VTT in osteosarcoma of the pelvis, there are very few descriptions of VTT associated with extrapelvic primary osteosarcoma. We therefore sought to describe the prevalence and presenting features of VTT in osteosarcoma of both the pelvis and the limbs.

Methods

Records from a single institution were retrospectively reviewed for 308 patients with osteosarcoma of the pelvis or limb treated between January 2000 and December 2022. Primary lesions were located in an upper limb (n = 40), lower limb (n = 198), or pelvis (n = 70). Preoperative imaging and operative reports were reviewed to identify patients with thrombi in proximity to their primary lesion. Imaging and histopathology were used to determine presence of tumour within the thrombus.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 8 | Pages 783 - 791
1 Aug 2024
Tanaka S Fujii M Kawano S Ueno M Nagamine S Mawatari M

Aims

The aim of this study was to determine the clinical outcomes and factors contributing to failure of transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum (TOA), a type of spherical periacetabular osteotomy, for advanced osteoarthritis secondary to hip dysplasia.

Methods

We reviewed patients with Tönnis grade 2 osteoarthritis secondary to hip dysplasia who underwent TOA between November 1998 and December 2019. Patient demographic details, osteotomy-related complications, and the modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS) were obtained via medical notes review. Radiological indicators of hip dysplasia were assessed using preoperative and postoperative radiographs. The cumulative probability of TOA failure (progression to Tönnis grade 3 or conversion to total hip arthroplasty) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product-limited method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of failure.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 7 | Pages 720 - 727
1 Jul 2024
Wu H Wang X Shen J Wei Z Wang S Xu T Luo F Xie Z

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes associated with culture-negative limb osteomyelitis patients. Methods. A total of 1,047 limb osteomyelitis patients aged 18 years or older who underwent debridement and intraoperative culture at our clinic centre from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2020 were included. Patient characteristics, infection eradication, and complications were analyzed between culture-negative and culture-positive cohorts. Results. Of these patients, 264 (25.2%) had negative cultures. Patients with a culture-negative compared with a culture-positive status were more likely to have the following characteristics: younger age (≤ 40 years) (113/264 (42.8%) vs 257/783 (32.8%); p = 0.004), a haematogenous aetiology (75/264 (28.4%) vs 150/783 (19.2%); p = 0.002), Cierny-Mader host A (79/264 (29.9%) vs 142/783 (18.1%); p < 0.001), antibiotic use before sampling (34/264 (12.9%) vs 41/783 (5.2%); p<0.001), fewer taken samples (n<3) (48/264 (18.2%) vs 60/783 (7.7%); p<0.001), and less frequent presentation with a sinus (156/264 (59.1%) vs 665/783 (84.9%); p < 0.001). After initial treatments of first-debridement and antimicrobial, infection eradication was inferior in culture-positive osteomyelitis patients, with a 2.24-fold increase (odds ratio 2.24 (95% confidence interval 1.42 to 3.52)) in the redebridement rate following multivariate analysis. No statistically significant differences were found in long-term recurrence and complications within the two-year follow-up. Conclusion. We identified several factors being associated with the culture-negative result in osteomyelitis patients. In addition, the data also indicate that culture negativity is a positive prognostic factor in early infection eradication. These results constitute the basis of optimizing clinical management and patient consultations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):720–727


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 6 | Pages 540 - 547
1 Jun 2024
Nandra RS Elnahal WA Mayne A Brash L McBryde CW Treacy RBC

Aims

The Birmingham Hip Resurfacing (BHR) was introduced in 1997 to address the needs of young active patients using a historically proven large-diameter metal-on-metal (MoM) bearing. A single designer surgeon’s consecutive series of 130 patients (144 hips) was previously reported at five and ten years, reporting three and ten failures, respectively. The aim of this study was to extend the follow-up of this original cohort at 25 years.

Methods

The study extends the reporting on the first consecutive 144 resurfacing procedures in 130 patients for all indications. All operations were undertaken between August 1997 and May 1998. The mean age at operation was 52.1 years (SD 9.93; 17 to 76), and included 37 female patients (28.5%). Failure was defined as revision of either component for any reason. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed. Routine follow-up with serum metal ion levels, radiographs, and Oxford Hip Scores (OHSs) was undertaken.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 4 | Pages 380 - 386
1 Apr 2024
Cho J Lee S Kim D Oh W Koh I Chun Y Choi Y

Aims. The study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of arthroscopic debridement and partial excision in patients with traumatic central tears of the triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC), and to identify prognostic factors associated with unfavourable clinical outcomes. Methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients arthroscopically diagnosed with Palmer 1 A lesions who underwent arthroscopic debridement and partial excision from March 2009 to February 2021, with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients were assessed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire, Mayo Wrist Score (MWS), and visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain. The poor outcome group was defined as patients whose preoperative and last follow-up clinical score difference was less than the minimal clinically important difference of the DASH score (10.83). Baseline characteristics, arthroscopic findings, and radiological factors (ulnar variance, MRI, or arthrography) were evaluated to predict poor clinical outcomes. Results. A total of 114 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean follow-up period of 29.8 months (SD 14.4). The mean DASH score improved from 36.5 (SD 21.5) to 16.7 (SD 14.3), the mean MWS from 59.7 (SD 17.9) to 79.3 (SD 14.3), and the mean VAS pain score improved from 5.9 (SD 1.8) to 2.2 (SD 2.0) at the last follow-up (all p < 0.001). Among the 114 patients, 16 (14%) experienced poor clinical outcomes and ten (8.8%) required secondary ulnar shortening osteotomy. Positive ulnar variance was the only factor significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes (p < 0.001). Positive ulnar variance was present in 38 patients (33%); among them, eight patients (21%) required additional operations. Conclusion. Arthroscopic debridement alone appears to be an effective and safe initial treatment for patients with traumatic central TFCC tears. The presence of positive ulnar variance was associated with poor clinical outcomes, but close observation after arthroscopic debridement is more likely to be recommended than ulnar shortening osteotomy as a primary treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):380–386


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 1 | Pages 99 - 106
1 Jan 2024
Khal AA Aiba H Righi A Gambarotti M Atherley O'Meally AO Manfrini M Donati DM Errani C

Aims. Low-grade central osteosarcoma (LGCOS), a rare type of osteosarcoma, often has misleading radiological and pathological features that overlap with those of other bone tumours, thereby complicating diagnosis and treatment. We aimed to analyze the clinical, radiological, and pathological features of patients with LGCOS, with a focus on diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 49 patients with LGCOS (Broder’s grade 1 to 2) treated between January 1985 and December 2017 in a single institute. We examined the presence of malignant features on imaging (periosteal reaction, cortical destruction, soft-tissue invasion), the diagnostic accuracy of biopsy, surgical treatment, and oncological outcome. Results. Based on imaging, 35 of 49 patients (71.4%) exhibited malignant features. Overall, 40 of 49 patients (81.6%) had undergone a biopsy before en-bloc resection: 27 of 40 patients (67.5%) were diagnosed on the first biopsy, which was more accurate when carried out by open rather than needle biopsy (91.3% vs 35.3% diagnostic accuracy, respectively; p < 0.001). Of the 40 patients treated by en-bloc resection, surgical margins were wide in 38 (95.0%) and marginal in two (5.0%). Furthermore, nine of 49 patients (18.4%) underwent curettage (intralesional margin) without previous biopsy. All patients with a positive margin developed local recurrence. Distant metastases occurred in five of 49 patients (10.2%). The mean five-year overall survival (OS) and distant relapse-free survival (D-RFS) were 89.3% (SD 5.1%) and 85.7% (SD 5.5%), respectively. Univariate analysis showed that the occurrence of distant metastasis was a poor prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio 11.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.92 to 69.17; p < 0.001). Local recurrence was a poor prognostic factor for D-RFS (HR 8.72, 95% CI 1.69 to 45.0; p = 0.002). Conclusion. The diagnosis of LGCOS can be challenging because it may present with non-malignant features and has a low diagnostic accuracy on biopsy. If precisely diagnosed, LGCOS can be successfully treated by surgical excision with wide margins. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):99–106


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1286 - 1293
1 Dec 2023
Yang H Cheon J Jung D Seon J

Aims

Fungal periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) are rare, but their diagnosis and treatment are highly challenging. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical outcomes of patients with fungal PJIs treated with two-stage exchange knee arthroplasty combined with prolonged antifungal therapy.

Methods

We reviewed our institutional joint arthroplasty database and identified 41 patients diagnosed with fungal PJIs and treated with two-stage exchange arthroplasty after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) between January 2001 and December 2020, and compared them with those who had non-fungal PJIs during the same period. After propensity score matching based on age, sex, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, and Charlson Comorbidity Index, 40 patients in each group were successfully matched. The surgical and antimicrobial treatment, patient demographic and clinical characteristics, recurrent infections, survival rates, and relevant risk factors that affected joint survivorship were analyzed. We defined treatment success as a well-functioning arthroplasty without any signs of a PJI, and without antimicrobial suppression, at a minimum follow-up of two years from the time of reimplantation.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 12 | Pages 1321 - 1326
1 Dec 2023
Schlenzka T Serlo J Viljakka T Tallroth K Helenius I

Aims

We aimed to assess the cumulative risk of total hip arthroplasty (THA) from in situ fixation for slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) after a follow-up of almost 50 years.

Methods

In this study, 138 patients with 172 affected hips treated with in situ fixation were evaluated retrospectively. A total of 97 patients (70%) were male and the mean age was 13.6 years (SD 2.1); 35 patients (25%) had a bilateral disease. The median follow-up time was 49 years (interquartile range 43 to 55). Basic demographic, stability, and surgical details were obtained from patient records. Preoperative radiographs (slip angle; SA) were measured, and data on THA was gathered from the Finnish National Arthroplasty Register.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1206 - 1215
1 Nov 2023
Ladegaard TH Sørensen MS Petersen MM

Aims

We first sought to compare survival for patients treated surgically for solitary and multiple metastases in the appendicular skeleton, and second, to explore the role of complete and incomplete resection (R0 and R1/R2) in patients with a solitary bony metastasis in the appendicular skeleton.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study on a population-based cohort of all adult patients treated surgically for bony metastases of the appendicular skeleton between January 2014 and December 2019. We excluded patients in whom the status of bone metastases and resection margin was unknown. Patients were followed until the end of the study or to their death. We had no loss to follow-up. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis (with log-rank test) to evaluate patient survival. We identified 506 operations in 459 patients. A total of 120 operations (in 116 patients) were for solitary metastases and 386 (in 345 patients) for multiple metastases. Of the 120 operations, 70 (in 69 patients) had no/an unknown status of visceral metastases (solitary group) and 50 (in 49 patients) had visceral metastases. In the solitary group, 45 operations (in 44 patients) were R0 (resections for cure or complete remission) and 25 (in 25 patients) were R1/R2 (resections leaving microscopic or macroscopic tumour, respectively). The most common types of cancer in the solitary group were kidney (n = 27), lung (n = 25), and breast (n = 20).


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1216 - 1225
1 Nov 2023
Fujiwara T Kunisada T Nakata E Mitsuhashi T Ozaki T Kawai A

Aims. Clear cell sarcoma (CCS) of soft-tissue is a rare melanocytic subtype of mesenchymal malignancy. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and therapeutic factors associated with increased survival, stratified by clinical stage, in order to determine the optimal treatment. Methods. The study was a retrospective analysis involving 117 patients with histologically confirmed CCS, between July 2016 and November 2017, who were enrolled in the Bone and Soft Tissue Tumour Registry in Japan. Results. The five- and ten-year survival rates were 41% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29 to 52) and 37% (95% CI 25 to 49), respectively. On multivariable analysis, the size of the tumour of > 10 cm (p = 0.006), lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis (p < 0.001), distant metastases at the time of diagnosis (p < 0.001), and no surgery for the primary tumour (p = 0.019) were independently associated with a poor survival. For N0M0 CCS (n = 68), the development of distant metastases was an independent prognostic factor for survival (early (< 12 months), hazard ratio (HR) 116.78 (95% CI 11.69 to 1,166.50); p < 0.001; late (> 12 months), HR 14.79 (95% CI 1.66 to 131.63); p = 0.016); neoadjuvant/adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.895) and/or radiotherapy (p = 0.216) were not significantly associated with survival. The five-year cumulative incidence of local recurrence was 19% (95% CI 8 to 35) and the size of the tumour was significantly associated with an increased rate of local recurrence (p = 0.012). For N1M0 CCS (n = 18), the risk of mortality was significantly lower in patients who underwent surgery for both the primary tumour and lymph node metastases (HR 0.03 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.56); p = 0.020). For M1 CCS (n = 31), excision of the primary tumour was independently associated with better survival (HR 0.26 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.76); p = 0.013). There was no significant difference in survival between the different types of systemic treatment (p = 0.523). Conclusion. Complete excision of the primary tumour and lymph nodes is associated with a better survival in patients with CCS. Systemic treatment appears to provide limited benefits, demonstrating a pressing need for novel systemic agents. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1216–1225


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 7 | Pages 729 - 734
1 Jul 2023
Borghi A Gronchi A

Desmoid tumours are a rare fibroblastic proliferation of monoclonal origin, arising in deep soft-tissues. Histologically, they are characterized by locally aggressive behaviour and an inability to metastasize, and clinically by a heterogeneous and unpredictable course. Desmoid tumours can occur in any anatomical site, but commonly arise in the limbs. Despite their benign nature, they can be extremely disabling and sometimes life-threatening, causing severe pain and functional limitations. Their surgical management is complex and challenging, due to uncertainties surrounding the biological and clinical behaviour, rarity, and limited available literature. Resection has been the first-line approach for patients with a desmoid tumour but, during the last few decades, a shift towards a more conservative approach has occurred, with an initial ‘wait and see’ policy. Many medical and regional forms of treatment are also available for the management of this condition, and others have recently emerged with promising results. However, many areas of controversy remain, and further studies and global collaboration are needed to obtain prospective and randomized data, in order to develop an appropriate shared stepwise approach.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):729–734.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 6 | Pages 679 - 687
1 Jun 2023
Lou Y Zhao C Cao H Yan B Chen D Jia Q Li L Xiao J

Aims. The aim of this study was to report the long-term prognosis of patients with multiple Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) involving the spine, and to analyze the risk factors for progression-free survival (PFS). Methods. We included 28 patients with multiple LCH involving the spine treated between January 2009 and August 2021. Kaplan-Meier methods were applied to estimate overall survival (OS) and PFS. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with PFS. Results. Patients with multiple LCH involving the spine accounted for 15.4% (28/182 cases) of all cases of spinal LCH: their lesions primarily involved the thoracic and lumbar spines. The most common symptom was pain, followed by neurological dysfunction. All patients presented with osteolytic bone destruction, and 23 cases were accompanied by a paravertebral soft-tissue mass. The incidence of vertebra plana was low, whereas the oversleeve-like sign was a more common finding. The alkaline phosphatase was significantly higher in patients with single-system multifocal bone LCH than in patients with multisystem LCH. At final follow-up, one patient had been lost to follow-up, two patients had died, three patients had local recurrence, six patients had distant involvement, and 17 patients were alive with disease. The median PFS and OS were 50.5 months (interquartile range (IQR) 23.5 to 63.1) and 60.5 months (IQR 38.0 to 73.3), respectively. Stage (hazard ratio (HR) 4.324; p < 0.001) and chemotherapy (HR 0.203; p < 0.001) were prognostic factors for PFS. Conclusion. Pain is primarily due to segmental instability of the spine from its destruction by LCH. Chemotherapy can significantly improve PFS, and radiotherapy has achieved good results in local control. The LCH lesions in some patients will continue to progress. It may initially appear as an isolated or single-system LCH, but will gradually involve multiple sites or systems. Therefore, long-term follow-up and timely intervention are important for patients with spinal LCH. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):679–687


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 5 | Pages 467 - 470
1 May 2023
McBryde CW Prakash R Haddad FS


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 4 | Pages 400 - 411
15 Mar 2023
Hosman AJF Barbagallo G van Middendorp JJ

Aims

The aim of this study was to determine whether early surgical treatment results in better neurological recovery 12 months after injury than late surgical treatment in patients with acute traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI).

Methods

Patients with tSCI requiring surgical spinal decompression presenting to 17 centres in Europe were recruited. Depending on the timing of decompression, patients were divided into early (≤ 12 hours after injury) and late (> 12 hours and < 14 days after injury) groups. The American Spinal Injury Association neurological (ASIA) examination was performed at baseline (after injury but before decompression) and at 12 months. The primary endpoint was the change in Lower Extremity Motor Score (LEMS) from baseline to 12 months.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 3 | Pages 323 - 330
1 Mar 2023
Dunbar NJ Zhu YM Madewell JE Penny AN Fregly BJ Lewis VO

Aims. Internal hemipelvectomy without reconstruction of the pelvis is a viable treatment for pelvic sarcoma; however, the time it takes to return to excellent function is quite variable. Some patients require greater time and rehabilitation than others. To determine if psoas muscle recovery is associated with changes in ambulatory function, we retrospectively evaluated psoas muscle size and limb-length discrepancy (LLD) before and after treatment and their correlation with objective functional outcomes. Methods. T1-weighted MR images were evaluated at three intervals for 12 pelvic sarcoma patients following interval hemipelvectomy without reconstruction. Correlations between the measured changes and improvements in Timed Up and Go test (TUG) and gait speed outcomes were assessed both independently and using a stepwise multivariate regression model. Results. Increased ipsilesional psoas muscle size from three months postoperatively to latest follow-up was positively correlated with gait speed improvement (r = 0.66). LLD at three months postoperatively was negatively correlated with both TUG (r = -0.71) and gait speed (r = -0.61). Conclusion. This study suggests that psoas muscle strengthening and minimizing initial LLD will achieve the greatest improvements in ambulatory function. LLD and change in hip musculature remain substantial prognostic factors for achieving the best clinical outcomes after internal hemipelvectomy. Changes in psoas size were correlated with the amount of functional improvement. Several patients in this study did not return to their preoperative ipsilateral psoas size, indicating that monitoring changes in psoas size could be a beneficial rehabilitation strategy. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):323–330


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 2 | Pages 109 - 111
1 Feb 2023
Karjalainen T Buchbinder R

Tennis elbow (lateral epicondylitis or lateral elbow tendinopathy) is a self-limiting condition in most patients. Surgery is often offered to patients who fail to improve with conservative treatment. However, there is no evidence to support the superiority of surgery over continued nonoperative care or no treatment. New evidence also suggests that the prognosis of tennis elbow is not influenced by the duration of symptoms, and that there is a 50% probability of recovery every three to four months. This finding challenges the belief that failed nonoperative care is an indication for surgery. In this annotation, we discuss the clinical and research implications of the benign clinical course of tennis elbow.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):109–111.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1256 - 1265
1 Nov 2022
Keene DJ Alsousou J Harrison P O’Connor HM Wagland S Dutton SJ Hulley P Lamb SE Willett K

Aims

To determine whether platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection improves outcomes two years after acute Achilles tendon rupture.

Methods

A randomized multicentre two-arm parallel-group, participant- and assessor-blinded superiority trial was undertaken. Recruitment commenced on 28 July 2015 and two-year follow-up was completed in 21 October 2019. Participants were 230 adults aged 18 years and over, with acute Achilles tendon rupture managed with non-surgical treatment from 19 UK hospitals. Exclusions were insertion or musculotendinous junction injuries, major leg injury or deformity, diabetes, platelet or haematological disorder, medication with systemic corticosteroids, anticoagulation therapy treatment, and other contraindicating conditions. Participants were randomized via a central online system 1:1 to PRP or placebo injection. The main outcome measure was Achilles Tendon Rupture Score (ATRS) at two years via postal questionnaire. Other outcomes were pain, recovery goal attainment, and quality of life. Analysis was by intention-to-treat.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1202 - 1208
1 Nov 2022
Klasan A Rice DA Kluger MT Borotkanics R McNair PJ Lewis GN Young SW

Aims

Despite new technologies for total knee arthroplasty (TKA), approximately 20% of patients are dissatisfied. A major reason for dissatisfaction and revision surgery after TKA is persistent pain. The radiological grade of osteoarthritis (OA) preoperatively has been investigated as a predictor of the outcome after TKA, with conflicting results. The aim of this study was to determine if there is a difference in the intensity of pain 12 months after TKA in relation to the preoperative radiological grade of OA alone, and the combination of the intensity of preoperative pain and radiological grade of OA.

Methods

The preoperative data of 300 patients who underwent primary TKA were collected, including clinical information (age, sex, preoperative pain), psychological variables (depression, anxiety, pain catastrophizing, anticipated pain), and quantitative sensory testing (temporal summation, pressure pain thresholds, conditioned pain modulation). The preoperative radiological severity of OA was graded according to the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) classification. Persistent pain in the knee was recorded 12 months postoperatively. Generalized linear models explored differences in postoperative pain according to the KL grade, and combined preoperative pain and KL grade. Relative risk models explored which preoperative variables were associated with the high preoperative pain/low KL grade group.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 8 | Pages 963 - 971
1 Aug 2022
Sun Z Liu W Liu H Li J Hu Y Tu B Wang W Fan C

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 7 | Pages 792 - 800
1 Jul 2022
Gustafsson K Kvist J Zhou C Eriksson M Rolfson O

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate time to arthroplasty among patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), and to identify factors at enrolment to first-line intervention that are prognostic for progression to surgery. Methods. In this longitudinal register-based observational study, we identified 72,069 patients with hip and knee OA in the Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis Register (BOA), who were referred for first-line OA intervention, between May 2008 and December 2016. Patients were followed until the first primary arthroplasty surgery before 31 December 2016, stratified into a hip and a knee OA cohort. Data were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Results. At five years, Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 46% (95% confidence interval (CI) 44.6 to 46.9) of those with hip OA, and 20% (95% CI 19.7 to 21.0) of those with knee OA, had progressed to arthroplasty. The strongest prognostic factors were desire for surgery (hazard ratio (HR) hip 3.12 (95% CI 2.95 to 3.31), HR knee 2.72 (95% CI 2.55 to 2.90)), walking difficulties (HR hip 2.20 (95% CI 1.97 to 2.46), HR knee 1.95 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.20)), and frequent pain (HR hip 1.56 (95% CI 1.40 to 1.73), HR knee 1.77 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.00)). In hip OA, the probability of progression to surgery was lower among those with comorbidities (e.g. ≥ four conditions; HR 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.69)), with no detectable effects in the knee OA cohort. Instead, being overweight or obese increased the probability of OA progress in the knee cohort (HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.37)), but not among those with hip OA. Conclusion. Patients with hip OA progressed faster and to a greater extent to arthroplasty than patients with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by patients’ desire for surgery and by factors related to severity of OA symptoms, but factors not directly related to OA symptoms are also of importance. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery within five years, especially among those with knee OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):792–800