The aim of this research was to determine biomechanical markers which differentiate medial knee osteoarthritis (OA) patients who do and do not show structural progression over a 2-year period.

A cohort of 36 subjects was selected from a longitudinal study (Meireles et al 2017) using Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scores at baseline and 2-year follow-up. The cohort consisted of 10 healthy controls (HC) (KL=0 at both time points), 15 medial knee OA non-progressors (NPKOA) (KL≥1 at baseline and no change over 2 years), and 11 medial knee OA progressors (PKOA) (KL≥1 at baseline and increase of ≥1 over 2 years). 3D integrated motion capture data from three walking trials were processed through a musculoskeletal modelling framework (Smith et al 2016) to estimate knee joint loading parameters (i.e., magnitude of mean contact pressure, and centre of pressure (COP)). Parameters at first and second peak were extracted and compared between groups using Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests.

Higher magnitudes were observed in PKOA vs NPKOA, and PKOA vs HC groups at both time points. Additionally, a posterior (1st and 2nd peak), and lateral (2nd peak) shift in medial compartment COP was shown between PKOA and NPKOA, and PKOA and HC subjects. Interestingly, in the studied parameters, no differences were observed between NPKOA and HC groups.

Significantly higher magnitude, and a more posterior and lateral COP was observed between PKOA and NPKOA patients. These differences, combined with an absence of difference between NPKOA and HC suggest structural OA progression is driven by a combination of altered loading magnitude and location. These results may serve as guidelines for targeted gait retraining rehabilitation to slow or stop knee OA progression whereby shifting COP anterior and medial and reducing magnitude by ~22% may shift patients from a PKOA to a NPKOA trajectory.