Advances in cancer therapy have prolonged patient survival even in the presence of disseminated disease and an increasing number of cancer patients are living with metastatic bone disease (MBD). The proximal femur is the most common long bone involved in MBD and pathologic fractures of the femur are associated with significant morbidity, mortality and loss of quality of life (QoL).

Successful prophylactic surgery for an impending fracture of the proximal femur has been shown in multiple cohort studies to result in longer survival, preserved mobility, lower transfusion rates and shorter post-operative hospital stays. However, there is currently no optimal method to predict a pathologic fracture. The most well-known tool is Mirel's criteria, established in 1989 and is limited from guiding clinical practice due to poor specificity and sensitivity. The ideal clinical decision support tool will be of the highest sensitivity and specificity, non-invasive, generalizable to all patients, and not a burden on hospital resources or the patient's time. Our research uses novel machine learning techniques to develop a model to fill this considerable gap in the treatment pathway of MBD of the femur. The goal of our study is to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict fracture risk when metastatic bone disease is present in the proximal femur.

Our fracture risk prediction tool was developed by analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive MBD patients presenting from 2009–2016. Patients with primary bone tumors, pathologic fractures at initial presentation, and hematologic malignancies were excluded. A total of 546 patients comprising 114 pathologic fractures were included. Every patient had at least one Anterior-Posterior X-ray and clinical data including patient demographics, Mirel's criteria, tumor biology, all previous radiation and chemotherapy received, multiple pain and function scores, medications and time to fracture or time to death.

We have trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) with AP X-ray images of 546 patients with metastatic bone disease of the proximal femur. The digital X-ray data is converted into a matrix representing the color information at each pixel. Our CNN contains five convolutional layers, a fully connected layers of 512 units and a final output layer. As the information passes through successive levels of the network, higher level features are abstracted from the data. The model converges on two fully connected deep neural network layers that output the risk of fracture. This prediction is compared to the true outcome, and any errors are back-propagated through the network to accordingly adjust the weights between connections, until overall prediction accuracy is optimized. Methods to improve learning included using stochastic gradient descent with a learning rate of 0.01 and a momentum rate of 0.9.

We used average classification accuracy and the average F1 score across five test sets to measure model performance. We compute F1 = 2 x (precision x recall)/(precision + recall). F1 is a measure of a model's accuracy in binary classification, in our case, whether a lesion would result in pathologic fracture or not. Our model achieved 88.2% accuracy in predicting fracture risk across five-fold cross validation testing. The F1 statistic is 0.87.

This is the first reported application of convolutional neural networks, a machine learning algorithm, to this important Orthopaedic problem. Our neural network model was able to achieve reasonable accuracy in classifying fracture risk of metastatic proximal femur lesions from analysis of X-rays and clinical information. Our future work will aim to externally validate this algorithm on an international cohort.

Post-discharge surveillance of surgical site infection is necessary if accurate rates of infection following surgery are to be available. We undertook a prospective study of 376 knee and hip replacements in 366 patients in order to estimate the rate of orthopaedic surgical site infection in the community. The inpatient infection was 3.1% and the post-discharge infection rate was 2.1%. We concluded that the use of telephone interviews of patients to identify the group at highest risk of having a surgical site infection (those who think they have an infection) with rapid follow-up by a professional trained to diagnose infection according to agreed criteria is an effective method of identifying infection after discharge from hospital.