FORECAST is a prospective longitudinal cohort study exploring mechanism-based prognostic factors for pain persistence in sciatica. Here, we share an update on this largest deeply-phenotyped primary care sciatica cohort. Our cohort includes 180 people with sciatica (score >4 on Stynes’ Sum Score), aged 18–85, within 3 months of symptom onset. Psychosocial factors, self-reported sensory profiling, clinical examination, quantitative sensory testing (QST), biological samples (blood and skin samples), and Magnetic Resonance Neurography of lumbar nerve roots were collected at baseline. Pain persistence was determined at three and twelve months with the Sciatica Bothersomeness Index (SBI) and a numeric pain rating scale (NRS) as primary outcomes. Recruitment nears completion, with 160 participants enrolled to date. 127 and 96 participants have completed 3 and 12 months follow-up respectively. Overall, 56% of our cohort are female, with a mean age (SD) of 54.14yrs (16.57). Ethnicity data approximates local populations. SBI at baseline was (median [IQR]) 13[10-17], and interim longitudinal data shows stepwise improvement at 3 and 12 months. Baseline ‘average’ pain intensity was 5.56 (2.15) for leg pain, and 4.14(2.82) for low back pain (LBP). Overall, pain scores decreased at 3 and 12 months, with greater reductions in leg pain than LBP at 12 months. However, around 55–80% and 40–65% of people reported persistent pain at 3 and 12 months respectively.Background
Methods/results
Both overall spine shape and the size and shape of individual vertebrae undergo rapid growth and development during early childhood. Motor development milestones such as age of walking influence spine development, with delayed ambulation linked with spinal conditions including spondylolysis. However, it is unclear whether associations between motor development and spine morphology persist into older age. Therefore, these associations were examined using data from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a large nationally-representative British cohort, followed up since birth in 1946. Statistical shape modelling was used to characterise spinal shape (L5-T10) and identify modes of variation in shape (SM) from dual energy x-ray absorptiometry images of the spine taken at age 60–64 years (N=1327 individuals; 51.8% female). Associations between walking age in months (reported by mothers at 2 years) and SMs were examined with adjustment for sex, birthweight, socioeconomic position, height, lean mass and fat mass. Later onset of independent walking was weakly associated with greater lordosis (SM1; Purpose and Background
Methods and Results
To investigate associations between sagittal thoracolumbar spine shape with sex and measures of adiposity throughout adulthood. Thoracolumbar spine shape was characterised using statistical shape modelling on lateral dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry images, recorded for vertebral fracture analysis, of the spine from 1529 participants of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, acquired at age 60–64 years. Associations between spine shape modes (SM) and 1) sex, 2) contemporaneous measures of overall and central adiposity (indicated by body mass index and waist circumference, respectively), 3) changes in total and central adiposity during earlier stages of adulthood and age at onset of overweight, were investigated.Purpose
Methods
