The purpose of this study was to define the risk and incidence of eventual ankle arthroplasty or fusion after documented ankle fracture in a large cohort, and compare that rate to matched healthy patients from the general population.

The Ontario health insurance plan (OHIP) physician billing database, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) Physician Database, the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) databases, Discharge Abstract Database (DAD) and Same Day Surgery (SDS) were used to identify patients treated surgically and non-surgically for ankle fractures. Each patient was matched to four individuals from the general population (13.5 million) with no documented prior treatment for ankle fracture, according to age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence. Fusion and replacement incidence was compared using time-to-event analysis (Kaplan-Meier). A Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to explore the influence of patient, provider and surgical factors on time to surgery.

We identified 45,444 (58.8% female, mean age 48.7 years) and 140, 629 (53.9% female, mean age 47.1 years) patients who had undergone open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) or non-operative management of an ankle fracture (NOA), respectively. Among ORIF patients, n=237 (0.5%) and n=69 (0.15%) patients underwent fusion or arthroplasty after a median 2.8 and 6.9 years, respectively. Among non-operatively treated ankle fractures, n=198 (0.14%) and n=36 (0.03%) patients underwent fusion or arthroplasty after a median of 3.2 and 5.6 years, respectively. Surgical treatment (vs. non-operatively treated fracture), older age, greater co-morbidity and a history of infection post fracture significantly increased the risk of eventual fusion or arthroplasty (HR 3.6 (3.1–4.3), p < 0 .001, HR 1.01 (1.01–1.02), p=0.009, HR 1.2 (1.1–1.3), p < 0 .001, HR 11.3 (6.8–18.7), p < 0 .001, respectively). Compared to matched controls, the risk of fusion/arthroplasty was not independent of time, following an exponential decay pattern. ORIF patient risk was 20 times greater than the general population in the first three years post-ORIF, and approached the risk of non-operatively treated patients (HR 4.5 (95CI: 3.5–5.8), p < 0 .0001) by approximately 14 years out from injury on time and comorbidity adjusted KM curves.

Rates of fusion/arthroplasty are very low after ORIF and non-operative treatment of an ankle fracture in the general population of a public healthcare system. Utilization patterns suggest fusion is more common earlier, and arthroplasty remote, which may be a factor of patient age, injury severity, and complications from initial injury/surgery. Patients who underwent ORIF have >20 times the risk of fusion/arthroplasty in the short-term, however, the risk decreases over time eventually approaching that of non-operatively treated patients (∼4.5x the general population) when compared to non-fractured controls.