There is lacking evidence about the prognostic role of anxiety as prognostic in acute low back pain patients. The objective of this study was to determine whether patients with acute low back pain (ALBP) are at risk to develop chronic low back pain (CLBP) and pain-related disability after 12 weeks due to high anxiety levels. An observational multi-centre study was conducted in primary physiotherapy care with measurements at baseline and at 12 weeks including known prognostic factors and psychological candidate predictors for CLBP. Two hundred and four participants completed both assessments of which 51 and 54 were classified as having less than 50% decrease in pain and pain-related disability, respectively. For pain, the final model contained higher pain intensity, longer pain duration, depression symptoms, and state anxiety with explained variance 0.30, sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.82, Likelihood Ratio 4.1 (95% CI 2.0 to 6.1) and Area Under the Curve 0.78 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.85). For pain-related disability, trait anxiety, depression symptoms, and state anxiety contributed independently to the prediction with the model's explained variance of 0.19, sensitivity 0.78, specificity 0.78, Likelihood Ratio 3.0 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.5), and Area Under the Curve 0.73 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.81).Purpose and background
Methods and results
