To determine the risk of total knee replacement (TKR) for primary osteoarthritis (OA) associated with overweight/obesity in the Australian population.

This population-based study analyzed 191,723 cases of TKR collected by the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Registry and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The time-trend change in incidence of TKR relating to BMI was assessed between 2015-2018. The influence of obesity on the incidence of TKR in different age and gender groups was determined. The population attributable fraction (PAF) was then calculated to estimate the effect of obesity reduction on TKR incidence.

The greatest increase in incidence of TKR was seen in patients from obese class III. The incidence rate ratio for having a TKR for obesity class III was 28.683 at those aged 18-54 years but was 2.029 at those aged >75 years. Females in obesity class III were 1.7 times more likely to undergo TKR compared to similarly classified males. The PAFs of TKR associated with overweight or obesity was 35%, estimating 12,156 cases of TKR attributable to obesity in 2018. The proportion of TKRs could be reduced by 20% if overweight and obese population move down one category.

Obesity has resulted in a significant increase in the incidence of TKR in the youngest population in Australia. The impact of obesity is greatest in the young and the female population. Effective strategies to reduce the national obese population could potentially reduce 35% of the TKR, with over 10,000 cases being avoided.