There is an ever increasing demand for Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) in Trauma and Orthopaedic Surgery. Patient recruitment is often challenging. Among other factors, individual surgeon's preference is often quoted as a major obstacle. Collective equipoise based on present or imminent controversy in the expert medical community has been proposed as a solution, but could not help in everyday running of a trial. We wanted to develop a new trial eligibility assessment tool using the Collective Equipoise Principle. We developed an online system that quantifies collective uncertainty among a group of surgeons for an individual clinical case in real time. This data was collected for patients in the UK Heel Fracture Trial (UK HeFT) as an independent research project. Both patients who agreed or not to take part in the trial were approached in six weeks follow up clinic to avoid interference with clinical course. For those who agreed, anonymous clinical data together with images (Xrays and CT) was published on a secure on line forum and registered surgeons were alerted via email and SMS. Surgeons submitted their opinion instantly via specially designed interactive voting scale. 80:20 ethical uncertainty distribution limit was applied using Subjective Logic to calculate an Uncertainty Index (UnIx) for every patient. This approach was evaluated as an eligibility assessment tool for RCTs.Introduction
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