In conventional DXA (Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry) analysis, pixel bone mineral density (BMD) is often averaged at the femoral neck. Neck BMD constitutes the basis for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk assessment. This data averaging, however, limits our understanding of localised spatial BMD patterns that could potentially enhance fracture prediction. DXA region free analysis (RFA) is a validated toolkit for pixel-level BMD analysis. We have previously deployed this toolkit to develop a spatio-temporal atlas of BMD ageing in the femur. This study aims first to introduce bone age to reflect the overall bone structural evolution with ageing, and second to quantify fracture-specific patterns in the femur.

The study dataset comprised 4933 femoral DXA scans from White British women aged 75 years or older. The total number of fractures was 684, of which 178 were reported at the hip within a follow-up period of five years. BMD maps were computed using the RFA toolkit. For each BMD map, bone age was defined as the age for which the L2-norm between the map and the median atlas at that age is minimised. Next, bone maps were normalised for the estimated bone age. A t-test followed by false discovery rate (FDR) analysis was applied to compare between fracture and non-fracture groups.

Excluding the ageing effect revealed subtle localised patterns of loss in BMD oriented in the same direction as principal tensile curves. A new score called f-score was defined by averaging the normalised pixel BMD values over the region with FDR q-value less than 1e–6. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.731 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.689–0.761) and 0.736 (95% CI=0.694–0.769) for neck BMD and f-score. Combining bone age and f-score improved the AUC significantly by 3% (AUC=0.761, 95% CI=0.756–0.768) over the neck BMD alone (AUC=0.731, 95% CI=0.726–0.737).

This technique shows promise in characterizing spatially-complex BMD changes, for which the conventional region-based technique is insensitive. DXA RFA shows promise to further improve fracture prediction using spatial BMD distribution.