The primary objectives of this study were to: 1) identify risk factors for subsequent surgery following initial treatment of proximal humerus fractures, stratified by initial treatment type; 2) generate risk prediction tools to predict subsequent shoulder surgery following initial treatment; and 3) internally validate the discriminative ability of each tool.

We identified patients ≥ 50 years with a diagnosis of proximal humerus fracture from 2004 to 2015 using linkable health datasets in Ontario, Canada. We used procedural and fee codes within 30 days of the index fracture to classify patients into treatment groups: 1) surgical fixation; 2) shoulder replacement; and 3) conservative. We used intervention and diagnosis codes to identify all instances of complication-related subsequent shoulder surgery following initial treatment within two years post fracture. We developed logistic regression models for randomly selected two thirds of each treatment group to evaluate the association of patient, fracture, surgical, and hospital variables on the odds of subsequent shoulder surgery following initial treatment. We used regression coefficients to compute points associated with each of the variables within each category, and calculated the risk associated with each point total using the regression equation. We used the final third of each cohort to evaluate the discriminative ability of the developed risk tools (via the continuous point total and a dichotomous point cut-off value for “higher” vs. “lower” risk determined by Receiver Operating Curves) using c-statistics.

We identified 20,897 patients with proximal humerus fractures that fit our inclusion criteria for analysis, 2,414 treated with fixation, 1,065 treated with replacement, and 17,418 treated conservatively. The proportions of patients who underwent subsequent shoulder surgery within two years were 13.8%, 5.1%, and 1.3%, for fixation, replacement, and conservative groups, respectively. Predictors of reoperation following fixation included the use of a bone graft, and fixation with a nail or wire vs. a plate. The only significant predictor of reoperation following replacement was poor bone quality. The only predictor of subsequent shoulder surgery following conservative treatment was more comorbidities while patients aged 70+, and those discharged home following initial presentation (vs. admitted or transferred to another facility) had lower odds of subsequent shoulder surgery. The risk tools developed were able to discriminate between patients who did or did not undergo subsequent shoulder surgery in the derivation cohorts with c-statistics of 0.75–0.88 (continuous point total), and 0.82–0.88 (dichotomous cut-off), and 0.53–0.78 (continuous point total) and 0.51–0.79 (dichotomous cut-off) in the validation cohorts.

Our results present potential factors associated with subsequent shoulder surgery following initial treatment of proximal humerus fractures, stratified by treatment type. Our developed risk tools showed good to strong discriminative ability in both the derivation and validation cohorts for patients treated with fixation, and conservatively. This indicates that the tools may be useful for clinicians and researchers. Future research is required to develop risk tools that incorporate clinical variables such as functional demands.

Rotator cuff injuries represent a significant burden to the health care system, affecting more than 30% of the population over the age of sixty. Despite the advanced surgical techniques that are available, poor results are sometimes seen in a subset of patients receiving surgical treatment for their rotator cuff disease. The reasons for this failure of treatment remain unclear, particularly if the surgery was ‘technically’ successful. An increasing body of evidence has demonstrated a strong correlation between pre-operative psychological factors and functional outcome following several orthopaedic procedures. This association, however, has not been fully demonstrated or effectively investigated in the context of rotator cuff treatment. The main objective for this study was to conduct a systematic review to determine the impact of psychosocial factors on the outcome of treatment in patients with rotator cuff disease.

A systematic search was conducted of Medline, CINAHL, and PsychInfo databases for articles published from database inception until September 2018. The titles and abstracts were screened for all of the studies obtained from the initial search. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied, and a full text review was conducted on those studies meeting the eligibility criteria.

A total of 1252 studies were identified. Following removal of duplicates and application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 46 studies underwent a full-text review. Ten studies were included in the final analysis. A total of 1,206 patients, with a mean follow-up of 13 months, were included. Three studies examined patient expectations prior to treatment. All three found that higher expectations prior to treatment led to a significantly improved outcome following both operative and non-operative treatment.

Three studies assessed the association between pre-operative general psychological measures and post-operative pain and function. All three studies found patients with worse pre-operative general psychological scores demonstrated increased post-operative pain. Two of the studies also found a negative association with post-operative function, while one of the studies found no association with post-operative function. Three studies assessed the impact of pre-operative anxiety and depression on outcomes following surgical treatment of rotator cuff disease. Only one of the studies found a negative association with post-operative pain and function. The remaining two studies found no association between anxiety or depression and any outcomes following surgery. Finally, one study examined the impact of general distress on outcomes following the surgical treatment of rotator cuff disease and found no association with post-operative levels of pain or function.

The results of this systematic review indicate that there is somewhat conflicting and contradictory evidence within the literature. Overall, however, there does appear to be an association between pre-operative psychological factors and post-operative function and pain, in that higher levels of pre-operative psychological dysfunction are predictive of poorer function and increased pain following the treatment of rotator cuff disease.

Current literature comparing the effect on body mass index (BMI) on the outcome of total hip replacements (THR) is inconclusive. To describe the effect of BMI on THR over the first five years.

We prospectively recruited 1,617 patients undergoing primary THR for osteoarthritis and followed them up at 5 years, recording, dislocations, revisions, deep and superficial infections, Harris Hip scores (HHS) and SF-36. A multivariate analysis was performed to identify if BMI is an independent predictor of adverse outcome.

148 (9%) patients had a BMI >35. 6.8% of patients with a BMI >35 had a dislocation by 5 year post op compared with 3.2%BMI 30–34.9, 2% BMI 25–29.9 and 1.5% BMI<25 (p=0.03) Superficial infections 14.2% BMI >35, 4.4% BMI <25. In SF 36 scores only Mental Health and change in health had no significant differences with an increase in BMI having a statistically significant decrease in all other SF scores. HHS had a mean improvement of 45.1 at five years with an expected loss of 0.302 HHS points (95% CI0.440–0.163) per 1 point BMI increase. There was no significant difference in deep infections, mortality <3 months, revision rates or length of stay.

The most significant risk in increasing BMI is the dislocation rate, possibly representing increased technical difficulty in larger patients. Whilst increasing BMI has a reduced HHS and SF16 score, the overall benefit is still positive.