The aim was to predict the number and incidence of distal radius fractures in Scotland over the next two decades according to age group, categorised into under 65yrs(65) and 65yrs and older (65), and estimate the potential increased operative burden.

The number of distal radius fractures in Scotland was isolated from the Global Burden of Disease database and this was used, in addition to historic population data and published population estimates, to create a multivariable model allowing incorporation of age group, sex and time. A Negative Binomial distribution was used to predict incidence in 2030 and 2040 and calculate projected number of fractures. A 20.4% operative intervention rate was assumed (local data).

In terms of number of fractures, there was a projected 61% rise in the 65 group with an overall increase of 2099 fractures per year from 3417 in 2020 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2960 – 3463) to 5516 in 2040 (95% CI 4155 – 5675). This was associated with 428 additional operative interventions per year for those 65yrs. The projected increase between 2020 and 2040 was similar in both sexes (60% in females, 63% in males), however the absolute increase in fracture number was higher in females. There was a 4% projected fall in the number of fractures in those 65.

Incidence of distal radius fractures is expected to considerably increase over the next two decades due to a projected increase in the number of fractures in the elderly. This has implications for associated morbidity and healthcare resource use.

Aims

Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care.

To compare the long-term outcomes of fibular nailing and plate fixation for unstable ankle fractures in a cohort of patients under the age of 65 years.

Patients from a previously conducted randomized control trial comparing fibular nailing and plate fixation were contacted at a minimum of 10 years post intervention at a single study centre. Short term data were collected prospectively and long-term data were collected retrospectively using an electronic patient record software.

Ninety-nine patients from one trauma centre were included (48 fibular nails and 51 plate fixations). Groups were matched for gender (p = 0.579), age (p = 0.811), body mass index (BMI)(p = 0.925), smoking status (p = 0.209), alcohol status (p = 0.679) and injury type (p = 0.674). Radiographically at an average of 2 years post-injury, there was no statistically significant difference between groups for development of osteoarthritis (p = 0.851). Both groups had 1 tibio-talar fusion (2% of both groups) secondary to osteoarthritis with no statistically significant difference in overall re-operation rate between groups identified (p = 0.518,). Forty-five percent (n=42) of patients had so far returned patient reported outcome measures at a minimum of 10 years (Fibular nail n=19, plate fixation n=23). No significant difference was found between groups at 10 years for the Olerud and Molander Ankle Score (p = 0.990), the Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire (p = 0.288), Euroqol-5D Index (p = 0.828) and Euroqol-5D Visual Analogue Score (p = 0.769).

The current study illustrates no difference between fibular nail fixation and plate fixation at a long-term follow up of 10 years in patients under 65 years old, although the study is currently under powered.

To develop a reliable and effective radiological score to assess the healing of isolated ulnar shaft fractures (IUSF), the Radiographic Union Score for Ulna fractures (RUSU).

Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a non-operatively managed ulnar shaft fracture were selected and scored by three blinded observers. After intraclass correlation (ICC) analysis, a second group of 54 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury (18 who developed a nonunion and 36 who united) were scored by the same observers.

In the initial study, interobserver and intraobserver ICC were 0.89 and 0.93, respectively. In the validation study the interobserver ICC was 0.85. The median score for patients who united was significantly higher than those who developed a nonunion (11 vs 7, p<0.001). A ROC curve demonstrated that a RUSU ≤8 had a sensitivity of 88.9% and specificity of 86.1% in identifying patients at risk of nonunion. Patients with a RUSU ≤8 (n = 21) were more likely to develop a nonunion (n = 16/21) than those with a RUSU ≥9 (n = 2/33; OR 49.6, 95% CI 8.6–284.7). Based on a PPV of 76%, if all patients with a RUSU ≤8 underwent fixation at 6-weeks, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.3.

The RUSU shows good interobserver and intraobserver reliability and is effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion six weeks after fracture. This tool requires external validation but may enhance the management of patients with isolated ulnar shaft fractures.

COVID-19 confers a three-fold increased mortality risk among hip fracture patients. The aims were to investigate whether vaccination was associated with: i) lower mortality risk, and ii) lower likelihood of contracting COVID-19 within 30 days of fracture.

This nationwide cohort study included all patients aged >50 years with a hip fracture between 01/03/20-31/12/21. Data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit were collected and included: demographics, injury and management variables, discharge destination, and 30-day mortality status. These variables were linked to population-level records of COVID-19 vaccination and testing.

There were 13,345 patients with a median age of 82.0 years (IQR 74.0–88.0), and 9329/13345 (69.9%) were female. Of 3022/13345 (22.6%) patients diagnosed with COVID-19, 606/13345 (4.5%) were COVID-positive within 30 days of fracture. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that vaccinated patients were less likely to be COVID-positive (odds ratio (OR) 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.34–0.48, p<0.001) than unvaccinated patients. 30-day mortality rate was higher for COVID-positive than COVID-negative patients (15.8% vs 7.9%, p < 0.001). Controlling for confounders (age, sex, comorbidity, deprivation, pre-fracture residence), unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 had a greater mortality risk than COVID-negative patients (OR 2.77, CI 2.12–3.62, p < 0.001), but vaccinated COVID19-positive patients were not at increased risk (OR 0.93, CI 0.53–1.60, p = 0.783).

Vaccination was associated with lower COVID-19 infection risk. Vaccinated COVID-positive patients had a similar mortality risk to COVID-negative patients, suggesting a reduced severity of infection. This study demonstrates the efficacy of vaccination in this vulnerable patient group, and presents essential data for future outbreaks.

The aims were to assess whether vitamin D deficiency influenced mortality risk for patients presenting with a hip fracture.

A retrospective study was undertaken including all patients aged over 50 years that were admitted with a hip fracture to a single centre during a 24-month period. Serum vitamin D levels were assessed. Patient demographics and perioperative variables and mortality were collected. Cox regression analysis (adjusting for confounding) was utilised to determine the independent association between serum vitamin D level and patient mortality.

The cohort consisted of 2075 patients with a mean age of 80.7 years and 1471 (70.9%) were female. 1510 (72.8%) patients had a serum vitamin D level taken, of which 876 (58.0%) were deficient (<50nmol/l). The median follow up was 417 (IQR 242 to 651) days. During follow up there were 464 (30.7%) deaths. Survival at 1 year was significantly (p = 0.003) lower for patients who were vitamin D deficient (71.7%, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 68.6 to 74.9) compared to those who were not (79.0%, 95% CI 75.9 to 82.3). Vitamin D deficiency was also independently associated with an increased mortality risk at 2-years (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.71, p = 0.03), but not at 1-year (p = 0.08).

Hip fracture patients with vitamin D deficiency had an increased mortality risk. This risk was independent of confounders at 2 years. The role of measuring vitamin D levels in these patients is unclear. Improved public health policy about vitamin D may be required to reduce deficiency in this patient population.

Hip fracture patients are vulnerable to delirium. This study examined the associations between delirium and outcomes including mortality, length of stay, post-discharge care requirements, and readmission.

This cohort study collected validated healthcare data for all hip fracture patients aged ≥50 years that presented to a high-volume centre between March 2020-November 2021. Variables included: demographics, delirium status, COVID-19 status, treatment factors, and outcome measures. Wilcoxon rank sum or Chi-squared tests were used for baseline differences, Cox proportional hazard regression for mortality, logistic regression for post-discharge care requirements and readmission, and linear regression for length of stay. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, pre-fracture residence type and COVID-19.

There were 1822 patients (mean age 81 years; 72% female) of which 496/1822 (27.2%) had delirium (4AT score ≥4). Of 371/1822 (20.4%) patients that died within 180 days of admission, 177/371 (47.7%) had delirium during the acute stay. Delirium was associated with an increased 30- and 180-day mortality risk (adjusted HR 1.74 (95%CI 1.15-2.64; p=0.009 and 1.74 (1.36-2.22; p<0.001), respectively), ten day longer total inpatient stay [adj. B.coef 9.80 (standard error 2.26); p<0.001] and three-fold greater odds of higher care requirements on discharge [Odds Ratio 3.07 (95% Confidence Interval 2.27-4.15; p<0.001)].

More than a quarter of patients had delirium during the hip fracture stay, and this was independently associated with increased mortality, longer length of stay, and higher post-discharge care requirements. These findings are relevant for prognostication and service planning, and emphasise the importance of effective delirium screening and evidence-based interventions in this vulnerable population.

The aims of this study in relation to distal radius fractures were to determine (1) the floor and ceiling effects for the QuickDASH and PRWE, (2) the floor and ceiling effects when defined to be within the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of the minimal or maximal scores, (3) the degree to which patients with a floor or ceiling effect felt that their wrist was ‘normal’, and (4) patent factors associated with a floor or ceiling effect.

A retrospective cohort study of patients sustaining a distal radius fracture during a single year was undertaken. Outcome measures included the QuickDASH, PRWE, EQ-5D-3L and normal wrist score.

There were 526 patients with a mean age of 65yrs and 77% were female. Most patients were managed non-operatively (73%, n=385). The mean follow-up was 4.8yrs. A ceiling effect was observed for both the QuickDASH (22.3%) and PRWE (28.5%). When defined to be within the MCID of the best score, the effect increased to 62.8% for the QuickDASH and 60% for PRWE. Patients that achieved the best functional outcome according to the QuickDASH and PRWE felt their wrist was only 91% and 92% normal, respectively. Sex (p=0.000), age (p=0.000), dominant wrist injury (p=0.006 for QuickDASH and p=0.038 for PRWE), fracture type (p=0.015), and a better health-related quality of life (p=0.000) were independently associated with achieving a ceiling score.

The QuickDASH and PRWE demonstrated ceiling effects following a distal radius fracture. Patients achieving ceiling scores did not consider their wrist to be ‘normal’ for them.

We aim to determine the differences in lower limb joint kinematics during the golf swing of patients who had undergone Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) and a control group of native knee golfers.

A case-control study was undertaken with ten golfers who had undergone TKA (cruciate retaining single radius implant) and five age and matched golfers with native knees. Each golfer performed five swings with a driver whilst being recorded at 200Hz by a ten-camera motion capture system. Knee and hip three-dimensional joint angles (JA) and joint angular velocities (JAV) were calculated and statistically compared between the groups at six swing events.

The only significant differences in knee joint kinematics between TKA and control groups was a lower external rotation JA in the left knee during the backswing (p=0.010). There was no significant difference in knee JAV between the groups. Both hips demonstrated significantly (p=0.023 for left and p=0.037 for right) lower flexion in the TKA group during the takeaway swing event, and there was lower internal rotation in the backswing and greater external rotation in the downswing of the right hip. There was also slower left hip extension JAV in the downswing.

Normal knee kinematics were observed during the golf swing following TKA, with the exception of reduced external rotation in the left knee during the back swing and the right during the down swing. The differences demonstrated in the hip motion indicate that they may make compensatory movements to adjust to the reduced external rotation demonstrated in the knee.

The primary aim was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of routine operative fixation for all patients with humeral shaft fractures. The secondary aim was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of using a Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU)<8 to facilitate selective fixation for patients at risk of nonunion.

From 2008-2017, 215 patients (mean age 57yrs [17–81], 61% female) with a non-operatively managed humeral diaphyseal fracture were retrospectively identified. Union was achieved in 77% (n=165/215) after non-operative management, with 23% (n=50/215) uniting after nonunion surgery. The EuroQol Five-Dimension (EQ-5D) Health Index was obtained via postal survey. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <£20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was considered cost-effective.

At a mean of 5.4yrs (1.2–11.0), the mean EQ-5D was 0.736. Multiple regression demonstrated that uniting after nonunion surgery was independently associated with an inferior EQ-5D (beta=0.103, p=0.032). Routine fixation for all patients to reduce the nonunion rate would be associated with increased treatment costs (£1,542/patient) but confer a potential EQ-5D benefit of 0.120/patient. The ICER of routine fixation was £12,850/QALY gained. Selective fixation, based upon a RUSHU<8 at 6wks post-injury, would be associated with reduced treatment costs (£415/patient) and confer a potential EQ-5D benefit of 0.335 per ‘at-risk patient’.

Routine fixation for patients with humeral shaft fractures, to reduce the nonunion rate observed after non-operative management, appears to be cost-effective at 5yrs post-injury. Selective fixation for patients at risk of nonunion based upon the RUSHU may confer greater cost-effectiveness, given the potential savings and improvement in EQ-5D.

This study aims to determine the lifetime risk of revision surgery after primary knee arthroplasty (KA).

The Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset was utilised to identify all patients undergoing primary KA during the period 1998–2019. The cumulative incidence function for revision and death was calculated and adjusted analyses utilised cause-specific Cox regression modelling to determine the influence of patient-factors. The lifetime risk was calculated for patients aged between 45–99 years using multiple decrement lifetable methodology.

The lifetime risk of revision ranged between 32.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 22.62–47.31) for patients aged 45–49 years and 0.63% (95%CI 0.1–4.5) for patients aged over 90 years. Adjusted analyses demonstrated the converse effect of age on revision (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.5, 95%CI 0.5–0.6) and death (HR 3.5, 95%CI 3.4–3.7). Male sex was associated with increased risks of revision (HR 1.1, 95%CI 1.1–1.2) and death (HR 1.4, 95%CI 1.3–1.4). Patients with inflammatory arthropathy had a higher risk of death (HR 1.7, 95%CI 1.7–1.8), but were less likely to be revised (HR 0.85, 95%CI 0.74–0.98) than those treated for osteoarthritis. Patients with greater number of comorbidities and greater levels of socio-economic deprivation were at increased risk of death, but neither increased the risk of revision.

The lifetime risk of revision knee arthroplasty varies depending on patient sex, age at surgery and underlying diagnosis. Patients aged between 45 and 49 years have a one in three probability of revision surgery within their lifetime. Conversely, patients aged 90 years or over were very unlikely to experience revision.

This study aims to determine satisfaction rates after hip and knee arthroplasty in patients who did not initially respond to PROMs, characteristics of non-responders, and contact preferences to maximise response rates. We performed a prospective cohort study of 709 patients undergoing THA and 737 patients undergoing TKA in a single centre in 2018. EQ-5D health related quality of life score and Oxford Hip/knee scores (OHS/OKS) were completed preoperatively and at 1year postoperatively via post when satisfaction was also assessed. Univariate, multivariate and receiver operator curve analysis were performed.

151/709 (21.2%) hip patients were non-responders, 83 (55.0%) of whom were contactable. 108/737 (14.6%) knee patients were non-responders, 91 (84.3%) of whom were contactable. There was no difference in satisfaction after arthroplasty between initial non-responders and responders for hips (74/81 vs 476/516, p=0.847) or knees (81/93 vs 470/561, p=0.480). Initial and persistent non-response was associated with younger age, higher BMIs and significantly worse preoperative PROMS for both hip and knee patients (p=0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that younger age, higher BMI and poorer pre-operative OHS were independently associated with persistent non-response to hip PROMs (p<0.05). For the entire cohort (n=1352) patients <67 years were less likely to respond to postal PROMs with OR 0.63 (0.558 to 0.711). Using a threshold of >66.4 years predicted a preference for contact by post with 65.4% sensitivity and 68.1% specificity (AUC 0.723 (0.647-0.799 95%CI, p<0.001)).

Most initial non-responders were ultimately contactable with effort. Satisfaction rates were not inferior in patients who did not initially respond to PROMs.

The primary aim was to assess whether patients waiting 6-months or more for a total hip (THA) or knee (KA) arthroplasty had a deterioration in their health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Secondary aims were to assess change in level of frailty and the number living in a state worse than death (WTD).

Eight-six patients waiting for a primary TKA or KA for more than 6-months were selected at random from waiting lists in three centres. Patient demographics, waiting time, EuroQol 5-dimension (EQ-5D) and visual analogue scores (EQ-VAS), Rockwood clinical frailty score (CFS) and SF-36 subjective change in HRQoL were recorded at the time of and for a timepoint 6-months prior to assessment. The study was powered to the EQ-5D (primary measure of HRQoL).

There were 40 male and 46 female patients with a mean age of 68 (33 to 91) years; 65 patients were awaiting a THA and 21 a TKA. The mean waiting time was 372 (226 to 749) days. The EQ-5D index deteriorated by 0.222 (95%CI 0.164 to 0.280, p<0.001). The EQ-VAS also deteriorated by 10.8 (95%CI 7.5 to 14.0, p<0.001). CFS progressed from a median of 3 to 4 (p<0.001). The number of patients WTD increased from seven to 22 (p<0.001). Thirty-one(36%) patients felt their HRQoL was much worse and 28 (33%) felt it was somewhat worse.

Patients waiting more than 6-months had a clinically significant deterioration in their HRQoL and demonstrated increasing level of frailty with more than a quarter living in a health state WTD.

The aim of this study was to identify factors independently associated with symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) following acute Achilles tendon rupture (ATR), and to suggest a clinical VTE risk assessment tool for patients with ATR.

From 2010–2018, 984 consecutive adults (median age 47yrs, 73% male) sustaining an ATR were retrospectively identified. There were 95% managed non-operatively (below-knee cast 52%, n=507/984; walking boot 44%, n=432/984), with 5% (n=45/984) undergoing primary operative repair (<6wks). VTE was diagnosed using medical records and national imaging archives, reviewed at a mean of 5yrs (1–10) post-injury. Regression was performed to identify factors independently associated with VTE.

Incidence of VTE within 90 days of ATR was 3.6% (n=35/984; deep vein thrombosis 2.1% [n=21/984], pulmonary embolism 1.9% [n=19/984]). Age ≥50yrs (adjusted OR [aOR] 2.3, p=0.027), personal history of VTE/thrombophilia (aOR 6.1, p=0.009) and family history of VTE (aOR 20.9, p<0.001) were independently associated with VTE. These non-modifiable risk factors were incorporated into a VTE risk assessment tool. 23% of patients developing VTE (n=8/35) had a relevant personal or family history, but incorporating age into the tool identified 69% of patients with VTE (n=24/35). Non weight-bearing ≥2wks after ATR was also independently associated with VTE (aOR 3.2, p=0.026).

Age ≥50 years, personal history of VTE/thrombophilia and a positive family history were independently associated with VTE following ATR. Incorporating age into our suggested VTE risk assessment tool enhanced sensitivity in identifying at-risk patients. Early weight-bearing in an appropriate orthosis may be beneficial in VTE risk reduction.

This international multicentre retrospective cohort study aimed to assess: 1) prevalence of COVID-19 in hip fracture patients, 2) effect on mortality, and 3) clinical factors associated mortality among COVID-19-positive patients.

A collaboration among 112 centres in 14 nations collected data on all patients with a hip fracture between 1st March-31st May 2020. Patient, injury and surgical factors were recorded, and outcome measures included admission duration, COVID-19 and 30-day mortality status.

There were 7090 patients and 651 (9.2%) were COVID-19-positive. COVID-19 was independently associated with male sex (p=0.001), residential care (p<0.001), inpatient fall (p=0.003), cancer (p=0.009), ASA grade 4–5 (p=0.008; p<0.001), and longer admission (p<0.001). Patients with COVID-19 had a significantly lower chance of 30-day survival versus those without (72.7% versus 92.6%, p<0.001), and COVID-19 was independently associated with increased 30-day mortality risk (p<0.001). Increasing age (p=0.028), male sex (p<0.001), renal (p=0.017) and pulmonary disease (p=0·039) were independently associated with higher 30-day mortality risk in patients with COVID-19 when adjusting for confounders.

The prevalence of COVID-19 in hip fracture patients was 9% and was independently associated with a three-fold increased 30-day mortality risk. Clinical factors associated with mortality among COVID-19-positive hip fracture patients were identified for the first time. This is the largest study, and the only global cohort, reporting on the effect of COVID-19 in hip fracture patients. The findings provide a benchmark against which to determine vaccine efficacy in this vulnerable population and are especially important in the context of incomplete vaccination programmes and the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains.

The Olympia femoral stem is a stainless steel, anatomically shaped, polished and three-dimensionally tapered implant designed for use in cemented total hip arthroplasty (THA). The primary aim of this study was to determine the long-term survivorship, radiographic outcome, and patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) of the Olympia stem.

Between May 2003 and December 2005, 239 patients (264 THAs) underwent a THA with an Olympia stem in our institution. PROMs were assessed using the Oxford Hip Score (OHS), EuroQol-5 dimensions (EQ-5D) score and patient satisfaction at mean 10-years following THA. Patient records and radiographs were then reviewed at a mean of 16.5 years (SD 0.7, 15.3 to 17.8) following THA to identify occurrence of complications or revision surgery for any cause.

Mean patient age at surgery was 68.0 years (SD 10.9, 31–93 years). There were 156 women (65%, 176 THAs). Osteoarthritis was the indication for THA in 204 patients (85%). Stem survivorship at 10 years was 99.2% (95 % confidence interval [CI], 97.9%-100%) and at 15 years was 97.5% (94.6%–100%). The 15-year stem survival for aseptic loosening was 100%. Only one occurrence of peri-prosthetic fracture was identified, with no episodes of dislocation found. At a mean of 10 (SD 0.8, 8.7 –11.3) years follow-up, mean OHS was 39 (SD 10.3, range 7 – 48) and 94% of patients reported being very satisfied or satisfied.

The Olympia stem demonstrated excellent 10-year PROMs, very high rates of stem survivorship and negligible peri-prosthetic fracture and dislocation rate at final follow-up beyond 15 years.

The primary aim was to determine the rate of complications and re-intervention rate in a consecutive series of operatively managed distal radius fractures.

Data was retrospectively collected on 304 adult distal radius fractures treated at our institution in a year. Acute unstable displaced distal radius fractures surgically managed within 28 days of injury were included. Demographic and injury data, as well as details of complications and their subsequent management were recorded.

There were 304 fractures in 297 patients. The mean age was 57yrs and 74% were female. Most patients were managed with open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) (n=278, 91%), with 6% (n=17) managed with manipulation and Kirschner wires and 3% (n=9) with bridging external fixation. Twenty-seven percent (n=81) encountered a post-operative complication. Complex regional pain syndrome was most common (5%, n=14), followed by loss of reduction (4%). Ten patients (3%) had a superficial wound infection managed with oral antibiotics. Deep infection occurred in one patient. Fourteen percent (n=42) required re-operation. The most common indication was removal of metalwork (n=27), followed by carpal tunnel decompression (n=4) and revision ORIF (n=4). Increasing age (p=0.02), male gender (p=0.02) and high energy mechanism of injury (p<0.001) were associated with developing a complication. High energy mechanism was the only factor associated with re-operation (p<0.001).

This study has documented the complication and re-intervention rates following distal radius fracture fixation. Given the increased risk of complications and the positive outcomes reported in the literature, non-operative management of displaced fractures should be considered in older patients.

According to the Scottish Arthroplasty Project the mean inpatient LoS following a Total Hip Replacement (THR) has fallen from 10.3 days in 2001 to only 3.9 days. This reduction in patient LoS has lead units in the UK to follow the example of centres around the world in offering THR as a day case procedure. In this study we examine data gathered from the first 18 months of day case THR within a district general hospital elective orthopaedics unit.

Data was collected prospectively from all patients undergoing THR within our district general hospital elective orthopaedic unit. Patients were selected to day case THR group via consultant review at outpatient clinic and anaesthetic assessment at pre-assessment clinics. Between August 2018 and February 2020 (18 months) 40 patients successfully underwent day case THR. None of the patients discharged home where readmitted within the next 30 days. The average age of successful day case THRs was 60 years old. The at 6 months post-op mean OHS was 45.1 and at 1 year post-op the mean score was 47.2. The average improvement in OHS was 21.1 at 6 months and 26.9 at 1 year post-op. All of the patients successfully discharged as day cases where satisfied with their care and all but one would recommend it to their friends and family.

We have shown that day case THR is not only possible within an NHS district general hospital but gives exceptional patient outcomes with excellent patient satisfaction.

The primary aim was to identify patient and injury factors independently associated with humeral diaphyseal fracture nonunion after non-operative management. The secondary aim was to determine the effect of management (operative/non-operative) on nonunion.

Over a ten-year period, 734 humeral diaphyseal fractures (732 consecutive patients) were retrospectively identified from a trauma database. Follow-up was available for 663 fractures (662 patients; median age 57yrs [16–96], 54% female [n=359/662]) which formed the study cohort. Patient and injury characteristics were recorded. There were 523 patients (79%) managed non-operatively and 139 (21%) managed operatively. Outcome (union/nonunion) was determined from medical records and radiographs.

Median follow-up was five months (1.2–74). Nonunion occurred in 22.7% of non-operatively managed injuries (n=119/524). Multivariate analysis demonstrated pre-injury NSAIDs (adjusted OR [AOR] 40.8, 95% CI 2.6–632.3; p=0.008), being underweight (BMI <18.5kg/m2; AOR 7.3, 95% CI 1.3 to 40.2; p=0.022), overweight (BMI 25–29.9kg/m2; AOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 5.9; p=0.034) and class II obesity (BMI 35–39.9kg/m2; AOR 4.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 15.5; p=0.014) were independently associated with an increased risk of nonunion. Operative fixation was independently associated with a lower risk of nonunion (2.9%, n=4/139) than non-operative management (AOR for non-operative/operative 11.0, 95% CI 2.8 to 43.6; p=0.001). Based upon these results, five patients would need to undergo operative fixation to avoid one nonunion.

Pre-injury NSAIDs and BMI were independently associated with nonunion following non-operative management of a humeral diaphyseal fracture. Operative fixation was the independent factor most strongly associated with a lower risk of nonunion.

To evaluate if clinical recovery following midshaft clavicle fracture is associated with nonunion and determine if this has superior predictive value compared to estimation at time of injury.

A prospective study of all patients (≥16 years) who sustained a displaced midshaft clavicle fracture was performed. We assessed patient demographics, injury factors, functional scores and radiographic predictors with a standardized protocol at six-weeks. Conditional-stepwise regression was used to assess which factors independently predicted nonunion at six-months post-injury determined by CT. The nonunion predictor six-week model (NUP6) was compared against a previously validated model based on factors available at time of injury (NUP0-smoking, comminution and fracture displacement).

200 patients completed follow-up at six months. The nonunion rate was 14% (27/200). Of the functional scores, the QuickDASH had the highest accuracy on receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with a 39.8 threshold, above which was associated with nonunion (Area Under Curve (AUC) 76.8%, p<0.001).

On regression modelling QuickDASH ≥40 (p=0.001), no callus on radiograph (p=0.004) and fracture movement on examination (p=0.001) were significant predictors of nonunion. If none were present the predicted nonunion risk was 3%, found in 40% of the cohort (n=80/200). Conversely if two or more were present, found in 23.5% of the cohort, the predicted nonunion risk was 60%.

The NUP6 model appeared to have superior accuracy when compared to the NUP0 model on ROC curve analysis (AUC 87.3% vs 64.8% respectively).

Delayed assessment at six-weeks following displaced clavicle fracture enables a more accurate prediction of fracture healing.