The reported results of compression fractures are poor. These results are not influenced by the severity of compression, the fracture site or the residual deformity. Otherwise, the factors that determine a patient's recovery are unknown. This study wants to identify the factors determining a patient's recovery after surgical treatment of compression fractures of the thoracolumbar spine. Therefore, in 31 surgically treated patients the pre-injury versus the 12-month follow-up differences in back pain, in global outcome and in participation were prospectively recorded. For this, the visual analogue scale for pain (VAS scale) and the Greenough and Fraser low back outcome scale were used. Of the latter scale, the 3 questions pertaining to participation were combined to create a participation subscale. For these differences and for time lost from work multiple linear regressions with combinations of 16 possible predictors were performed. At one year patients who smoke report a 25% less favorable global outcome and return 2.8 points (out of 10) less closely to their pre-injury pain level than patients who do not smoke. Patients with a fracture at the thoraco-lumbar junction return 3.3 points less closely to their pre-injury level on the VAS scale than those with a lumbar fracture. For each decrease in 1 of the 3 education levels, the patients stay away from work 15 weeks longer. Per degree of sagittal index at follow-up, patients stay 9 days longer at home. For each increase in level of occupation the return to the pre-injury participation level is 10% less favorable. The variability of time lost from work and of recovery of global outcome, pain and participation level explained by our models is 73%, 37%, 25% and 13% respectively. Smoking, localization of the fracture at the thoraco-lumbar junction and a high pre-existent level of occupation are strong negative predictors for recovery. A lower education level and sagittal fracture deformity at follow-up are negative predictors for sick leave but might also reflect the concerns of the physician when deciding about return to work.
