Cobalt chrome alloy is commonly used in joint replacement surgery. However, it is recognised that some patients develop lymphocyte mediated delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses to this material, which may result in extensive bone and soft tissue destruction.

Phase 1. United Kingdom: From an existing database, we identified extreme phenotype patient groups following metal on metal (MoM) hip resurfacing or THR: ALVAL with low wearing prostheses; ALVAL with high wear; no ALVAL with high wear; and asymptomatic patients with implants in situ for longer than ten years. Class I and II HLA genotype frequency distributions were compared between these patients’ groups, and in silico peptide binding studies were carried out using validated methodology.

Phase 2. United Kingdom: We expanded the study to include more patients, including those with intermediary phenotypes to test whether an algorithm could be developed incorporating “risk genotypes”, patient age, sex and metal exposure. This model was trained in phase 3.

Phase 3. United Kingdom, Australia, United States. Patients from other centres were invited to give DNA samples. The data set was split in two. 70% was used to develop machine learning models to predict failure secondary to DTH. The predictions were tested using the remaining blinded 30% of data, using time-dependent AUROCs, and integrated calibration index performance statistics.

A total of 606 DNA samples, from 397 males and 209 female patients, were typed. This included 176 from patients with failed prostheses, and 430 from asymptomatic patients at a mean of >10 years follow up. C-index and ROC(t) scores suggested a high degree of discrimination, whilst the IBS indicated good calibration and further backed up the indication of high discriminatory ability. At ten years, the weighted mean survival probability error was < 4%.

At present, there are no tests in widespread clinical use which use a patient's genetic profile to guide implant selection or inform post-operative management. The algorithm described herein may address this issue and we suggest that the application may not be restricted to the field of MoM hip arthroplasty.