The primary aim was to assess the reliability of ultrasound in the assessment of humeral shaft fracture healing. The secondary aim was to estimate the accuracy of ultrasound assessment in predicting humeral shaft nonunion.

Twelve patients (mean age 54yrs [20–81], 58% [n=7/12] female) with a non-operatively managed humeral diaphyseal fracture were prospectively recruited and underwent ultrasound scanning at six and 12wks post-injury. Scans were reviewed by seven blinded observers to evaluate the presence of sonographic callus. Intra- and inter-observer reliability were determined using the weighted kappa and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Accuracy of ultrasound assessment in nonunion prediction was estimated by comparing scans for patients that united (n=10/12) with those that developed a nonunion (n=2/12).

At both six and 12wks, sonographic callus was present in 11 patients (10 united, one developed a nonunion) and sonographic bridging callus (SBC) was present in seven patients (all united). Ultrasound assessment demonstrated substantial intra- (6wk kappa 0.75, 95% CI 0.47-1.03; 12wk kappa 0.75, 95% CI 0.46-1.04) and inter-observer reliability (6wk ICC 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.83; 12wk ICC 0.76, 95% CI 0.58-0.91). Absence of sonographic callus demonstrated a sensitivity of 50%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value (PPV) 100% and negative predictive value (NPV) 91% in nonunion prediction (accuracy 92%). Absence of SBC demonstrated a sensitivity of 100%, specificity 70%, PPV 40% and NPV 100% (accuracy 75%). Of three patients at risk of nonunion based on reduced radiographic callus formation (Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures <8), one had SBC on 6wk ultrasound (and united) and the other two had non-bridging or absent sonographic callus (both developed a nonunion).

Ultrasound assessment of humeral shaft fracture healing was reliable and predictive of nonunion, and may be a useful tool in defining the risk of nonunion among patients with reduced radiographic callus formation.