We report the ten-year results for three designs of stem in 240 total hip replacements, for which subsidence had been measured on plain radiographs at regular intervals. Accurate migration patterns could be determined by the method of Einzel-Bild-Roentgen-Analyse-femoral component analysis (EBRA-FCA) for 158 hips (66%).

Of these, 108 stems (68%) remained stable throughout, and five (3%) started to migrate after a median of 54 months. Initial migration of at least 1 mm was seen in 45 stems (29%) during the first two years, but these then became stable. We revised 17 stems for aseptic loosening, and 12 for other reasons. Revision for aseptic loosening could be predicted by EBRA-FCA with a sensitivity of 69%, a specificity of 80%, and an accuracy of 79% by the use of a threshold of subsidence of 1.5 mm during the first two years. Similar observations over a five-year period allowed the long-term outcome to be predicted with an accuracy of 91%.

We discuss the importance of four different patterns of subsidence and confirm that the early measurement of migration by a reasonably accurate method can help to predict long-term outcome. Such methods should be used to evaluate new and modified designs of prosthesis.