Previous studies have shown improved outcome following surgery for spinal cord compression due to metastatic disease. Further papers have shown that many patients with metastatic disease are not referred for orthopaedic opinion. The aims of this paper are to study the survival and morbidity of patients with spinal metastatic disease who receive radiotherapy. Do patients develop instability and progressive neurological compromise? Can we predict which patients will benefit from surgery?. Retrospective review of patients receiving radiotherapy for pain relief or cord compression as a result of metastatic disease. Patients were scored with regards to Tomita and Tokuhashi, survival and for deterioration in neurology or spinal instability. 94 patients reviewed. All patients were followed up for a minimum of 1 year or until deceased. Majority of patients had a primary diagnosis of lung, prostate or breast carcinoma. Mean Tomita score of 6, Tokuhashi score 7, and mean survival following radiotherapy of 8 months. 11:94 patients referred for surgical opinion. Poor correlation with Tomita scores (-0.25) & Tokuhashi scores (0.24) to predict survival. Four patients developed progressive neurology on follow-up. One patient developed spinal instability. The remainder of the patients did not deteriorate in neurology and did not develop spinal instability. All patients with normal neurology at time of radiotherapy did not develop spinal cord compression or cauda equina at a later date. This study suggests that the vast majority of patients with spinal metastatic disease do not progress to spinal instability or cord compression, and that prophylactic surgery would not be of benefit. The predictive scoring systems remain unreliable making it difficult to select those patients who would benefit. The referral rate to spinal surgeons remains low as few patients under the care of the oncologists develop spinal complications

Several different algorithms attempt to estimate life expectancy for patients with metastatic spine disease. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group (SORG) has recently developed a nomogram to estimate survival of patients with metastatic spine disease. Whilst the use of the SORG nomogram has been validated in the international context, there has been no study to date that validates the use of the SORG nomogram in New Zealand. This study aimed to validate the use of the SORG nomogram in Aotearoa New Zealand. We collected data on 100 patients who presented to Waikato Hospital with a diagnosis of spinal metastatic disease. The SORG nomogram gave survival probabilities for each patient at each time point. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) analysis was performed to assess the predictive accuracy of the SORG score. A calibration curve was also performed, and Brier scores calculated. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed. The SORG score was correlated with 30 day (AUC = 0.72) and 90-day mortality (AUC = 0.71). The correlation between the SORG score and 90-day mortality was weaker (AUC = 0.69). Using this method, the nomogram was correct for 79 (79%) patients at 30-days, 59 patients (59%) at 90-days, and 42 patients (42%) at 365-days. Calibration curves demonstrated poor forecasting of the SORG nomogram at 30 (Brier score = 0.65) and 365 days (Brier score = 0.33). The calibration curve demonstrated borderline forecasting of the SORG nomogram at 90 days (Brier score = 0.28). Several components of the SORG nomogram were not found to be correlated with mortality. In this New Zealand cohort the SORG nomogram demonstrated only acceptable discrimination at best in predicting life 30-, 90- or 356-day mortality in patients with metastatic spinal disease