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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 6 | Pages 399 - 407
1 Jun 2023
Yeramosu T Ahmad W Satpathy J Farrar JM Golladay GJ Patel NK

Aims. To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA. Methods. Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Programme (ACS-NSQIP) database from the years 2018 to 2020. Patients with elective, unilateral rTKA procedures and a total hospital length of stay between zero and four days were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and various machine learning techniques were compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. Important and significant variables were identified from the models. Results. Of the 5,600 patients included in this study, 342 (6.1%) underwent SDD. The random forest (RF) model performed the best overall, with an internally validated AUC of 0.810. The ten crucial factors favoring SDD in the RF model include operating time, anaesthesia type, age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, race, history of diabetes, rTKA type, sex, and smoking status. Eight of these variables were also found to be significant in the MLR model. Conclusion. The RF model displayed excellent accuracy and identified clinically important variables for determining candidates for SDD following rTKA. Machine learning techniques such as RF will allow clinicians to accurately risk-stratify their patients preoperatively, in order to optimize resources and improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):399–407


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 5 | Pages 589 - 597
2 May 2022
Atrey A Pincus D Khoshbin A Haddad FS Ward S Aktar S Ladha K Ravi B

Aims. Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is one of the most successful surgical procedures. The objectives of this study were to define whether there is a correlation between socioeconomic status (SES) and surgical complications after elective primary unilateral THA, and investigate whether access to elective THA differs within SES groups. Methods. We conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study involving 202 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, over a 17-year period. Patients were divided into income quintiles based on postal codes as a proxy for personal economic status. Multivariable logistic regression models were then used to primarily assess the relationship between SES and surgical complications within one year of index THA. Results. Of 111,359 patients who underwent elective primary THA, those in the lower SES groups had statistically significantly more comorbidities and statistically significantly more postoperative complications. While there was no increase in readmission rates within 90 days, there was a statistically significant difference in the primary and secondary outcomes including all revisions due (with a subset of deep wound infection and dislocation). Results showed that those in the higher SES groups had proportionally more cases performed than those in lower groups. Compared to the highest SES quintile, the lower groups had 61% of the number of hip arthroplasties performed. Conclusion. Patients in lower socioeconomic groups have more comorbidities, fewer absolute number of cases performed, have their procedures performed in lower-volume centres, and ultimately have higher rates of complications. This lack of access and higher rates of complications is a “double hit” to those in lower SES groups, and indicates that we should be concentrating efforts to improve access to surgeons and hospitals where arthroplasty is routinely performed in high numbers. Even in a universal healthcare system where there are no penalties for complications such as readmission, there seems to be an inequality in the access to THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):589–597


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1333 - 1341
1 Nov 2024
Cheung PWH Leung JHM Lee VWY Cheung JPY

Aims. Developmental cervical spinal stenosis (DcSS) is a well-known predisposing factor for degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM) but there is a lack of consensus on its definition. This study aims to define DcSS based on MRI, and its multilevel characteristics, to assess the prevalence of DcSS in the general population, and to evaluate the presence of DcSS in the prediction of developing DCM. Methods. This cross-sectional study analyzed MRI spine morphological parameters at C3 to C7 (including anteroposterior (AP) diameter of spinal canal, spinal cord, and vertebral body) from DCM patients (n = 95) and individuals recruited from the general population (n = 2,019). Level-specific median AP spinal canal diameter from DCM patients was used to screen for stenotic levels in the population-based cohort. An individual with multilevel (≥ 3 vertebral levels) AP canal diameter smaller than the DCM median values was considered as having DcSS. The most optimal cut-off canal diameter per level for DcSS was determined by receiver operating characteristic analyses, and multivariable logistic regression was performed for the prediction of developing DCM that required surgery. Results. A total of 2,114 individuals aged 64.6 years (SD 11.9) who underwent surgery from March 2009 to December 2016 were studied. The most optimal cut-off canal diameters for DcSS are: C3 < 12.9 mm, C4 < 11.8 mm, C5 < 11.9 mm, C6 < 12.3 mm, and C7 < 13.3 mm. Overall, 13.0% (262 of 2,019) of the population-based cohort had multilevel DcSS. Multilevel DcSS (odds ratio (OR) 6.12 (95% CI 3.97 to 9.42); p < 0.001) and male sex (OR 4.06 (95% CI 2.55 to 6.45); p < 0.001) were predictors of developing DCM. Conclusion. This is the first MRI-based study for defining DcSS with multilevel canal narrowing. Level-specific cut-off canal diameters for DcSS can be used for early identification of individuals at risk of developing DCM. Individuals with DcSS at ≥ three levels and male sex are recommended for close monitoring or early intervention to avoid traumatic spinal cord injuries from stenosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1333–1341


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 6 | Pages 729 - 735
1 Jun 2022
Craxford S Marson BA Nightingale J Forward DP Taylor A Ollivere B

Aims. The last decade has seen a marked increase in surgical rib fracture fixation (SRF). The evidence to support this comes largely from retrospective cohorts, and adjusting for the effect of other injuries sustained at the same time is challenging. This study aims to assess the impact of SRF after blunt chest trauma using national prospective registry data, while controlling for other comorbidities and injuries. Methods. A ten-year extract from the Trauma Audit and Research Network formed the study sample. Patients who underwent SRF were compared with those who received supportive care alone. The analysis was performed first for the entire eligible cohort, and then for patients with a serious (thoracic Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥ 3) or minor (thoracic AIS < 3) chest injury without significant polytrauma. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of mortality. Kaplan-Meier estimators and multivariable Cox regression were performed to adjust for the effects of concomitant injuries and other comorbidities. Outcomes assessed were 30-day mortality, length of stay (LoS), and need for tracheostomy. Results. A total of 86,838 cases were analyzed. The rate of SRF was 1.2%. SRF significantly reduced risk of mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.27 (95 confidence interval (CI) 0.128 to 0.273); p < 0.001) and need for tracheostomy (OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.191 to 0.319); p < 0.001) after adjustment for other covariables across the whole cohort. SRF remained protective in patients with a serious chest injury (hazard ratio (HR) 0.24 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.45); p < 0.001). The benefit in more minor chest injury was less clear. Mean LoS for patients who survived was longer in the SRF group (24.29 days (SD 26.54) vs 16.60 days (SD 26.35); p < 0.001). Conclusion. SRF reduces mortality after significant chest trauma associated with both major and minor polytrauma. The rate of fixation in the UK is low and potentially underused as a treatment for severe chest wall injury. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(6):729–735


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 4 | Pages 495 - 503
1 Apr 2022
Wong LPK Cheung PWH Cheung JPY

Aims

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment.

Methods

Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1182 - 1189
1 Oct 2024
Nisar S Lamb J Johansen A West R Pandit H

Aims

To determine if patient ethnicity among patients with a hip fracture influences the type of fracture, surgical care, and outcome.

Methods

This was an observational cohort study using a linked dataset combining data from the National Hip Fracture Database and Hospital Episode Statistics in England and Wales. Patients’ odds of dying at one year were modelled using logistic regression with adjustment for ethnicity and clinically relevant covariates.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 6 | Pages 702 - 710
1 Jun 2023
Yeramosu T Ahmad W Bashir A Wait J Bassett J Domson G

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) and develop and validate machine learning algorithms in order to predict five-year cancer-related mortality in these patients. Methods. Demographic, clinicopathological, and treatment variables of limb and trunk STS patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017 were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors significantly associated with five-year cancer-related mortality. Various machine learning models were developed and compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. The model that performed best on the SEER testing data was further assessed to determine the variables most important in its predictive capacity. This model was externally validated using our institutional dataset. Results. A total of 13,646 patients with STS from the SEER database were included, of whom 35.9% experienced five-year cancer-related mortality. The random forest model performed the best overall and identified tumour size as the most important variable when predicting mortality in patients with STS, followed by M stage, histological subtype, age, and surgical excision. Each variable was significant in logistic regression. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.752. Conclusion. This study identified clinically important variables associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk STS, and developed a predictive model that demonstrated good accuracy and predictability. Orthopaedic oncologists may use these findings to further risk-stratify their patients and recommend an optimal course of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):702–710


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_17 | Pages 46 - 46
24 Nov 2023
Fowler M Nocon A Chiu Y Tam K Carli A
Full Access

Aim. Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a devastating and costly complication of total joint arthroplasty (TJA). Use of extended oral antibiotic prophylaxis (EOAP) has become increasingly popular in the United States following a highly publicized study (Inabathula et al) from a single center demonstrating a significant protective effect (81% reduction) against PJI in ‘high-risk’ patients. However, these results have not been reproduced elsewhere and EOAP use directly conflicts with current antibiotic stewardship efforts. In order to study the role of EOAP in PJI prevention, consensus is needed for what defines ‘high-risk’ patients. The revision TJA (rTJA) population is an appropriate group to study due to having a higher incidence of PJI. The purpose of the current study was to rigorously determine which preoperative conditions described by Inabathula et al. (referred to as Inabathula criteria (IBC)) confer a higher rate of PJI in patients undergoing aseptic rTJA. Method. 2,256 patients that underwent aseptic rTJA at a single high-volume institution between 2016–2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Patient demographics and comorbidities were recorded to determine if they had 1 or more ‘IBC’, a long list of preoperative conditions including autoimmune diseases, active smoking, body mass index (BMI)>35, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Reoperation for PJI at 90-days and 1-year was recorded. Chi-squared or Fischer's exact tests were calculated to determine the association between preoperative presence/absence of IBC and PJI. Multivariable logistic regressions were conducted to determine if specific comorbidities within the IBC individually conferred an increased PJI risk. Results. 1223 patients (54.2%) had at least one IBC condition. IBC-positive patients were more likely to be female, have an increased ASA score, and higher BMI. IBC-positive patients had a significant increase in PJI risk at both 90-days (relative risk (RR)=2.32, p<0.0001) and 1-year (RR=2.14, p=0.002) versus IBC-negative patients. Within IBC-positive patients, every additional IBC condition conferred a 1.8× odds increase for 90-day PJI (p<0.0001), and 1.76× odds increase in 1-year PJI (p<0.0001). Multivariable logistic regression identified active smoking, BMI>35, CKD, and diabetes mellitus as being independently associated with PJI development (p<0.05). Conclusions. Over half of rTJA patients meet IBC and could be eligible to receive EOAP in the United States. However, the specific presence of active smoking, BMI>35, CKD, and diabetes mellitus appear to be responsible for the increased risk of PJI. Prospective studies investigating EOAP use for patients with these specific conditions are urgently needed to prevent unnecessary antibiotic use


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1249 - 1256
1 Nov 2024
Mangwani J Houchen-Wolloff L Malhotra K Booth S Smith A Teece L Mason LW

Aims. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a potential complication of foot and ankle surgery. There is a lack of agreement on contributing risk factors and chemical prophylaxis requirements. The primary outcome of this study was to analyze the 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and VTE-related mortality in patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery and Achilles tendon (TA) rupture. Secondary aims were to assess the variation in the provision of chemical prophylaxis and risk factors for VTE. Methods. This was a multicentre, prospective national collaborative audit with data collection over nine months for all patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery in an operating theatre or TA rupture treatment, within participating UK hospitals. The association between VTE and thromboprophylaxis was assessed with a univariable logistic regression model. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify key predictors for the risk of VTE. Results. A total of 13,569 patients were included from 68 sites. Overall, 11,363 patients were available for analysis: 44.79% were elective (n = 5,090), 42.16% were trauma excluding TA ruptures (n = 4,791), 3.50% were acute diabetic procedures (n = 398), 2.44% were TA ruptures undergoing surgery (n = 277), and 7.10% were TA ruptures treated nonoperatively (n = 807). In total, 11 chemical anticoagulants were recorded, with the most common agent being low-molecular-weight heparin (n = 6,303; 56.79%). A total of 32.71% received no chemical prophylaxis. There were 99 cases of VTE (incidence 0.87% (95% CI 0.71 to 1.06)). VTE-related mortality was 0.03% (95% CI 0.005 to 0.080). Univariable analysis showed that increased age and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade had higher odds of VTE, as did having previous cancer, stroke, or history of VTE. On multivariable analysis, the strongest predictors for VTE were the type of foot and ankle procedure and ASA grade. Conclusion. The 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and mortality related to VTE is low in foot and ankle surgery and TA management. There was notable variability in the chemical prophylaxis used. The significant risk factors associated with 90-day symptomatic VTE were TA rupture and high ASA grade. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1249–1256


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 2 | Pages 158 - 165
1 Feb 2024
Nasser AAHH Sidhu M Prakash R Mahmood A

Aims. Periprosthetic fractures (PPFs) around the knee are challenging injuries. This study aims to describe the characteristics of knee PPFs and the impact of patient demographics, fracture types, and management modalities on in-hospital mortality. Methods. Using a multicentre study design, independent of registry data, we included adult patients sustaining a PPF around a knee arthroplasty between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. Univariate, then multivariable, logistic regression analyses were performed to study the impact of patient, fracture, and treatment on mortality. Results. Out of a total of 1,667 patients in the PPF study database, 420 patients were included. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.4%. Multivariable analyses suggested that American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, history of peripheral vascular disease (PVD), history of rheumatic disease, fracture around a loose implant, and cerebrovascular accident (CVA) during hospital stay were each independently associated with mortality. Each point increase in ASA grade independently correlated with a four-fold greater mortality risk (odds ratio (OR) 4.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 14.06); p = 0.026). Patients with PVD have a nine-fold increase in mortality risk (OR 9.1 (95% CI 1.25 to 66.47); p = 0.030) and patients with rheumatic disease have a 6.8-fold increase in mortality risk (OR 6.8 (95% CI 1.32 to 34.68); p = 0.022). Patients with a fracture around a loose implant (Unified Classification System (UCS) B2) have a 20-fold increase in mortality, compared to UCS A1 (OR 20.9 (95% CI 1.61 to 271.38); p = 0.020). Mode of management was not a significant predictor of mortality. Patients managed with revision arthroplasty had a significantly longer length of stay (median 16 days; p = 0.029) and higher rates of return to theatre, compared to patients treated nonoperatively or with fixation. Conclusion. The mortality rate in PPFs around the knee is similar to that for native distal femur and neck of femur fragility fractures. Patients with certain modifiable risk factors should be optimized. A national PPF database and standardized management guidelines are currently required to understand these complex injuries and to improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):158–165


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1249 - 1255
1 Nov 2022
Williamson TK Passfall L Ihejirika-Lomedico R Espinosa A Owusu-Sarpong S Lanre-Amos T Schoenfeld AJ Passias PG

Aims. Postoperative complication rates remain relatively high after adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. The extent to which modifiable patient-related factors influence complication rates in patients with ASD has not been effectively evaluated. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the association between modifiable patient-related factors and complications after corrective surgery for ASD. Methods. ASD patients with two-year data were included. Complications were categorized as follows: any complication, major, medical, surgical, major mechanical, major radiological, and reoperation. Modifiable risk factors included smoking, obesity, osteoporosis, alcohol use, depression, psychiatric diagnosis, and hypertension. Patients were stratified by the degree of baseline deformity (low degree of deformity (LowDef)/high degree of deformity (HighDef): below or above 20°) and age (Older/Younger: above or below 65 years). Complication rates were compared for modifiable risk factors in each age/deformity group, using multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust for confounders. Results. A total of 480 ASD patients met the inclusion criteria. By two years, complication rates were 72% ≥ one complication, 28% major, 21% medical, 27% surgical, 11% major radiological, 8% major mechanical, and 22% required reoperation. Younger LowDef patients with osteoporosis were more likely to suffer either a major mechanical (odds ratio (OR) 5.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 36.9); p = 0.048) or radiological complication (OR 7.0 (95% CI 1.9 to 25.9); p = 0.003). Younger HighDef patients were much more likely to develop complications if obese, especially major mechanical complications (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 8.6); p = 0.044). Older HighDef patients developed more complications when diagnosed with depression, including major radiological complications (OR 3.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 10.6); p = 0.033). Overall, a diagnosis of depression proved to be a risk factor for the development of major radiological complications (OR 2.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 4.5); p = 0.005). Conclusion. Certain modifiable patient-related factors, especially osteoporosis, obesity, and mental health status, are associated with an increased risk of complications after surgery for spinal deformity. Surgeons should look for these conditions when assessing a patient for surgery, and optimize them to the fullest extent possible before proceeding to surgical correction so as to minimize the prospect of postoperative morbidity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1249–1255


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 7 | Pages 543 - 548
7 Jul 2022
Singh V Anil U Kurapatti M Robin JX Schwarzkopf R Rozell JC

Aims. Although readmission has historically been of primary interest, emergency department (ED) visits are increasingly a point of focus and can serve as a potentially unnecessary gateway to readmission. This study aims to analyze the difference between primary and revision total joint arthroplasty (TJA) cases in terms of the rate and reasons associated with 90-day ED visits. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed all patients who underwent TJA from 2011 to 2021 at a single, large, tertiary urban institution. Patients were separated into two cohorts based on whether they underwent primary or revision TJA (rTJA). Outcomes of interest included ED visit within 90-days of surgery, as well as reasons for ED visit and readmission rate. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to compare the two groups while accounting for all statistically significant demographic variables. Results. Overall, 28,033 patients were included, of whom 24,930 (89%) underwent primary and 3,103 (11%) underwent rTJA. The overall rate of 90-day ED visits was significantly lower for patients who underwent primary TJA in comparison to those who underwent rTJA (3.9% vs 7.0%; p < 0.001). Among those who presented to the ED, the readmission rate was statistically lower for patients who underwent primary TJA compared to rTJA (23.5% vs 32.1%; p < 0.001). Conclusion. ED visits present a significant burden to the healthcare system. Patients who undergo rTJA are more likely to present to the ED within 90 days following surgery compared to primary TJA patients. However, among patients in both cohorts who visited the ED, three-quarters did not require readmission. Future efforts should aim to develop cost-effective and patient-centred interventions that can aid in reducing preventable ED visits following TJA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):543–548


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 9 | Pages 935 - 941
1 Sep 2024
Ailaney N Guirguis PG Ginnetti JG Balkissoon R Myers TG Ramirez G Thirukumaran CP Ricciardi BF

Aims. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between prior sleeve gastrectomy in patients undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty, and 90-day complications, incidence of revision arthroplasty, and patient-reported outcome scores at final follow-up. Methods. This is a retrospective, single-centre analysis. Patients undergoing primary hip or knee arthroplasty with a prior sleeve gastrectomy were eligible for inclusion (n = 80 patients). A morbidly obese control group was established from the same institutional registry using a 1:2 match, for cases:controls with arthroplasty based on propensity score using age, sex, pre-sleeve gastrectomy BMI, Current Procedural Terminology code to identify anatomical location, and presurgical haemoglobin A1C. Outcomes included 90-day complications, incidence of revision arthroplasty, and patient-reported outcome scores at final follow-up. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations of underlying preoperative demographic and treatment characteristics with outcomes. Results. Complications within 90 days of surgery were increased in the sleeve gastrectomy group relative to the obese control group after controlling for underlying preoperative demographic characteristics (odds ratio (OR) 4.00 (95% CI 1.14 to 13.9); p = 0.030). Postoperative revisions were similar in the sleeve gastrectomy group relative to the obese control group after controlling for underlying preoperative demographic characteristics (OR 17.8 (95% CI 0.64 to 494.3); p = 0.090). Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) depression decreased by a greater amount from pre- to postoperative in the obese controls relative to the sleeve gastrectomy group (OR 4.04 (95% CI 0.06 to 8.02); p = 0.047). PROMIS pain interference and physical function change from pre- to postoperative was not associated with sleeve gastrectomy status. Conclusion. We found a higher rate of complications at 90 days in patients who underwent sleeve gastrectomy prior to primary hip or knee arthroplasty relative to a matched, obese control population. Prosthetic revision rates were similar between the two groups, while improvements in PROMIS depression scores were larger in the obese cohort. This study suggests that sleeve gastrectomy to achieve preoperative weight loss prior to arthroplasty surgery may not mitigate early complication risks in obese patient populations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(9):935–941


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 8 | Pages 963 - 971
1 Aug 2022
Sun Z Liu W Liu H Li J Hu Y Tu B Wang W Fan C

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 4 | Pages 486 - 494
4 Apr 2022
Liu W Sun Z Xiong H Liu J Lu J Cai B Wang W Fan C

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_3 | Pages 86 - 86
23 Feb 2023
Rele S Shadbolt C Elsiwy Y Naufal E Gould D Bazargan A Lorenzo Y Choong P Dowsey M Stevens J
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Use of anticoagulants for thromboembolic prophylaxis is strongly supported by evidence. However, the use of these medications beyond the prophylactic period is poorly understood. We identified anticoagulant naïve patients that underwent hip or knee replacement between 2012 and 2019 from an arthroplasty registry and probabilistically linked 3,018 surgeries with nationwide pharmaceutical claims data. Rates of anticoagulation use were examined during the early (<= 60 days post-discharge), mid-term (61–180 days post-discharge) and long-term (181–360 days post-discharge) periods. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify patient- and surgery-related factors associated with long-term anticoagulant use. Anticoagulants were supplied to 20% of arthroplasties within 60 days of discharge, 7% between 61–180 days, and 10% between 181–360 days. Older age, obesity, increased comorbidity burden, a longer length of stay, occurrence of a complication necessitating anticoagulation and dispensation of an anticoagulant within 60 days of discharge were all risk factors for long-term anticoagulant use. Given the risks associated with unnecessary use of these medications, certain patients who are prescribed anticoagulants beyond prophylactic period may benefit from specialist medication review in the months following surgery


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 6 | Pages 696 - 702
1 Jun 2022
Kvarda P Puelacher C Clauss M Kuehl R Gerhard H Mueller C Morgenstern M

Aims. Periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) and fracture-related infections (FRIs) are associated with a significant risk of adverse events. However, there is a paucity of data on cardiac complications following revision surgery for PJI and FRI and how they impact overall mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the risk of perioperative myocardial injury (PMI) and mortality in this patient cohort. Methods. We prospectively included consecutive patients at high cardiovascular risk (defined as age ≥ 45 years with pre-existing coronary, peripheral, or cerebrovascular artery disease, or any patient aged ≥ 65 years, plus a postoperative hospital stay of > 24 hours) undergoing septic or aseptic major orthopaedic surgery between July 2014 and October 2016. All patients received a systematic screening to reliably detect PMI, using serial measurements of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T. All-cause mortality was assessed at one year. Multivariable logistic regression models were applied to compare incidence of PMI and mortality between patients undergoing septic revision surgery for PJI or FRI, and patients receiving aseptic major bone and joint surgery. Results. In total, 911 consecutive patients were included. The overall perioperative myocardial injury (PMI) rate was 15.4% (n = 140). Septic revision surgery for PJI was associated with a significantly higher PMI rate (43.8% (14/32) vs 14.5% (57/393); p = 0.001) and one-year mortality rate (18.6% (6/32) vs 7.4% (29/393); p = 0.038) compared to aseptic revision or primary arthroplasty. The association with PMI persisted in multivariable analysis with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 4.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1 to 10.7; p < 0.001), but was not statistically significant for one-year mortality (aOR 1.9 (95% CI 0.7 to 5.4; p = 0.240). PMI rate (15.2% (5/33) vs 14.1% (64/453)) and one-year mortality (15.2% (5/33) vs 9.1% (41/453)) after FRI revision surgery were comparable to aseptic long-bone fracture surgery. Conclusion. Patients undergoing revision surgery for PJI were at a risk of PMI and death compared to those undergoing aseptic arthroplasty surgery. Screening for PMI and treatment in specialized multidisciplinary units should be considered in major bone and joint infections. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(6):696–702


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_3 | Pages 109 - 109
23 Feb 2023
Naufal E Shadbolt C Elsiwy Y Thuraisingam S Lorenzo Y Darby J Babazadeh S Choong P Dowsey M Stevens J
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This study aimed to evaluate the month-to-month prevalence of antibiotic dispensation in the 12 months before and after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) and to identify factors associated with antibiotic dispensation in the month immediately following the surgical procedure. In total, 4,115 THAs and TKAs performed between April 2013 and June 2019 from a state-wide arthroplasty referral centre were analysed. A cross-sectional study used data from an institutional arthroplasty registry, which was linked probabilistically to administrative dispensing data from the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Multivariable logistic regression was carried out to identify patient and surgical risk factors for oral antibiotic dispensation. Oral antibiotics were dispensed in 18.3% of patients following primary TKA and 12.0% of patients following THA in the 30 days following discharge. During the year after discharge, 66.7% of TKA patients and 58.2% of THA patients were dispensed an antibiotic at some point. Patients with poor preoperative health status were more likely to have antibiotics dispensed in the month following THA or TKA. Older age, undergoing TKA rather than THA, obesity, inflammatory arthritis, and experiencing an in-hospital wound-related or other infectious complications were associated with increased antibiotic dispensation in the 30 days following discharge. A high rate of antibiotic dispensation in the 30 days following THA and TKA has been observed. Although resource constraints may limit routine wound review for all patients by a surgeon, a select cohort may benefit from timely specialist review postoperatively. Several risk factors identified in this study may aid in identifying appropriate candidates for such changes to follow-up care


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_14 | Pages 10 - 10
10 Oct 2023
Hall A Clement N Maclullich A White T Duckworth A
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COVID-19 confers a three-fold increased mortality risk among hip fracture patients. The aims were to investigate whether vaccination was associated with: i) lower mortality risk, and ii) lower likelihood of contracting COVID-19 within 30 days of fracture. This nationwide cohort study included all patients aged >50 years with a hip fracture between 01/03/20-31/12/21. Data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit were collected and included: demographics, injury and management variables, discharge destination, and 30-day mortality status. These variables were linked to population-level records of COVID-19 vaccination and testing. There were 13,345 patients with a median age of 82.0 years (IQR 74.0–88.0), and 9329/13345 (69.9%) were female. Of 3022/13345 (22.6%) patients diagnosed with COVID-19, 606/13345 (4.5%) were COVID-positive within 30 days of fracture. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that vaccinated patients were less likely to be COVID-positive (odds ratio (OR) 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.34–0.48, p<0.001) than unvaccinated patients. 30-day mortality rate was higher for COVID-positive than COVID-negative patients (15.8% vs 7.9%, p < 0.001). Controlling for confounders (age, sex, comorbidity, deprivation, pre-fracture residence), unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 had a greater mortality risk than COVID-negative patients (OR 2.77, CI 2.12–3.62, p < 0.001), but vaccinated COVID19-positive patients were not at increased risk (OR 0.93, CI 0.53–1.60, p = 0.783). Vaccination was associated with lower COVID-19 infection risk. Vaccinated COVID-positive patients had a similar mortality risk to COVID-negative patients, suggesting a reduced severity of infection. This study demonstrates the efficacy of vaccination in this vulnerable patient group, and presents essential data for future outbreaks


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_11 | Pages 13 - 13
7 Jun 2023
Diffley T Ferry J Sumarlie R Beshr M Chen B Clement N Farrow L
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Appropriate surgical management of hip fractures has major clinical and economic consequences. Recently IMN use has increased compared to SHS constructs, despite no clear evidence demonstrating superiority of outcome. We therefore set out to provide further evidence about the clinical and economic implications of implant choice when considering hip fracture fixation strategies. A retrospective cohort study using Scottish hip fracture audit (SHFA) data was performed for the period 2016–2022. Patients ≥50 with a hip fracture and treated with IMN or SHS constructs at Scottish Hospitals were included. Comparative analyses, including adjustment for confounders, were performed utilising Multivariable logistic regression for dichotomous outcomes and Mann-Whitney-U tests for non-parametric data. A sub-group analysis was also performed focusing on AO-A1/A2 configurations which utilised additional regional data. Cost differences in Length of Stay (LOS) were calculated using defined costs from the NHS Scotland Costs book. In all analyses p<0.05 denoted significance. 13638 records were included (72% female). 9867 received a SHS (72%). No significant differences were identified in 30 or 60-day survival (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.05, 95%CI 0.90–1.23; p=0.532), (OR 1.10, 95%CI 0.97–1.24; p=0.138) between SHS and IMN's. There was however a significantly lower early mobilisation rate with IMN vs SHS (OR 0.64, 95%CI 0.59–0.70; p<0.001), and lower likelihood of discharge to domicile by day-30 post-admission (OR 0.77, 95%CI 0.71–0.84; p<0.001). Acute and overall, LOS were significantly lower for SHS vs IMN (11 vs 12 days and 20 vs 24 days respectively; p<0.001). Findings were similar across a sub-group analysis of 559 AO A1/A2 fracture configurations. Differences in LOS potentially increases costs by £1230 per-patient, irrespective of the higher costs of IMN's v SHS. Appropriate SHS use is associated with early mobilisation, reduced LOS and likely with reduced cost of treatment. Further research exploring potential reasons for the identified differences in early mobilisation are warranted