Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Aims

The aims of this study were first, to determine if adding fusion to a decompression of the lumbar spine for spinal stenosis decreases the rate of radiological restenosis and/or proximal adjacent level stenosis two years after surgery, and second, to evaluate the change in vertebral slip two years after surgery with and without fusion.

Aims

We compared decompression alone to decompression with fusion surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis, with or without degenerative spondylolisthesis (DS). The aim was to evaluate if five-year outcomes differed between the groups. The two-year results from the same trial revealed no differences.

Thermal sensors have been used in bracing research as self-reported diaries are inaccurate. Little is known about new low-profile sensors, optimal location within a brace, locational thermal micro-climate and effect of brace lining. Our objective is to Determine an optimal temperature threshold for sensor-measured and true wear time agreement. Identify optimal sensor location. Assess all factors to determine the best sensor option for the Bracing AdoleScent Idiopathic Scoliosis (BASIS) multicentre RCT.

Seven Orthotimer and five iButton (DS1925L) sensors were synchronised to record temperature at five-minute intervals. Three healthy participants donned a rigid spinal brace, embedded with both sensors across four anatomical locations (abdomen/axilla/lateral-gluteal/sacral). Universal-coordinated-time wear protocols were performed in/out-doors. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) assessed sensor-measured and true wear time agreement at thresholds 15–36oC.

Optimal thresholds, determined by largest ICC estimate: Orthotimer: Abdomen=26oC, axilla=27oC, lateral-gluteal=24.5oC, sacral=22.5oC. iButton: Abdomen=26oC, axilla=27oC, lateral-gluteal=23.5oC, sacral=23.5oC. Warm-up time and error at optimal thresholds increased for moulded sensors covered with 6mm lining.

Location: anterior abdominal wall. Excellent reliability and higher optimal thresholds, less likely to be exceeded by ambient temperature; not a pressure area. Sensor: iButton, longer battery life and larger memory than Orthotimer; allows recording at 10 min intervals for life of brace. Orthotimer only able to record every 30 mins, increasing error between true and measured wear time; Orthotimer needs 6-monthly data download. Threshold: 26oC is optimal threshold to balance warm-up and cool-down times for accurately measuring wear time. Sensor should not be covered by lining foam as this significantly prolongs warm-up time.

Aims

The aim of this study was to compare the effect of a percutaneous radiofrequency heat lesion at the medial branch of the primary dorsal ramus with a sham procedure, for the treatment of lumbar facet joint pain.

Aims. People with severe, persistent low back pain (LBP) may be offered lumbar spine fusion surgery if they have had insufficient benefit from recommended non-surgical treatments. However, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2016 guidelines recommended not offering spinal fusion surgery for adults with LBP, except as part of a randomized clinical trial. This survey aims to describe UK clinicians’ views about the suitability of patients for such a future trial, along with their views regarding equipoise for randomizing patients in a future clinical trial comparing lumbar spine fusion surgery to best conservative care (BCC; the FORENSIC-UK trial). Methods. An online cross-sectional survey was piloted by the multidisciplinary research team, then shared with clinical professional groups in the UK who are involved in the management of adults with severe, persistent LBP. The survey had seven sections that covered the demographic details of the clinician, five hypothetical case vignettes of patients with varying presentations, a series of questions regarding the preferred management, and whether or not each clinician would be willing to recruit the example patients into future clinical trials. Results. There were 72 respondents, with a response rate of 9.0%. They comprised 39 orthopaedic spine surgeons, 17 neurosurgeons, one pain specialist, and 15 allied health professionals. Most respondents (n = 61,84.7%) chose conservative care as their first-choice management option for all five case vignettes. Over 50% of respondents reported willingness to randomize three of the five cases to either surgery or BCC, indicating a willingness to participate in the future randomized trial. From the respondents, transforaminal interbody fusion was the preferred approach for spinal fusion (n = 19, 36.4%), and the preferred method of BCC was a combined programme of physical and psychological therapy (n = 35, 48.5%). Conclusion. This survey demonstrates that there is uncertainty about the role of lumbar spine fusion surgery and BCC for a range of example patients with severe, persistent LBP in the UK. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(7):612–620

Background. Specifically designed control interventions can account for expectation effects in clinical trials. For the interpretation of efficacy trials of physical, psychological, and self-management interventions for people living with pain, the design, conduct, and reporting of control interventions is crucial. Objectives. To establish a quality standard in the field, core recommendations are presented alongside additional considerations and a reporting checklist for control interventions. Methods. Three Delphi rounds with 64 experts in placebo research and/or non-pharmacological clinical trials were conducted. The panel was presented with a systematic review and meta-analysis of control and blinding methods. A draft guidance document included 63 consensus items (≥80% agreement) and was discussed with patient partners. Finally, the draft guidance and results from stakeholder interviews were discussed at consensus meetings with Delphi participants and patient representatives. Results. Forty-four experts completed the process. When treatment efficacy or mechanisms are to be studied, the advocated principle is to design control interventions as similar as possible to the tested intervention, apart from the components that the study examines. Structured reasoning in the planning phase, early engagement with stakeholders, feasibility work, and piloting will enhance the quality and acceptability of control interventions. With participant blinding being a primary objective, blinding effectiveness should be routinely assessed and reported. Transparent and detailed reporting will improve interpretability and repeatability of clinical trials. Conclusion. This guideline provides the much-needed standards to enhance the quality of efficacy clinical trials in physical, psychological, and self-management intervention research, ultimately improving patient care. Study registration: . https://osf.io/jmyhq/. Conflict of interest: The authors declare no competing interests. Sources of Funding: Alain and Sheila Diamond Charitable Trust PhD Studentship

Aims. Closed suction subfascial drainage is widely used after instrumented posterior spinal fusion in patients with a spinal deformity. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of this wound drainage on the outcomes in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). This was a further analysis of a randomized, multicentre clinical trial reporting on patients after posterior spinal fusion using segmental pedicle screw instrumentation. In this study the incidence of deep surgical site infection (SSI) and chronic postoperative pain at two years’ follow-up are reported. Methods. We conducted a randomized, multicentre clinical trial on adolescents undergoing posterior spinal fusion for AIS using segmental pedicle screw instrumentation. A total of 90 consecutive patients were randomized into a ‘drain’ or ‘no drain’ group at the time of wound closure, using the sealed envelope technique (1:1). The primary outcomes in the initial study were the change in the level of haemoglobin in the blood postoperatively and total blood loss. A secondary outcome was the opioid consumption immediately after surgery. The aim of this further study was to report the rate of deep SSI and persistent postoperative pain, at two years' follow-up. Results. As previously reported, the mean 48-hour opioid consumption was significantly higher in the no drain group (2.0 mg/kg (SD 0.8) vs 1.4 mg/kg (SD 0.7); p = 0.005). There were no delayed deep SSIs. At two years’ follow-up, the mean Scoliosis Research Society 24-item questionnaire (SRS-24) total score did not differ between the groups (4.11 (SD 0.47) vs 4.16 (SD 0.33); p = 0.910). The mean SRS-24 pain score was 4.28 (SD 0.48) in the no drain group compared with 4.33 (SD 0.66) in the drain group (p = 0.245). Seven patients (19%) in the no drain group and six in the drain group (14%) reported moderate to severe pain (numerical rating scale ≥ 4) at two years’ follow-up (p = 0.484). The general self-image domain score was significantly higher in the no drain group compared with the drain group (4.02 (SD 0.74) vs 4.59 (SD 0.54); p < 0.001). Conclusion. The main finding in this study was that more severe pain immediately after surgery did not result in a higher incidence of chronic pain in the no drain group compared with the drain group. Back pain and health-related quality of life at two years’ follow-up did not differ between the groups. The patient-reported self-image domain was significantly better in the no drain group compared with the drain group. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1176–1181

Background. The association between lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration (LDD) and low back pain (LBP) is modest. We have recently shown that genetic propensity to pain is an effect modifier of the LDD-LBP relationship when LDD is defined as a summary score of LDD (LSUM), suggesting the association may be driven by individuals with the greatest genetic predisposition to pain. This study examined the association between individual spine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-determined LDD features and LBP in subgroups defined by genetic predisposition to pain. Method. We developed a polygenic risk score (PRS) for “genetic propensity to pain” defined as the number of non-back pain locations (head, face, neck/shoulder, stomach/abdomen, hip, and knee) with duration ≥3 months in 377,538 UK Biobank participants of European ancestry. This PRS was used to stratify TwinsUK MRI samples (n=645) into four strata of genetic propensity to pain. We examined the association between LBP and MRI features of lumbar disc height, disc signal intensity, disc bulge, and osteophytes with adjustments for age, sex, PRS strata, interaction terms for each MRI feature x PRS strata, and twin status. Results. We found significant effect modification of the LDD-LBP relationship by genetic propensity to pain for the lumbar MRI features of disc height (p=0.03 for the interaction term with highest quartile of genetically-predicted propensity to pain) and disc signal intensity (p=0.001), but not for disc bulge and osteophytes. Conclusion. Genetic propensity to pain modifies the association between individual LDD features and LBP and should be considered in LBP clinical studies. Conflicts of interest. No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding. No funding obtained. Acknowledgement. UKBB data were obtained under the project #18219. This paper is submitted to the Spine journal and is under review

Background. Chronic back pain (CBP) is a major cause of disability globally and its causes are multifactorial. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) are human herpes viruses usually acquired in early life. About 50% and over 90% of the population worldwide have been infected with CMV and EBV, respectively. This study investigated a potential causal relationship between CMV infection and CBP. Method. UK Biobank participants provided information on CMV seropositivity and CBP status, which were available for both traits in 5,140 participants. We used EBV seropositivity as a negative control to identify confounding and inaccurate causal inference. A one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) based on independent genetic variants predicting CMV and EBV positivity was conducted in Northern European participants. To validate the association further, the MR study was repeated using a CMV polygenic risk score (PRS). Results. CMV GWAS revealed 86 independent SNPs having p-value < 2 × 10. −4. for the one-sample MR. These SNPs were used to define genetically-predicted categories of CMV infection risk. CMV infection risk categories were significantly associated with CBP (OR = 1.150; 95% CI: 1.005–1.317, p-value = 0.043), findings which were confirmed using the CMV PRS (OR = 1.299; 95% CI: 1.141–1.479, p-value = 0.001). There was no causal association between EBV and CBP (p-value = 0.17). Conclusion. Our results provide further evidence for a causal relationship between CMV infection and CBP. These results suggest a stratified approach to CBP may be useful, particularly in clinical trials and they shed light on underlying mechanisms in CBP. Conflicts of interest. No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding. No funding obtained. Acknowledgement. UKBB data were obtained under the project #18219. Some aspects of this work have been previously presented at The Challenge of Chronic Pain: From Genomics to Therapy in UK and first 1st Danish International Conference on Personalised Medicine in Denmark

Purposes of the study and background. Cognitive Functional Therapy (CFT) is a complex intervention that targets the biopsychosocial nature of low back pain (LBP). The barriers and facilitators to CFT have not previously been researched in the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS). This study aimed to explore the barriers and facilitators of CFT in the NHS ahead of a future clinical trial. Methods and results. Participants who had completed a CFT intervention for persistent LBP and physiotherapists who had previously attended a CFT training workshop were recruited. Data were collected using one to one semi-structured interviews and were analysed thematically using framework method. Eight people with LBP and ten physiotherapists consented to participate. The key findings were that UK NHS physiotherapists can be trained to deliver CFT, they valued the training and felt confident to deliver CFT successfully to patients in NHS physiotherapy departments. Peer support and mentorship from a CFT practitioner was necessary for the physiotherapists to sustain changes to their clinical practice. Participants with LBP welcomed CFT as they felt it was beneficial and enabled them to self-manage their LBP and they could recognise the difference between CFT and usual care. The barriers, mainly related to the healthcare system, included short appointment times and poor availability of follow-up appointments. Conclusion. This is the first study to establish the barriers and facilitators to the implementation of CFT in the NHS. The findings of this study were used to inform the planning, design and delivery of a feasibility randomised controlled trial. Conflicts of interest: No conflicts of interest. Sources of funding: No funding obtained

A Core Outcome Set (COS) for treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is essential to ensure that the most meaningful outcomes are evaluated and used consistently. Measuring the same outcomes ensures evidence from clinical trials and routine clinical practice of different treatments can be more easily compared and combined, therefore increasing the quality of the evidence base. The SPINE-COS-AYA project aims to develop a gold standard COS which can be used internationally in research and routine clinical practice to evaluate the treatment (surgical and bracing) of AIS. In this qualitative study, the views of adolescents and young adults with AIS (10-25 years of age), their family members and healthcare professionals in a UK region were sought, via interviews, on treatment outcomes. Participants were purposively recruited from a variety of sources including NHS outpatient clinics and social media. Semi-structured interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. Key findings will be presented, to include potential core outcome domains identified by the different subgroups. The core outcome domains identified in this research programme will subsequently form part of an international consensus survey to agree a COS. In future, if the COS is used by healthcare staff and researchers, it will be easier for everyone, including patients and their families, to assess which treatment works best

Background. FORECAST is a prospective longitudinal cohort study exploring mechanism-based prognostic factors for pain persistence in sciatica. Here, we share an update on this largest deeply-phenotyped primary care sciatica cohort. Methods/results. Our cohort includes 180 people with sciatica (score >4 on Stynes’ Sum Score), aged 18–85, within 3 months of symptom onset. Psychosocial factors, self-reported sensory profiling, clinical examination, quantitative sensory testing (QST), biological samples (blood and skin samples), and Magnetic Resonance Neurography of lumbar nerve roots were collected at baseline. Pain persistence was determined at three and twelve months with the Sciatica Bothersomeness Index (SBI) and a numeric pain rating scale (NRS) as primary outcomes. Recruitment nears completion, with 160 participants enrolled to date. 127 and 96 participants have completed 3 and 12 months follow-up respectively. Overall, 56% of our cohort are female, with a mean age (SD) of 54.14yrs (16.57). Ethnicity data approximates local populations. SBI at baseline was (median [IQR]) 13[10-17], and interim longitudinal data shows stepwise improvement at 3 and 12 months. Baseline ‘average’ pain intensity was 5.56 (2.15) for leg pain, and 4.14(2.82) for low back pain (LBP). Overall, pain scores decreased at 3 and 12 months, with greater reductions in leg pain than LBP at 12 months. However, around 55–80% and 40–65% of people reported persistent pain at 3 and 12 months respectively. Conclusion. Leg pain severity was moderate and higher than LBP at baseline. All primary outcome measures demonstrate improvement over time, however 40–65% of patients report persistent pain at 12 months. Conflicts of interest. LR: Paid facilitation of post-graduate courses internationally. SK, MT, FP, KM, WS, CP, CR, SC: No conflicts of interest. GC: Editor in Chief of Health Psychology Review. Director of board of directors, MentalCHealth Care setting NoordWestVlaanderen. JF: Copyright holder of ODI (Oswestry Disability Index). Served on a data monitoring committee for a clinical trial of 2 different surgical approaches to cervical disc herniation (FORVAD). Member of HTA Prioritisation Committee B: Inside hospital Care from 2015-February 2019. Member of HTA Interventional Procedures Panel from 2010–2015. Trustee and board member of 3 spine related charities – Back to Back; British Scoliosis Research Foundation and BackCare. Expert instructed by both claimant and defendant solicitors in negligence and person injury cases. GB: Paid consultancy (RNA-seq) with Ivy Farm and Coding.bio. ABS: Paid post-graduate lecturing internationally. Co-chair NeupSig sciatica working group (unpaid). Sources of funding. This project is funded by UKRI and Versus Arthritis as part of the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (SPF) Advanced Pain Discovery Platform (APDP), a co-funded initiative by UKRI (MRC, BBSRC, ESRC), Versus Arthritis, the Medical Research Foundation and Eli Lilly and Company Ltd (Grant MR/W027003/1). Additional funding has been received from the back to back charity to expand longitudinal components of the study. LR has received support with PhD fees from the CSP charitable trust. ABS is supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Career Development Fellowship. (222101/Z/20/Z). WS is partly funded through the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. FP is funded by a Dorothy Hodgkin Career Development Fellowship in Chemistry in association with Somerville College. GB is supported by the Wellcome Trust (223149/Z/21/Z) and Diabetes UK (19/0005984). GC and KRM are partly funded by UKRI and Versus Arthritis as part of the Advanced Pain Discovery Platform (APDP) PAINSTORM (MR/W002388/1). The UKRI and Versus Arhthritis (APDP) are the major funders of FORECAST. All other funders provided either some people support, or funded projects with legacy data that we reuse

Background & purpose. Measurement inconsistency across clinical trials is tackled by the development of a core outcome measurement set. Four core outcome domains were recommended for clinical trials in patients with non-specific LBP (nsLBP): physical functioning, pain intensity, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and number of deaths. This study aimed to reach consensus on core instruments to measure the first three domains. Methods & Results. The Steering Committee overseeing this project selected 17 potential core instruments for physical functioning, three for pain intensity, and five for HRQoL. Evidence on their measurement properties in nsLBP was synthesized in three systematic reviews using COSMIN methodology. Researchers, clinicians, and patients (n = 208) were invited in a Delphi survey to seek consensus on which instruments to endorse as core. Consensus was a-priori set at 67% of participants agreeing on endorsing an instrument. Two Delphi rounds were run (response rates = 44% and 41%). Agreement was reached on endorsing the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI 2.1a) for physical functioning, the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) for pain intensity, but not on other instruments. Several participants demanded to have free of charge core instruments. Taking these results into account, the steering committee formulated the following recommendations: ODI 2.1a or 24-item Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire for physical functioning, NRS for pain intensity, Short-Form 12 or 10-item PROMIS Global Health for HRQoL. Conclusion. A core outcome measurement set is available for clinical trials in patients with nsLBP. High quality clinimetric studies directly comparing recommended and not recommended instruments are required. Conflict of interest: None. Source of funding: EUROSPINE, The Spine Society of Europe

Aims

To systematically evaluate whether bracing can effectively achieve curve regression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), and to identify any predictors of curve regression after bracing.

Aims

Scoliosis is a lateral curvature of the spine with associated rotation, often causing distress due to appearance. For some curves, there is good evidence to support the use of a spinal brace, worn for 20 to 24 hours a day to minimize the curve, making it as straight as possible during growth, preventing progression. Compliance can be poor due to appearance and comfort. A night-time brace, worn for eight to 12 hours, can achieve higher levels of curve correction while patients are supine, and could be preferable for patients, but evidence of efficacy is limited. This is the protocol for a randomized controlled trial of ‘full-time bracing’ versus ‘night-time bracing’ in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS).

Aims

The optimal procedure for the treatment of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) remains controversial. The aim of this study was to compare the outcome of anterior cervical ossified posterior longitudinal ligament en bloc resection (ACOE) with posterior laminectomy and fusion with bone graft and internal fixation (PTLF) for the surgical management of patients with this condition.

Background. Recruitment to time and target in clinical trials is a key challenge requiring careful estimation of numbers of potential participants. The SCOPiC trial ((HTA 12/201/09) (ISRCTN75449581)) is investigating the clinical and cost-effectiveness of stratified care for patients with sciatica in primary care. Here, we describe the approaches followed to achieve recruitment of our required sample size (n=470), the challenges encountered and required adaptations. Methods. We used recruitment data from the SCOPiC trial and its internal pilot, to show the differences between estimated and actual numbers of patients from consultation to participation in the trial. Patients were consented to the trial if they had a clinical diagnosis of sciatica (with at least 70% confidence) and met the trial eligibility criteria. Results. Initial recruitment estimates suggested we needed a source population of 146,000 adults registered at approximately 30 GP practices, and a monthly trial recruitment target of 22 patients per month over 22 months. The internal pilot trial phase resulted in revisions of these estimates to 256,000 and 42 GP practices. To date, 1,623 patients have been screened for eligibility and 450 randomised. The main reason for ineligibility is low confidence in the diagnosis of sciatica. Conclusion. Our experience highlights the challenge of recruitment to clinical trials of sciatica, particularly in terms of case definition, and the need for careful planning and an internal pilot phase prior to a main trial. We believe our experience will be helpful to others conducting trials with sciatica patients. No conflicts of interest. Funding. NEF is an NIHR Senior Investigator. KK is supported through a HEFCE Senior Clinical Lecturer award. The SCOPiC trial is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (NIHR HTA project number 12/201/09). The views and opinions expressed therein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NIHR, NHS or the Department of Health

Purpose of study and background. Low back pain affects 80% of the population at some point in their lives with 40% of cases attributed to intervertebral disc (IVD) degeneration. A number of potential regenerative approaches are under investigation worldwide, however their translation to clinic is currently hampered by an appropriate model for testing prior to clinical trials. Therefore, a more representative large animal model for IVD degeneration is needed to mimic human degeneration. Here we investigate a caprine IVD degeneration model in a loaded disc culture system which can mimic the native loading environment of the disc. Methods and Results. Goat discs were excised and cultured in a bioreactor under diurnal, simulated-physiological loading (SPL) conditions, following 3 days pre load, IVDs were degenerated enzymatically for 2hrs and subsequently loaded for 10 days under physiological loading. A PBS injected group was used as controls. Disc deformation was continuously monitored and changes in disc height recovery quantified using stretched-exponential fitting. Histological staining was performed on caprine discs to assess extracellular matrix production and immunohistochemistry performed to determine expression of catabolic protein expression. The injection of collagenase and cABC induced mechanical behavior akin to that seen in human degeneration. A decrease in collagens and glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) was seen in enzyme injected discs, which was accompanied by increased cellular expression for degradative enzymes and catabolic cytokines. Conclusion. This model provides a reproducible model of IVD degeneration which mimics human degeneration. This model allows the testing of biomaterials and other potential treatments of IVD degeneration on a scale more representative of the human disc. There are no conflicts of interest. Funded by MRC and Versus Arthritis

Background and Purpose. The STarT Back approach comprises subgrouping of LBP patients according to risk of persistent LBP-related disability, and matches patients to appropriate treatments. In a clinical trial and implementation study, this stratified care approach was clinically and cost-effective compared to usual non-stratified care. However, the long-term cost- effectiveness is unknown, and could be established with decision modelling. A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations in LBP found shortcomings with existing models, including inadequate characterisation of the condition in health states and absence of long-term modelling. This study conceptualises the first decision model of this stratified care approach for LBP management, and assesses long-term cost-effectiveness. Methods. A cost-utility analysis from the NHS perspective compared stratified care with usual care, in patients consulting in primary care with non-specific LBP. A Markov state-transition model was constructed where long-term patient prognosis over ten years was dependent upon physical function achieved at twelve months. Consultation with experts helped define condition health states, inform the long-term modelling, and choice of sensitivity analyses. Results. Preliminary base-case results indicate this model of stratified care is cost-effective over a ten-year time horizon, delivering 0.10 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost-saving of £100.27 per patient. Sensitivity analyses indicate the approach is likely to be cost-effective in all scenarios, and cost-saving in most, although sensitive to assumptions regarding long-term patient prognosis. Analysis from the societal perspective improved the associated cost-savings. Conclusion. It is likely that implementation of this stratified care model will help reduce unnecessary healthcare usage, whilst improving patient quality of life. No conflicts of interest. Funding: Research stipend for JAH by the Institute for Primary Care & Health Sciences, Keele University