Aims. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting survival of patients undergoing surgery owing to metastatic bone disease (MBD) in the appendicular skeleton. Methods. We included a historical cohort of 130 consecutive patients (mean age 64 years, 30 to 85; 76 females/54 males) who underwent joint arthroplasty surgery (140 procedures) owing to MBD in the appendicular skeleton during the period between January 2003 and December 2008. Primary cancer, pre-operative haemoglobin, fracture versus impending fracture, Karnofsky score, visceral metastases, multiple bony metastases and American Society of Anaesthesiologist’s score were included into a series of logistic regression models. The outcome was the survival status at three, six and 12 months respectively. Results were internally validated based on 1000 cross-validations and reported as time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) for predictions of outcome. . Results. The predictive scores obtained showed AUC values of 79.1% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 65.6 to 89.6), 80.9% (95% CI 70.3 to 90.84) and 85.1% (95% CI 73.5 to 93.9) at three, six and 12 months. . Discussion. In conclusion, we have presented and internally validated a model for predicting survival after surgery owing to MBD in the appendicular skeleton. The model is the first, to our knowledge, built solely on material from patients who only had surgery in the appendicular skeleton. Take home message: Applying this prognostic model will help determine whether the patients’ anticipated survival makes it reasonable to subject them to extensive reconstructive surgery for which there may be an extended period of rehabilitation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:271–7

Aims

Advances in treatment have extended the life expectancy of patients with metastatic bone disease (MBD). Patients could experience more skeletal-related events (SREs) as a result of this progress. Those who have already experienced a SRE could encounter another local management for a subsequent SRE, which is not part of the treatment for the initial SRE. However, there is a noted gap in research on the rate and characteristics of subsequent SREs requiring further localized treatment, obligating clinicians to extrapolate from experiences with initial SREs when confronting subsequent ones. This study aimed to investigate the proportion of MBD patients developing subsequent SREs requiring local treatment, examine if there are prognostic differences at the initial treatment between those with single versus subsequent SREs, and determine if clinical, oncological, and prognostic features differ between initial and subsequent SRE treatments.