Aims. The aims of this study were to identify and evaluate the current literature examining the prognostic factors which are associated with failure of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA). Methods. Electronic literature searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane. All studies reporting prognostic estimates for factors associated with the revision of a primary TEA were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool, and the quality of evidence was assessed using the modified Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) framework. Due to low quality of the evidence and the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a narrative synthesis was used. Results. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria, investigating 28 possible prognostic factors. Most QUIPS domains (84%) were rated as moderate to high risk of bias. The quality of the evidence was low or very low for all prognostic factors. In low-quality evidence, prognostic factors with consistent associations with failure of TEA in more than one study were: the sequelae of trauma leading to TEA, either independently or combined with acute trauma, and male sex. Several other studies investigating sex reported no association. The evidence for other factors was of very low quality and mostly involved exploratory studies. Conclusion. The current evidence investigating the prognostic factors associated with failure of TEA is of low or very low quality, and studies generally have a moderate to high risk of bias. Prognostic factors are subject to uncertainty, should be interpreted with caution, and are of little clinical value. Higher-quality evidence is required to determine robust prognostic factors for failure of TEA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(5):201–213

McFarland fractures of the medial malleolus in children, also classified as Salter–Harris Type III and IV fractures, are associated with a high incidence of premature growth plate arrest. In order to identify prognostic factors for the development of complications we reviewed 20 children with a McFarland fracture that was treated surgically, at a mean follow-up of 8.9 years (3.5 to 17.4). Seven children (35%) developed premature growth arrest with angular deformity. The mean American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society Ankle-Hindfoot Scale for all patients was 98.3 (87 to 100) and the mean modified Weber protocol was 1.15 (0 to 5). There was a significant correlation between initial displacement (p = 0.004) and operative delay (p = 0.007) with premature growth arrest. Both risk factors act independently and additively, such that all children with both risk factors developed premature arrest whereas children with no risk factor did not. We recommend that fractures of the medial malleolus in children should be treated by anatomical reduction and screw fixation within one day of injury. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:419–23

Aims. To map literature on prognostic factors related to outcomes of revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA), to identify extensively studied factors and to guide future research into what domains need further exploration. Methods. We performed a systematic literature search in MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. The search string included multiple synonyms of the following keywords: "revision TKA", "outcome" and "prognostic factor". We searched for studies assessing the association between at least one prognostic factor and at least one outcome measure after rTKA surgery. Data on sample size, study design, prognostic factors, outcomes, and the direction of the association was extracted and included in an evidence map. Results. After screening of 5,660 articles, we included 166 studies reporting prognostic factors for outcomes after rTKA, with a median sample size of 319 patients (30 to 303,867). Overall, 50% of the studies reported prospectively collected data, and 61% of the studies were performed in a single centre. In some studies, multiple associations were reported; 180 different prognostic factors were reported in these studies. The three most frequently studied prognostic factors were reason for revision (213 times), sex (125 times), and BMI (117 times). Studies focusing on functional scores and patient-reported outcome measures as prognostic factor for the outcome after surgery were limited (n = 42). The studies reported 154 different outcomes. The most commonly reported outcomes after rTKA were: re-revision (155 times), readmission (88 times), and reinfection (85 times). Only five studies included costs as outcome. Conclusion. Outcomes and prognostic factors that are routinely registered as part of clinical practice (e.g. BMI, sex, complications) or in (inter)national registries are studied frequently. Studies on prognostic factors, such as functional and sociodemographic status, and outcomes as healthcare costs, cognitive and mental function, and psychosocial impact are scarce, while they have been shown to be important for patients with osteoarthritis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):338–356

Aims. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of overall survival (OS) and predictive factors of poor prognosis of conventional high-grade osteosarcoma of the limbs in a single-centre in South Africa. Methods. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional analysis to identify the prognostic factors that predict the OS of patients with histologically confirmed high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the limbs over ten years. We employed the Cox proportional regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method for statistical analysis. Results. This study comprised 77 patients at a three-year minimum follow-up. The predictors of poor OS were: the median age of ≤ 19 years (hazard ratio (HR) 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92 to 0.99; p = 0.021); median duration of symptoms ≥ five months (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99; p < 0.037); metastasis at diagnosis (i.e. Enneking stage III) (HR 3.33; 95% CI 1.81 to 6.00; p < 0.001); increased alkaline phosphatase (HR 3.28; 95% CI 1.33 to 8.11; p < 0.010); palliative treatment (HR 7.27; 95% CI 2.69 to 19.70); p < 0.001); and amputation (HR 3.71; 95% CI 1.12 to 12.25; p < 0.032). In contrast, definitive surgery (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.38; p < 0.001) and curative treatment (HR 0.18; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.33; p < 0.001) were a protective factor. The Kaplan-Meier median survival time was 24 months, with OS of 57.1% at the three years. The projected five-year event-free survival was 10.3% and OS of 29.8% (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12; p = 0.128). Conclusion. In this series of high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the appendicular skeleton from South Africa, 58.4% (n = 45) had detectable metastases at presentation; hence, an impoverished OS of five years was 29.8%. Large-scale future research is needed to validate our results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):210–217

Aims. The study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of arthroscopic debridement and partial excision in patients with traumatic central tears of the triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC), and to identify prognostic factors associated with unfavourable clinical outcomes. Methods. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients arthroscopically diagnosed with Palmer 1 A lesions who underwent arthroscopic debridement and partial excision from March 2009 to February 2021, with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients were assessed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire, Mayo Wrist Score (MWS), and visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain. The poor outcome group was defined as patients whose preoperative and last follow-up clinical score difference was less than the minimal clinically important difference of the DASH score (10.83). Baseline characteristics, arthroscopic findings, and radiological factors (ulnar variance, MRI, or arthrography) were evaluated to predict poor clinical outcomes. Results. A total of 114 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean follow-up period of 29.8 months (SD 14.4). The mean DASH score improved from 36.5 (SD 21.5) to 16.7 (SD 14.3), the mean MWS from 59.7 (SD 17.9) to 79.3 (SD 14.3), and the mean VAS pain score improved from 5.9 (SD 1.8) to 2.2 (SD 2.0) at the last follow-up (all p < 0.001). Among the 114 patients, 16 (14%) experienced poor clinical outcomes and ten (8.8%) required secondary ulnar shortening osteotomy. Positive ulnar variance was the only factor significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes (p < 0.001). Positive ulnar variance was present in 38 patients (33%); among them, eight patients (21%) required additional operations. Conclusion. Arthroscopic debridement alone appears to be an effective and safe initial treatment for patients with traumatic central TFCC tears. The presence of positive ulnar variance was associated with poor clinical outcomes, but close observation after arthroscopic debridement is more likely to be recommended than ulnar shortening osteotomy as a primary treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):380–386

Aims. Spinal tuberculosis (TB) remains an important concern. Although spinal TB often has sequelae such as myelopathy after treatment, the predictive factors affecting such unfavourable outcomes are not yet established. We investigated the clinical manifestations and predictors of unfavourable treatment outcomes in patients with spinal TB. Patients and Methods. We performed a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients with spinal TB. Unfavourable outcome was defined according to previous studies. The prognostic factors for unfavourable outcomes as the primary outcome were determined using multivariable logistic regression analysis and a linear mixed model was used to compare time course of inflammatory markers during treatment. A total of 185 patients were included, of whom 59 patients had unfavourable outcomes. Results. In multivariate regression analysis, the factors associated with unfavourable outcome were old age (odds ratio (OR) 2.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 5.86; p = 0.034), acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear positivity in specimens obtained through biopsy (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.06 to 8.80; p = 0.039), and elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) at the end of treatment (OR 3.85; 95% CI 1.62 to 9.13; p = 0.002). Patients with unfavourable outcomes had a significant trend toward higher ESR during treatment compared with patients with favourable outcome (p = 0.009). Duration of anti-TB and surgical treatment did not affect prognosis. Conclusion. Elevated ESR at the end of treatment could be used as a marker to identify spinal TB patients with a poor prognosis. Patients whose ESR is not normalized during treatment, as well as those with old age and AFB smear positivity, should be aware of unfavourable outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1542–1549

Between 1992 and 1999, we treated 350 patients with skeletal metastases. A multivariable analysis of the patients was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified five significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the site of the primary lesion, the performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status 3 or 4), the presence of visceral or cerebral metastases, any previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The score for each significant factor was derived from the corresponding estimated regression coefficients (natural logarithm of the hazard ratio). The prognostic score was calculated by adding all the scores for individual factors. The rate of survival was 31% at six months and 11% at one year for the patients with a prognostic score of 6 or more. By contrast, patients with a prognostic score of 2 or less had a rate of survival of 98% at six months and 89% at one year. This scoring system can be used to determine the optimal treatment for patients with pathological fractures or epidural compression

This nationwide prospective study was designed to determine prognostic factors and evaluate the outcome of different treatments of Perthes’ disease. A total of 28 hospitals in Norway were instructed to report all new cases of Perthes’ disease over a period of five years and 425 patients were reported and followed for five years. Of these, 368 with unilateral disease were included in the present study. The hips were classified radiologically according to a modified two-group Catterall classification and the lateral pillar classification. A total of 358 patients (97%) attended the five-year follow-up, when a modified three-group Stulberg classification was used as a radiological outcome measure. For patients over six years of age at diagnosis and with more than 50% necrosis of the femoral head (152 patients), the surgeons at the different hospitals had chosen one of three methods of treatment: physiotherapy (55 patients), the Scottish Rite abduction orthosis (26), and proximal femoral varus osteotomy (71). Of these hips, 146 (96%) were available for the five-year follow-up. The strongest predictor of outcome was femoral head involvement of more or less than 50% (odds ratio (OR) = 7.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82 to 21.37), followed by age at diagnosis (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.99) and the lateral pillar classification (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.98). In children over six years at diagnosis with more than 50% of femoral head necrosis, proximal femoral varus osteotomy gave a significantly better outcome than orthosis (p = 0.001) or physiotherapy (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference between the physiotherapy and orthosis groups (p = 0.36), and we found no difference in outcome after any of the treatments in children under six years (p = 0.73). We recommend proximal femoral varus osteotomy in children aged six years and over at the time of diagnosis with hips having more than 50% femoral head necrosis. The abduction orthosis should be abandoned in Perthes’ disease

Aims. The aim of this paper was to investigate the prognostic factors for local recurrence in patients with pathological fracture through giant cell tumours of bone (GCTB). Patients and Methods. A total of 107 patients presenting with fractures through GCTB treated at our institution (Royal Orthopaedic Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom) between 1995 and 2016 were retrospectively studied. Of these patients, 57 were female (53%) and 50 were male (47%).The mean age at diagnosis was 33 years (14 to 86). A univariate analysis was performed, followed by multivariate analysis to identify risk factors based on the treatment and clinical characteristics. Results. The initial surgical treatment was curettage with or without adjuvants in 55 patients (51%), en bloc resection with or without reconstruction in 45 patients (42%), and neoadjuvant denosumab, followed by resection (n = 3, 3%) or curettage (n = 4, 4%). The choice of treatment depended on tumour location, Campanacci tumour staging, intra-articular involvement, and fracture displacement. Neoadjuvant denosumab was used only in fractures through Campanacci stage 3 tumours. Local recurrence occurred in 28 patients (25%). Surgery more than six weeks after the fracture did not affect the risk of recurrence in any of the groups. In Campanacci stage 3 tumours not treated with denosumab, en bloc resection had lower local recurrences (13%), compared with curettage (39%). In tumours classified as Campanacci 2, intralesional curettage and en bloc resections had similar recurrence rates (21% and 24%, respectively). After univariate analysis, the type of surgical intervention, location, and the use of denosumab were independent factors predicting local recurrence. Further surgery was required 33% more often after intralesional curettage in comparison with resections (mean 1.59, 0 to 5 vs 1.06, 0 to 3 operations). All patients treated with denosumab followed by intralesional curettage developed local recurrence. Conclusion. In patients with pathological fractures through GCTB not treated with denosumab, en bloc resection offers lower risks of local recurrence in tumours classified as Campanacci stage 3. Curettage or resections are both similar options in terms of the risk of local recurrence for tumours classified as Campanacci stage 2. The benefits of denosumab followed by intralesional curettage in these patients still remains unclear

Aim. Preoperative serum CRP has been identified as an independent predictor in various malignancies. For osteosarcoma, however, the value of serological markers is unreliable. Aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic power of preoperative CRP in patients with osteosarcoma. Method. Out of our prospective database, 87 patients with osteosarcoma (43 female, 44 male with an average age of 20.4 years) have been identified with complete documentation of peri-operative CRP-levels, a minimum two year follow-up and after exclusion of concomitant infection, smoking-history or cardio-vascular disease. Pre-operative CRP before tumour resection was correlated with clinical and pathological factors, overall survival and infection rates in an uni- and multi-variate statistical model with and without landmark analysis. Results. Mean pre-operative serum CRP was 0.73mg/dL (range 0.0 to 8.5) and significantly correlated with overall survival, age at time of operation and histological subtype, but not with sex, tumour grading, response to chemotherapy, recurrent disease or post-operative infection in uni-variate analysis. Patients with CRP <1mg/dL had a five year overall survival of 70% compared to 43% for patients with CRP >1mg/dL (p=0.023). In multi-variate analysis both age and pre-operative CRP had an independent significant influence on overall survival. The hazard ratio for patients with elevated levels of CRP was 1.252. In a subgroup analysis of 60 patients with endoprosthetic replacement, pre-operative CRP was no significant predictor for deep prosthetic infection and infection was no significant predictor for overall survival with and without landmark-analysis though patients with infection showed lower levels of CRP. However, this difference was not significant. Conclusion. Pre-operative serum CRP is an independent prognostic factor for overall survival of patients with osteosarcoma, but not for infection. Its role in predicting response to established chemotherapies, as well as the controversially discussed impact of infection on survival will remain subject of multi-centre investigations

In the treatment of osteosarcoma, many reports in the literature outline that tumor response to chemotherapy directly correlates with disease-free survival and/or mortality. The aim of this study is to evaluate if the percentage of tumor necrosis is a sole prognostic indicator of overall survival in osteosarcoma patients. We retrospectively studied 33 osteosarcoma cases treated in our institution from 1997 to 2006. All patients were treated preoperatively with HDMTX chemotherapy. The percent necrosis of the excised specimen were compared with survival rates of the patients. Sixteen patients were good responders (Huvos III, IV- > 90% necrosis), 16 patients were poor responders (Huvos I, II- < 90% necrosis), and one patient died during preop. chemotherapy. With a mean follow-up of 5,48 years (3–12 years) 22 patients are NOD (not evident disease), in 8 patient disease progressed, 8 patients died. Statistical analysis could not establish a significant correlation between percent necrosis and patient survival. Outcome of osteosarcoma may be dependent on a variety of factors s.a. tumor size, location, metastasis, surgical therapy, pathologic fracture. Tumor necrosis itself may be dependent on the histological subtype of the tumor and P-glycoprotein expression. In this series we could not establish tumor necrosis as a sole prognostic factor of patient survival

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We conducted a study to identify factors that are prognostic of the outcome of extracorporeal shockwave therapy (ESWT) for calcific tendinitis of the shoulder.

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Surgical intervention in patients with bone metastases from breast cancer is dependent on the estimated survival of the patient. The purpose of this paper was to identify factors that would predict survival so that specific decisions could be made in terms of surgical (or non-surgical) management.

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The aims of this study were to describe the course of non-operatively managed, bilateral Perthes’ disease, and to determine specific prognostic factors for the radiographic and clinical outcome.

We reviewed 87 patients who had undergone expansive cervical laminoplasty between 1999 and 2005. These were divided into two groups: those who had diabetes mellitus and those who did not. There were 31 patients in the diabetes group and 56 in the control group. Although a significant improvement in the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score was seen in both groups, the post-operative recovery rate in the control group was better than that of the diabetic group. The patients’ age and symptom duration adversely affected the rate of recovery in the diabetic group only. Smoking did not affect the outcome in either group. A logistic regression analysis found diabetes and signal changes in the spinal cord on MRI to be significant risk factors for a poor outcome (odds ratio 2.86, 3.02, respectively). Furthermore, the interaction of diabetes with smoking and/or age increased this risk.

We conclude that diabetes mellitus, or the interaction of this with old age, can adversely affect outcome after cervical laminoplasty. However, smoking alone cannot be regarded as a risk factor.

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Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery.

Introduction: We have shown that an IL6 haplotype (GGGA) associates with intervertebral disc disease (IDD) characterized by sciatica. However, its prognostic value for IDD is not known.

Materials and methods: DNA from 153 sciatica patients, who participated in a randomized controlled trial of periradicular infiltration, was analyzed for IL6 variations: c.1–597G> A, c.1–572G> C, c.1–174G> C, and c.486T> A (Genebank #NM_000600.1). Patients recorded back and leg pain intensity and duration (number of days with pain), Oswestry disability, and back-related sick leaves. Repeated measures ANCOVA with adjustment for age, gender and physical work load was used. Square root transformations of outcome data at one, two and three years after the intervention were used for skewed variables.

Results: The prevalence of the GGGA haplotype was 9% (14/153). Data was available from 10 (sick leaves) to 13 (VAS) subjects with and from 107 to 124 subjects without the haplotype. The groups did not differ with respect to pain intensities, or disability. Days with back and leg pain and sick leaves were significantly higher among subjects with the IL6 haplotype (p=0.024, 0.002 and 0.022, respectively). An interaction of the IL6 haplotype and physical work load was significant for duration of back and leg pain and sick leaves (p=0.010, 0.004 and 0.018, respectively).

Discussion: This is the first observation of any prognostic genotype among sciatica patients. The IL6 haplotype GGGA predicted the number of days with back or leg pain, and sickness absence. Subjects with the IL6 haplotype may be more vulnerable when exposed to physically demanding job.

We performed a prospective study in 186 patients with a minimum follow-up of two years in order to attempt to predict successful major re-implantation of the upper limb. There were 137 men and 49 women with 24 amputations of the palm, 75 of the wrist, 50 of the forearm, 9 disarticulations through the elbow, and 28 amputations through the upper arm.

The degree of injury to the amputated segment and the stump were good predictors of the rate of success and the final outcome. Adequate preservation, contraction of the muscle in the amputated part after stimulation, the level of injury and a smoking habit were fair indicators, but the serum potassium concentration in the amputated segment was the best objective predictor. When it is higher than 6.5 mmol/l 30 minutes after re-perfusion, re-implantation should be avoided. A high systemic venous serum potassium concentration was also found before clinical signs of the re-perfusion syndrome were seen.

Between 1987 and 2006 we performed a modified Thompson’s quadricepsplasty on 40 fracture-related stiff knees and followed the patients for a mean of 7.9 years (2 to 11.1). The factors affecting the final gain of movement were investigated. A total of 15 knees required lengthening of the rectus femoris. The mean flexion gain was 70.2° (42.3° to 112.5°). According to Judet’s criteria, the results were excellent in 30 knees, good in seven, and fair in three. The range of movement which was achieved intra-operatively was related to the gain of knee flexion on univariate analysis. Five patients had complications: deep infection in one, recurrent patellar dislocation in one, and rupture of the extensor mechanism in three. This modified technique gives satisfactory results. Achieving maximum knee flexion intra-operatively seems to be the most important factor in enhancing the outcome in patients with stiffness of the knee following fracture.