A prospective study was performed to develop a clinical prediction rule that incorporated demographic and clinical factors predictive of a fracture of the scaphoid. Of 260 consecutive patients with a clinically suspected or radiologically confirmed scaphoid fracture, 223 returned for evaluation two weeks after injury and formed the basis of our analysis. Patients were evaluated within 72 hours of injury and at approximately two and six weeks after injury using clinical assessment and standard radiographs. Demographic data and the results of seven specific tests in the clinical examination were recorded.

There were 116 (52%) men and their mean age was 33 years (13 to 95; sd 17.9). In 62 patients (28%) a scaphoid fracture was confirmed. A logistic regression model identified male gender (p = 0.002), sports injury (p = 0.004), anatomical snuff box pain on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury (p < 0.001), and scaphoid tubercle tenderness at two weeks (p < 0.001) as independent predictors of fracture. All patients with no pain at the anatomical snuff box on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury did not have a fracture (n = 72, 32%). With four independently significant factors positive, the risk of fracture was 91%.

Our study has demonstrated that clinical prediction rules have a considerable influence on the probability of a suspected scaphoid fracture. This will help improve the use of supplementary investigations where the diagnosis remains in doubt.

Aims

The primary aim was to assess the independent influence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on 30-day mortality for patients with a hip fracture. The secondary aims were to determine whether: 1) there were clinical predictors of COVID-19 status; and 2) whether social lockdown influenced the incidence and epidemiology of hip fractures.

This international multicentre retrospective cohort study aimed to assess: 1) prevalence of COVID-19 in hip fracture patients, 2) effect on mortality, and 3) clinical factors associated mortality among COVID-19-positive patients.

A collaboration among 112 centres in 14 nations collected data on all patients with a hip fracture between 1st March-31st May 2020. Patient, injury and surgical factors were recorded, and outcome measures included admission duration, COVID-19 and 30-day mortality status.

There were 7090 patients and 651 (9.2%) were COVID-19-positive. COVID-19 was independently associated with male sex (p=0.001), residential care (p<0.001), inpatient fall (p=0.003), cancer (p=0.009), ASA grade 4–5 (p=0.008; p<0.001), and longer admission (p<0.001). Patients with COVID-19 had a significantly lower chance of 30-day survival versus those without (72.7% versus 92.6%, p<0.001), and COVID-19 was independently associated with increased 30-day mortality risk (p<0.001). Increasing age (p=0.028), male sex (p<0.001), renal (p=0.017) and pulmonary disease (p=0·039) were independently associated with higher 30-day mortality risk in patients with COVID-19 when adjusting for confounders.

The prevalence of COVID-19 in hip fracture patients was 9% and was independently associated with a three-fold increased 30-day mortality risk. Clinical factors associated with mortality among COVID-19-positive hip fracture patients were identified for the first time. This is the largest study, and the only global cohort, reporting on the effect of COVID-19 in hip fracture patients. The findings provide a benchmark against which to determine vaccine efficacy in this vulnerable population and are especially important in the context of incomplete vaccination programmes and the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains.

The aims were: (1) assess the influence of COVID-19 on mortality in hip fracture; (2) identify predictors of COVID-19 status, and (3) investigate whether social lockdown influenced the epidemiology of hip fracture.

A multicentre retrospective study was conducted of all patients presenting to six hospitals with hip fracture over a 46-day period (23 days pre-/post-lockdown). Demographics, residence, place of injury, presentation blood tests, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, time to surgery, operation, ASA grade, anaesthetic, length of stay, COVID-19 status, and 30-day mortality were recorded.

Of 317 patients with hip fracture 27 (8.5%) had a positive COVID-19 test; only 7 (26%) had symptoms on admission. COVID-19-positive patients had significantly lower 30-day survival compared to those without COVID-19 (67% versus 92%, p<0.001). COVID-19 was independently associated with increased 30-day mortality adjusting for: (1) age, sex, residence (HR 2.93, p=0.008); (2) Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (HR 3.52, p=0.001), and (3) ASA (HR 3.45, p=0.004). Platelet count predicted subsequent COVID-19 status; a value <217 ×109/L was 68% specific and sensitive (95% CI 58 to 77, p=0.002). A similar number of patients presented with hip fracture pre-lockdown (n=160) and post-lockdown (n=157); there was no significant difference in demographics, place of injury, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, time to surgery, ASA, or management.

COVID-19 was independently associated with an increased 30-day mortality in hip fracture. Most patients with COVID-19 lacked suggestive symptoms at presentation. Platelet count was an indicator of risk of COVID-19 infection. These findings have urgent implications for the delivery of hip fracture services.

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to address the hypothesis that fracture morphology might be more important than posterior malleolar fragment size in rotational type posterior malleolar ankle fractures (PMAFs). The secondary aim was to identify clinically important predictors of outcome for each respective PMAF-type, to challenge the current dogma that surgical decision-making should be based on fragment size.

The aim of the study was to describe the failure rate of locking plates used for internal fixation of distal femoral fractures and to identify independent predictors of failure.

A consecutive series of 147 patients presenting to the study unit during an 8 year period with a distal femoral fracture were identified from a prospectively compiled trauma database. There were 117 females and 30 males, with a mean age of 70.7 years (13 to 99 years), of which 77 were periprosthetic fractures and 70 were supracondylar fractures around native knees.

There were 35 failures of fixation. The commonest cause was non-union (n=31). The survival of the plate 2 years post-surgery was 74percnt; (95percnt; CI 64percnt; to 84percnt;), which remained static to a mean follow of 5 years. There was no difference in failure of fixation according to gender (p=0.32) or if there was a periprosthetic fracture (p=0.8). Younger age (61.8 vs. 73.6 years, p=0.004), increasing level of comorbidity (p=0.02), and fracture comminution (p=0.001) were all significant predictors of failure of fixation. Cox regression analysis confirmed younger age (p=0.04), increasing comorbidity (p=0.002), and fracture comminution (p=0.002) as independent predictors of failure of fixation and non-union after adjusting for confounding.

The failure of locking plates for distal femoral fractures occurs in more than one in five patients. The independent predictors could be used to identify those patients at greatest risk of failure of the locking plate, who may benefit from alternative methods of fixation, primary bone grafting, or interventions that may aid union.

Background

Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty provides a good alternative to total knee arthroplasty in patients with isolated medial compartment osteoarthritis. There has been variable reporting in the literature as to whether age and sex affect the survival of unicompartmental knee arthroplasty. The aim of this study was to determine whether age and sex were predictors of failure for the Oxford unicompartmental knee arthroplasty.

We aimed to identify variables associated with clinical and radiological outcome following fractures of the acetabulum associated with posterior dislocation of the hip. Using a prospective database of 1076 such fractures, we identified 109 patients with this combined injury managed operatively within three weeks and followed up for two or more years. The patients had a mean age of 42 years (15 to 79), 78 (72%) were male, and 84 (77%) had been involved in motor vehicle accidents. Using multivariate analysis the quality of reduction of the fracture was identified as the only significant predictor of radiological grade, clinical function and the development of post-traumatic arthritis (p < 0.001). All patients lacking anatomical reduction developed arthritis whereas only 25.5% (24 patients) with an anatomical reduction did so (p = 0.05).

The quality of the reduction of the fracture is the most important variable in forecasting the outcome for patients with this injury. The interval to reduction of the dislocation of the hip may be less important than previously described.

Aims

Patient engagement in adaptive health behaviours and interactions with their healthcare ecosystem can be measured using self-reported instruments, such as the Patient Activation Measure (PAM-13) and the Effective Consumer Scale (ECS-17). Few studies have investigated the influence of patient engagement on limitations (patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs)) and patient-reported experience measures (PREMs). First, we assessed whether patient engagement (PAM-13, ECS-17) within two to four weeks of an upper limb fracture was associated with limitations (the Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QuickDASH), and Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System Upper Extremity Physical Function computer adaptive test (PROMIS UE PF) scores) measured six to nine months after fracture, accounting for demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors. Secondly, we assessed the association between patient engagement and experience (numerical rating scale for satisfaction with care (NRS-C) and satisfaction with services (NRS-S) six to nine months after fracture.

The primary aim was to assess survival of the opening wedge high tibial osteotomy (HTO) for medial compartment osteoarthritis. The secondary aim was to identify independent predictors of early (before 12 years) conversion to total knee arthroplasty (TKA).

During the 18-year period (1994–2011) 111 opening wedge HTO were performed at the study centre. Mean patient age was 45 years (range 18–68) and the majority were male (84%). Mean follow-up was 12 (range 6–21) years. Failure was defined as conversion to TKA. Kaplan-Meier, Cox regression and receiver operating curve (ROC) analyses were performed.

Forty (36%) HTO failed at a mean follow-up of 6.3 (range 1–15) years. The five-year survival rate was 84% (95% confidence interval (CI) 82.6–85.4), 10-year rate 65% (95% CI 63.5–66.5) and 15-year rate 55% (95% CI 53.3–56.7). Cox regression analysis identified older age (p<0.001) and female gender (hazard ratio (HR) 2.37, 95% CI 1.06–5.33, p=0.04) as independent predictors of failure. ROC analysis identified a threshold age of 47 years above which the risk of failure increased significantly (area under curve 0.72, 95% CI 0.62–0.81, p<0.001). Cox regression analysis, adjusting for covariates, identified a significantly greater (HR 2.49, 95% CI 1.26–4.91, p=0.01) risk of failure in patients aged 47 years old or more.

The risk of early conversion to TKA after an opening wedge HTO is significantly increased in female patients and those older than 47 years old. These risk factors should be considered pre-operatively and discussed with patients when planning surgical intervention for isolated medial compartment osteoarthritis.

The reported results of compression fractures are poor. These results are not influenced by the severity of compression, the fracture site or the residual deformity. Otherwise, the factors that determine a patient's recovery are unknown. This study wants to identify the factors determining a patient's recovery after surgical treatment of compression fractures of the thoracolumbar spine. Therefore, in 31 surgically treated patients the pre-injury versus the 12-month follow-up differences in back pain, in global outcome and in participation were prospectively recorded. For this, the visual analogue scale for pain (VAS scale) and the Greenough and Fraser low back outcome scale were used. Of the latter scale, the 3 questions pertaining to participation were combined to create a participation subscale. For these differences and for time lost from work multiple linear regressions with combinations of 16 possible predictors were performed.

At one year patients who smoke report a 25% less favorable global outcome and return 2.8 points (out of 10) less closely to their pre-injury pain level than patients who do not smoke. Patients with a fracture at the thoraco-lumbar junction return 3.3 points less closely to their pre-injury level on the VAS scale than those with a lumbar fracture. For each decrease in 1 of the 3 education levels, the patients stay away from work 15 weeks longer. Per degree of sagittal index at follow-up, patients stay 9 days longer at home. For each increase in level of occupation the return to the pre-injury participation level is 10% less favorable. The variability of time lost from work and of recovery of global outcome, pain and participation level explained by our models is 73%, 37%, 25% and 13% respectively.

Smoking, localization of the fracture at the thoraco-lumbar junction and a high pre-existent level of occupation are strong negative predictors for recovery. A lower education level and sagittal fracture deformity at follow-up are negative predictors for sick leave but might also reflect the concerns of the physician when deciding about return to work.

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

We report a cost-effectiveness analysis of Primary Total Ankle Replacements (TAR). In addition, we looked for factors that could be predictors of increased gain in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Pre-operative and six-month post-operative data for TAR was obtained over seven-and-a-half-years in NHS Lothian. The EuroQol general health questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) measured health-related Quality of Life and the Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire (MOXFQ) measured joint function. Predictors, tested for significance with QALYs gained, were pre-operative scores and demographic data including age, gender, BMI and Deprivation category. Continuous variables were assessed with Pearson correlation coefficients, Deprivation and BMI categories with Boxplots and gender with the Mann-Whitney U test. The 74-patient cohort [Mean age 68.03 (SD 8.61), 60.8% male] had 49% classed as obese or higher. Cost per QALY gained was £3841, rising to £9202 when annual 3.5% reduction in health gains and 1.9% revision rates were included. Lower pre-operative EQ-5D-3L index correlated significantly with increased QALYs gained (p <0.01), all other predictors returned insignificant results (p >0.05). Primary TAR has proven very cost-effective in treating end-stage ankle arthritis. Pre-operative EQ-5D-3L is the most promising predictor of QALYs gained identified

Aims. The aims of this study were to determine the cumulative ten-year survivorship of hips treated for acetabular fractures using surgical hip dislocation and to identify factors predictive of an unfavourable outcome. Patients and Methods. We followed up 60 consecutive patients (61 hips; mean age 36.3 years, standard deviation (. sd. ) 15) who underwent open reduction and internal fixation for a displaced fracture of the acetabulum (24 posterior wall, 18 transverse and posterior wall, ten transverse, and nine others) with a mean follow-up of 12.4 years (. sd. 3). . Results. Clinical grading was assessed using the modified Merle d’Aubigné score. Radiographic osteoarthritis was graded according to Matta. Kaplan-Meier survivorship and a univariate Cox-regression analysis were carried out using the following endpoints: total hip arthroplasty, a Merle d’Aubigné score of < 15 and/or progression of osteoarthritis. . Conclusion. The ten-year cumulative survivorship was 82% (95% confidence interval 71 to 92). Predictors for the defined endpoints were femoral chondral lesions, marginal impaction, duration of surgery, and age of patient. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:508–15

Aims

The aim of this study was to describe the demographic details of patients who sustain a femoral periprosthetic fracture (PPF), the epidemiology of PPFs, PPF characteristics, and the predictors of PPF types in the UK population.

Aims

The aim of this study was to describe the management and associated outcomes of patients sustaining a femoral hip periprosthetic fracture (PPF) in the UK population.

Aims

Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data.

Aims

The primary aim was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of routine operative fixation for all patients with humeral shaft fractures. The secondary aim was to estimate the health economic implications of using a Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU) of < 8 to facilitate selective fixation for patients at risk of nonunion.

The aim was to perform a cost-utility analysis of total joint replacement in the current environment. Arthritis is a disabling condition that leads to long-term deterioration in quality of life. Total joint replacement, despite being one of the greatest advances in medicine in the modern era, has come under recent scrutiny. The National Health Service (NHS) has competing demands and resource allocation is challenging in times of economic restraint. Patients undergoing total hip (n=348) and knee arthroplasty (n=323), from January to July 2010, were entered into a prospective arthroplasty database. A health utility score was derived from the Euroqol (EQ-5D) score preoperatively, and at one year, and was combined with individual life expectancy to derive the Quality-Adujusted-Life-Years (QALYs) gained. Predicted need for revision surgery was Incorporated in the model. The 2011–12 Scottish Tariff was used. Two-way analysis of variance was used to compare QALYs gained between procedures, while controlling for baseline differences. The number of QALYs gained was higher in THR versus TKR (6.53 vs 4.04 years, p<0.001). The cost per QALY for THR was £1371 (95% CI £1194 to £1614) compared with £2101 (£1762 to £2620) for TKR. Predictors of an increase in QALYs gained were poorer health prior to surgery (p<0.001) and younger age (p<0.001). General health (EQ-5D VAS) showed greater improvement in THR versus TKR (p<0.001). This study provides up to date cost-effectiveness data for total joint replacement. THR and TKR are both extremely clinically and cost-effective interventions, with costs that compare favourably with other medical interventions (e.g. laparoscopic hernia repair vs open: £55,548 per QALY; CHD primary prevention with statins: £21,000)

Despite the increase in numbers of the extreme elderly, little data is available regarding their outcome after surgery for fracture of the hip. We performed a prospective study of 50 patients aged 95 years and over who underwent this procedure. Outcome measures included morbidity, mortality, hospital stay, residential and walking status. Comparison was made with a control group of 200 consecutive patients aged less than 95 years who had a similar operation. The mortality at 28 and 120 days was higher (p = 0.005, p = 0.001) in the patients over 95 years. However, the one-year cumulative post-operative mortality was neither significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.229) nor from the standardised mortality rate for the age-matched population (p = 0.445). Predictors of mortality included the ASA grade, the number of comorbid medical conditions and active medical problems on admission. Patients over 95 were unlikely to recover their independence and at a mean follow-up of 29.3 months (12.1 to 48) 96% required permanent institutional care