Aims. It is not known whether preservation of the capsule of the hip positively affects patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in total hip arthroplasty using the direct anterior approach (DAA-THA). A recent randomized controlled trial found no clinically significant difference at one year postoperatively. This study aimed to determine whether preservation of the anterolateral capsule and anatomical closure improve the outcome and revision rate, when compared with resection of the anterolateral capsule, at two years postoperatively. Methods. Two consecutive groups of patients whose operations were performed by the senior author were compared. The anterolateral capsule was resected in the first group of 430 patients between January 2012 and December 2014, and preserved and anatomically closed in the second group of 450 patients between July 2015 and December 2017. There were no other technical changes between the two groups. Patient characteristics, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and surgical data were collected from our database. PROM questionnaires, consisting of the Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI-Hip), were collected two years postoperatively. Data were analyzed with generalized multiple regression analysis. Results. The characteristics, CCI, operating time, and length of stay were similar in both groups. There was significantly less blood loss in the capsular preservation group (p = 0.037). The revision rate (n = 3, (0.6%) in the resected group, and 1 (0.2%) in the preserved group) did not differ significantly (p = 0.295). Once adjusted for demographic and surgical factors, the preserved group had significantly worse PROMs: + 0.24 COMI-Hip (p < 0.001) and -1.6 OHS points (p = 0.017). However, the effect sizes were much smaller than the minimal clinically important differences (MCIDs) of 0.95 and 5, respectively). The date of surgery (influencing, for instance, the surgeon’s age) was not a significant factor. Conclusion. Based on the MCID, the lower PROMs in the capsular preservation group do not seem to have clinical relevance. They do not, however, confirm the expected benefit of capsular preservation reported for the posterolateral approach. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):826–832

Aims. Although periacetabular osteotomies are widely used for the treatment of symptomatic dysplastic hips, long-term surgical outcomes and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are still unclear. Accordingly, we assessed hip survival and PROMs at 20 years after transpositional osteotomy of the acetabulum (TOA). Methods. A total of 172 hips in 159 patients who underwent TOA were followed up at a mean of 21.02 years (16.6 to 24.6) postoperatively. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess survivorship with an endpoint of total hip arthroplasty (THA). PROMs included the visual analogue scale (VAS) Satisfaction, VAS Pain, Oxford Hip Score (OHS), and Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12). Thresholds for favourable outcomes for OHS (≥ 42) and FJS-12 (≥ 51) were obtained using the receiver operating characteristic curve with VAS Satisfaction ≥ 50 and VAS Pain < 20 as anchors. Results. THA was performed on 37 hips (21.5%) by the latest follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the hip survival rate at 20 years was 79.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 73.7 to 86.3). Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative Tönnis grade significantly influenced hip survival. Tönnis grades 0, 1, and 2 were associated with 20-year survival rates of 93.3% (95% CI 84.8 to 100), 86.7% (95% CI 79.8 to 94.3), and 54.8% (95% CI 41.5 to 72.3), respectively. More than 60% of the patients exhibited favourable PROMs. An advanced Tönnis grade at the latest follow-up and a higher BMI were both significantly associated with unfavourable OHS, but not with other PROMs. Conclusion. This study demonstrated the durability of TOA for hips with Tönnis grades 0 to 1 at 20 years. While the presence of advanced osteoarthritis and higher BMI was associated with lower hip functions (OHS), it was not necessarily associated with worse patient satisfaction and joint awareness. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):767–774

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess medium-term improvements following total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to evaluate what effect different preoperative Oxford Hip Score (OHS) thresholds for treatment may have on patients’ access to THA and outcomes. Methods. Patients undergoing primary THA at our institution with an OHS both preoperatively and at least four years postoperatively were included. Rationing thresholds were explored to identify possible deprivation of OHS improvement. Results. Overall, 2,341 patients were included. Mean OHS was 19.7 (SD 8.2) preoperatively and 39.7 (SD 9.8) at latest follow-up. An improvement of at least eight-points, the minimally important change (MIC), was seen in 2,072 patients (88.5%). The mean improvement was 20.0 points (SD 10.5). If a rationing threshold of OHS of 20 points had been enforced, 90.8% of those treated would have achieved the MIC, but only 54.3% of our cohort would have had access to surgery; increasing this threshold to 32 would have enabled 89.5% of those treated to achieve the MIC while only depriving 6.5% of our cohort. The ‘rationed’ group of OHS > 20 had significantly better OHS at latest follow-up (42.6 vs 37.3; p < 0.001), while extending the rationing threshold above 32 showed postoperative scores were more significantly affected by the ceiling effect of the OHS. Conclusion. The OHS was not designed as a tool to ration healthcare, but if it had been used at our institution for this cohort, applying an OHS threshold of 20 to routine THA access would have excluded nearly half of patients from having a THA; a group in which over 85% had a significant improvement in OHS. Where its use for rationing is deemed necessary, use of a higher threshold may be more appropriate to ensure a better balance between patient access to treatment and chances of achieving good to excellent outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(3):196–204

Aims. Young adults undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) largely have different indications for surgery, preoperative function, and postoperative goals compared to a standard patient group. The aim of our study was to describe young adult THA preoperative function and quality of life, and to assess postoperative satisfaction and compare this with functional outcome measures. Methods. A retrospective cohort analysis of young adults (aged < 50 years) undergoing THA between May 2018 and May 2023 in a single tertiary centre was undertaken. Median follow-up was 31 months (12 to 61). Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and focus group-designed questionnaires were distributed. Searches identified 244 cases in 225 patients. Those aged aged under 30 years represented 22.7% of the cohort. Developmental dysplasia of the hip (50; 45.5%) and Perthes’ disease (15; 13.6%) were the commonest indications for THA. Results. Preoperatively, of 110 patients, 19 (17.2%) were unable to work before THA, 57 (52%) required opioid analgesia, 51 (46.4%) were reliant upon walking aids, and 70 (63.6%) had sexual activity limited by their pathology. One patient required revision due to instability. Mean OHS was 39 (9 to 48). There was a significant difference between the OHS of cases where THA met expectation, compared with the OHS when it did not (satisfied: 86 (78.2%), OHS: 41.2 (36.1%) vs non-satisfied: 24 (21%), OHS: 31.6; p ≤ 0.001). Only one of the 83 patients (75.5%) who returned to premorbid levels of activity did so after 12 months. Conclusion. Satisfaction rates of THA in young adults is high, albeit lower than commonly quoted figures. Young adults awaiting THA have poor function with high requirements for mobility aids, analgesia, and difficulties in working and undertaking leisure activities. The OHS provided a useful insight into patient function and was predictive of satisfaction rates, although it did not address the specific demands of young adults undertaking THA. Function at one year postoperatively is a good indication of overall outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):304–311

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the mid-term patient-reported outcome, bone remodelling, and migration of a short stem (Collum Femoris Preserving; CFP) with a conventional uncemented stem (Corail). Methods. Of 81 patients who were initially enrolled, 71 were available at five years’ follow-up. The outcomes at two years have previously been reported. The primary outcome measure was the clinical result assessed using the Oxford Hip Score (OHS). Secondary outcomes were the migration of the stem, measured using radiostereometric analysis (RSA), change of bone mineral density (BMD) around the stem, the development of radiolucent lines, and additional patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Results. There were no statistically significant differences between the groups regarding PROMs (median OHS (CFP 45 (interquartile range (IQR) 35 to 48); Corail 45 (IQR 40 to 48); p = 0.568). RSA showed stable stems in both groups, with little or no further subsidence between two and five years. Resorption of the femoral neck was evident in nine patients in the CFP group and in none of the 15 Corail stems with a collar that could be studied. Dual X-ray absorbiometry showed a significantly higher loss of BMD in the proximal Gruen zones in the CFP group (mean changes in BMD: Gruen zone 1, CFP -9.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) -14.8 to -4.2), Corail 1.0 (95% CI 3.4 to 5.4); Gruen zone 7, CFP -23.0 (95% CI -29.4 to -16.6), Corail -7.2 (95% CI -15.9 to 1.4). Two CFP stems were revised before two years’ follow-up due to loosening, and one Corail stem was revised after two years due to chronic infection. Conclusion. The CFP stem has a similar clinical outcome and subsidence pattern when compared with the Corail stem. More pronounced proximal stress-shielding was seen with the CFP stem, suggesting diaphyseal fixation, and questioning its femoral neck-sparing properties in the long term. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):581–588

Aims. The aim of this study was to perform a cross-cultural adaptation of Oxford Hip Score (OHS) to Indonesian, and to evaluate its psychometric properties. Methods. We performed a cross-cultural adaptation of Oxford Hip Score into Indonesian language (OHS-ID) and determined its internal consistency, test-retest reliability, measurement error, floor-ceiling effect, responsiveness, and construct validity by hypotheses testing of its correlation with Harris Hip Score (HHS), vsual analogue scale (VAS), and Short Form-36 (SF-36). Adults (> 17 years old) with chronic hip pain (osteoarthritis or osteonecrosis) were included. Results. A total of 125 patients were included, including 50 total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients with six months follow-up. The OHS questionnaire was translated into Indonesian and showed good internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.89) and good reliability (intraclass correlation = 0.98). The standard error of measurement value of 2.11 resulted in minimal detectable change score of 5.8. Ten out of ten (100%) a priori hypotheses were met, confirming the construct validity. A strong correlation was found with two subscales of SF-36 (pain and physical function), HHS (0.94), and VAS (-0.83). OHS-ID also showed good responsiveness for post-THA series. Floor and ceiling effect was not found. Conclusion. The Indonesian version of OHS showed similar reliability and validity with the original OHS. This questionnaire will be suitable to assess chronic hip pain in Indonesian-speaking patients. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(9):765–772

Aims. Golf is a popular pursuit among those requiring total hip arthroplasty (THA). The aim of this study was to determine if participating in golf is associated with greater functional outcomes, satisfaction, or improvement in quality of life (QoL) compared to non-golfers. Methods. All patients undergoing primary THA over a one-year period at a single institution were included with one-year postoperative outcomes. Patients were retrospectively followed up to assess if they had been golfers at the time of their surgery. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to assess the independent association of preoperative golfing status on outcomes. Results. The study cohort consisted of a total of 308 patients undergoing THA, of whom 44 were golfers (14%). This included 120 male patients (39%) and 188 female patients (61%), with an overall mean age of 67.8 years (SD 11.6). Golfers had a greater mean postoperative Oxford Hip Score (OHS) (3.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9 to 5.5); p < 0.001) and EuroQol visual analogue scale (5.5 (95% CI 0.1 to 11.9); p = 0.039). However, there were no differences in EuroQoL five-dimension score (p = 0.124), pain visual analogue scale (p = 0.505), or Forgotten Joint Score (p = 0.215). When adjusting for confounders, golfers had a greater improvement in their Oxford Hip Score (2.7 (95% CI 0.2 to 5.3); p < 0.001) compared to non-golfers. Of the 44 patients who reported being golfers at the time of their surgery, 32 (72.7%) returned to golf and 84.4% of those were satisfied with their involvement in golf following surgery. Those who returned to golf were more likely to be male (p = 0.039) and had higher (better) preoperative health-related QoL (p = 0.040) and hip-related functional scores (p = 0.026). Conclusion. Golfers had a greater improvement in their hip-specific function compared to non-golfers after THA. However, less than three-quarters of patients return to golf, with male patients and those who had greater preoperative QoL or hip-related function being more likely to return to play. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(2):145–151

Aims. After failed acetabular fractures, total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a challenging procedure and considered the gold standard treatment. The complexity of the procedure depends on the fracture pattern and the initial fracture management. This study’s primary aim was to evaluate patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for patients who underwent delayed uncemented acetabular THA after acetabular fractures. The secondary aims were to assess the radiological outcome and the incidence of the associated complications in those patients. Methods. A total of 40 patients underwent cementless acetabular THA following failed treatment of acetabular fractures. The postoperative clinical and radiological outcomes were evaluated for all the cohort. Results. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) Oxford Hip Score (OHS) improved significantly from 9.5 (7 to 11.5), (95% confidence interval (CI) (8 to 10.6)) to 40 (39 to 44), (95% CI (40 to 43)) postoperatively at the latest follow-up (p < 0.001). It was worth noting that the initial acetabular fracture type (simple vs complex), previous acetabular treatment (ORIF vs conservative), fracture union, and restoration of anatomical centre of rotation (COR) did not affect the final OHS. The reconstructed centre of rotation (COR) was restored in 29 (72.5%) patients. The mean abduction angle in whom acetabular fractures were managed conservatively was statistically significantly higher than the surgically treated patients 42.6° (SD 7.4) vs 38° (SD 5.6)) (p = 0.032). We did not have any case of acetabular or femoral loosening at the time of the last follow-up. We had two patients with successful two-stage revision for infection with overall eight-year survival rate was 95.2% (95% CI 86.6% to 100%) with revision for any reason at a median (IQR) duration of follow-up 50 months (16 to 87) months following THA. Conclusion. Delayed cementless acetabular THA in patients with previous failed acetabular fracture treatments produces good clinical outcomes (PROMS) with excellent survivorship, despite the technically demanding nature of the procedure. The initial fracture treatment does not influence the outcome of delayed THA. In selected cases of acetabular fractures (either nondisplaced or with secondary congruency), the initial nonoperative treatment neither resulted in large acetabular defects nor required additional acetabular reconstruction at the time of THA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(12):1067–1074

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The Birmingham Hip Resurfacing (BHR) was introduced in 1997 to address the needs of young active patients using a historically proven large-diameter metal-on-metal (MoM) bearing. A single designer surgeon’s consecutive series of 130 patients (144 hips) was previously reported at five and ten years, reporting three and ten failures, respectively. The aim of this study was to extend the follow-up of this original cohort at 25 years.

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The aim of this study was to estimate the clinical and economic burden of dislocation following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) in England.

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To establish the survivorship, function, and metal ion levels in an unselected series of metal-on-metal hip resurfacing arthroplasties (HRAs) performed by a non-designer surgeon.

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The aim of this study was to identify the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), minimal important change (MIC), minimal detectable change (MDC), and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) in the Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) according to patient satisfaction six months following total hip arthroplasty (THA) in a UK population.

Aims. This study investigates the use of the metabolic equivalent of task (MET) score in a young hip arthroplasty population, and its ability to capture additional benefit beyond the ceiling effect of conventional patient-reported outcome measures. Methods. From our electronic database of 751 hip arthroplasty procedures, 221 patients were included. Patients were excluded if they had revision surgery, an alternative hip procedure, or incomplete data either preoperatively or at one-year follow-up. Included patients had a mean age of 59.4 years (SD 11.3) and 54.3% were male, incorporating 117 primary total hip and 104 hip resurfacing arthroplasty operations. Oxford Hip Score (OHS), EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D), and the MET were recorded preoperatively and at one-year follow-up. The distribution was examined reporting the presence of ceiling and floor effects. Validity was assessed correlating the MET with the other scores using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and determining responsiveness. A subgroup of 93 patients scoring 48/48 on the OHS were analyzed by age, sex, BMI, and preoperative MET using the other metrics to determine if differences could be established despite scoring identically on the OHS. Results. Postoperatively the OHS and EQ-5D demonstrate considerable negatively skewed distributions with ceiling effects of 41.6% and 53.8%, respectively. The MET was normally distributed postoperatively with no relevant ceiling effect. Weak-to-moderate significant correlations were found between the MET and the other two metrics. In the 48/48 subgroup, no differences were found comparing groups with the EQ-5D, however significantly higher mean MET scores were demonstrated for patients aged < 60 years (12.7 (SD 4.7) vs 10.6 (SD 2.4), p = 0.008), male patients (12.5 (SD 4.5) vs 10.8 (SD 2.8), p = 0.024), and those with preoperative MET scores > 6 (12.6 (SD 4.2) vs 11.0 (SD 3.3), p = 0.040). Conclusion. The MET is normally distributed in patients following hip arthroplasty, recording levels of activity which are undetectable using the OHS. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(5):317–326

Aims. The aim of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate the early migration of the TriFit cementless proximally coated tapered femoral stem using radiostereometric analysis (RSA). Methods. A total of 21 patients (eight men and 13 women) undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis of the hip were recruited in this study and followed up for two years. Two patients were lost to follow-up. All patients received a TriFit stem and Trinity Cup with a vitamin E-infused highly cross-linked ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene liner. Radiographs for RSA were taken postoperatively and then at three, 12, and 24 months. Oxford Hip Score (OHS), EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D), and adverse events were reported. Results. At two years, the mean subsidence of the head and tip for the TriFit stem was 0.38 mm (SD 0.32) and 0.52 mm (SD 0.36), respectively. The total migration of the head and tip was 0.55 mm (SD 0.32) and 0.71 mm (SD 0.38), respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between the three to 12 months' migration (p = 0.105) and 12 to 24 months' migration (p = 0.694). The OHS and EQ-5D showed significant improvements at two years. Conclusion. The results of this study suggest that the TriFit femoral stem achieves initial stability and is likely to be stable in the mid and long term. A long-term outcome study is required to assess late mechanisms of failure and the effects of bone mineral density (BMD) related changes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):644–649

Aims. Cement-in-cement revision of the femoral component represents a widely practised technique for a variety of indications in revision total hip arthroplasty. In this study, we compare the clinical and radiological outcomes of two polished tapered femoral components. Methods. From our prospectively collated database, we identified all patients undergoing cement-in-cement revision from January 2005 to January 2013 who had a minimum of two years' follow-up. All cases were performed by the senior author using either an Exeter short revision stem or the C-Stem AMT high offset No. 1 prosthesis. Patients were followed-up annually with clinical and radiological assessment. Results. A total of 97 patients matched the inclusion criteria (50 Exeter and 47 C-Stem AMT components). There were no significant differences between the patient demographic data in either group. Mean follow-up was 9.7 years. A significant improvement in Oxford Hip Score (OHS), Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), and 12-item Short-Form Survey (SF-12) scores was observed in both cohorts. Leg lengths were significantly shorter in the Exeter group, with a mean of -4 mm in this cohort compared with 0 mm in the C-Stem AMT group. One patient in the Exeter group had early evidence of radiological loosening. In total, 16 patients (15%) underwent further revision of the femoral component (seven in the C-Stem AMT group and nine in the Exeter group). No femoral components were revised for aseptic loosening. There were two cases of femoral component fracture in the Exeter group. Conclusion. Our series shows promising mid-term outcomes for the cement-in-cement revision technique using either the Exeter or C-Stem AMT components. These results demonstrate that cement-in-cement revision using a double or triple taper-slip design is a safe and reliable technique when used for the correct indications. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7):1215–1221

Aims. We compared the clinical outcomes of curved intertrochanteric varus osteotomy (CVO) with bone impaction grafting (BIG) with CVO alone for the treatment of osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH). Methods. This retrospective comparative study included 81 patients with ONFH; 37 patients (40 hips) underwent CVO with BIG (BIG group) and 44 patients (47 hips) underwent CVO alone (CVO group). Patients in the BIG group were followed-up for a mean of 12.2 years (10.0 to 16.5). Patients in the CVO group were followed-up for a mean of 14.5 years (10.0 to 21.0). Assessment parameters included the Harris Hip Score (HHS), Oxford Hip Score (OHS), Japanese Orthopaedic Association Hip-Disease Evaluation Questionnaire (JHEQ), complication rates, and survival rates, with conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and radiological failure as the endpoints. Results. There were no significant differences in preoperative and postoperative HHS or postoperative OHS and JHEQ between the BIG group and the CVO group. Complication rates were comparable between groups. Ten-year survival rates with conversion to THA and radiological failure as the endpoints were not significantly different between groups. Successful CVO (postoperative coverage ratio of more than one-third) exhibited better ten-year survival rates with radiological failure as the endpoint in the BIG group (91.4%) than in the CVO group (77.7%), but this difference was not significant (p = 0.079). Conclusion. Long-term outcomes of CVO with BIG were favourable when proper patient selection and accurate surgery are performed. However, this study did not show improvements in treatment results with the concomitant use of BIG. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):665–671

Aims. The purpose of this study was to compare the clinical, radiological, and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in the first 100 consecutive patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) via a direct superior approach (DSA) with a matched group of patients undergoing THA by the same surgeon, using a posterolateral approach (PLA). Methods. This was a retrospective single surgeon study comparing the first 100 consecutive DSA THA patients with a matched group of patients using a standard PLA. Case notes were examined for patient demographics, length of hospital stay, operating time, intra- and postoperative complications, pain score, satisfaction score, and Oxford Hip Score (OHS). Leg length discrepancy and component positioning were measured from postoperative plain radiographs. Results. The DSA patients had a shorter length of hospital stay (mean 2.09 days (SD 1.20) DSA vs 2.74 days (SD 1.17) PLA; p < 0.001) and shorter time to discharge from the inpatient physiotherapy teams (mean 1.44 days (SD 1.17) DSA vs 1.93 days (SD 0.96) PLA; p < 0.001). There were no differences in operating time (p = 0.505), pain levels up to postoperative day 1 (p = 0.106 to p =0.242), OHS (p = 0.594 to p = 0.815), satisfaction levels (p = 0.066 to p = 0.299), stem alignment (p = 0.240), acetabular component inclination (p < 0.001) and anteversion (p < 0.001), or leg length discrepancy (p = 0.134). Conclusion. While the DSA appears safe and was not associated with a significant difference in PROMs, radiological findings, or intraoperative or postoperative complications, a randomized controlled trial with functional outcomes in the postoperative phase is needed to evaluate this surgical approach formally. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):500–506

Femoroacetabular impingement is a prearthritic deformity frequently associated with early chondral damage. Several techniques exist for restoring larger cartilage defects. While AMIC proved to be an effective treatment in knee and ankle, there are only short-term data available in hip. This study aimed to investigate the mid-term clinical outcome of patients with chondral lesions treated by AMIC and evaluate the quality of repair tissue via MRI. This retrospective, single center study includes 18 patients undergoing surgical hip dislocation for FAI between 2013 and 2016. Inclusion criteria were: cam or pincer-type FAI, femoral or acetabular chondral lesions > 1 cm. 2. , (IRCS III-IV). Due to exclusion criteria and loss-to-follow-up 9 patients (10 hips) could be included. Patient reported outcome measures included Oxford Hip Score (OHS) & Core Outcome Measure Index (COMI)). MRIs were evaluated using the Magnetic Resonance Observation of Cartilage Repair Tissue (MOCART) score. None of the patients underwent revision surgery except screw removals from the greater trochanter. Followup data indicate a satisfactory to good hip function at 5 years: PROMS improved from pre- to postop at 5 years: OHS from 38.1 to 43.4, COMI from to 1.8 and UCLA from 4 to 8.1 respectively. MOCART score was 67.5 postoperatively. Subgrouping showed slightly better results for acetabular defects (Ø 69.4) compared femoral defects (Ø 60). Based on the reported mid-term results, we consider AMIC as a valuable treatment option for larger chondral defects of the hip

Successful estimation of postoperative PROMs prior to a joint replacement surgery is important in deciding the best treatment option for a patient. However, estimation of the outcome is associated with substantial noise around individual prediction. Here, we test whether a classifier neural network can be used to simultaneously estimate postoperative PROMs and uncertainty better than current methods. We perform Oxford hip score (OHS) estimation using data collected by the NJR from 249,634 hip replacement surgeries performed from 2009 to 2018. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the various methods are compared to the standard deviation of outcome change distribution to measure the proportion of the total outcome variability that the model can capture. The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability of the change score being above a certain threshold was also plotted. The proposed classifier NN had a better or equivalent RMSE than all other currently used models. The threshold AUC shows similar results for all methods close to a change score of 20 but demonstrates better accuracy of the classifier neural network close to 0 change and greater than 30 change, showing that the full probability distribution performed by the classifier neural network resulted in a significant improvement in estimating the upper and lower quantiles of the change score probability distribution. Consequently, probabilistic estimation as performed by the classifier NN is the most adequate approach to this problem, since the final score has an important component of uncertainty. This study shows the importance of uncertainty estimation to accompany postoperative PROMs prediction and presents a clinically-meaningful method for personalised outcome that includes such uncertainty estimation

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine if the Oxford Knee and Hip Score (OKHS) can accurately predict when a primary knee or hip referral is deemed nonsurgical versus surgical by the surgeon during their first consultation, and to identify nonsurgical OKHS screening thresholds. Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed pre-consultation OKHS for all consecutive primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) consultations of a single surgeon over three years. The 1436 knees (1016 patients) and 478 hips (388 patients) included were categorized based on the surgeon’s decision into those offered surgery during the first consultation versus those not (nonsurgical). Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed. Results. Oxford Scores were better for the nonsurgical cohorts (p < 0.001) and correlated with the surgical decision (p < 0.001). ROC area under the curve values for knees (0.83, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.81 to 0.85) and hips (0.87, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.91) were excellent. A conservative and effective threshold for knees is Oxford Knee Score (OKS) > 32 points (sensitivity = 0.997, negative predictive value (NPV) = 0.992) and for hips is Oxford Hip Score (OHS) > 34 points (sensitivity = 0.997, NPV = 0.978). Severable potential lower OKHS thresholds were identified. Conclusion. Pre-consultation OKHS demonstrate good ability to predict when a primary TKA or THA referral will be deemed nonsurgical in a single surgeon’s practice. Multiple OKHS thresholds can effectively screen out nonsurgical referrals. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(6 Supple B):23–30