The widely used Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) estimates a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using age, sex, body mass index, and seven clinical risk factors, including prior history of fracture. Prior fracture is a binary variable in FRAX, although it is now clear that prior fractures affect future MOF risk differently depending on their recency and site. Risk of MOF is highest in the first two years following a fracture and then progressively decreases with time – this is defined as imminent risk. Therefore, the FRAX tool may underestimate true fracture risk and result in missed opportunities for earlier osteoporosis management in individuals with recent MOF. To address this, multipliers based on age, sex, and fracture type may be applied to baseline FRAX scores for patients with recent fractures, producing a more accurate prediction of both short- and long-term fracture risk. Adjusted FRAX estimates may enable earlier pharmacologic treatment and other risk reduction strategies. This study aimed to report the effect of multipliers on conventional FRAX scores in a clinical cohort of patients with recent non-hip fragility fractures. After obtaining Research Ethics Board approval, FRAX scores were calculated both before and after multiplier adjustment, for patients included in our outpatient Fracture Liaison Service who had experienced a non-hip fragility fracture between June 2020 and November 2021. Patients age 50 years or older, with recent (within 3 months) forearm (radius and/or ulna) or humerus fractures were included. Exclusion criteria consisted of patients under the age of 50 years or those with a hip fracture. Age- and sex-based FRAX multipliers for recent forearm and humerus fractures described by McCloskey et al. (2021) were used to adjust the conventional FRAX score. Low, intermediate and high-risk of MOF was defined as less than 10%, 10-20%, and greater than 20%, respectively. Data are reported as mean and standard deviation of the mean for continuous variables and as proportions for categorical variables. A total of 91 patients with an average age of 64 years (range = 50-97) were included. The majority of patients were female (91.0%), with 73.6% sustaining forearm fractures and 26.4% sustaining humerus fractures. In the forearm group, the average MOF risk pre- and post-multiplier was 16.0 and 18.8, respectively. Sixteen percent of patients (n = 11) in the forearm group moved from intermediate to high 10-year fracture risk after multiplier adjustment. Average FRAX scores before and after adjustment in the humerus group were 15.7 and 22.7, respectively, with 25% (n = 6) of patients moving from an intermediate risk to a high-risk score. This study demonstrates the clinically significant impact of multipliers on conventional FRAX scores in patients with recent non-hip fractures. Twenty-five percent of patients with humerus fractures and 16% of patients with forearm fractures moved from intermediate to high-risk of MOF after application of the multiplier. Consequently, patients who were previously ineligible for pharmacologic management, now met criteria. Multiplier-adjusted FRAX scores after a recent fracture may more accurately identify patients with imminent fracture risk, facilitating earlier risk reduction interventions

In conventional DXA (Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry) analysis, pixel bone mineral density (BMD) is often averaged at the femoral neck. Neck BMD constitutes the basis for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk assessment. This data averaging, however, limits our understanding of localised spatial BMD patterns that could potentially enhance fracture prediction. DXA region free analysis (RFA) is a validated toolkit for pixel-level BMD analysis. We have previously deployed this toolkit to develop a spatio-temporal atlas of BMD ageing in the femur. This study aims first to introduce bone age to reflect the overall bone structural evolution with ageing, and second to quantify fracture-specific patterns in the femur. The study dataset comprised 4933 femoral DXA scans from White British women aged 75 years or older. The total number of fractures was 684, of which 178 were reported at the hip within a follow-up period of five years. BMD maps were computed using the RFA toolkit. For each BMD map, bone age was defined as the age for which the L2-norm between the map and the median atlas at that age is minimised. Next, bone maps were normalised for the estimated bone age. A t-test followed by false discovery rate (FDR) analysis was applied to compare between fracture and non-fracture groups. Excluding the ageing effect revealed subtle localised patterns of loss in BMD oriented in the same direction as principal tensile curves. A new score called f-score was defined by averaging the normalised pixel BMD values over the region with FDR q-value less than 1e–6. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.731 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.689–0.761) and 0.736 (95% CI=0.694–0.769) for neck BMD and f-score. Combining bone age and f-score improved the AUC significantly by 3% (AUC=0.761, 95% CI=0.756–0.768) over the neck BMD alone (AUC=0.731, 95% CI=0.726–0.737). This technique shows promise in characterizing spatially-complex BMD changes, for which the conventional region-based technique is insensitive. DXA RFA shows promise to further improve fracture prediction using spatial BMD distribution

Orthopaedic surgeons frequently assess fragility fractures (FF), however osteoporosis (OP) is often managed by primary care physicians (PCP). Up to 48% of FF patients have had a previous fracture (Kanis et al., 2004). Discontinuity between fracture care and OP management is a missed opportunity to reduce repeat fractures. This studied aimed to evaluate current OP management in FF patients presenting to cast clinic. A single centre, prospective observational study where seven traumatologists screened for FF in cast clinic. FF was defined as a hip, distal radius (DR), proximal humerus (PH), or ankle fracture due to a ground level fall. Patients completed a self-administered questionnaire for demographics, fracture type and treatment, medical and fracture history, and previous OP care. The primary outcome was number of FF patients who received OP investigation and/or treatment. Secondary outcomes included Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), repeat fracture rate, and anti-resorptive related fractures. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis. Between November 17, 2014 and October 13, 2015, a total of 1,677 patients attended cast clinic for an initial assessment. FF were identified in 120 patients (7.2%). The FF cohort had a mean age of 65.3 (± 14.3) years, mean BMI of 26.1 (± 5.3), and was comprised of 83.3% females. Fracture distribution was 69 (57.5%) DR, 23 (19%) ankle, 20 (16.5%) PH, and seven (5.8%) hip fractures, with 24 of the FF (19.8%) treated operatively. Thirteen (10.8%) were current smokers and 40 (33.3%) formerly smoked. A history of steroid use was present in 13 patients (10.8%). Ninety (n = 117; 76.9%) of patients ambulated independently. Twenty-two patients (18.3%) reported prior diagnosis of OP, most often by a PCP (n = 19; 73.7%) over 5 years previously. Calcium (n = 59; 49.2%) and Vitamin D (n = 70; 58.3%) were common and 26 patients (21.5%) had a prior anti-resorptive therapy, with Alendronate (n = 9) being most common. One patient had an anti-resorptive-related fracture. Raloxifene was used in ten patients. Forty-seven patients (39.2%) had a prior fracture at a mean age of 61.3 (± 11.9) years, with DR and PH fractures being most common. Eleven patients had two or more prior fractures. A family history of OP was found in 34 patients (28.1%). Mean FRAX score was 20.8% (± 10.8%) 10-year major fracture risk and 5.9% (± 6.6%) 10-year hip fracture risk (n = 30 bone densiometry within one-year). Of the 26 patients with a Moderate (10–20%) or High (> 20%) 10-year major fracture risk, only eight (30.8%) reported a diagnosis of OP and only three (11.5%) had seen an OP specialist. Cast clinics provide an opportunity for OP screening, initiation of treatment, and patient education. This cohort demonstrated a high rate of repeat fractures and poor patient reporting of prior OP diagnosis. This study likely underestimated FF and calls for resource allocation for quantifying true burden of disease and outpatient fracture liaison service