The COVID-19 pandemic presented a significant impact on orthopaedic surgical operating. This multi-centre study aimed to ascertain what factors contributed to delays to theatre in patients with shoulder and elbow trauma. A retrospective cohort study of 621 upper limb (shoulder and elbow) trauma patients between 16/03/2020 and 16/09/2021 (18-months) was extracted from trauma lists in NHS Tayside, Highland and Grampian and Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS). Median patient age =51 years (range 2-98), 298 (48%) were male and 323 (52%) female. The commonest operation was olecranon open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) 106/621 cases (17.1%), followed by distal humerus ORIF − 63/621 (10.1%). Median time to surgery was 2 days (range 0-263). 281/621 (45.2%) of patients underwent surgical intervention within 0-1 days and 555/621 patients (89.9%) had an operation within 14 days of sustaining their injury. 66/621 (10.6%) patients waited >14 days for surgery. There were 325/621 (52.3%) patients with documented evidence of delay to surgery; of these 55.6% (181/325) were due to amendable causes. 66/325 (20.3%) of these patients suffered complications; the most common being post-operative stiffness in 48.6% of cases (n=32/66). To our knowledge, this is the first study to specifically explore effect of COVID-19 pandemic on upper limb trauma patients. We suggest delays to theatre may have contributed to higher rates of post-operative stiffness and require more physiotherapy during the rehabilitation phase. In future pandemic planning, we propose dedicated upper-limb trauma lists to prevent delays to theatre and optimise patients’ post-operative outcomes

Aims. This study sought to determine the proportion of older adults with hip fractures captured by a multicentre prospective cohort, the World Hip Trauma Evaluation (WHiTE), whether there was evidence of selection bias during WHiTE recruitment, and the extent to which the WHiTE cohort is representative of the broader population of older adults with hip fractures. Patients and Methods. The characteristics of patients recruited into the WHiTE cohort study were compared with those treated at WHiTE hospitals during the same timeframe and submitted to the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD). Results. Patients recruited to WHiTE were more likely to be admitted from their own home (83.5% vs 80.2%; p < 0.001) and to have a higher median Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMTS) (9 (interquartile range (IQR) 6 to 10) vs 9 (IQR 5 to 10); p < 0.001) than those who were not recruited. In terms of WHiTE cohort generalizability, participating hospitals included a greater proportion of Major Trauma Centres (47.8% vs 7.8%) and large hospitals (997 (IQR 873 to 1290) vs 707 (459 to 903) beds) with high-volume Emergency Departments (median annual attendances of 43 981 (IQR 37 147 to 54 385) vs 35 964 (IQR 26 229 to 50 551)). However, there were few differences in baseline characteristics between patients in the WHiTE cohort and those recorded in the NHFD. Conclusion. There is evidence of a weak selection bias towards recruiting fitter patients within the WHiTE cohort, which will help to put into context the findings of future studies. We conclude that the patients within the WHiTE cohort are representative of the national population of older adults with hip fractures throughout England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:708–714

Tranexamic Acid (TXA) is widely used to decrease bleeding by its antifibrinolytic mechanism. Its use is widespread within orthopaedic surgery, with level one evidence for its efficacy in total hip and knee replacement surgery; significantly reducing transfusion rates without increased thromboembolic disease. There is limited evidence for its use during hip fracture surgery, and we therefore sought to investigate its effects with a prospective cohort study. We recorded intra-operative blood loss, pre and post-operative haemoglobin and creatinine levels, post-operative complications and mortality in all hip fracture patients over a six month period. During this time, we introduced one gram of TXA into our standardised hip fracture theatre checklist. It was subsequently given to all patients unless contra-indicated. A total of 99 patients were included. 90-day mortality in the control group was 16%, there was no mortality in the TXA group (p<0.05). 14 patients required a transfusion in the control group and 3 in the TXA group (19% vs 11% transfusion rate, 0.36 units RCC vs 0.22 per patient respectively) Mean blood loss was 338 vs 235mls, Haemoglobin drop 23 vs 18g/dl control and TXA groups respectively. We have demonstrated a significantly lower mortality rate with TXA. We have also shown lower rates of transfusion, blood loss and recorded haemoglobin drop with the use of TXA. We intend to continue this study to demonstrate this significantly, and fully clarify the safety profile of TXA in this frail cohort of patients

Fractures of the proximal femur are one of the greatest challenges facing the medical community, constituting a heavy socioeconomic burden worldwide. The National Hip Fracture Audit currently provides a framework for service evaluation. This evaluation is based upon the assessment of process rather than assessment of patient-centred outcome and therefore it fails to provide meaningful data regarding the clinical effectiveness of treatments. This study aims to capture data from the cohort of patients who present with a fracture of the proximal femur at a single United Kingdom Major Trauma Centre. Patient-centred outcomes will be recorded and provide a baseline cohort within which to test the clinical effectiveness of experimental interventions.

This study aims to determine the lifetime risk of revision surgery after primary knee arthroplasty (KA).

The Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset was utilised to identify all patients undergoing primary KA during the period 1998–2019. The cumulative incidence function for revision and death was calculated and adjusted analyses utilised cause-specific Cox regression modelling to determine the influence of patient-factors. The lifetime risk was calculated for patients aged between 45–99 years using multiple decrement lifetable methodology.

The lifetime risk of revision ranged between 32.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 22.62–47.31) for patients aged 45–49 years and 0.63% (95%CI 0.1–4.5) for patients aged over 90 years. Adjusted analyses demonstrated the converse effect of age on revision (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.5, 95%CI 0.5–0.6) and death (HR 3.5, 95%CI 3.4–3.7). Male sex was associated with increased risks of revision (HR 1.1, 95%CI 1.1–1.2) and death (HR 1.4, 95%CI 1.3–1.4). Patients with inflammatory arthropathy had a higher risk of death (HR 1.7, 95%CI 1.7–1.8), but were less likely to be revised (HR 0.85, 95%CI 0.74–0.98) than those treated for osteoarthritis. Patients with greater number of comorbidities and greater levels of socio-economic deprivation were at increased risk of death, but neither increased the risk of revision.

The lifetime risk of revision knee arthroplasty varies depending on patient sex, age at surgery and underlying diagnosis. Patients aged between 45 and 49 years have a one in three probability of revision surgery within their lifetime. Conversely, patients aged 90 years or over were very unlikely to experience revision.

Introduction. Although a previous hip fracture is one of the strongest predictors for the next one this risk might be modified by other factors. The goal of this analysis was to compute a simple algorithm to assess the individual risk for a contralateral hip fracture. Materials and methods. The analysis is based on a nationwide population-based Danish cohort study of 84,360 patients experiencing a hip fracture followed-up for 5 years. We a priori defined a set of 17 candidate parameters potentially associated with early contralateral hip fracture. We bootstrapped a stepwise augmentation procedure 10 times and selected five parameters that entered the model in all bootstrapping cycles and computed the individual risk for a contralateral fracture within two, three, and five years after the first incidence. Results. 12,349 patients (14.6%) experienced a contralateral hip fracture within five years. The strength of association were: female gender (Odds Ratio 1.58), alcohol abuse 1.57, living in a single household 1.10, no prescription of bisphosphonates 1.64, and comorbidity and Charlson Score values less than 2 2.20, between 3 and 4 1.76, 5 and more, 1.46 against no comorbidity. The probability of experiencing a second fracture ranged from 3.4% to 25.9%. Discussion. Once this instrument is validated in other cohorts it provides a rational basis for prophylactic augmentation or more aggressive pharmaceutical treatment

The treatment of massive rotator cuff tears remains controversial. There is lack of studies comparing patient-reported outcomes (PROM) of arthroscopic massive rotator cuff repairs (RCR) against large, medium and small RCRs. Our study aims to report the PROM for arthroscopic massive RCR versus non-massive RCR.

Patients undergoing an arthroscopic RCR under a single surgeon over a 5-year period were included. Demographic data were recorded. Pre-operative Quick-DASH and Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) were prospectively collected pre-operatively and at final review (mean of 18 months post-operatively). The scores were compared to a matched cohort of patients who had large, medium or small RCRs. A post-hoc power analysis confirmed 98% power was achieved.

82 patients were included in the study. 42 (51%) patients underwent massive RCR. The mean age of patients undergoing massive RCR was 59.7 and 55% (n=23) were female. 21% of massive RCRs had biceps augmentation. Quick-DASH improved significantly from a mean of 46.1 pre-operatively to 15.6 at final follow-up for massive RCRs (p<0.001). OSS improved significantly from a mean of 26.9 pre-operatively to 41.4 at final follow up for massive RCRs (p<0.001). There was no significant difference in the final Quick-DASH and OSS scores for massive and non-massive RCRs (p=0.35 and p=0.45 respectively). No revision surgery was required within the minimum one year follow up timescale.

Arthroscopic massive rotator cuff repairs have no functional difference to non-massive rotator cuff repairs in the short term follow up period and should be considered in appropriate patient groups.

Introduction. Several short femoral stems have been introduced in primary total hip arthroplasty, supposedly in order to save proximal bone stock. We intended to analyse primary stability, changes in periprosthetic bone mineral density (BMD), and clinical outcome after insertion of the uncemented collum femoris preserving (CFP)-femoral device. Methods. A prospective cohort study on 30 patients scheduled for receiving the CFP-stem combined with an uncemented cup was carried out. Stem migration was analysed by radiostereometry (RSA). Preoperative total hip BMD and postoperative periprosthetic BMD in Gruen zones 1–7 was investigated by DXA, and the Harris hips score (HHS) was determined. The patients were followed up to 12 months. Results. 2 patients were intraoperatively excluded because their proximal femur was found to be unsuitable for insertion of the studied implant, 1 patient was later revised due to a deep infection. This left 27 patients for final analysis. RSA showed that only very little migration of the implant occurred, with the largest amplitude found in rotation around the y-axis (1.8°, SD 0.6, after 12 mths), representing minimal stem retroversion. DXA after 12 mths demonstrated substantial BMD loss in Gruen zones 7 (−30.8%), 6 (−19.1%) and 2 (−13.3%, p-values for all described changes <0.001 when comparing with baseline BMD determined immediately postoperatively). There was a moderate correlation of low preoperative total hip BMD with a higher amount of bone loss in Gruen zones 2 (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.6, p = 0.001), 6 (r = 0.5, p = 0.005) and 7 (r = 0.6, p = 0.003). In contrast, we found no correlation of periprosthetic bone loss in any of the Gruen zones 1–7 with logarithmically transformed maximal total point translation (MTPT) of the stem (p > 0.05 for all regions), neither after 3 nor after 12 mths. The mean HHS increased from 49 (SD 15) preoperatively to 99 (SD 2) after 12 mths. Interpretation. Based on these short-term data, we conclude that i) the studied implant seems to be stable within the first year, ii) substantial loss in periprosthetic BMD - with a predominance in the calcar region - occurs, iii) low preoperative total hip BMD predisposes towards greater loss of periprosthetic BMD after 12 months, iv) postoperative loss in periprosthetic BMD does not correlate with increased stem migration. Clinical results are excellent so far. Continuing follow-up will reveal whether this novel stem remains stable in the medium and long term, and whether the loss in BMD in the regions mentioned above can be recovered with time or whether it continues

To evaluate if clinical recovery following midshaft clavicle fracture is associated with nonunion and determine if this has superior predictive value compared to estimation at time of injury.

A prospective study of all patients (≥16 years) who sustained a displaced midshaft clavicle fracture was performed. We assessed patient demographics, injury factors, functional scores and radiographic predictors with a standardized protocol at six-weeks. Conditional-stepwise regression was used to assess which factors independently predicted nonunion at six-months post-injury determined by CT. The nonunion predictor six-week model (NUP6) was compared against a previously validated model based on factors available at time of injury (NUP0-smoking, comminution and fracture displacement).

200 patients completed follow-up at six months. The nonunion rate was 14% (27/200). Of the functional scores, the QuickDASH had the highest accuracy on receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with a 39.8 threshold, above which was associated with nonunion (Area Under Curve (AUC) 76.8%, p<0.001).

On regression modelling QuickDASH ≥40 (p=0.001), no callus on radiograph (p=0.004) and fracture movement on examination (p=0.001) were significant predictors of nonunion. If none were present the predicted nonunion risk was 3%, found in 40% of the cohort (n=80/200). Conversely if two or more were present, found in 23.5% of the cohort, the predicted nonunion risk was 60%.

The NUP6 model appeared to have superior accuracy when compared to the NUP0 model on ROC curve analysis (AUC 87.3% vs 64.8% respectively).

Delayed assessment at six-weeks following displaced clavicle fracture enables a more accurate prediction of fracture healing.

BACKGROUND

Most closed tibial fractures in children can be treated conservatively. On the occasions that surgical intervention is required, there are various options available to stabilise the fracture. We would like to present our experience of using monolateral external fixators in the management of closed tibial fractures.

This study reports on the natural history of acetabular fracture dislocations. We retrospectively reviewed patients who sustained an acetabular fracture associated with a posterior hip dislocation from a prospective database. Patient characteristics, complications and the requirement for further surgery were recorded. Patient outcomes were measured using the Oxford Hip score and Short Form SF-12 health survey.

A total of 99 patients were treated over a 24 year period. The mean age was 41 years. Open reduction and internal fixation was performed in the majority (n=87), 10 were managed conservatively following closed reduction and two underwent primary total hip replacement (THR). At a median follow up of 12.4 years (range 4–24 years) patient outcomes were available for 53 patients. 12 patients had died. 19 patients went onto have a THR as a secondary procedure, of which 11 had confirmed avascular necrosis. Median time to THR was 2 years (range 1–17 years). The mean Oxford hip score was 35 (range 2–48), SF-12 physical component score (PCS) was 40 and a third of the patients used a walking aid. In THR group the mean Oxford score was 32 (range 3–46), SF-12 PCS was 39 and almost all required a walking aid.

This is the first study to present the long term outcomes following an acetabular fracture dislocation. Our study suggests there is considerable disability in this group of patients and the requirement for subsequent THR has inferior patient reported outcomes.

Introduction

Total knee arthroplasty is an established and successful operation. In up to 10% of patients who undergo total knee arthroplasty continue to complain of pain [1]. Recently computerised tomography (CT) has been used to assess the rotational profile of both the tibial and femoral components in painful total knee arthroplasty.

Background

Thromboembolic disease is a common complication of total hip replacement (THR). The administration of postoperative anticoagulants is therefore highly recommended. The purpose of this study was to compare rivaroxaban with fondaparinux with regards to their safety and effectiveness for the prevention of venous thromboembolic events (VTE) after THR.

Aims. There is a lack of published evidence relating to the rate of nonunion seen in occult scaphoid fractures, diagnosed only after MRI. This study reports the rate of delayed union and nonunion in a cohort of patients with MRI-detected acute scaphoid fractures. Methods. This multicentre cohort study at eight centres in the UK included all patients with an acute scaphoid fracture diagnosed on MRI having presented acutely following wrist trauma with normal radiographs. Data were gathered retrospectively for a minimum of 12 months at each centre. The primary outcome measures were the rate of acute surgery, delayed union, and nonunion. Results. A total of 1,989 patients underwent acute MRI for a suspected scaphoid fracture during the study period, of which 256 patients (12.9%) were diagnosed with a previously occult scaphoid fracture. Of the patients with scaphoid fractures, six underwent early surgical fixation (2.3%) and there was a total of 16 cases of delayed or nonunion (6.3%) in the remaining 250 patients treated with cast immobilization. Of the nine nonunions (3.5%), seven underwent surgery (2.7%), one opted for non-surgical treatment, and one failed to attend follow-up. Of the seven delayed unions (2.7%), one (0.4%) was treated with surgery at two months, one (0.4%) did not attend further follow-up, and the remaining five fractures (1.9%) healed after further cast immobilization. All fractures treated with surgery had united at follow-up. There was one complication of surgery (prominent screw requiring removal). Conclusion. MRI-detected scaphoid fractures are not universally benign, with delayed or nonunion of scaphoid fractures diagnosed only after MRI seen in over 6% despite appropriate initial immobilization, with most of these patients with nonunion requiring surgery to achieve union. This study adds weight to the evidence base supporting the use of early MRI for these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):387–393

Aims. Factors associated with high mortality rates in geriatric hip fracture patients are frequently unmodifiable. Time to surgery, however, might be a modifiable factor of interest to optimize clinical outcomes after hip fracture surgery. This study aims to determine the influence of postponement of surgery due to non-medical reasons on clinical outcomes in acute hip fracture surgery. Methods. This observational cohort study enrolled consecutively admitted patients with a proximal femoral fracture, for which surgery was performed between 1 January 2018 and 11 January 2021 in two level II trauma teaching hospitals. Patients with medical indications to postpone surgery were excluded. A total of 1,803 patients were included, of whom 1,428 had surgery < 24 hours and 375 had surgery ≥ 24 hours after admission. Results. Prolonged total length of stay was found when surgery was performed ≥ 24 hours (median 6 days (interquartile range (IQR) 4 to 9) vs 7 days (IQR 5 to 10); p = 0.001) after admission. No differences in postoperative length of hospital stay nor in 30-day mortality rates were found. In subgroup analysis for time frames of 12 hours each, pressure sores and urinary tract infections were diagnosed more frequently when time to surgery increased. Conclusion. Longer time to surgery due to non-medical reasons was associated with a higher incidence of postoperative pressure sores and urinary tract infections when time to surgery was more than 48 hours after admission. No association was found between time to surgery and 30-day mortality rates or postoperative length of hospital stay. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(12):1369–1378

Aims. In the Netherlands, general practitioners (GPs) can request radiographs. After a radiologically diagnosed fracture, patients are immediately referred to the emergency department (ED). Since 2020, the Máxima Medical Centre has implemented a new care pathway for minor trauma patients, referring them immediately to the traumatology outpatient clinic (OC) instead of the ED. We investigated whether this altered care pathway leads to a reduction in healthcare consumption and concomitant costs. Methods. In this retrospective cohort study, patients were included if a radiologist diagnosed a fracture on a radiograph requested by the GP from August to October 2019 (control group) or August to October 2020 (research group), on weekdays between 8.30 am and 4.00 pm. The study compared various outcomes between groups, including the length of the initial hospital visit, frequency of hospital visits and medical procedures, extent of imaging, and healthcare expenses. Results. A total of 634 patients were included. The results show a median reduction of 25 minutes in duration of initial hospital visits, one fewer hospital visit, overall fewer medical procedures, and a decrease in healthcare costs of €303.40 per patient in the research group compared to the control group. No difference was found in the amount of imaging. Conclusion. The implementation of the new care pathway has resulted in a substantial reduction in healthcare use and costs. Moreover, the pathway provides advantages for patients and helps prevent crowding at the ED. Hence, we recommend immediately referring all minor trauma patients to the traumatology OC instead of the ED. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(10):728–734

Aims. The use of multimodal non-opioid analgesia in hip fractures, specifically acetaminophen combined with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), has been increasing. However, the effectiveness and safety of this approach remain unclear. This study aimed to compare postoperative outcomes among patients with hip fractures who preoperatively received either acetaminophen combined with NSAIDs, NSAIDs alone, or acetaminophen alone. Methods. This nationwide retrospective cohort study used data from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. We included patients aged ≥ 18 years who underwent surgery for hip fractures and received acetaminophen combined with NSAIDs (combination group), NSAIDs alone (NSAIDs group), or acetaminophen alone (acetaminophen group) preoperatively, between April 2010 and March 2022. Primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and complications. Secondary outcomes were opioid use postoperatively; readmission within 90 days, one year, and two years; and total hospitalization costs. We used propensity score overlap weighting models, with the acetaminophen group as the reference group. Results. We identified 93,018 eligible patients, including 13,068 in the combination group, 29,203 in the NSAIDs group, and 50,474 in the acetaminophen group. Propensity score overlap weighting successfully balanced patient characteristics among the three groups, with no significant difference in in-hospital mortality rates observed among the groups (combination group risk difference 0.0% (95% CI -0.5 to 0.4%); NSAIDs group risk difference -0.2% (95% CI -0.5 to 0.2%)). However, the combination group exhibited a significantly lower risk of in-hospital complications than the acetaminophen group (risk difference -1.9% (95% CI -3.2 to -0.6%)) as well as a significantly lower risk of deep vein thrombosis (risk difference -1.4% (95% CI -2.2 to -0.7%)). Furthermore, total hospitalization costs were higher in the NSAIDs group than in the acetaminophen group (difference USD $438 (95% CI 249 to 630); p < 0.001). No significant differences in other secondary outcomes were observed among the three groups. Conclusion. The combination of acetaminophen with NSAIDs appears to be safe and advantageous in terms of reducing in-hospital complications. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):849–857

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the early postoperative mortality and morbidity in older patients with a fracture of the femoral neck, between those who underwent total hip arthroplasty (THA) and those who underwent hemiarthroplasty. Methods. This nationwide, retrospective cohort study used data from the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. We included older patients (aged ≥ 60 years) who underwent THA or hemiarthroplasty after a femoral neck fracture, between July 2010 and March 2022. A total of 165,123 patients were included. The THA group was younger (mean age 72.6 (SD 8.0) vs 80.7 years (SD 8.1)) and had fewer comorbidities than the hemiarthroplasty group. Patients with dementia or malignancy were excluded because they seldom undergo THA. The primary outcome measures were mortality and complications while in hospital, and secondary outcomes were readmission and reoperation within one and two years after discharge, and the costs of hospitalization. We conducted an instrumental variable analysis (IVA) using differential distance as a variable. Results. The IVA analysis showed that the THA group had a significantly higher rate of complications while in hospital (risk difference 6.3% (95% CI 2.0 to 10.6); p = 0.004) than the hemiarthroplasty group, but there was no significant difference in the rate of mortality while in hospital (risk difference 0.3% (95% CI -1.7 to 2.2); p = 0.774). There was no significant difference in the rate of readmission (within one year: risk difference 1.3% (95% CI -1.9 to 4.5); p = 0.443; within two years: risk difference 0.1% (95% CI -3.2 to 3.4); p = 0.950) and reoperation (within one year: risk difference 0.3% (95% CI -0.6 to 1.1); p = 0.557; within two years: risk difference 0.1% (95% CI -0.4 to 0.7); p = 0.632) after discharge. The costs of hospitalization were significantly higher in the THA group than in the hemiarthroplasty group (difference $2,634 (95% CI $2,496 to $2,772); p < 0.001). Conclusion. Among older patients undergoing surgery for a femoral neck fracture, the risk of early complications was higher after THA than after hemiarthroplasty. Our findings should aid in clinical decision-making in these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(9):986–993

Aims. The aim of this study was to perform the first population-based description of the epidemiological and health economic burden of fracture-related infection (FRI). Methods. This is a retrospective cohort study of operatively managed orthopaedic trauma patients from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016, performed in Queensland, Australia. Record linkage was used to develop a person-centric, population-based dataset incorporating routinely collected administrative, clinical, and health economic information. The FRI group consisted of patients with International Classification of Disease 10th Revision diagnosis codes for deep infection associated with an implanted device within two years following surgery, while all others were deemed not infected. Demographic and clinical variables, as well as healthcare utilization costs, were compared. Results. There were 111,402 patients operatively managed for orthopaedic trauma, with 2,775 of these (2.5%) complicated by FRI. The development of FRI had a statistically significant association with older age, male sex, residing in rural/remote areas, Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander background, lower socioeconomic status, road traffic accident, work-related injuries, open fractures, anatomical region (lower limb, spine, pelvis), high injury severity, requiring soft-tissue coverage, and medical comorbidities (univariate analysis). Patients with FRI had an eight-times longer median inpatient length of stay (24 days vs 3 days), and a 2.8-times higher mean estimated inpatient hospitalization cost (AU$56,565 vs AU$19,773) compared with uninfected patients. The total estimated inpatient cost of the FRI cohort to the healthcare system was AU$156.9 million over the ten-year period. Conclusion. The results of this study advocate for improvements in trauma care and infection management, address social determinants of health, and highlight the upside potential to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):77–85

Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the prediction. In the second analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.06 and AUC was 0.67. Plate length was the most important variable in the prediction. Conclusion. The model including patient- and injury-related factors had moderate fit and predictive ability in the prediction of distal femur fracture nonunion leading to secondary surgery. BMI was the most important variable in prediction of nonunion. Surgeon-controlled factors had a minor role in prediction of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):584–593