The radiological analysis was based on 193 AP and lateral x-rays. We measured: 1) the distance separating the superior pole of the cyst from the suprajacent growth cartilage, 2) the largest cyst diameter, 3) the greatest cyst height, 4) the thinnest cortical width facing the cyst, 5) the cyst surface area calculated exactly using surface area software and expressed as a a ratio of shaft diameter (S/d2, Kaelin index). These different parameters were compared for cysts associated with fracture or not.
Comparing the two cohorts of patients demonstrated that the following differences were significant (Student’s t test): 1) cyst width (p=0.0038): below 16 mm none of the cysts fractured. For wider cysts, there was no difference between the fracture and non-fracture cysts. 2) cortical thickness (p=0.0002); cortical thickness greater than 5 mm protected against fracture. If the cortical measured less than 3 mm, the risk of fracture was greater than 50%. 3) Kaelin index: (p<
0.0001) was directly correlated with fracture risk but no cutoff could be identified. For an 80 – 100% risk of fracture, the cyst must have the following characteristics: width >
30 mm, height >
75 mm, cortical thickness <
2.4 mm, Kaelin index >
5. For a 50% risk of fracture, the cyst must have the following characteristics: width >
24 mm, height >
55 mm, cortical thickness <
3 mm, Kaelin index >
3.