Purpose: There is very little evidence to guide treatment of patients with spinal surgical site infection (SSI) who require irrigation and debridement (I& D) with respect to need for single or multiple I& D’s. The purpose of this study is to build a predictive model which stratifies patients with spinal SSI to determine which patients will go on to need single versus multiple I& D.

Method: A consecutive series of 128 patients from a tertiary spine center (collected from 1999–2005) who required I& D for spinal SSI, were studied based on data from a prospectively collected outcomes database. Over 30 variables were identified by extensive literature review as possible risk factors for SSI, and tested as possible predictors of risk for multiple I& D. Logistic regression was conducted to assess each variable’s predictability by a “bootstrap” statistical method. Logistic regression was applied using outcome of I& D – single or multiple as the “response”.

Results: 24/128 patients required multiple I& D. Primary spine diagnosis was approximately represented by ¼ trauma, ¼ deformity, ¼ degenerative and ¼ oncology/inflammatory/other. Six predictors: spine location, medical comorbidities, microbiology of the SSI, presence of distant site infection (ie. UTI or bacteremia), presence of instrumentation and bone graft type, proved to be the most reliable predictors of need for multiple I& D. Internal validation of the predictive model yielded area under the curve (AUC) of .84

Conclusion: Infection factors played an important role in need for multiple I& D. Patients with +MRSA culture or those with distant site infection such as bacteremia with or without UTI or pneumonia, were strong predictors of need for multiple I& D. Presence of instrumentation, location of surgery in the posterior lumbar spine and use of non-autograft bone predicted multiple I& D. Diabetes also proved to be the most significant medical comorbidity for multiple I& D.