Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Precision health aims to develop personalised and proactive strategies for predicting, preventing, and treating complex diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). Due to OA heterogeneity, which makes developing effective treatments challenging, identifying patients at risk for accelerated disease progression is essential for efficient clinical trial design and new treatment target discovery and development. To create a reliable and interpretable precision health tool that predicts rapid knee OA progression over a 2-year period from baseline patient characteristics using an advanced automated machine learning (autoML) framework, “Autoprognosis 2.0”. All available 2-year follow-up periods of 600 patients from the FNIH OA Biomarker Consortium were analysed using “Autoprognosis 2.0” in two separate approaches, with distinct definitions of clinical outcomes: multi-class predictions (categorising disease progression into pain and/or radiographic progression) and binary predictions. Models were developed using a training set of 1352 instances and all available variables (including clinical, X-ray, MRI, and biochemical features), and validated through both stratified 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out validation on a testing set of 339 instances. Model performance was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics. Interpretability analyses were carried out to identify important predictors of progression. Our final models yielded higher accuracy scores for multi-class predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.858, 95% CI: 0.856-0.860) compared to binary predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.717, 95% CI: 0.712-0.722). Important predictors of rapid disease progression included WOMAC scores and MRI features. Additionally, accurate ML models were developed for predicting OA progression in a subgroup of patients aged 65 or younger. This study presents a reliable and interpretable precision health tool for predicting rapid knee OA progression. Our models provide accurate predictions and, importantly, allow specific predictors of rapid disease progression to be identified. Furthermore, the transparency and explainability of our methods may facilitate their acceptance by clinicians and patients, enabling effective translation to clinical practice

Abstract. Introduction. Precision health aims to develop personalised and proactive strategies for predicting, preventing, and treating complex diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA), a degenerative joint disease affecting over 300 million people worldwide. Due to OA heterogeneity, which makes developing effective treatments challenging, identifying patients at risk for accelerated disease progression is essential for efficient clinical trial design and new treatment target discovery and development. Objectives. This study aims to create a trustworthy and interpretable precision health tool that predicts rapid knee OA progression based on baseline patient characteristics using an advanced automated machine learning (autoML) framework, “Autoprognosis 2.0”. Methods. All available 2-year follow-up periods of 600 patients from the FNIH OA Biomarker Consortium were analysed using “Autoprognosis 2.0” in two separate approaches, with distinct definitions of clinical outcomes: multi-class predictions (categorising patients into non-progressors, pain-only progressors, radiographic-only progressors, and both pain and radiographic progressors) and binary predictions (categorising patients into non-progressors and progressors). Models were developed using a training set of 1352 instances and all available variables (including clinical, X-ray, MRI, and biochemical features), and validated through both stratified 10-fold cross-validation and hold-out validation on a testing set of 339 instances. Model performance was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics, such as AUC-ROC, AUC-PRC, F1-score, precision, and recall. Additionally, interpretability analyses were carried out to identify important predictors of rapid disease progression. Results. Our final models yielded high accuracy scores for both multi-class predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.858, 95% CI: 0.856–0.860; AUC-PRC: 0.675, 95% CI: 0.671–0.679; F1-score: 0.560, 95% CI: 0.554–0.566) and binary predictions (AUC-ROC: 0.717, 95% CI: 0.712–0.722; AUC-PRC: 0.620, 95% CI: 0.616–0.624; F1-score: 0.676, 95% CI: 0.673–0679). Important predictors of rapid disease progression included the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores and MRI features. Our models were further successfully validated using a hold-out dataset, which was previously omitted from model development and training (AUC-ROC: 0.877 for multi-class predictions; AUC-ROC: 0.746 for binary predictions). Additionally, accurate ML models were developed for predicting OA progression in a subgroup of patients aged 65 or younger (AUC-ROC: 0.862, 95% CI: 0.861–0.863 for multi-class predictions; AUC-ROC: 0.736, 95% CI: 0.734–0.738 for binary predictions). Conclusions. This study presents a reliable and interpretable precision health tool for predicting rapid knee OA progression using “Autoprognosis 2.0”. Our models provide accurate predictions and offer insights into important predictors of rapid disease progression. Furthermore, the transparency and interpretability of our methods may facilitate their acceptance by clinicians and patients, enabling effective utilisation in clinical practice. Future work should focus on refining these models by increasing the sample size, integrating additional features, and using independent datasets for external validation. Declaration of Interest. (b) declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported:I declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research project

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aim. The primary endpoint of this study is to characterize the progression of bone defects at the femoral and tibial side in patients who sustained PJI of the knee that underwent two-stage revision with spacer implantation. In addition, we want to analyze the differences between functional moulded and hand-made spacers. Methods. A retrospective analysis of patients that underwent two-stage revision due to PJI of the knee between January 2014 and December 2021 at our institution. Diagnosis of infection was based on the criteria of the Muscoloskeletal Infection Society. The bone defect evaluation was performed intraoperatively based on the AORI classification. The basal evaluation was performed at the time the resection arthroplasty and spacer implantation surgery. The final evaluation was performed at the second-stage surgery, at the time of spacer removal and revision implant positioning. The differences between groups were characterized by using T-test student for continuous variables, and by using chi-square for categorical variables. A p-value < 0.05 was defined as significant. Results. Complete data of 37 two-stage TKAs revision were included in the study. An articulating moulded functional spacer was used in 14 (35.9%) cases, while a hand-made spacer was used in 23 (58.9%) cases. The average length of interval period (excluding the time for patients that retained the spacer) was 146.6 days. A bone defects progression based on the AORI classification was documented in 24 cases at the femoral side (61.6%), a bone defect progression was documented in 17 cases at the tibial side (43.6%), and a bone defect at both sides was documented in 13 cases (33.3%). A statistically significant greater bone defect progression at the tibial side was observed when hand-made spacers were used. A complication during the interval period was reported in five cases (12.8%) and postoperative complication was reported in 9 cases (23.1%). Conclusions. When comparing patients in which a functional articulating spacer was used, with patients in which static spacer was used, we reported a statistically significant reduced bone defect progression during the interval period at the femoral side only when moulded spacers were used. We observed a higher incidence of bone defect progression also at the tibial and both sides when hand-made spacers were used. This is the first study that documented the bone defect progression during two-stage revision of the knee, the results observed in this study are very encouraging

Aims. cAMP response element binding protein (CREB1) is involved in the progression of osteoarthritis (OA). However, available findings about the role of CREB1 in OA are inconsistent. 666-15 is a potent and selective CREB1 inhibitor, but its role in OA is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the precise role of CREB1 in OA, and whether 666-15 exerts an anti-OA effect. Methods. CREB1 activity and expression of a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs 4 (ADAMTS4) in cells and tissues were measured by immunoblotting and immunohistochemical (IHC) staining. The effect of 666-15 on chondrocyte viability and apoptosis was examined by cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) assay, JC-10, and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end-labelling (TUNEL) staining. The effect of 666-15 on the microstructure of subchondral bone, and the synthesis and catabolism of cartilage, in anterior cruciate ligament transection mice were detected by micro-CT, safranin O and fast green (S/F), immunohistochemical staining, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results. CREB1 was hyperactive in osteoarthritic articular cartilage, interleukin (IL)-1β-treated cartilage explants, and IL-1β- or carbonyl cyanide 3-chlorophenylhydrazone (CCCP)-treated chondrocytes. 666-15 enhanced cell viability of OA-like chondrocytes and alleviated IL-1β- or CCCP-induced chondrocyte injury through inhibition of mitochondrial dysfunction-associated apoptosis. Moreover, inhibition of CREB1 by 666-15 suppressed expression of ADAMTS4. Additionally, 666-15 alleviated joint degeneration in an ACLT mouse model. Conclusion. Hyperactive CREB1 played a critical role in OA development, and 666-15 exerted anti-IL-1β or anti-CCCP effects in vitro as well as joint-protective effects in vivo. 666-15 may therefore be used as a promising anti-OA drug. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(1):4–18

Aims. The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature for evidence of the effect of a high-fat diet (HFD) on the onset or progression of osteoarthritis (OA) in mice. Methods. A literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus to find all studies on mice investigating the effects of HFD or Western-type diet on OA when compared with a control diet (CD). The primary outcome was the determination of cartilage loss and alteration. Secondary outcomes regarding local and systemic levels of proteins involved in inflammatory processes or cartilage metabolism were also examined when reported. Results. In total, 14 publications met our inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Our meta-analysis showed that, when measured by the modified Mankin Histological-Histochemical Grading System, there was a significantly higher rate of OA in mice fed a HFD than in mice on a CD (standardized mean difference (SMD) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63 to 1.91). Using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) score, there was a trend towards HFD causing OA (SMD 0.78, 95% CI -0.04 to 1.61). In terms of OA progression, a HFD consistently worsened the progression of surgically induced OA when compared with a CD. Finally, numerous inflammatory cytokines such as tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-1β, and leptin, among others, were found to be altered by a HFD. Conclusion. A HFD seems to induce or exacerbate the progression of OA in mice. The metabolic changes and systemic inflammation brought about by a HFD appear to be key players in the onset and progression of OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2019;8:582–592

The aim of this research was to determine biomechanical markers which differentiate medial knee osteoarthritis (OA) patients who do and do not show structural progression over a 2-year period. A cohort of 36 subjects was selected from a longitudinal study (Meireles et al 2017) using Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scores at baseline and 2-year follow-up. The cohort consisted of 10 healthy controls (HC) (KL=0 at both time points), 15 medial knee OA non-progressors (NPKOA) (KL≥1 at baseline and no change over 2 years), and 11 medial knee OA progressors (PKOA) (KL≥1 at baseline and increase of ≥1 over 2 years). 3D integrated motion capture data from three walking trials were processed through a musculoskeletal modelling framework (Smith et al 2016) to estimate knee joint loading parameters (i.e., magnitude of mean contact pressure, and centre of pressure (COP)). Parameters at first and second peak were extracted and compared between groups using Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests. Higher magnitudes were observed in PKOA vs NPKOA, and PKOA vs HC groups at both time points. Additionally, a posterior (1st and 2nd peak), and lateral (2nd peak) shift in medial compartment COP was shown between PKOA and NPKOA, and PKOA and HC subjects. Interestingly, in the studied parameters, no differences were observed between NPKOA and HC groups. Significantly higher magnitude, and a more posterior and lateral COP was observed between PKOA and NPKOA patients. These differences, combined with an absence of difference between NPKOA and HC suggest structural OA progression is driven by a combination of altered loading magnitude and location. These results may serve as guidelines for targeted gait retraining rehabilitation to slow or stop knee OA progression whereby shifting COP anterior and medial and reducing magnitude by ~22% may shift patients from a PKOA to a NPKOA trajectory

Nuclear factor erythroid 2–related factor 2 (Nrf2) is a crucial transcription factor to maintain cellular redox homeostasis, but is also affecting bone metabolism. As the association between Nrf2 and osteoporosis in elderly females is not fully elucidated, our aim was to shed light on the potential contribution of Nrf2 to the development of age-dependent osteoporosis using a mouse model. Female wild-type (WT, n=18) and Nrf2-knockout (KO, n=12) mice were sacrificed at different ages (12 weeks=young mature adult, and 90 weeks=old), morphological cortical and trabecular properties of femoral bone analyzed by micro-computed tomography (µCT), and compared to histochemistry. Mechanical properties were derived from quasi-static compression tests and digital image correlation (DIC) used to analyze full-field strain distribution. Bone resorbing cells and aromatase expression by osteocytes were evaluated immunohistochemically and empty osteocyte lacunae counted in cortical bone. Wilcoxon rank sum test was used for data comparison and differences considered statistically significant at p<0.05. When compared to old WT mice, old Nrf2-KO mice revealed a significantly reduced trabecular bone mineral density (BMD), cortical thickness (Ct.Th), cortical area (Ct.Ar), and cortical bone fraction (Ct.Ar/Tt.Ar). Surprisingly, these parameters were not different in skeletally mature young adult mice. Metaphyseal trabeculae were thin but present in all old WT mice, while no trabecular bone was detectable in 60% of old KO mice. Occurrence of empty osteocyte lacunae did not differ between both groups, but a significantly higher number of osteoclast-like cells and fewer aromatase-positive osteocytes were found in old KO mice. Furthermore, female Nrf2-KO mice showed an age-dependently reduced fracture resilience when compared to age-matched WT mice. Our results confirmed lower bone quantity and quality as well as an increased number of bone resorbing cells in old female Nrf2-KO mice. Additionally, aromatase expression in osteocytes of old Nrf2-KO mice was compromised, which may indicate a chronic lack of estrogen in bones of old Nrf2-deficient mice. Thus, chronic Nrf2 loss seems to contribute to age-dependent progression of female osteoporosis

Aims. To analyze the potential role of synovial fluid peptidase activity as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Methods. A cross-sectional study of 39 patients (women 71.8%, men 28.2%; mean age of 72.03 years (SD 1.15) with advanced KOA (Ahlbäck grade ≥ 3 and clinical indications for arthrocentesis) recruited through the (Orthopaedic Department at the Complejo Asistencial Universitario de León, Spain (CAULE)), measuring synovial fluid levels of puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase (PSA), neutral aminopeptidase (NAP), aminopeptidase B (APB), prolyl endopeptidase (PEP), aspartate aminopeptidase (ASP), glutamyl aminopeptidase (GLU) and pyroglutamyl aminopeptidase (PGAP). Results. Synovial fluid peptidase activity varied significantly as a function of clinical signs, with differences in levels of PEP (p = 0.020), ASP (p < 0.001), and PGAP (p = 0. 003) associated with knee locking, PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p = 0.000) with knee failure, and PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p < 0.001) with knee effusion. Further, patients with the greatest functional impairment had significantly higher levels of APB (p = 0.005), PEP (p = 0.005), ASP (p = 0.006), GLU (p = 0.020), and PGAP (p < 0.001) activity, though not of NAP or PSA, indicating local alterations in the renin-angiotensin system. A binary logistic regression model showed that PSA was protective (p = 0.005; Exp (B) 0.949), whereas PEP (p = 0.005) and GLU were risk factors (p = 0.012). Conclusion. These results suggest synovial fluid peptidase activity could play a role as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in KOA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):789–797

Introduction and Objective. Osteoarthristis (OA) has been associated with many genes and yet the genetic basis for this disease has never formally been established. Recent realization that epigenetic changes could be the underlying pathological mechanisms has helped to explain many complex multifactorial diseases with no clear genetic cause. We therefore asked whether epigenetics could also play a role in OA. We have previously shown that the DNA epigenetic modification, specifically the hydroxymethylation on cytosine (5hmC), undergoes a fivefold increase on OA-associated genes which are activated at OA onset. In this study, we further uncovered a set of 5hmC-mediated gene targets and their mechanistic link to OA progression. Materials and Methods. We surgically induced OA on 4 to 6 months old Tet1−/− mice (Tet1tm1.1Jae, the Jackson laboratory) and wild-type littermates by performing destabilization of the medial meniscus (DMM) surgery. Joints were collected for histological assessment through blinded grading with the OARSI scoring system. Human articular chondrocytes were harvested from OA cartilage samples obtained during total knee arthroplasty or from grossly normal cartilage pieces obtained during notchplasty or debridement from patients undergoing anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction with no history of OA symptoms, under approved Human subjects Institutional Review Board protocols. Bioinformatic analyses of RNA-sequencing and CCGG sequencing (reduced representation 5hmC profiling) were performed to identify TET1 target genes associated with OA progression. Several measurements were used to assess the effect of TET1 ablation on the phenotype of mouse cartilage tissue and human chondrocytes including, histological evaluation, and quantitative bone assessment by micro-CT imaging and multiplex cytokine analyses in the serum of mice in vivo (mouse 39-plex assay) and in the supernatant of human chondrocyte cultures (human 62-plex assay). Results. We used a mouse model with surgically induced OA and found that OA onset was accompanied by a gain of ∼40,000 differentially hydroxymethylated sites prior the notable histological onset of the disease. We additionally revealed that these changes are mediated by the ten-eleven-translocation enzyme 1 (TET1), since Tet1−/− mice lost 98% of 5hmC sites upon OA induction. Remarkably, Tet1−/− mice were protected from OA development including degeneration of the cartilage surface and osteophyte formation. Silencing of TET1 expression in human OA chondrocytes reduced the expression in a set of genes, which may represent the pathological gene targets that exacerbate OA including MMP3 and MMP13 and several inflammatory cytokines. Therefore, our study reveals the unexpected beneficial role of TET1 inhibition in blocking OA progression. In fact, intra-articular injections of a dioxygenases’ inhibitor, 2 hydroxyglutarate, on mice after surgical induction of OA stalled disease progression. Furthermore, treatment of human OA chondrocytes with the same inhibitor also phenocopied TET1 loss, implicating a therapeutic potential of TET inhibition in OA patients. Conclusions. Collectively, our study not only demonstrate the role of TET1 in OA; the 5hmC-mediated gene targets acting on multiple OA pathways were identified and can be modulated as therapeutic intervention to treat OA

To design osteoarthritis (OA) care based on prognosis, we need to identify individuals who are most likely of disease progression. We estimated survival time of the native hip and knee joint and evaluated what patient-related and OA disease-related factors associated with progression to joint replacement surgery. We included 72,069 patients referred to first-line OA intervention (patient education and exercise) during 2008 and 2016 and registered in the Swedish quality register Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis (BOA). Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were used to estimate joint survival time. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval [CI] were calculated using multiple Cox regression. The 5-year survival time of the native joint was 56% for hip OA and 80% for knee OA. Disease-related factors were more strongly associated with progression to joint replacement (e.g. willingness for surgery HR; hip 2.9 [95% CI, 2.7–3.1], knee 2.7 [2.6–2.9] and walking difficulties (HR; hip 2.2 [2.0–2.5], knee 1.9 [1.7–2.2]), than patient-related factors such socioeconomic factors (e.g. highest income quartile HR; hip 1.3 [1.2–1.3], knee 1.3 [1.2–1.4]) and comorbidities (e.g. ≥6 conditions HR; hip: 0.7 [0.6–0.7], knee; 1.1 [1.0–1.2]). Patients with hip OA were more likely to undergo surgery and at an earlier time compared with those with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by factors associated with the OA disease, but other patient-related factors are important. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery, especially among those with knee OA

Developmental dysplasia of the hip can cause pain and premature osteoarthritis. However, the risk factors and timing for disease progression in young adults are not fully defined. This study identified the incidence and risk factors for contralateral hip pain and surgery after periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) on an index dysplastic hip. Patients followed for 2+ years after unilateral PAO were grouped by eventual contralateral pain or no-pain, based on modified Harris Hip Score, and surgery or no-surgery. Univariate analysis tested group differences in demographics, radiographic measures, and range-of-motion. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis assessed pain development and contralateral hip surgery over time. Multivariate regression identified pain and surgery risk factors. Pain and surgery predictors were further analyzed in Dysplastic, Borderline, and Non-dysplastic subcategories, and in five-degree increments of lateral center edge angle (LCEA) and acetabular inclination (AI). 184 patients were followed for 4.6±1.6 years, during which 51% (93/184) reported hip pain and 33% (60/184) underwent contralateral surgery. Kaplan-Meier analysis predicted 5-year survivorship of 49% for pain development and 66% for contralateral surgery. Painful hips exhibited more severe dysplasia than no-pain hips (LCEA 16.5º vs 20.3º, p<0.001; AI 13.2º vs 10.0º p<0.001). AI was the sole predictor of pain, with every 1° AI increase raising the risk by 11%. Surgical hips also had more severe dysplasia (LCEA 14.9º vs 20.0º, p<0.001; AI 14.7º vs 10.2º p<0.001) and were younger (21.6 vs 24.1 years, p=0.022). AI and a maximum alpha angle ≥55° predicted contralateral surgery. 5 years after index hip PAO, 51% of contralateral hips experience pain and 34% percent are expected to need surgery. More severe dysplasia, based on LCEA and AI, increases the risk of contralateral hip pain and surgery, with AI being a predictor of both outcomes. Knowing these risks can inform patient counseling and treatment planning

Objectives. This study aimed to examine the effects of SRT1720, a potent SIRT1 activator, on osteoarthritis (OA) progression using an experimental OA model. Methods. Osteoarthritis was surgically induced by destabilization of the medial meniscus in eight-week-old C57BL/6 male mice. SRT1720 was administered intraperitoneally twice a week after surgery. Osteoarthritis progression was evaluated histologically using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) score at four, eight, 12 and 16 weeks. The expression of SIRT1, matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP-13), a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs-5 (ADAMTS-5), cleaved caspase-3, PARP p85, and acetylated nuclear factor (NF)-κB p65 in cartilage was examined by immunohistochemistry. Synovitis was also evaluated histologically. Primary mouse epiphyseal chondrocytes were treated with SRT1720 in the presence or absence of interleukin 1 beta (IL-1β), and gene expression changes were examined by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results. The OARSI score was significantly lower in mice treated with SRT1720 than in control mice at eight and 12 weeks associated with the decreased size of osteophytes at four and eight weeks. The delayed OA progression in the mice treated with SRT1720 was also associated with increased SIRT1-positive chondrocytes and decreased MMP-13-, ADAMTS-5-, cleaved caspase-3-, PARP p85-, and acetylated NF-κB p65-positive chondrocytes and decreased synovitis at four and eight weeks. SRT1720 treatment partially rescued the decreases in collagen type II alpha 1 (COL2A1) and aggrecan caused by IL-1β, while also reducing the induction of MMP-13 by IL-1β in vitro. Conclusion. The intraperitoneal injection of SRT1720 attenuated experimental OA progression in mice, indicating that SRT1720 could be a new therapeutic approach for OA. Cite this article: K. Nishida, T. Matsushita, K. Takayama, T. Tanaka, N. Miyaji, K. Ibaraki, D. Araki, N. Kanzaki, T. Matsumoto, R. Kuroda. Intraperitoneal injection of the SIRT1 activator SRT1720 attenuates the progression of experimental osteoarthritis in mice. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:252–262. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.73.BJR-2017-0227.R1

Objectives. In this study, we compared the pain behaviour and osteoarthritis (OA) progression between anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLT) and osteochondral injury in surgically-induced OA rat models. Methods. OA was induced in the knee joints of male Wistar rats using transection of the ACL or induction of osteochondral injury. Changes in the percentage of high limb weight distribution (%HLWD) on the operated hind limb were used to determine the pain behaviour in these models. The development of OA was assessed and compared using a histological evaluation based on the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) cartilage OA histopathology score. Results. Both models showed an increase in joint pain as indicated by a significant (p < 0.05) decrease in the values of %HLWD at one week post-surgery. In the osteochondral injury model, the %HLWD returned to normal within three weeks, while in the ACLT model, a significant decrease in the %HLWD was persistent over an eight-week period. In addition, OA progression was more advanced in the ACLT model than in the osteochondral injury model. Furthermore, the ACLT model exhibited a higher mean OA score than that of the osteochondral injury model at 12 weeks. Conclusion. The development of pain patterns in the ACLT and osteochondral injury models is different in that the OA progression was significant in the ACLT model. Although both can be used as models for a post-traumatic injury of the knee, the selection of appropriate models for OA in preclinical studies should be specified and relevant to the clinical scenario. Cite this article: T. Tawonsawatruk, O. Sriwatananukulkit, W. Himakhun, W. Hemstapat. Comparison of pain behaviour and osteoarthritis progression between anterior cruciate ligament transection and osteochondral injury in rat models. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:244–251. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.73.BJR-2017-0121.R2

Scoliosis is a common problem in cerebral palsy typified by rapid progression that often leads to large curve magnitudes even after skeletal maturity. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between curve progression and disease severity in cerebral palsy according to the Gross Motor Function Classification (GMFCS). This retrospective study reviewed 34 children with a known diagnosis of cerebral palsy who were scheduled for or have already had surgical stabilization for scoliosis. Two patients (6%) were classified as GMFCS level III, 13 (38%) as GMFCS level IV, and 19 (56%) as GMFCS level V. There were no patients in GMFCS levels I or II. Between the more severely involved children in GMFCS levels IV and V, there were no significant differences in curve magnitude at first presentation (means, 41.4 and 45.3 degrees, respectively; p=O.72), peak curve progression (28.2 degrees – interval 1.5 years, 31.4 degrees – interval 1. 75 years, respectively; p=O.35), or age at onset of peak curve progression (12.2 and 11.2 years, respectively). When adjusted for age at presentation, however, there was some indication of a difference in initial curve magnitude between GMFCS levels IV and V (least squares means, 35.7 and 49.2 degrees, respectively; p=O.10). The small number of patients in GMFCS level III precluded statistical analysis. In this study, the nature of scoliosis in cerebral palsy was found to be related to functional level. Once scoliosis has been diagnosed, children in the higher GMFCS levels have an increased risk of rapid and unpredictable curve progression

Introduction: Progression of lumbosacral spondylolisthesis during adolescence is not uncommon, but it is rare in adults. Structural changes in adolescent spondylolisthesis have been reported as possibly predictive and contributory to progression. Aim: To review the structural changes that occur with and possibly contribute to slip progression in lumbosacral spondylolisthesis. Methods: The radiographs of 42 patients with lumbosacral spondylolisthesis who had been followed for a mean period of six years were reviewed. The following radiological parameters were determined from the initial and latest radiographs:. Percentage slip. Slip angle. Rounding of the sacrum. Trapezoid index of L5 vertebral body. Progression of a lumbar lordosis was defined as an increase in slip of 5% or more. Results: Strong correlations (p< 0.01) existed between all radiological parameters at the time of the initial examination and at follow-up. Changes in percentage slip over time correlated with changes in all radiological parameters (p< 0.01). Slip progression correlated with increased slip angle (p< 0.01), increased trapezoid index (p< 0.05), and increased lordosis (p< 0.01) but not with age (p=0.16), adolescence (p=0.10), gender or with spondylolysis. The risk of slip progression was greatest for adolescents with an initial slip of 30% or more (p=0.13, Odds Ratio=5.7). Conclusions: Slip progression in lumbosacral spondylolisthesis was associated with corresponding proportional structural changes in the sacrum and the L5 vertebral body, possibly related to growth and remodelling. The tendency to progress was greatest in adolescents with slips of greater than 30%. This relationship was sufficiently strong to consider prophylactic fusion

Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Objective: To determine the rate of curve progression and factors related to curve progression in untreated adolescent idiopathic scoliosis in a prospective cohort study within a national school screening program. Methods: Over 140,000 school children are screened annually in Singapore for common health conditions, including scoliosis. In 1996–97, a randomized sample in four age groups consisting of 72,699 children was enrolled in a scoliosis prevalence study, 263 were found to have spinal curvatures of 10 degrees or more. After exclusions, 250 children were followed up over a five year period up to 2001–02. Basic demographic data, age at menarche or break of voice, scoliometer reading, curve type, Cobb angle, curve rotation, and Risser grade were recorded. Curve progression was correlated to individual factors such as age, sex, puberty, curve type and magnitude as well as combinations of factors. Results: Overall, 28% of the 250 curves progressed. Age at diagnosis, sex, pre-menarche status, and curve magnitude were statistically correlated to curve progression. Taking curve magnitude and age together, 53% of 11–12 year-olds with curves 20 degrees or more progressed compared to 10% of 13–14 year-olds with curves less than 20 degrees. 56% of children with curves 20 degrees or more and Risser grades 0–2 progressed, compared to 17% with curves less than 20 degrees and Risser grades 3–5. Combining curve magnitude, age, sex, and puberty together, a pre-pubertal female under 13 years old with a curve of 25 degrees or more has a 70% chance of curve progression. In comparison, a post-pubertal female older than 13 years of age and a curve of less than 25 degrees has only a 10% chance of progression. Curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis has been reported to vary from 5.2% to 56%, with the lower rates being found in school screening studies. Nachemson et al (1982) reported that 10–12 year old girls with untreated scoliosis of 20–29 degrees had a 60% risk of curve progression. Lonstein and Carlson (1984) reported progression in 23.2% of untreated children and that curve magnitude, skeletal immaturity, and curve pattern were associated with progression. Conclusions: Our findings are similar, with pre-pubertal females under the age of 13 years old and with large curves at diagnosis having the greatest risk of progression

Cartilage neoangiogenesis holds a key role in the development of osteoarthritis (OA) by promoting cartilage degradation with proteoglycan loss, subchondral bone sclerosis, osteophyte formation and synovial hyperplasia. This study aimed to assess the in vivo efficacy of bevacizumab, an antibody against vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in an OA animal model. 24 New Zealand white rabbits underwent anterior cruciate ligament transection in order to spontaneously develop knee OA. Animals were divided into four groups: one receiving a sham intraarticular knee injection (saline) and three groups treated with 5, 10, and 20 mg intraarticular bevacizumab injections. The biological effect of the antibody on cartilage and synovium was evaluated through histology and quantified with the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) scores. Immunohistochemical analysis was conducted to investigate type 2 collagen, aggrecan, and matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP-13) expression in both cartilage and synovium. Intraarticular bevacizumab led to a significant reduction of cartilage degeneration and synovial OA alterations. Immunohistochemistry showed a significantly reduced MMP-13 expression in all experimental groups, with the one receiving 20 mg bevacizumab showing the lowest. Furthermore, the antibody showed to increment the production of aggrecan and type 2 collagen after administration of 5, 10, and 20 mg. The group treated with 20 mg showed the highest levels of type 2 collagen expression, while aggrecan content was even higher than in the healthy cartilage. Intraarticular bevacizumab has demonstrated to effectively arrest OA progression in our model, with 20 mg being the most efficacious dose. By inhibiting cartilage and synovial neoangiogenesis, bevacizumab may serve as a possible disease-modifying osteoarthritis drug (DMOAD) in the next future