To design osteoarthritis (OA) care based on prognosis, we need to identify individuals who are most likely of disease progression. We estimated survival time of the native hip and knee joint and evaluated what patient-related and OA disease-related factors associated with progression to joint replacement surgery. We included 72,069 patients referred to first-line OA intervention (patient education and exercise) during 2008 and 2016 and registered in the Swedish quality register Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis (BOA). Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were used to estimate joint survival time. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval [CI] were calculated using multiple Cox regression. The 5-year survival time of the native joint was 56% for hip OA and 80% for knee OA. Disease-related factors were more strongly associated with progression to joint replacement (e.g. willingness for surgery HR; hip 2.9 [95% CI, 2.7–3.1], knee 2.7 [2.6–2.9] and walking difficulties (HR; hip 2.2 [2.0–2.5], knee 1.9 [1.7–2.2]), than patient-related factors such socioeconomic factors (e.g. highest income quartile HR; hip 1.3 [1.2–1.3], knee 1.3 [1.2–1.4]) and comorbidities (e.g. ≥6 conditions HR; hip: 0.7 [0.6–0.7], knee; 1.1 [1.0–1.2]). Patients with hip OA were more likely to undergo surgery and at an earlier time compared with those with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by factors associated with the OA disease, but other patient-related factors are important. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery, especially among those with knee OA

Purpose of study and background. The use of NRB (Nerve Root Block) in radicular pain caused by stenosis is considered controversial in some centres, whereas its indication in radiculitis caused by disc herniation is widely accepted. Most studies evaluating NRB have combined disc herniation and stenosis pathologies in their inclusion criteria. This study explores the efficacy of NRB in different categories of stenosis: lateral recess, foraminal and combined. Methods and results. 68 patients underwent NRB by an ESP (Extended Scope Physiotherapist). 37 females, 31 males, mean age 75 years (range 23–87). Their stenosis was categorized as either lateral recess (n=43), foraminal (n=18), or combined (n=7) on MRI scan evaluation by 2 reviewers. Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire and Visual Analogue Scores were recorded pre-injection and 6 weeks post injection. 2 year final outcome was recorded with an ‘in-house’ questionnaire. 2 year outcome: Lateral recess stenosis: 37% had surgery, 40% required no further treatment. In foraminal stenosis: 17% had surgery, 50% required no further treatment. Combined pathology: 43% had surgery, 57% required no further treatment. Patients requiring no further treatment rated their 2 year outcome as satisfactory symptom control. Of the whole group 15% required a repeat injection, 7% were referred to pain clinic and one patient had died. Conclusion. A single NRB is an effective long term (two year) treatment for 44% of patients undergoing the procedure for radicular pain secondary to spinal stenosis. Its use should be considered as a first-line intervention in this group of patients prior to exploring surgical options. This abstract has not been previously published in whole or substantial part nor has it been presented previously at a national meeting