Waiting times for arthroplasty surgery in Northern Ireland are among the longest in the National Health Service, which have been further lengthened by the onset of the SARS-CoV-19 global pandemic in March 2020. The Department of Health (DoH) in Northern Ireland has announced a new Elective Care Framework (ECF), with the framework proposing that by March 2026 no patient will wait more than 52 weeks for inpatient/day case treatment. We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving this with reference to Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA). Waiting list information was obtained via a Freedom of Information request to the DoH (May 2021) and National Joint Registry data was used to determine baseline operative numbers. Mathematical modelling was undertaken to calculate the time taken to meet the ECF target and also to determine the time to clear the waiting lists for THA using the number of patients currently on the waiting list and percentage operating capacity relative to pre-Covid-19 capacity to determine future projections. As of May 2021, there were 3,757 patients awaiting primary THA in Northern Ireland. Prior to April 2020, there were a mean 2,346 patients/annum added to the waiting list for primary THA and there were a mean 1,624 primary THAs performed per annum. The ECF targets for THA will only be achieved in 2026 if operating capacity is 200% of pre COVID-19 pandemic capacity and will be achieved in 2030 if capacity is 170%. Surgical capacity must exceed pre-Covid capacity by at least 30% to meet ongoing demand. THA capacity was significantly reduced following resumption of elective orthopaedics post-COVID-19 (22% of pre-COVID-19 capacity – 355 THAs/annum post-COVID-19 versus 1,624/annum pre-COVID-19). This modelling demonstrates that, in the absence of major funding and reorganisation of elective orthopaedic care, the targets set out in the ECF will not be achieved with regards to hip arthroplasty. Waiting times for THA surgery in the NHS in Northern Ireland are likely to remain greater than 52 weeks for most of this decade.
