The aim of this study was to determine predictors of persisting moderate/severe pain post orthopaedic injury.

Data were obtained from patients presenting to the two adult level 1 trauma centres in Victoria, Australia between August 2003 and August 2004. The maximum self reported pain levels at discharge and at 6 months post injury were determined using 11-point visual analogue scales (VAS). Moderate/severe pain was defined as a VAS score of 5 or greater. Associations between categorical variables were determined using chi-square tests and adjusted using multivariate logistic regression to determine possible predictors of persistent pain.

Data were obtained from 742 patients (age 15–100 years, 60.7% male). 37.1% had moderate/severe pain 6 months post injury. Moderate/severe pain at discharge was associated with an increased risk (OR 2.46 (95%CI 1.72–3.52), p< 0.0001) and isolated upper extremity injuries were associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.43 (95%CI 0.24–0.75), p=0.003) of moderate/severe pain 6 months post injury. Age (p=0.98), gender (p=0.37) and the presence of multiple orthopaedic (p=0.76) or non-orthopaedic injuries (p=0.58) were not predictors of moderate/severe pain 6 months post injury.

The severity of pain at discharge was the main predictor of moderate/severe pain 6 months following orthopaedic trauma. Further studies are needed to determine if improving pain control prior to discharge can reduce the incidence of persistent pain following orthopaedic injury.