Aims. Surgeon and patient reluctance to participate are potential significant barriers to conducting placebo-controlled trials of orthopaedic surgery. Understanding the preferences of orthopaedic surgeons and patients regarding the design of randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCT-Ps) of knee procedures can help to identify what RCT-P features will lead to the greatest participation. This information could inform future trial designs and feasibility assessments. Methods. This study used two discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to determine which features of RCT-Ps of knee procedures influence surgeon and patient participation. A mixed-methods approach informed the DCE development. The DCEs were analyzed with a baseline category multinomial logit model. Results. The proportion of respondents (surgeons n = 103; patients n = 140) who would not participate in any of the DCE choice sets (surgeons = 31%; patients = 40%), and the proportion who would participate in all (surgeons = 18%; patients = 30%), indicated strong views regarding the conduct of RCT-Ps. There were three main findings: for both surgeons and patients, studies which involved an arthroscopic procedure were more likely to result in participation than those with a total knee arthroplasty; as the age (for patients) and years of experience (for surgeons) increased, the overall likelihood of participation decreased; and, for surgeons, offering authorship and input into the RCT-P design was preferred for less experienced surgeons, while only completing the procedure was preferred by more experienced surgeons. Conclusion. Patients and surgeons have strong views regarding participation in RCT-Ps. However, understanding their preferences can inform future trial designs and feasibility assessments with regard to recruitment rates. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(12):1408–1415

Aims. The risk of mechanical failure of modular revision hip stems is frequently mentioned in the literature, but little is currently known about the actual clinical failure rates of this type of prosthesis. The current retrospective long-term analysis examines the distal and modular failure patterns of the Prevision hip stem from 18 years of clinical use. A design improvement of the modular taper was introduced in 2008, and the data could also be used to compare the original and the current design of the modular connection. Methods. We performed an analysis of the Prevision modular hip stem using the manufacturer’s vigilance database and investigated different mechanical failure patterns of the hip stem from January 2004 to December 2022. Results. Two mechanical failure patterns were identified: fractures in the area of the distal fluted profile (distal stem fracture) and failure of the modular taper (modular fracture). A failure rate of 0.07% was observed for distal stem fracture, and modular fracture rates of 1.74% for the original and 0.013% for the current taper design. Conclusion. A low risk of mechanical failure for both fracture types was observed compared to other known complications in revision hip arthroplasty. In addition, the data show that a design change did significantly reduce the risk of a modular fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):151–157

Aims. The aim of this trial was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a soft bandage and immediate discharge, compared with rigid immobilization, in children aged four to 15 years with a torus fracture of the distal radius. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective, as well as a broader societal point of view. Health resources and quality of life (the youth version of the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-Y)) data were collected, as part of the Forearm Recovery in Children Evaluation (FORCE) multicentre randomized controlled trial over a six-week period, using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Costs and health gains (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) were estimated for the two trial treatment groups. Regression was used to estimate the probability of the new treatment being cost-effective at a range of ‘willingness-to-pay’ thresholds, which reflect a range of costs per QALY at which governments are typically prepared to reimburse for treatment. Results. The offer of a soft bandage significantly reduced cost per patient (saving £12.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£5.30 to £19.80)) while QALYs were similar (QALY difference between groups: 0.0013 (95% CI -0.0004 to 0.003)). The high probability (95%) that offering a bandage is a cost-effective option was consistent when examining the data in a range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. In addition to the known clinical equivalence, this study found that the offer of a bandage reduced cost compared with rigid immobilization among children with a torus fracture of the distal radius. While the cost saving was small for each patient, the high frequency of these injuries indicates a significant saving across the healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):623–630

Aims. A national screening programme has existed in the UK for the diagnosis of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) since 1969. However, every aspect of screening and treatment remains controversial. Screening programmes throughout the world vary enormously, and in the UK there is significant variation in screening practice and treatment pathways. We report the results of an attempt by the British Society for Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery (BSCOS) to identify a nationwide consensus for the management of DDH in order to unify treatment and suggest an approach for screening. Methods. A Delphi consensus study was performed among the membership of BSCOS. Statements were generated by a steering group regarding aspects of the management of DDH in children aged under three months, namely screening and surveillance (15 questions), the technique of ultrasound scanning (eight questions), the initiation of treatment (19 questions), care during treatment with a splint (ten questions), and on quality, governance, and research (eight questions). A two-round Delphi process was used and a consensus document was produced at the final meeting of the steering group. Results. A total of 60 statements were graded by 128 clinicians in the first round and 132 in the second round. Consensus was reached on 30 out of 60 statements in the first round and an additional 12 in the seond. This was summarized in a consensus statement and distilled into a flowchart to guide clinical practice. Conclusion. We identified agreement in an area of medicine that has a long history of controversy and varied practice. None of the areas of consensus are based on high-quality evidence. This document is thus a framework to guide clinical practice and on which high-quality clinical trials can be developed. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):209–214

Aims. To report the outcomes of patients with a fracture of the distal tibia who were treated with intramedullary nail versus locking plate in the five years after participating in the Fixation of Distal Tibia fracture (FixDT) trial. Methods. The FixDT trial reported the results for 321 patients randomized to nail or locking plate fixation in the first 12 months after their injury. In this follow-up study, we report the results of 170 of the original participants who agreed to be followed up until five years. Participants reported their Disability Rating Index (DRI) and health-related quality of life (EuroQol five-dimension three-level questionnaire) annually by self-reported questionnaire. Further surgical interventions related to the fracture were also recorded. Results. There was no evidence of a difference in patient-reported disability, health-related quality of life, or the need for further surgery between participants treated with either type of fixation at five years. Considering the combined results for all participants, there was no significant change in DRI scores after the first 12 months of follow-up (difference between 12 and 24 months, 3.3 (95% confidence interval -1.8 to 8.5); p = 0.203), with patients reporting around 20% disability at five years. Conclusion. This study shows that the moderate levels of disability and reduced quality of life reported by participants 12 months after a fracture of the distal tibia persist in the medium term, with little evidence of improvement after the first year. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):795–800

Aims. Intra-articular (IA) injection may be used when treating hip osteoarthritis (OA). Common injections include steroids, hyaluronic acid (HA), local anaesthetic, and platelet-rich plasma (PRP). Network meta-analysis allows for comparisons between two or more treatment groups and uses direct and indirect comparisons between interventions. This network meta-analysis aims to compare the efficacy of various IA injections used in the management of hip OA with a follow-up of up to six months. Methods. This systematic review and network meta-analysis used a Bayesian random-effects model to evaluate the direct and indirect comparisons among all treatment options. PubMed, Web of Science, Clinicaltrial.gov, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to February 2023. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) which evaluate the efficacy of HA, PRP, local anaesthetic, steroid, steroid+anaesthetic, HA+PRP, and physiological saline injection as a placebo, for patients with hip OA were included. Results. In this meta-analysis of 16 RCTs with a total of 1,735 participants, steroid injection was found to be significantly more effective than placebo injection on reported pain at three months, but no significant difference was observed at six months. Furthermore, steroid injection was considerably more effective than placebo injection for functional outcomes at three months, while the combination of HA+PRP injection was substantially more effective at six months. Conclusion. Evidence suggests that steroid injection is more effective than saline injection for the treatment of hip joint pain, and restoration of functional outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):532–539

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. This study compared patient-reported outcomes of three total knee arthroplasty (TKA) designs from one manufacturer: one cruciate-retaining (CR) design, and two cruciate-sacrificing designs, anterior-stabilized (AS) and posterior-stabilized (PS). Methods. Patients scheduled for primary TKA were included in a single-centre, prospective, three-armed, blinded randomized trial (n = 216; 72 per group). After intraoperative confirmation of posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) integrity, patients were randomly allocated to receive a CR, AS, or PS design from the same TKA system. Insertion of an AS or PS design required PCL resection. The primary outcome was the mean score of all five subscales of the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) at two-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes included all KOOS subscales, Oxford Knee Score, EuroQol five-dimension health questionnaire, EuroQol visual analogue scale, range of motion (ROM), and willingness to undergo the operation again. Patient satisfaction was also assessed. Results. Patients reported similar levels of pain, function, satisfaction, and general health regardless of the prosthetic design they received. Mean maximal flexion (129° (95% confidence interval (CI) 127° to 131°) was greater in the PS group than in the CR (120° (95% CI 121° to 124°)) and AS groups (122° (95% CI 120° to 124°)). Conclusion. Despite differences in design and constraint, CR, AS, and PS designs from a single TKA system resulted in no differences in patient-reported outcomes at two-year follow-up. PS patients had statistically better ROM, but the clinical significance of this finding is unclear. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(12):1271–1278

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the longer-term outcomes of operatively and nonoperatively managed patients treated with a removable brace (fixed-angle removable orthosis) or a plaster cast immobilization for an acute ankle fracture. Methods. This is a secondary analysis of a multicentre randomized controlled trial comparing adults with an acute ankle fracture, initially managed either by operative or nonoperative care. Patients were randomly allocated to receive either a cast immobilization or a fixed-angle removable orthosis (removable brace). Data were collected on baseline characteristics, ankle function, quality of life, and complications. The Olerud-Molander Ankle Score (OMAS) was the primary outcome which was used to measure the participant’s ankle function. The primary endpoint was at 16 weeks, with longer-term follow-up at 24 weeks and two years. Results. Overall, 436 patients (65%) completed the final two-year follow-up. The mean difference in OMAS at two years was -0.3 points favouring the plaster cast (95% confidence interval -3.9 to 3.4), indicating no statistically significant difference between the interventions. There was no evidence of differences in patient quality of life (measured using the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire) or Disability Rating Index. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that patients treated with a removable brace had similar outcomes to those treated with a plaster cast in the first two years after injury. A removable brace is an effective alternative to traditional immobilization in a plaster cast for patients with an ankle fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):382–388

Aims. Cemented hemiarthroplasty is an effective form of treatment for most patients with an intracapsular fracture of the hip. However, it remains unclear whether there are subgroups of patients who may benefit from the alternative operation of a modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty – the aim of this study was to investigate this issue. Knowledge about the heterogeneity of treatment effects is important for surgeons in order to target operations towards specific subgroups who would benefit the most. Methods. We used causal forest analysis to compare subgroup- and individual-level treatment effects between cemented and modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty in patients aged > 60 years with an intracapsular fracture of the hip, using data from the World Hip Trauma Evaluation 5 (WHiTE 5) multicentre randomized clinical trial. EuroQol five-dimension index scores were used to measure health-related quality of life at one, four, and 12 months postoperatively. Results. Our analysis revealed a complex landscape of responses to the use of a cemented hemiarthroplasty in the 12 months after surgery. There was heterogeneity of effects with regard to baseline characteristics, including age, pre-injury health status, and lifestyle factors such as alcohol consumption. This heterogeneity was greater at the one-month mark than at subsequent follow-up timepoints, with particular regard to subgroups based on age. However, for all subgroups, the effect estimates for quality of life lay within the confidence intervals derived from the analysis of all patients. Conclusion. The use of a cemented hemiarthroplasty is expected to increase health-related quality of life compared with modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty for all subgroups of patients aged > 60 years with a displaced intracapsular fracture of the hip. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):656–661

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare a bicruciate-retaining (BCR) total knee arthroplasty (TKA) with a posterior cruciate-retaining (CR) TKA design in terms of kinematics, measured using fluoroscopy and stability as micromotion using radiostereometric analysis (RSA). Methods. A total of 40 patients with end-stage osteoarthritis were included in this randomized controlled trial. All patients performed a step-up and lunge task in front of a monoplane fluoroscope one year postoperatively. Femorotibial contact point (CP) locations were determined at every flexion angle and compared between the groups. RSA images were taken at baseline, six weeks, three, six, 12, and 24 months postoperatively. Clinical and functional outcomes were compared postoperatively for two years. Results. The BCR-TKA demonstrated a kinematic pattern comparable to the natural knee’s screw-home mechanism in the step-up task. In the lunge task, the medial CP of the BCR-TKA was more anterior in the early flexion phase, while laterally the CP was more posterior during the entire movement cycle. The BCR-TKA group showed higher tibial migration. No differences were found for the clinical and functional outcomes. Conclusion. The BCR-TKA shows a different kinematic pattern in early flexion/late extension compared to the CR-TKA. The difference between both implants is mostly visible in the flexion phase in which the anterior cruciate ligament is effective; however, both designs fail to fully replicate the motion of a natural knee. The higher migration of the BCR-TKA was concerning and highlights the importance of longer follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):35–46

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival of a collarless, straight, hydroxyapatite-coated femoral stem in total hip arthroplasty (THA) at a minimum follow-up of 20 years. Methods. We reviewed the results of 165 THAs using the Omnifit HA system in 138 patients, performed between August 1993 and December 1999. The mean age of the patients at the time of surgery was 46 years (20 to 77). Avascular necrosis was the most common indication for THA, followed by ankylosing spondylitis and primary osteoarthritis. The mean follow-up was 22 years (20 to 31). At 20 and 25 years, 113 THAs in 91 patients and 63 THAs in 55 patients were available for review, respectively, while others died or were lost to follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to evaluate the survival of the stem. Radiographs were reviewed regularly, and the stability of the stem was evaluated using the Engh classification. Results. A total of seven stems (4.2%) were revised during the study period: one for aseptic loosening, three for periprosthetic fracture, two for infection, and one for recurrent dislocation. At 20 years, survival with revision of the stem for any indication and for aseptic loosening as the endpoint was 96.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 92.6 to 99.5) and 98.4% (95% CI 96.2 to 100), respectively. At 25 years, the corresponding rates of survival were 94.5% (95% CI 89.9 to 99.3) and 98.1% (95% CI 95.7 to 99.6), respectively. There was radiological evidence of stable bony fixation in 86 stems (76.1%) and evidence of loosening in four (3.5%) at 20 years. All patients with radiological evidence of loosening were asymptomatic. Conclusion. The Omnifit HA femoral stem offered promising long-term survival into the third decade. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):110–114

Aims. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between hip shape and mid-term function in Perthes’ disease. It also explored whether the modified three-group Stulberg classification can offer similar prognostic information to the five-group system. Methods. A total of 136 individuals aged 12 years or older who had Perthes’ disease in childhood completed the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Mobility score (function), Nonarthritic Hip Score (NAHS) (function), EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) score (quality of life), and the numeric rating scale for pain (NRS). The Stulberg class of the participants’ hip radiographs were evaluated by three fellowship-trained paediatric orthopaedic surgeons. Hip shape and Stulberg class were compared to PROM scores. Results. A spherical hip was associated with the highest function and quality of life, and lowest pain. Conversely, aspherical hips exhibited the lowest functional scores and highest pain. The association between worsening Stulberg class (i.e. greater deviation from sphericity) and worse outcome persisted after adjustment for age and sex in relation to PROMIS (predicted mean difference -1.77 (95% confidence interval (CI) -2.70 to -0.83)), NAHS (-5.68 (95% CI -8.45 to -2.90)), and NRS (0.61 (95% CI 0.14 to 1.08)), but not EQ-5D-5L (-0.03 (95% CI -0.72 to 0.11)). Conclusion. Patient-reported outcomes identify lower function, quality of life, and higher pain in aspherical hips. The magnitude of symptoms deteriorated with time. Hip sphericity (i.e. the modified three-group classification of spherical, oval, and aspherical) appeared to offer similar levels of detail to the five-group Stulberg classification. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):711–716

Aims. Implantation of ultra-purified alginate (UPAL) gel is safe and effective in animal osteochondral defect models. This study aimed to examine the applicability of UPAL gel implantation to acellular therapy in humans with cartilage injury. Methods. A total of 12 patients (12 knees) with symptomatic, post-traumatic, full-thickness cartilage lesions (1.0 to 4.0 cm. 2. ) were included in this study. UPAL gel was implanted into chondral defects after performing bone marrow stimulation technique, and assessed for up to three years postoperatively. The primary outcomes were the feasibility and safety of the procedure. The secondary outcomes were self-assessed clinical scores, arthroscopic scores, tissue biopsies, and MRI-based estimations. Results. No obvious adverse events related to UPAL gel implantation were observed. Self-assessed clinical scores, including pain, symptoms, activities of daily living, sports activity, and quality of life, were improved significantly at three years after surgery. Defect filling was confirmed using second-look arthroscopy at 72 weeks. Significantly improved MRI scores were observed from 12 to 144 weeks postoperatively. Histological examination of biopsy specimens obtained at 72 weeks after implantation revealed an extracellular matrix rich in glycosaminoglycan and type II collagen in the reparative tissue. Histological assessment yielded a mean overall International Cartilage Regeneration & Joint Preservation Society II score of 69.1 points (SD 10.4; 50 to 80). Conclusion. This study provides evidence supporting the safety of acellular UPAL gel implantation in facilitating cartilage repair. Despite being a single-arm study, it demonstrated the efficacy of UPAL gel implantation, suggesting it is an easy-to-use, one-step method of cartilage tissue repair circumventing the need to harvest donor cells. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):880–887

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate the incremental use of resources, costs, and quality of life outcomes associated with surgical reconstruction compared to rehabilitation for long-standing anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in the NHS, and to estimate its cost-effectiveness. Methods. A total of 316 patients were recruited and randomly assigned to either surgical reconstruction or rehabilitation (physiotherapy but with subsequent reconstruction permitted if instability persisted after treatment). Healthcare resource use and health-related quality of life data (EuroQol five-dimension five-level health questionnaire) were collected in the trial at six, 12, and 18 months using self-reported questionnaires and medical records. Using intention-to-treat analysis, differences in costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) between treatment arms were estimated adjusting for baseline differences and following multiple imputation of missing data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as the difference in costs divided by the difference in QALYs between reconstruction and rehabilitation. Results. At 18 months, patients in the surgical reconstruction arm reported higher QALYs (0.052 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.012 to 0.117); p = 0.177) and higher NHS costs (£1,017 (95% CI 557 to 1,476); p < 0.001) compared to rehabilitation. This resulted in an ICER of £19,346 per QALY with the probability of surgical reconstruction being cost-effective of 51% and 72% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY, respectively. Conclusion. Surgical reconstruction as a management strategy for patients with long-standing ACL injury is more effective, but more expensive, at 18 months compared to rehabilitation management. In the UK setting, surgical reconstruction is cost-effective. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):38–45

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of arthroscopic partial meniscectomy versus physical therapy plus optional delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy in young patients aged under 45 years with traumatic meniscal tears. Methods. We conducted a multicentre, open-labelled, randomized controlled trial in patients aged 18 to 45 years, with a recent onset, traumatic, MRI-verified, isolated meniscal tear without knee osteoarthritis. Patients were randomized to arthroscopic partial meniscectomy or standardized physical therapy with an optional delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy after three months of follow-up. We performed a cost-utility analysis on the randomization groups to compare both treatments over a 24-month follow-up period. Cost utility was calculated as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of arthroscopic partial meniscectomy compared to physical therapy. Calculations were performed from a healthcare system perspective and a societal perspective. Results. A total of 100 patients were included: 49 were randomized to arthroscopic partial meniscectomy and 51 to physical therapy. In the physical therapy group, 21 patients (41%) received delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy during follow-up. Over 24 months, patients in the arthroscopic partial meniscectomy group had a mean 0.005 QALYs lower quality of life (95% confidence interval -0.13 to 0.14). The cost-utility ratio was €-160,000/QALY from the healthcare perspective and €-223,372/QALY from the societal perspective, indicating that arthroscopic partial meniscectomy incurs additional costs without any added health benefit. Conclusion. Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy is arthroscopic partial meniscectomy is unlikely to be cost-effective in treating young patients with isolated traumatic meniscal tears compared to physical therapy as a primary health intervention. Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy leads to a similar quality of life, but higher costs, compared to physical therapy plus optional delayed arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(11):1177–1183

Aims. Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. Methods. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS. Results. In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias. Conclusion. We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):412–418

Aims. The aim of this study was to gain a consensus for best practice of the assessment and management of children with idiopathic toe walking (ITW) in order to provide a benchmark for practitioners and guide the best consistent care. Methods. An established Delphi approach with predetermined steps and degree of agreement based on a standardized protocol was used to determine consensus. The steering group members and Delphi survey participants included members from the British Society of Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery (BSCOS) and the Association of Paediatric Chartered Physiotherapists (APCP). The statements included definition, assessment, treatment indications, nonoperative and operative interventions, and outcomes. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis of the Delphi survey results. The AGREE checklist was followed for reporting the results. Results. A total of 227 participants (54% APCP and 46% BSCOS members) completed the first round, and 222 participants (98%) completed the second round. Out of 54 proposed statements included in the first round Delphi, 17 reached ‘consensus in’, no statements reached ‘consensus out’, and 37 reached ‘no consensus’. These 37 statements were then discussed, reworded, amalgamated, or deleted before the second round Delphi of 29 statements. A total of 12 statements reached ‘consensus in’, four ‘consensus out’, and 13 ‘no consensus’. In the final consensus meeting, 13 statements were voted upon. Five were accepted, resulting in a total of 31 approved statements. Conclusion. In the aspects of practice where sufficient evidence is not available, a consensus statement can provide a strong body of opinion that acts as a benchmark for excellence in clinical care. This statement can assist clinicians managing children with ITW to ensure consistent and reliable practice, and reduce geographical variability in practice and outcomes. It will enable those treating ITW to share the published consensus document with both carers and patient groups. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1190–1196

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of a patient-specific algorithm which we developed for predicting changes in sagittal pelvic tilt after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. This retrospective study included 143 patients who underwent 171 THAs between April 2019 and October 2020 and had full-body lateral radiographs preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. We measured the pelvic incidence (PI), the sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt, sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), and thoracic kyphosis to classify patients into types A, B1, B2, B3, and C. The change of pelvic tilt was predicted according to the normal range of SVA (0 mm to 50 mm) for types A, B1, B2, and B3, and based on the absolute value of one-third of the PI-LL mismatch for type C patients. The reliability of the classification of the patients and the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were assessed using kappa values and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), respectively. Validity was assessed using the overall mean error and mean absolute error (MAE) for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt. Results. The kappa values were 0.927 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.861 to 0.992) and 0.945 (95% CI 0.903 to 0.988) for the inter- and intraobserver reliabilities, respectively, and the ICCs ranged from 0.919 to 0.997. The overall mean error and MAE for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were -0.3° (SD 3.6°) and 2.8° (SD 2.4°), respectively. The overall absolute change of pelvic tilt was 5.0° (SD 4.1°). Pre- and postoperative values and changes in pelvic tilt, SVA, SS, and LL varied significantly among the five types of patient. Conclusion. We found that the proposed algorithm was reliable and valid for predicting the standing pelvic tilt after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):19–27