Aims

The tibial component of total knee arthroplasty can either be an all-polyethylene (AP) implant or a metal-backed (MB) implant. This study aims to compare the five-year functional outcomes of AP tibial components to MB components in patients aged over 70 years. Secondary aims are to compare quality of life, implant survivorship, and cost-effectiveness.

Aims

The aim of this study was to describe and compare joint-specific and generic health-related quality of life outcomes of the first versus second knee in patients undergoing staged bilateral total knee arthroplasty (BTKA) for osteoarthritis.

Aims

Patient dissatisfaction is not uncommon following primary total knee arthroplasty. One proposed method to alleviate this is by improving knee kinematics. Therefore, we aimed to answer the following research question: are there significant differences in knee kinematics based on the design of the tibial insert (cruciate-retaining (CR), ultra-congruent (UC), or medial congruent (MC))?

Aims

This study aimed to identify the effect of anatomical tibial component (ATC) design on load distribution in the periprosthetic tibial bone of Koreans using finite element analysis (FEA).

Aims. With up to 40% of patients having patellofemoral joint osteoarthritis (PFJ OA), the two arthroplasty options are to replace solely the patellofemoral joint via patellofemoral arthroplasty (PFA), or the entire knee via total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aim of this study was to assess postoperative success of second-generation PFAs compared to TKAs for patients treated for PFJ OA using patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and domains deemed important by patients following a patient and public involvement meeting. Methods. MEDLINE, EMBASE via OVID, CINAHL, and EBSCO were searched from inception to January 2022. Any study addressing surgical treatment of primary patellofemoral joint OA using second generation PFA and TKA in patients aged above 18 years with follow-up data of 30 days were included. Studies relating to OA secondary to trauma were excluded. ROB-2 and ROBINS-I bias tools were used. Results. A total of nine studies were included, made up of four randomized controlled trials (domain 1) and five cohort studies (domain 2). PROMs and knee function specific scores developed for reporting TKA were unable to detect any difference between PFA and TKA. There was no significant difference in complications between PFA and TKA. PFAs were found to have a better postoperative range of motion. Conclusion. TKA and PFA are both viable options for patients with primary PFJ OA. Over time, we have seen an emphasis on patient satisfaction and better quality of life. Recommending sacrificing healthy medial and lateral compartments to treat patellofemoral joint arthritis should be given further thought. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(12):948–956

Aims. This study compared patient-reported outcomes of three total knee arthroplasty (TKA) designs from one manufacturer: one cruciate-retaining (CR) design, and two cruciate-sacrificing designs, anterior-stabilized (AS) and posterior-stabilized (PS). Methods. Patients scheduled for primary TKA were included in a single-centre, prospective, three-armed, blinded randomized trial (n = 216; 72 per group). After intraoperative confirmation of posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) integrity, patients were randomly allocated to receive a CR, AS, or PS design from the same TKA system. Insertion of an AS or PS design required PCL resection. The primary outcome was the mean score of all five subscales of the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) at two-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes included all KOOS subscales, Oxford Knee Score, EuroQol five-dimension health questionnaire, EuroQol visual analogue scale, range of motion (ROM), and willingness to undergo the operation again. Patient satisfaction was also assessed. Results. Patients reported similar levels of pain, function, satisfaction, and general health regardless of the prosthetic design they received. Mean maximal flexion (129° (95% confidence interval (CI) 127° to 131°) was greater in the PS group than in the CR (120° (95% CI 121° to 124°)) and AS groups (122° (95% CI 120° to 124°)). Conclusion. Despite differences in design and constraint, CR, AS, and PS designs from a single TKA system resulted in no differences in patient-reported outcomes at two-year follow-up. PS patients had statistically better ROM, but the clinical significance of this finding is unclear. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(12):1271–1278

Aims. The use of high tibial osteotomy (HTO) to delay total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in young patients with osteoarthritis (OA) and constitutional deformity remains debated. The aim of this study was to compare the long-term outcomes of TKA after HTO compared to TKA without HTO, using the time from the index OA surgery as reference (HTO for the study group, TKA for the control group). Methods. This was a case-control study of consecutive patients receiving a posterior-stabilized TKA for OA between 1996 and 2010 with previous HTO. A total of 73 TKAs after HTO with minimum ten years’ follow-up were included. Cases were matched with a TKA without previous HTO for age at the time of the HTO. All revisions were recorded. Kaplan-Meier survivorship analysis was performed using revision of metal component as the endpoint. The Knee Society Score, range of motion, and patient satisfaction were assessed. Results. Mean follow-up was 13 years (SD 3) after TKA in both groups. The 20-year Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was 98.6% in TKA post-HTO group (HTO as timing reference) and 81.4% in control group (TKA as timing reference) (p = 0.030). There was no significant difference in clinical outcomes, radiological outcomes, and complications at the last follow-up. Conclusion. At the same delay from index surgery (HTO or TKA), a strategy of HTO followed by TKA had superior knee survivorship compared to early TKA at long term in young patients. Level of evidence: III. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):62–71

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare a bicruciate-retaining (BCR) total knee arthroplasty (TKA) with a posterior cruciate-retaining (CR) TKA design in terms of kinematics, measured using fluoroscopy and stability as micromotion using radiostereometric analysis (RSA). Methods. A total of 40 patients with end-stage osteoarthritis were included in this randomized controlled trial. All patients performed a step-up and lunge task in front of a monoplane fluoroscope one year postoperatively. Femorotibial contact point (CP) locations were determined at every flexion angle and compared between the groups. RSA images were taken at baseline, six weeks, three, six, 12, and 24 months postoperatively. Clinical and functional outcomes were compared postoperatively for two years. Results. The BCR-TKA demonstrated a kinematic pattern comparable to the natural knee’s screw-home mechanism in the step-up task. In the lunge task, the medial CP of the BCR-TKA was more anterior in the early flexion phase, while laterally the CP was more posterior during the entire movement cycle. The BCR-TKA group showed higher tibial migration. No differences were found for the clinical and functional outcomes. Conclusion. The BCR-TKA shows a different kinematic pattern in early flexion/late extension compared to the CR-TKA. The difference between both implants is mostly visible in the flexion phase in which the anterior cruciate ligament is effective; however, both designs fail to fully replicate the motion of a natural knee. The higher migration of the BCR-TKA was concerning and highlights the importance of longer follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):35–46

Aims. We aimed to assess the reliability and validity of OpenPose, a posture estimation algorithm, for measurement of knee range of motion after total knee arthroplasty (TKA), in comparison to radiography and goniometry. Methods. In this prospective observational study, we analyzed 35 primary TKAs (24 patients) for knee osteoarthritis. We measured the knee angles in flexion and extension using OpenPose, radiography, and goniometry. We assessed the test-retest reliability of each method using intraclass correlation coefficient (1,1). We evaluated the ability to estimate other measurement values from the OpenPose value using linear regression analysis. We used intraclass correlation coefficients (2,1) and Bland–Altman analyses to evaluate the agreement and error between radiography and the other measurements. Results. OpenPose had excellent test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (1,1) = 1.000). The R. 2. of all regression models indicated large correlations (0.747 to 0.927). In the flexion position, the intraclass correlation coefficients (2,1) of OpenPose indicated excellent agreement (0.953) with radiography. In the extension position, the intraclass correlation coefficients (2,1) indicated good agreement of OpenPose and radiography (0.815) and moderate agreement of goniometry with radiography (0.593). OpenPose had no systematic error in the flexion position, and a 2.3° fixed error in the extension position, compared to radiography. Conclusion. OpenPose is a reliable and valid tool for measuring flexion and extension positions after TKA. It has better accuracy than goniometry, especially in the extension position. Accurate measurement values can be obtained with low error, high reproducibility, and no contact, independent of the examiner’s skills. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(5):313–320

Aims. Aseptic loosening is the most common cause of failure following cemented total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and has been linked to poor cementation technique. We aimed to develop a consensus on the optimal technique for component cementation in TKA. Methods. A UK-based, three-round, online modified Delphi Expert Consensus Study was completed focusing on cementation technique in TKA. Experts were identified as having a minimum of five years’ consultant experience in the NHS and fulfilling any one of the following criteria: a ‘high volume’ knee arthroplasty practice (> 150 TKAs per annum) as identified from the National joint Registry of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man; a senior author of at least five peer reviewed articles related to TKA in the previous five years; a surgeon who is named trainer for a post-certificate of comletion of training fellowship in TKA. Results. In total, 81 experts (round 1) and 80 experts (round 2 and 3) completed the Delphi Study. Four domains with a total of 24 statements were identified. 100% consensus was reached within the cement preparation, pressurization, and cement curing domains. 90% consensus was reached within the cement application domain. Consensus was not reached with only one statement regarding the handling of cement during initial application to the tibial and/or femoral bone surfaces. Conclusion. The Cementing Techniques In Knee Surgery (CeTIKS) Delphi consensus study presents comprehensive recommendations on the optimal technique for component cementing in TKA. Expert opinion has a place in the hierarchy of evidence and, until better evidence is available these recommendations should be considered when cementing a TKA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):682–688

Aims. While mechanical alignment (MA) is the traditional technique in total knee arthroplasty (TKA), its potential for altering constitutional alignment remains poorly understood. This study aimed to quantify unintentional changes to constitutional coronal alignment and joint line obliquity (JLO) resulting from MA. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken of 700 primary MA TKAs (643 patients) performed between 2014 and 2017. Lateral distal femoral and medial proximal tibial angles were measured pre- and postoperatively to calculate the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA), JLO, and Coronal Plane Alignment of the Knee (CPAK) phenotypes. The primary outcome was the magnitude and direction of aHKA, JLO, and CPAK alterations. Results. The mean aHKA and JLO increased by 0.1° (SD 3.4°) and 5.8° (SD 3.5°), respectively, from pre- to postoperatively. The most common phenotypes shifted from 76.3% CPAK Types I, II, or III (apex distal JLO) preoperatively to 85.0% IV, V, or VI (apex horizontal JLO) postoperatively. The proportion of knees with apex proximal JLO increased from 0.7% preoperatively to 11.1% postoperatively. Among all MA TKAs, 60.0% (420 knees) were changed from their constitutional alignments into CPAK Type V, while 40.0% (280 knees) either remained in constitutional Type V (5.0%, 35 knees) or were unintentionally aligned into other CPAK types (35.0%; 245 knees). Conclusion. Fixed MA targets in TKA lead to substantial changes from constitutional alignment, primarily a significant increase in JLO. These findings enhance our understanding of alignment alterations resulting from both unintended changes to knee phenotypes and surgical resection imprecision. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):109–116

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and patterns of neuropathic pain over one year in a cohort of patients with chronic post-surgical pain at three months following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Between 2016 and 2019, 363 patients with troublesome pain, defined as a score of ≤ 14 on the Oxford Knee Score pain subscale, three months after TKA from eight UK NHS hospitals, were recruited into the Support and Treatment After Replacement (STAR) clinical trial. Self-reported neuropathic pain and postoperative pain was assessed at three, nine, and 15 months after surgery using the painDETECT and Douleur Neuropathique 4 (DN4) questionnaires collected by postal survey. Results. Symptoms of neuropathic pain were common among patients reporting chronic pain at three months post-TKA, with half reporting neuropathic pain on painDETECT (191/363; 53%) and 74% (267/359) on DN4. Of those with neuropathic pain at three months, half continued to have symptoms over the next 12 months (148/262; 56%), one-quarter had improved (67/262; 26%), and for one-tenth their neuropathic symptoms fluctuated over time (24/262; 9%). However, a subgroup of participants reported new, late onset neuropathic symptoms (23/262; 9%). Prevalence of neuropathic symptoms was similar between the screening tools when the lower cut-off painDETECT score (≥ 13) was applied. Overall, mean neuropathic pain scores improved between three and 15 months after TKA. Conclusion. Neuropathic pain is common in patients with chronic pain at three months after TKA. Although neuropathic symptoms improved over time, up to half continued to report painful neuropathic symptoms at 15 months after TKA. Postoperative care should include screening, assessment, and treatment of neuropathic pain in patients with early chronic postoperative pain after TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):582–588

Aims. Distal femoral resection in conventional total knee arthroplasty (TKA) utilizes an intramedullary guide to determine coronal alignment, commonly planned for 5° of valgus. However, a standard 5° resection angle may contribute to malalignment in patients with variability in the femoral anatomical and mechanical axis angle. The purpose of the study was to leverage deep learning (DL) to measure the femoral mechanical-anatomical axis angle (FMAA) in a heterogeneous cohort. Methods. Patients with full-limb radiographs from the Osteoarthritis Initiative were included. A DL workflow was created to measure the FMAA and validated against human measurements. To reflect potential intramedullary guide placement during manual TKA, two different FMAAs were calculated either using a line approximating the entire diaphyseal shaft, and a line connecting the apex of the femoral intercondylar sulcus to the centre of the diaphysis. The proportion of FMAAs outside a range of 5.0° (SD 2.0°) was calculated for both definitions, and FMAA was compared using univariate analyses across sex, BMI, knee alignment, and femur length. Results. The algorithm measured 1,078 radiographs at a rate of 12.6 s/image (2,156 unique measurements in 3.8 hours). There was no significant difference or bias between reader and algorithm measurements for the FMAA (p = 0.130 to 0.563). The FMAA was 6.3° (SD 1.0°; 25% outside range of 5.0° (SD 2.0°)) using definition one and 4.6° (SD 1.3°; 13% outside range of 5.0° (SD 2.0°)) using definition two. Differences between males and females were observed using definition two (males more valgus; p < 0.001). Conclusion. We developed a rapid and accurate DL tool to quantify the FMAA. Considerable variation with different measurement approaches for the FMAA supports that patient-specific anatomy and surgeon-dependent technique must be accounted for when correcting for the FMAA using an intramedullary guide. The angle between the mechanical and anatomical axes of the femur fell outside the range of 5.0° (SD 2.0°) for nearly a quarter of patients. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):101–108

Aims. Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a common and safe orthopaedic procedure. Zimmer Biomet's NexGen is the second most popular brand of implant used in the UK. The primary cause of revision after the first year is aseptic loosening. We present our experience of using this implant, with significant concerns around its performance with regards early aseptic loosening of the tibial component. Methods. A retrospective, single-surgeon review was carried out of all of the NexGen Legacy Posterior Stabilized (LPS) TKAs performed in this institute. The specific model used for the index procedures was the NexGen Complete Knee System (Legacy Knee-Posterior Stabilized LPS-Flex Articular Surface, LPS-Flex Femoral Component Option, and Stemmed Nonaugmentable Tibial Component Option). Results. Between 2013 and 2016, 352 NexGen TKAs were carried out on 331 patients. A total of 62 TKAs have been revised to date, giving an all-cause revision rate of 17.6% at a minimum of five years. Three of these revisions were due to infection. Overall, 59 of the revisions were performed for aseptic loosening (16.7%) of the tibial component. The tibial component was removed intraoperatively without instrumentation due to significant tibial debonding between the implant-cement interface. Conclusion. While overall, we believe that early aseptic loosening is multi-factorial in nature, the significantly high aseptic revision rate, as seen by an experienced fellowship-trained arthroplasty surgeon, has led us to believe that there is a fundamental issue with this NexGen implant design. Continued implant surveillance and rigorous review across all regions using this particular implant is warranted based on the concerning findings described here. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(6):495–501

Aims. This prospective study reports longitudinal, within-patient, patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) over a 15-year period following cemented single radius total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Secondary aims included reporting PROMs trajectory, 15-year implant survival, and patient attrition from follow-up. Methods. From 2006 to 2007, 462 consecutive cemented cruciate-retaining Triathlon TKAs were implanted in 426 patients (mean age 69 years (21 to 89); 290 (62.7%) female). PROMs (12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12), Oxford Knee Score (OKS), and satisfaction) were assessed preoperatively and at one, five, ten, and 15 years. Kaplan-Meier survival and univariate analysis were performed. Results. At 15 years, 28 patients were lost to follow-up (6.1%) and 221 patients (51.9%) had died, with the mean age of the remaining cohort reducing by four years. PROMs response rates among surviving patients were: one-year 63%; five-year 72%; ten-year 94%; and 15-year 59%. OKS and SF-12 scores changed significantly over 15 years (p < 0.001). The mean improvement in OKS was 18.8 (95% confidence (CI) 16.7 to 19.0) at one year. OKS peaked at five years (median 43 years) declining thereafter (p < 0.001), though at 15 years it remained 17.5 better than preoperatively. Age and sex did not alter this trajectory. A quarter of patients experienced a clinically significant decline (≥ 7) in OKS from five to ten years and from ten to 15 years. The SF-12 physical component score displayed a similar trajectory, peaking at one year (p < 0.001). Patient satisfaction was 88% at one, five, and ten years, and 94% at 15 years. In all, 15-year Kaplan-Meier survival was 97.6% (95% CI 96.0% to 99.2%) for any revision, and 98.9% (95% CI 97.9% to 99.9%) for aseptic revision. Conclusion. Improvements in PROMs were significant and maintained following single radius TKA, with OKS peaking at five years, and generic physical health peaking at one year. Patient satisfaction remained high at 15 years, at which point 2.4% had been revised. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(10):808–816

Aims. Treatment of end-stage anteromedial osteoarthritis (AMOA) of the knee is commonly approached using one of two surgical strategies: medial unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). In this study we aim to investigate if there is any difference in outcome for patients undergoing UKA or TKA, when treated by high-volume surgeons, in high-volume centres, using two different clinical guidelines. The two strategies are ‘UKA whenever possible’ vs TKA for all patients with AMOA. Methods. A total of 501 consecutive AMOA patients (301 UKA) operated on between 2013 to 2016 in two high-volume centres were included. Centre One employed clinical guidelines for the treatment of AMOA allowing either UKA or TKA, but encouraged UKA wherever possible. Centre Two used clinical guidelines that treated all patients with a TKA, regardless of wear pattern. TKA patients were included if they had isolated AMOA on preoperative radiographs. Data were collected from both centres’ local databases. The primary outcome measure was change in Oxford Knee Score (OKS), and the proportion of patients achieving the patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) at one-year follow-up. The data were 1:1 propensity score matched before regression models were used to investigate potential differences. Results. The matched cohort included 400 patients (mean age 67 years (SD 9.55), 213 (53%) female, mean BMI 30.2 kg/m. 2. , 337 (84%) American Society of Anesthesiologists grade ≤ 2). We found a mean adjusted difference in change score of 3.02 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41 to 4.63; p < 0.001) and a significantly larger likeliness of achieving PASS (odds ratio 3.67 (95% CI 1.73 to 8.45); p = 0.001) both in favour of the UKA strategy. Conclusion. UKA and TKA are both good strategies for treating end-stage AMOA. However, when compared as a strategy, UKA achieved larger improvements in OKS, and were more likely to reach the PASS value at one-year follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(5):441–447

Aims. Micromotion of the polyethylene (PE) inlay may contribute to backside PE wear in addition to articulate wear of total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Using radiostereometric analysis (RSA) with tantalum beads in the PE inlay, we evaluated PE micromotion and its relationship to PE wear. Methods. A total of 23 patients with a mean age of 83 years (77 to 91), were available from a RSA study on cemented TKA with Maxim tibial components (Zimmer Biomet). PE inlay migration, PE wear, tibial component migration, and the anatomical knee axis were evaluated on weightbearing stereoradiographs. PE inlay wear was measured as the deepest penetration of the femoral component into the PE inlay. Results. At mean six years’ follow-up, the PE wear rate was 0.08 mm/year (95% confidence interval 0.06 to 0.09 mm/year). PE inlay external rotation was below the precision limit and did not influence PE wear. Varus knee alignment did not influence PE wear (p = 0.874), but increased tibial component total translation (p = 0.041). Conclusion. The PE inlay was well fixed and there was no relationship between PE stability and PE wear. The PE wear rate was low and similar in the medial and lateral compartments. Varus knee alignment did not influence PE wear. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(5):226–236

Aims. The purpose of this study was to compare the clinical outcomes, mortalities, implant survival rates, and complications of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in patients with or without hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection over at least ten years of follow-up. Methods. From January 2008 to December 2010, 266 TKAs were performed in 169 patients with HBV (HBV group). A total of 169 propensity score–matched patients without HBV were chosen for the control group in a one-to-one ratio. Then, the clinical outcomes, mortalities, implant survival rates, and complications of TKA in the two groups were compared. The mean follow-up periods were 11.7 years (10.5 to 13.4) in the HBV group and 11.8 years (11.5 to 12.4) in the control group. Results. The mean Knee Society scores in the HBV and control groups improved from 37.1 (SD 5.6) and 38.4 (SD 5.4) points preoperatively to 78.1 (SD 10.8) and 81.7 (SD 10.2) points at final follow-up (p = 0.314), while the mean function scores in the HBV and control groups improved from 36.2 and 37.3 points preoperatively to 77.8 and 83.2 points at final follow-up (p = 0.137). Nine knees in the HBV group required revision surgery, including seven due to septic loosening and two due to aseptic loosening. Four knees in the control group required revision surgery, including three due to septic loosening and one due to aseptic loosening. Kaplan–Meier survivorship analysis with the revision of either component as an endpoint in the HBV and control groups estimated 96.6% and 98.5% chances of survival for ten years, respectively (p = 0.160). Conclusion. TKA in patients with HBV infection resulted in good clinical outcomes and survivorship. However, there was a higher revision rate over a minimum ten-year follow-up period compared to TKA in patients without HBV infection. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(6):470–474

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate the 90-day periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) rates following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis (OA). Methods. This was a data linkage study using the New South Wales (NSW) Admitted Patient Data Collection (APDC) and the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR), which collect data from all public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia. Patients who underwent a TKA or THA for OA between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2017 were included. The main outcome measures were 90-day incidence rates of hospital readmission for: revision arthroplasty for PJI as recorded in the AOANJRR; conservative definition of PJI, defined by T84.5, the PJI diagnosis code in the APDC; and extended definition of PJI, defined by the presence of either T84.5, or combinations of diagnosis and procedure code groups derived from recursive binary partitioning in the APDC. Results. The mean 90-day revision rate for infection was 0.1% (0.1% to 0.2%) for TKA and 0.3% (0.1% to 0.5%) for THA. The mean 90-day PJI rates defined by T84.5 were 1.3% (1.1% to 1.7%) for TKA and 1.1% (0.8% to 1.3%) for THA. The mean 90-day PJI rates using the extended definition were 1.9% (1.5% to 2.2%) and 1.5% (1.3% to 1.7%) following TKA and THA, respectively. Conclusion. When reporting the revision arthroplasty for infection, the AOANJRR substantially underestimates the rate of PJI at 90 days. Using combinations of infection codes and PJI-related surgical procedure codes in linked hospital administrative databases could be an alternative way to monitor PJI rates. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(9):1060–1066

Aims. Waiting times for arthroplasty surgery in Northern Ireland are among the longest in the NHS, which have been further lengthened by the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic in March 2020. The Department of Health in Northern Ireland has announced a new Elective Care Framework (ECF), with the framework proposing that by March 2026 no patient will wait more than 52 weeks for inpatient/day case treatment. We aimed to assess the feasibility of achieving this with reference to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Mathematical modelling was undertaken to calculate when the ECF targets will be achieved for THA and TKA, as well as the time when waiting lists for THA and TKA will be cleared. The number of patients currently on the waiting list and percentage operating capacity relative to pre-COVID-19 capacity was used to determine future projections. Results. As of May 2021, there were 3,757 patients awaiting primary THA and 4,469 patients awaiting primary TKA in Northern Ireland. Prior to April 2020, there were a mean 2,346 (2,085 to 2,610) patients per annum boarded for primary THA, a mean 2,514 (2,494 to 2,514) patients per annum boarded for primary TKA, and there were a mean 1,554 primary THAs and 1,518 primary TKAs performed per annum. The ECF targets for THA will only be achieved in 2030 if operating capacity is 200% of pre COVID-19 pandemic capacity and in 2042 if capacity is 170%. For TKA, the targets will be met in 2034 if capacity is 200% of pre-COVID-19 pandemic capacity. Conclusion. This modelling demonstrates that, in the absence of major funding and reorganization of elective orthopaedic care, the targets set out in the ECF will not be achieved with regard to THA and TKA. Waiting times for THA and TKA surgery in Northern Ireland are likely to remain greater than 52 weeks for most of this decade. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):302–306