Abstract
Recent debate about changing population demographics and growing demands of younger patients has suggested a future explosion in the requirements for primary and revision lower limb arthroplasty (TKA/THA). This could represent a significant challenge for healthcare providers. This study aimed to predict the demands for lower limb arthroplasty in Scotland from 2010–2035.
Population figures (2004–2010) and projected population data (five year increments) were obtained from the National Records of Scotland. The numbers of arthroplasties from 2004–2010 were provided by the Scottish Arthroplasty Project. Data were divided into three age groups (40–69, 60–79, 80+). The first model used mean incidence for each age group from 2006–2010 applied to the projected population figures. The second used linear regression to give predicted incidences 2015–2035 which were then applied to the projected population. The third-for revisions – used incidence per number of primary arthroplasties.
For primary TKA model 1, comparing to 2010, showed demand increasing by 10% in 2020 and by 31% (to 8,650 procedures) in 2035. Model 2 gave increases of 60% and 161% respectively. An increase was found across all age groups with 60–79 more than doubling and 80+ increasing fourfold by 2035 (model 2). The revision TKA models predicted between 670 and 2,000 procedures by 2035. For primary THA models 1 and 2 showed demand increasing by 40% in 2020 and then by 60% and 110% (11,000 and 14,500 procedures) in 2035 respectively. All age groups had increasing demand with 60–79 doubling and 80+ tripling by 2035 (model 2). The revision THA models predicted between 1,300 and 2,100 procedures by 2035.
These projections show large increases in the numbers of both primaries and revisions over the next two decades. They highlight that current resources may be insufficient or the selection criteria for surgery may need to be revisited.
