Abstract
Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is the most commonly performed elective orthopaedic procedure. With an increasingly aging population, the number of TKAs performed is expected to be ∼2,900 per 100,000 by 2050. Surgical Site Infections (SSI) after TKA can have significant morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to construct a risk prediction model for acute SSI (classified as either superficial, deep and overall) within 30 days of a TKA based on commonly ordered pre-operative blood markers and using audited administrative data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database.
All adult patients undergoing an elective unilateral TKA for osteoarthritis from 2011–2016 were identified from the NSQIP database using Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. Patients with active or chronic, local or systemic infection/sepsis or disseminated cancer were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to estimate coefficients, with manual stepwise reduction to construct models. Bootstrap estimation was administered to measure internal validity. The SSI prediction model included the following co-variates: body mass index (BMI) and sex, comorbidities such as congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), smoking, current/previous steroid use, as well as pre-operative blood markers, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, hematocrit, international normalized ratio (INR), platelets, prothrombin time (PT), sodium and white blood cell (WBC) levels. To compare clinical models, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and McFadden's R-squared values were reported.
The total number of patients undergoing TKA were 210,524 with a median age of 67 years (mean age of 66.6 + 9.6 years) and the majority being females (61.9%, N=130,314). A total of 1,674 patients (0.8%) had a SSI within 30 days of the index TKA, of which N=546 patients (33.2%) had a deep SSI and N=1,128 patients (67.4%) had a superficial SSI. The annual incidence rate of overall SSI decreased from 1.60% in 2011 to 0.68% in 2016. The final risk prediction model for SSI contained, smoking (OR=1.69, 95% CI: 1.31 – 2.18), previous/current steroid use (OR=1.66, 95% CI: 1.23 – 2.23), as well as the pre-operative lab markers, albumin (OR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.37 – 0.56), blood urea nitrogen (BUN, OR=1.01, 95% CI: 1 – 1.02), international normalized ratio (INR, OR=1.22, 95% CI:1.05 – 1.41), and sodium levels (OR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.91 – 0.98;). Area under the ROC curve for the final model of overall SSI was 0.64. Models for deep and superficial SSI had ROC areas of 0.68 and 0.63, respectively. Albumin (OR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.37 – 0.56, OR=0.33, 95% CI: 0.27 – 0.40, OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.59 – 0.95) and sodium levels (OR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.91 – 0.98, OR=0.96, 95% CI: 0.93 – 0.99, OR=0.97, 95% CI: 0.96 – 0.99) levels were consistently significant in all prediction models for superficial, deep and overall SSI, respectively. Overall, hypoalbuminemia and hyponatremia are both significant risk factors for superficial, deep and overall SSI.
To our knowledge, this is the first prediction model for acute SSI post TKA whereby hyponatremia (and hypoalbuminemia) are predictive of SSI. This prediction model can help fill an important gap for predicting risk factors for SSI after TKA and can help physicians better optimize patients prior to TKA.
