Abstract
Advances in cancer therapy have prolonged cancer patient survival even in the presence of disseminated disease and an increasing number of cancer patients are living with metastatic bone disease (MBD). The proximal femur is the most common long bone involved in MBD and pathologic fractures of the femur are associated with significant morbidity, mortality and loss of quality of life (QoL).
Successful prophylactic surgery for an impending fracture of the proximal femur has been shown in multiple cohort studies to result in patients more likely to walk after surgery, longer survival, lower transfusion rates and shorter post-operative hospital stays. However, there is currently no optimal method to predict a pathologic fracture. The most well-known tool is Mirel's criteria, established in 1989 and is limited from guiding clinical practice due to poor specificity and sensitivity. The goal of our study is to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict fracture risk when metastatic bone disease is present in the proximal femur.
Our fracture risk prediction tool was developed by analysis of prospectively collected data for MBD patients (2009–2016) in order to determine which features are most commonly associated with fracture. Patients with primary bone tumors, pathologic fractures at initial presentation, and hematologic malignancies were excluded. A total of 1146 patients comprising 224 pathologic fractures were included. Every patient had at least one Anterior-Posterior X-ray. The clinical data includes patient demographics, tumor biology, all previous radiation and chemotherapy received, multiple pain and function scores, medications and time to fracture or time to death. Each of Mirel's criteria has been further subdivided and recorded for each lesion.
We have trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) with X-ray images of 1146 patients with metastatic bone disease of the proximal femur. The digital X-ray data is converted into a matrix representing the color information at each pixel. Our CNN contains five convolutional layers, a fully connected layers of 512 units and a final output layer. As the information passes through successive levels of the network, higher level features are abstracted from the data. This model converges on two fully connected deep neural network layers that output the fracture risk. This prediction is compared to the true outcome, and any errors are back-propagated through the network to accordingly adjust the weights between connections. Methods to improve learning included using stochastic gradient descent with a learning rate of 0.01 and a momentum rate of 0.9.
We used average classification accuracy and the average F1 score across test sets to measure model performance. We compute F1 = 2 x (precision x recall)/(precision + recall). F1 is a measure of a test's accuracy in binary classification, in our case, whether a lesion would result in pathologic fracture or not. Five-fold cross validation testing of our fully trained model revealed accurate classification for 88.2% of patients with metastatic bone disease of the proximal femur. The F1 statistic is 0.87. This represents a 24% error reduction from using Mirel's criteria alone to classify the risk of fracture in this cohort.
This is the first reported application of convolutional neural networks, a machine learning algorithm, to an important Orthopaedic problem. Our neural network model was able to achieve impressive accuracy in classifying fracture risk of metastatic proximal femur lesions from analysis of X-rays and clinical information. Our future work will aim to validate this algorithm on an external cohort.
