MULTIPLIER METHOD FOR HEIGHT PREDICTION

Abstract

Introduction and Aims: We propose a new, simple, and universal method to predict adult height: the Height Multiplier Method. Our aim was to calculate height multipliers from various databases and validate their use for height prediction.

Method: Standard growth charts, based on a diverse population, were published by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2000. Height multipliers (M) for boys and girls were calculated by dividing the height at skeletal maturity (Htm) by the present height (Ht) (M = Htm/Ht) for each age, gender, and height percentile using CDC data. These multipliers were compared with multipliers derived from various height databases of 28 boys and 24 girls. The accuracy of the multipliers was tested on individual longitudinal data sets from 52 normal children.

Results: The average CDC-derived multipliers were significantly different at each age for boys and girls, but within gender, different percentiles at each age were very similar. These multipliers were very similar to multipliers derived from each of the databases. For predictions based on individual data sets from 52 children, the median, 90%, and standard deviation of absolute error prediction (AEP) were calculated. Boys’ median AEP ranged from 1.4–4.3cm; 90% AEP ranged from 1.8–8.3cm. Girls’ median AEP ranged from 0.68–4.38cm; 90% AEP ranged from 1.5–10.6cm.

Conclusion: The Height Multiplier Method of stature prediction is as accurate as CDC growth charts when based on single-height measurements and is similar in accuracy to other methods. The Height Multiplier Method has the advantage of percentile, race, nationality, and generation independence. Growth charts have the advantage of showing trends over time.