Aims

Identifying predictors of compartment syndrome in the foot after a fracture of the calcaneus may lead to earlier diagnosis and treatment. The aim of our study was to identify any such predictors.

We report the general mortality rate after total knee replacement and identify independent predictors of survival. We studied 2428 patients: there were 1127 men (46%) and 1301 (54%) women with a mean age of 69.3 years (28 to 94). Patients were allocated a predicted life expectancy based on their age and gender.

There were 223 deaths during the study period. This represented an overall survivorship of 99% (95% confidence interval (CI) 98 to 99) at one year, 90% (95% CI 89 to 92) at five years, and 84% (95% CI 82 to 86) at ten years. There was no difference in survival by gender. A greater mortality rate was associated with increasing age (p < 0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade (p < 0.001), smoking (p < 0.001), body mass index (BMI) <  20 kg/m² (p < 0.001) and rheumatoid arthritis (p < 0.001). Multivariate modelling confirmed the independent effect of age, ASA grade, BMI, and rheumatoid disease on mortality. Based on the predicted average mortality, 114 patients were predicted to have died, whereas 217 actually died. This resulted in an overall excess standardised mortality ratio of 1.90. Patient mortality after TKR is predicted by their demographics: these could be used to assign an individual mortality risk after surgery.

A prospective study was performed to develop a clinical prediction rule that incorporated demographic and clinical factors predictive of a fracture of the scaphoid. Of 260 consecutive patients with a clinically suspected or radiologically confirmed scaphoid fracture, 223 returned for evaluation two weeks after injury and formed the basis of our analysis. Patients were evaluated within 72 hours of injury and at approximately two and six weeks after injury using clinical assessment and standard radiographs. Demographic data and the results of seven specific tests in the clinical examination were recorded.

There were 116 (52%) men and their mean age was 33 years (13 to 95; sd 17.9). In 62 patients (28%) a scaphoid fracture was confirmed. A logistic regression model identified male gender (p = 0.002), sports injury (p = 0.004), anatomical snuff box pain on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury (p < 0.001), and scaphoid tubercle tenderness at two weeks (p < 0.001) as independent predictors of fracture. All patients with no pain at the anatomical snuff box on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury did not have a fracture (n = 72, 32%). With four independently significant factors positive, the risk of fracture was 91%.

Our study has demonstrated that clinical prediction rules have a considerable influence on the probability of a suspected scaphoid fracture. This will help improve the use of supplementary investigations where the diagnosis remains in doubt.

A prospective cohort of 222 patients who underwent revision hip replacement between April 2001 and March 2004 was evaluated to determine predictors of function, pain and activity level between one and two years post-operatively, and to define quality of life outcomes using validated patient reported outcome tools. Predictive models were developed and proportional odds regression analyses were performed to identify factors that predict quality of life outcomes at one and two years post-operatively. The dependent outcome variables were the Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) function and pain scores, and University of California Los Angeles activity scores. The independent variables included patient demographics, operative factors, and objective quality of life parameters, including pre-operative WOMAC, and the Short Form-12 mental component score. There was a significant improvement (t-test, p < 0.001) in all patient quality of life scores. In the predictive model, factors predictive of improved function (original regression analyses, p < 0.05) included a higher pre-operative WOMAC function score (p < 0.001), age between 60 and 70 years (p < 0.037), male gender (p = 0.017), lower Charnley class (p < 0.001) and aseptic loosening being the indication for revision (p < 0.003). Using the WOMAC pain score as an outcome variable, factors predictive of improvement included the pre-operative WOMAC function score (p = 0.001), age between 60 and 70 years (p = 0.004), male gender (p = 0.005), lower Charnley class (p = 0.001) and no previous revision procedure (p = 0.023). The pre-operative WOMAC function score (p = 0.001), the indication for the operation (p = 0.007), and the operating surgeon (p = 0.008) were significant predictors of the activity assessment at follow-up. Predictors of quality of life outcomes after revision hip replacement were established. Although some patient-specific and surgery-specific variables were important, age, gender, Charnley class and pre-operative WOMAC function score had the most robust associations with outcome

Aims

Surgical reconstruction of deformed Charcot feet carries a high risk of nonunion, metalwork failure, and deformity recurrence. The primary aim of this study was to identify the factors contributing to these complications following hindfoot Charcot reconstructions.

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to assess if traumatic triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) tears can be treated successfully with immobilization alone. Our secondary aims were to identify clinical factors that may predict a poor prognosis.

Aims

Historically, patients undergoing surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have been nursed postoperatively in a critical care (CC) setting because of the challenges posed by prone positioning, extensive exposures, prolonged operating times, significant blood loss, major intraoperative fluid shifts, cardiopulmonary complications, and difficulty in postoperative pain management. The primary aim of this paper was to determine whether a scoring system, which uses Cobb angle, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and number of levels to be fused, is a valid method of predicting the need for postoperative critical care in AIS patients who are to undergo scoliosis correction with posterior spinal fusion (PSF).

Aims

Repeated lumbar spine surgery has been associated with inferior clinical outcomes. This study aimed to examine and quantify the impact of this association in a national clinical register cohort.

Aims

With novel promising therapies potentially limiting progression of Dupuytren’s disease (DD), better patient stratification is needed. We aimed to quantify DD development and progression after seven years in a population-based cohort, and to identify factors predictive of disease development or progression.

Aims

The primary aim was to assess the independent influence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on 30-day mortality for patients with a hip fracture. The secondary aims were to determine whether: 1) there were clinical predictors of COVID-19 status; and 2) whether social lockdown influenced the incidence and epidemiology of hip fractures.

Aims

Fracture of the odontoid process (OP) in the elderly is associated with mortality rates similar to those of hip fracture. The aim of this study was to identify variables that predict mortality in patients with a fracture of the OP, and to assess whether established hip fracture scoring systems such as the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) or Sernbo Score might also be used as predictors of mortality in these patients.

Aims

The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow.

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to address the hypothesis that fracture morphology might be more important than posterior malleolar fragment size in rotational type posterior malleolar ankle fractures (PMAFs). The secondary aim was to identify clinically important predictors of outcome for each respective PMAF-type, to challenge the current dogma that surgical decision-making should be based on fragment size.

We undertook a retrospective cohort study to determine clinical outcomes following the revision of metal-on-metal (MoM) hip replacements for adverse reaction to metal debris (ARMD), and to identify predictors of time to revision and outcomes following revision. Between 1998 and 2012 a total of 64 MoM hips (mean age at revision of 57.8 years; 46 (72%) female; 46 (72%) hip resurfacings and 18 (28%) total hip replacements) were revised for ARMD at one specialist centre. At a mean follow-up of 4.5 years (1.0 to 14.6) from revision for ARMD there were 13 hips (20.3%) with post-operative complications and eight (12.5%) requiring re-revision.

The Kaplan–Meier five-year survival rate for ARMD revision was 87.9% (95% confidence interval 78.9 to 98.0; 19 hips at risk). Excluding re-revisions, the median absolute Oxford hip score (OHS) following ARMD revision using the percentage method (0% best outcome and 100% worst outcome) was 18.8% (interquartile range (IQR) 7.8% to 48.3%), which is equivalent to 39/48 (IQR 24.8/48 to 44.3/48) when using the modified OHS. Histopathological response did not affect time to revision for ARMD (p = 0.334) or the subsequent risk of re-revision (p = 0.879). Similarly, the presence or absence of a contralateral MoM hip bearing did not affect time to revision for ARMD (p = 0.066) or the subsequent risk of re-revision (p = 0.178).

Patients revised to MoM bearings had higher rates of re-revision (five of 16 MoM hips re-revised; p = 0.046), but those not requiring re-revision had good functional results (median absolute OHS 14.6% or 41.0/48). Short-term morbidity following revision for ARMD was comparable with previous reports. Caution should be exercised when choosing bearing surfaces for ARMD revisions.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1600–9.

Aims

Rates of mortality as high as 25% to 30% have been described following fractures of the odontoid in the elderly population. The aim of this study was to examine whether easily identifiable variables present on admission are associated with mortality.

The purpose of this study was to identify factors that predict implant cut-out after cephalomedullary nailing of intertrochanteric and subtrochanteric hip fractures, and to test the significance of calcar referenced tip-apex distance (CalTAD) as a predictor for cut-out.

We retrospectively reviewed 170 consecutive fractures that had undergone cephalomedullary nailing. Of these, 77 met the inclusion criteria of a non-pathological fracture with a minimum of 80 days radiological follow-up (mean 408 days; 81 days to 4.9 years). The overall cut-out rate was 13% (10/77).

The significant parameters in the univariate analysis were tip-apex distance (TAD) (p <  0.001), CalTAD (p = 0.001), cervical angle difference (p = 0.004), and lag screw placement in the anteroposterior (AP) view (Parker’s ratio index) (p = 0.003). Non-significant parameters were age (p = 0.325), gender (p = 1.000), fracture side (p = 0.507), fracture type (AO classification) (p = 0.381), Singh Osteoporosis Index (p = 0.575), lag screw placement in the lateral view (p = 0.123), and reduction quality (modified Baumgaertner’s method) (p = 0.575). In the multivariate analysis, CalTAD was the only significant measurement (p = 0.001). CalTAD had almost perfect inter-observer reliability (interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.901).

Our data provide the first reported clinical evidence that CalTAD is a predictor of cut-out. The finding of CalTAD as the only significant parameter in the multivariate analysis, along with the univariate significance of Parker’s ratio index in the AP view, suggest that inferior placement of the lag screw is preferable to reduce the rate of cut-out.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014; 96-B:1029–34.

Although the association between femoroacetabular impingement and osteoarthritis is established, it is not yet clear which hips have the greatest likelihood to progress rapidly to end-stage disease. We investigated the effect of several radiological parameters, each indicative of a structural aspect of the hip joint, on the progression of osteoarthritis. Pairs of plain anteroposterior pelvic radiographs, taken at least ten years apart, of 43 patients (43 hips) with a pistol-grip deformity of the femur and mild (Tönnis grade 1) or moderate (Tönnis grade 2) osteoarthritis were reviewed. Of the 43 hips, 28 showed evidence of progression of osteoarthritis. There was no significant difference in the prevalence of progression between hips with initial Tönnis grade 1 or grade 2 osteoarthritis (p = 0.31). Comparison of the hips with and without progression of arthritis revealed a significant difference in the mean medial proximal femoral angle (81° vs 87°, p = 0.004) and the presence of the posterior wall sign (39% vs 7%, p = 0.02) only. A logistic regression model was constructed to predict the influence of these two variables in the development of osteoarthritis.

Mild to moderate osteoarthritis in hips with a pistol-grip deformity will not progress rapidly in all patients. In one-third, progression will take more than ten years to manifest, if ever. The individual geometry of the proximal femur and acetabulum partly influences this phenomenon. A hip with cam impingement is not always destined for end-stage arthritic degeneration.

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to assess whether the postoperative Oxford Knee Score (OKS) demonstrated a ceiling effect at one and/or two years after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The secondary aim was to identify preoperative independent predictors for patients that achieved a ceiling score after TKA.

We aimed to identify variables associated with clinical and radiological outcome following fractures of the acetabulum associated with posterior dislocation of the hip. Using a prospective database of 1076 such fractures, we identified 109 patients with this combined injury managed operatively within three weeks and followed up for two or more years. The patients had a mean age of 42 years (15 to 79), 78 (72%) were male, and 84 (77%) had been involved in motor vehicle accidents. Using multivariate analysis the quality of reduction of the fracture was identified as the only significant predictor of radiological grade, clinical function and the development of post-traumatic arthritis (p < 0.001). All patients lacking anatomical reduction developed arthritis whereas only 25.5% (24 patients) with an anatomical reduction did so (p = 0.05).

The quality of the reduction of the fracture is the most important variable in forecasting the outcome for patients with this injury. The interval to reduction of the dislocation of the hip may be less important than previously described.

Aims

Single event multilevel surgery (SEMLS) has been shown to improve gait in children with cerebral palsy (CP). However, there is limited evidence regarding long-term outcomes and factors influencing them.