Aims. The purpose of this study was to assess the reliability and responsiveness to hip surgery of a four-point modified Care and Comfort Hypertonicity Questionnaire (mCCHQ) scoring tool in children with cerebral palsy (CP) in Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels IV and V. Methods. This was a population-based cohort study in children with CP from a national surveillance programme. Reliability was assessed from 20 caregivers who completed the mCCHQ questionnaire on two occasions three weeks apart. Test-retest reliability of the mCCHQ was calculated, and responsiveness before and after surgery for a displaced hip was evaluated in a cohort of children. Results. Test-retest reliability for the overall mCCHQ score was good (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.78), and no dimension demonstrated poor reliability. The surgical intervention cohort comprised ten children who had preoperative and postoperative mCCHQ scores at a minimum of six months postoperatively. The mCCHQ tool demonstrated a significant improvement in overall score from preoperative assessment to six-month postoperative follow-up assessment (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The mCCHQ demonstrated responsiveness to intervention and good test-retest reliability. The mCCHQ is proposed as an outcome tool for use within a national surveillance programme for children with CP. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):580–583

Aims. Early detection of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is associated with improved outcomes of conservative treatment. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate a novel screening programme that included both the primary risk factors of breech presentation and family history, and the secondary risk factors of oligohydramnios and foot deformities. Methods. A five-year prospective registry study investigating every live birth in the study’s catchment area (n = 27,731), all of whom underwent screening for risk factors and examination at the newborn and six- to eight-week neonatal examination and review. DDH was diagnosed using ultrasonography and the Graf classification system, defined as grade IIb or above or rapidly regressing IIa disease (≥4. o. at four weeks follow-up). Multivariate odds ratios were calculated to establish significant association, and risk differences were calculated to provide quantifiable risk increase with DDH, positive predictive value was used as a measure of predictive efficacy. The cost-effectiveness of using these risk factors to predict DDH was evaluated using NHS tariffs (January 2021). Results. The prevalence of DDH that required treatment within our population was 5/1,000 live births. The rate of missed presentation of DDH was 0.43/1000 live births. Breech position, family history, oligohydramnios, and foot deformities demonstrated significant association with DDH (p < 0.0001). The presence of breech presentation increased the risk of DDH by 1.69% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93% to 2.45%), family history by 3.57% (95% CI 2.06% to 5.09%), foot deformities by 8.95% (95% CI 4.81% to 13.1%), and oligohydramnios nby 11.6% (95 % CI 3.0% to 19.0%). Primary risk factors family history and breech presentation demonstrated an estimated cost-per-case detection of £6,276 and £11,409, respectively. Oligohydramnios and foot deformities demonstrated a cost-per-case detected less than the cost of primary risk factors of £2,260 and £2,670, respectively. Conclusion. The inclusion of secondary risk factors within a national screening programme was clinically successful as they were more cost and resource-efficient predictors of DDH than primary risk factors, suggesting they should be considered in the national guidance. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):234–240

Aims. The Uppföljningsprogram för cerebral pares (CPUP) Hip Score distinguishes between children with cerebral palsy (CP) at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score was constructed using data from Swedish children with CP, but has not been confirmed in any other population. The aim of this study was to determine the calibration and discriminatory accuracy of this score in children with CP in Scotland. Methods. This was a total population-based study of children registered with the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland. Displacement of the hip was defined as a migration percentage (MP) of > 40%. Inclusion criteria were children in Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels III to V. The calibration slope was estimated and Kaplan-Meier curves produced for five strata of CPUP scores to compare the observed with the predicted risk of displacement of the hip at five years. For discriminatory accuracy, the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated. In order to analyze differences in the performance of the score between cohorts, score weights, and subsequently the AUC, were re-estimated using the variables of the original score: the child’s age at the first examination, GMFCS level, head shaft angle, and MP of the worst hip in a logistic regression with imputation of outcomes for those with incomplete follow-up. Results. The discriminatory accuracy of the score in the new population of 367 children was high (AUC 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 0.86)). The calibration of the score was insufficient (slope 0.48 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.65)), and the absolute risks of displacement of the hip in this population were overestimated. The AUC increased with re-estimated weights (0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91)). Conclusion. The CPUP Hip Score had a high ability to discriminate between children at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score overestimated the absolute risks of displacement in this population, which may have resulted from differences in the way children were initially registered in the two programmes. The results are promising, but the score weights may need re-estimation before its clinical application in Scotland. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):640–644

Aims. Hip displacement, common in patients with cerebral palsy (CP), causes pain and hinders adequate care. Hip reconstructive surgery (HRS) is performed to treat hip displacement; however, only a few studies have quantitatively assessed femoral head sphericity after HRS. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess improvement in hip sphericity after HRS in patients with CP. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed hip radiographs of patients who had undergone HRS because of CP-associated hip displacement. The pre- and postoperative migration percentage (MP), femoral neck-shaft angle (NSA), and sphericity, as determined by the Mose hip ratio (MHR), age at surgery, Gross Motor Function Classification System level, surgical history including Dega pelvic osteotomy, and triradiate cartilage status were studied. Regression analyses using linear mixed model were performed to identify factors affecting hip sphericity improvement. Results. A total of 108 patients were enrolled. The mean preoperative MP was 58.3% (SD 31.7%), which improved to 9.1% (SD 15.6%) at the last follow-up. NSA and MHR improved from 156.5° (SD 11.5°) and 82.3% (SD 8.6%) to 126.0° (SD 18.5°) and 89.1% (SD 9.0%), respectively. Factors affecting the postoperative MHR were preoperative MP (p = 0.005), immediate postoperative MP (p = 0.032), and history of Dega osteotomy (p = 0.046). Conclusion. We found that hip sphericity improves with HRS. Preoperative MP, reduction quality, and acetabular coverage influence femoral head remodelling. We recommend that surgeons should consider intervention early before hip displacement progresses and that during HRS, definite reduction and coverage of the femoral head should be obtained. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):198–203

Aims. The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence of hip displacement and dislocation in a total population of children with cerebral palsy (CP) in Scotland before and after the initiation of a hip surveillance programme. Patients. A total of 2,155 children with CP are registered in the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland (CPIPS) surveillance programme, which began in 2013. Physical examination and hip radiological data are collected according to nationally agreed protocols. Methods. Age, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level, subtype of CP, migration percentage (MP), and details of hip surgery were analyzed for all children aged between two and 16 years taken from a time of census in March 2019 and compared to the same data from the initial registration of children in the CPIPS. Displacement of the hip was defined as a MP of between 40% and 99%, and dislocation as a MP of 100%. Results. A total of 1,646 children were available for analysis at the time of the census and 1,171 at their first registration in CPIPS. The distribution of age, sex, and GMFCS levels were similar in the two groups. The prevalence of displacement and dislocation of the hip before surveillance began were 10% (117/1,171) and 2.5% (29/1,171) respectively, and at the time of the census were 4.5% (74/1,646) and 1.3% (21/1,646), respectively. Dislocation was only seen in GMFCS levels IV and V and displacement seen in 90.5% (67/74) of these levels and 9.5% (7/74) in levels I to III. In total, 138 children had undergone hip surgery during the study period. The hip redisplaced after the initial surgery in 15 children; seven of these had undergone a second procedure and at the time of the census the hips in all seven had a MP < 40. Conclusion. Hip surveillance appears to be effective and has reduced the prevalence of hip displacement by over half and dislocation almost by half in these children. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(3):383–387

There is much debate about the nature and extent of deformities in the proximal femur in children with cerebral palsy. Most authorities accept that increased femoral anteversion is common, but its incidence, severity and clinical significance are less clear. Coxa valga is more controversial and many authorities state that it is a radiological artefact rather than a true deformity. We measured femoral anteversion clinically and the neck-shaft angle radiologically in 292 children with cerebral palsy. This represented 78% of a large, population-based cohort of children with cerebral palsy which included all motor types, topographical distributions and functional levels as determined by the gross motor function classification system. The mean femoral neck anteversion was 36.5° (11° to 67.5°) and the mean neck-shaft angle 147.5° (130° to 178°). These were both increased compared with values in normally developing children. The mean femoral neck anteversion was 30.4° (11° to 50°) at gross motor function classification system level I, 35.5° (8° to 65°) at level II and then plateaued at approximately 40.0° (25° to 67.5°) at levels III, IV and V. The mean neck-shaft angle increased in a step-wise manner from 135.9° (130° to 145°) at gross motor function classification system level I to 163.0° (151° to 178°) at level V. The migration percentage increased in a similar pattern and was closely related to femoral deformity. Based on these findings we believe that displacement of the hip in patients with cerebral palsy can be explained mainly by the abnormal shape of the proximal femur, as a result of delayed walking, limited walking or inability to walk. This has clinical implications for the management of hip displacement in children with cerebral palsy

We have assessed the reliability of four classification systems for club foot. Four observers evaluated nine children (18 feet) at different stages in the first six months of life, a total of 180 examinations. Each observer independently assessed all feet according to the classification systems described by Catterall, Diméglio et al, Harrold and Walker, and Ponseti and Smoley. The variation between observers was assessed using the kappa test which for no more agreement than chance has a value of 0, and for complete agreement between observers a value of 1. The kappa values varied between 0.14 and 0.77 depending on which classification system was used. The system of Diméglio et al was found to have the greatest reliability. Our findings suggest that current classification systems for the analysis of congenital talipes equinovarus are not entirely satisfactory

Aims

The aim of this study was to investigate the agreement in interpretation of the quality of the paediatric hip ultrasound examination, the reliability of geometric and morphological assessment, and the relationship between these measurements.

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Children with spinal dysraphism can develop various musculoskeletal deformities, necessitating a range of orthopaedic interventions, causing significant morbidity, and making considerable demands on resources. This systematic review aimed to identify what outcome measures have been reported in the literature for children with spinal dysraphism who undergo orthopaedic interventions involving the lower limbs.

Aims. Single event multilevel surgery (SEMLS) has been shown to improve gait in children with cerebral palsy (CP). However, there is limited evidence regarding long-term outcomes and factors influencing them. . Methods. In total 39 children (17 females and 22 males; mean age at SEMLS ten years four months, standard deviation 37 months) with bilateral CP (20 Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level II and 19 GMFCS level III) treated with SEMLS were included. Children were evaluated using gait analysis and the Gait Deviation Index (GDI) before SEMLS and one, two to three, five and at least ten years after SEMLS. A linear mixed model was used to estimate the effect of age at the surgery, GMFCS and follow-up period on GDI. . Results. There was a mean improvement of 12.1 (-15.3 to 45.1) GDI points one year after SEMLS (p <  0.001) and 10.3 (-23.1 to 44.2) GDI points ten years after SEMLS compared with before SEMLS (p < 0.001). GMFCS level III children aged ten to 12 years had the most improvement. The GMFCS III group had more surgical procedures at the index SEMLS (p < 0.001) and during the follow-up period (p = 0.039). After correcting for other factors, age at surgery was the only factor predictive of long-term results. Our model was able to explain 45% of the variance of the change in GDI at the different time points. Take home message: Children with GMFCS III level aged ten to 12 are the benchmark responders to SEMLS in the long-term. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:278–81

Aims

The present study seeks to investigate the correlation of pubofemoral distances (PFD) to α angles, and hip displaceability status, defined as femoral head coverage (FHC) or FHC during manual provocation of the newborn hip < 50%.

Aims

Abduction bracing is commonly used to treat developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) following closed reduction and spica casting, with little evidence to support or refute this practice. The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of abduction bracing after closed reduction in improving acetabular index (AI) and reducing secondary surgery for residual hip dysplasia.

Aims

Reimers migration percentage (MP) is a key measure to inform decision-making around the management of hip displacement in cerebral palsy (CP). The aim of this study is to assess validity and inter- and intra-rater reliability of a novel method of measuring MP using a smart phone app (HipScreen (HS) app).

We investigated the incidence and risk factors for the development of avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head in the course of treatment of children with cerebral palsy (CP) and dislocation of the hip. All underwent open reduction, proximal femoral and Dega pelvic osteotomy. The inclusion criteria were: a predominantly spastic form of CP, dislocation of the hip (migration percentage, MP > 80%), Gross Motor Function Classification System, (GMFCS) grade IV to V, a primary surgical procedure and follow-up of > one year. There were 81 consecutive children (40 girls and 41 boys) in the study. Their mean age was nine years (3.5 to 13.8) and mean follow-up was 5.5 years (1.6 to 15.1). Radiological evaluation included measurement of the MP, the acetabular index (AI), the epiphyseal shaft angle (ESA) and the pelvic femoral angle (PFA). The presence and grade of AVN were assessed radiologically according to the Kruczynski classification. Signs of AVN (grades I to V) were seen in 79 hips (68.7%). A total of 23 hips (18%) were classified between grades III and V. Although open reduction of the hip combined with femoral and Dega osteotomy is an effective form of treatment for children with CP and dislocation of the hip, there were signs of avascular necrosis in about two-thirds of the children. There was a strong correlation between post-operative pain and the severity of the grade of AVN. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:270–6

We have tested the reliability of a recently reported classification system of hip morphology in adolescents with cerebral palsy in whom the triradiate cartilage was closed. The classification is a six-grade ordinal scale, based on the measurement of the migration percentage and an assessment of Shenton’s arch, deformity of the femoral head, acetabular deformity and pelvic obliquity. Four paediatric orthopaedic surgeons and four physiotherapists received training in the use of the classification which they applied to the assessment of 42 hip radiographs, read on two separate occasions. The inter- and intra-observer reliability was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient and found to be excellent, with it ranging from 0.88 to 0.94. The classification in our study was shown to be valid (based on migration percentage), and reliable. As a result we believe that it can now be used in studies describing the natural history of hip displacement in cerebral palsy, in outcome studies and in communication between clinicians

Supracondylar humeral fractures are common in children, but there are no classification systems or radiological parameters that predict the likelihood of having to perform an open reduction. In a retrospective case–control study we evaluated the use of the medial spike angle and fracture tip–skin distance to predict the mode of reduction (closed or open) and the operating time in fractures with posterolateral displacement. A total of 21 patients (4.35%) with a small medial spike angle (< 45°) were identified from a total of 494 patients, and 42 patients with a medial spike angle of > 45° were randomly selected as controls. The medial spike group had significantly smaller fracture tip–skin distances (p < 0.001), longer operating times (p = 0.004) and more complications (p = 0.033) than the control group. There was no significant difference in the mode of reduction and a composite outcome measure. After adjustments for age and gender, only fracture tip–skin distance remained significantly associated with the operating time (β = -0.724, p = 0.042) and composite outcome (OR 0.863 (95% confidence interval 0.746 to 0.998); p = 0.048). Paediatric orthopaedic surgeons should have a lower threshold for open reduction when treating patients with a small medial spike angle and a small fracture tip–skin distance. . Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1290–4

Fractures of the odontoid in children with an open basilar synchondrosis differ from those which occur in older children and adults. We have reviewed the morphology of these fractures and present a classification system for them. There were four distinct patterns of fracture (types IA to IC and type II) which were distinguished by the site of the fracture, the degree of displacement and the presence or absence of atlantoaxial dislocation. Children with a closed synchondrosis were classified using the system devised by Anderson and D’Alonzo. Those with an open synchondrosis had a comparatively lower incidence of traumatic brain injury, a higher rate of missed diagnosis and a shorter mean stay in hospital. Certain subtypes (type IA and type II) are likely to be missed on plain radiographs and therefore more advanced imaging is recommended. We suggest staged treatment with initial stabilisation in a Halo body jacket and early fusion for those with unstable injuries, severe displacement or neurological involvement

Between July 2000 and April 2004, 19 patients with bilateral spastic cerebral palsy who required an assistive device to walk had combined lengthening-transfer of the medial hamstrings as part of multilevel surgery. A standardised physical examination, measurement of the Functional Mobility Scale score and video or instrumented gait analysis were performed pre- and post-operatively. Static parameters (popliteal angle, flexion deformity of the knee) and sagittal knee kinematic parameters (knee flexion at initial contact, minimum knee flexion during stance, mean knee flexion during stance) were recorded. The mean length of follow-up was 25 months (14 to 45). Statistically significant improvements in static and dynamic outcome parameters were found, corresponding to improvements in gait and functional mobility as determined by the Functional Mobility Scale. Mild hyperextension of the knee during gait developed in two patients and was controlled by adjustment of their ankle-foot orthosis. Residual flexion deformity > 10° occurred in both knees of one patient and was treated by anterior distal femoral physeal stapling. Two children also showed an improvement of one level in the Gross Motor Function Classification System

The results of a functional, clinical and radiological study of 30 children (60 hips) with whole-body cerebral palsy were reviewed at a mean follow-up of 10.2 years (9.5 to 11). Correction of windsweep deformity of the hips was performed by bilateral simultaneous combined soft-tissue and bony surgery at a mean age of 7.7 years (3.1 to 12.2). We were able to recall 22 patients; five had died of unrelated causes and three were lost to follow-up. Evaluation involved interviews with patients/carers and clinical and radiological examination. The gross motor functional classification system was used to assess overall motor function and showed improvement in seven patients. Of the 12 patients thought to have pain pre-operatively, only one had pain post-operatively. Improved handling was reported in 18 of 22 patients (82%). Those with handling problems were attributed by the carers to growth of the patients. All patients/carers considered the procedure worthwhile. The range of hip movements improved, and the mean windsweep index improved from 50 pre-operatively to 36 at follow-up. The migration percentage and centre-edge angle were assessed on plain radiographs. Radiological containment improved, the mean migration percentage improved from 50 pre-operatively to 20 at follow-up and the mean centre-edge angle improved from −5° to 29°. No statistical difference was noted between the three-year and ten-year follow-up results, indicating that the improvements in clinical and radiological outcome had been maintained

Aims

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the modified three-group Stulberg classification, which is based on the sphericity of the femoral head, in patients with Perthes’ disease.

The treatment of osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) in children and adolescents is determined by the stability of the lesion and the state of the overlying cartilage. MRI has been advocated as an accurate way of assessing and staging such lesions. Our aim was to determine if MRI scans accurately predicted the subsequent arthroscopic findings in adolescents with OCD of the knee. Some authors have suggested that a high signal line behind a fragment on the T2-weighted image indicates the presence of synovial fluid and is a sign of an unstable lesion. More recent reports have suggested that this high signal line is due to the presence of vascular granulation tissue and may represent a healing reaction. We were able to improve the accuracy of MRI for staging the OCD lesion from 45% to 85% by interpreting the high signal T2 line as a predictor of instability only when it was accompanied by a breach in the cartilage on the T1-weighted image. We conclude that MRI can be used to stage OCD lesions accurately and that a high signal line behind the OCD fragment does not always indicate instability. We recommend the use of an MRI classification system which correlates with the arthroscopic findings

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Osteonecrosis (ON) can cause considerable morbidity in young people who undergo treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). The aims of this study were to determine the operations undertaken for ON in this population in the UK, along with the timing of these operations and any sequential procedures that are used in different joints. We also explored the outcomes of those patients treated by core decompression (CD), and compared this with conservative management, in both the pre- or post-collapse stages of ON.

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To determine the likelihood of achieving a successful closed reduction (CR) of a dislocated hip in developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) after failed Pavlik harness treatment We report the rate of avascular necrosis (AVN) and the need for further surgical procedures.

Aims

The migration percentage (MP) is one criterion used for surgery in dislocated or displaced hips in children with cerebral palsy (CP). The MP at which a displaced hip can no longer return to normal is unclear. The aim of this paper was to identify the point of no return of the MP through a large population-based study.

Aims

The most important complication of treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head, which can result in proximal femoral growth disturbances leading to pain, dysfunction, and eventually to early onset osteoarthritis. In this study, we aimed to identify morphological variants in hip joint development that are predictive of a poor outcome.

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To compare changes in gait kinematics and walking speed 24 months after conventional (C-MLS) and minimally invasive (MI-MLS) multilevel surgery for children with diplegic cerebral palsy (CP).

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The treatment of tibial aplasia is controversial. Amputation represents the gold standard with good functional results, but is frequently refused by the families. In these patients, treatment with reconstructive limb salvage can be considered. Due to the complexity of the deformity, this remains challenging and should be staged. The present study evaluated the role of femoro-pedal distraction using a circular external fixator in reconstructive treatment of tibial aplasia. The purpose of femoro-pedal distraction is to realign the limb and achieve soft tissue lengthening to allow subsequent reconstructive surgery.

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Guided growth has been used to treat coxa valga for cerebral palsy (CP) children. However, there has been no study on the optimal position of screw application. In this paper we have investigated the influence of screw position on the outcomes of guided growth.

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We aimed to evaluate the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in children with supracondylar humeral fractures (SCHFs), who were treated following the recommendations of the Paediatric Comprehensive AO Classification, and to assess if HRQoL was associated with AO fracture classification, or fixation with a lateral external fixator compared with closed reduction and percutaneous pinning (CRPP).

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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term outcome of adolescents with cerebral palsy who have undergone single-event multilevel surgery for a flexed-knee gait, followed into young adulthood using 3D motion analysis.

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The aim of this study was to report the clinical, functional and radiological outcomes of children and adolescents with tibial fractures treated using the Ilizarov method.

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Despite the presence of screening programmes, infants continue to present with late developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH), the impact of which is significant. The aim of this study was to assess infants with late presenting dislocation of the hip despite universal clinical neonatal and selective ultrasound screening.

Pelvic obliquity is a common finding in adolescents with cerebral palsy, however, there is little agreement on its measurement or relationship with hip development at different gross motor function classification system (GMFCS) levels.

The purpose of this investigation was to study these issues in a large, population-based cohort of adolescents with cerebral palsy at transition into adult services.

The cohort were a subset of a three year birth cohort (n = 98, 65M: 33F, with a mean age of 18.8 years (14.8 to 23.63) at their last radiological review) with the common features of a migration percentage greater than 30% and a history of adductor release surgery.

Different radiological methods of measuring pelvic obliquity were investigated in 40 patients and the angle between the acetabular tear drops (ITDL) and the horizontal reference frame of the radiograph was found to be reliable, with good face validity. This was selected for further study in all 98 patients.

The median pelvic obliquity was 4° (interquartile range 2° to 8°). There was a strong correlation between hip morphology and the presence of pelvic obliquity (effect of ITDL on Sharpe’s angle in the higher hip; rho 7.20 (5% confidence interval 5.59 to 8.81, p < 0.001). This was particularly true in non-ambulant adolescents (GMFCS IV and V) with severe pelvic obliquity, but was also easily detectable and clinically relevant in ambulant adolescents with mild pelvic obliquity.

The identification of pelvic obliquity and its management deserves closer scrutiny in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1435–40.

Aims

Extendible endoprostheses have been available for more than 30 years and have become more sophisticated with time. The latest generation is ‘non-invasive’ and can be lengthened with an external magnetic force. Early results have shown a worryingly high rate of complications such as infection. This study investigates the incidence of complications and the need for further surgery in a cohort of patients with a non-invasive growing endoprosthesis.

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To compare the structural durability of hydroxyapatite-tricalcium phosphate (HATCP) to autologous iliac crest bone graft in calcaneal lengthening osteotomy (CLO) for pes planovalgus in childhood.

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We wished to examine the effectiveness of tibial lengthening using a two ring Ilizarov frame in skeletally immature patients. This is a potentially biomechanically unstable construct which risks the loss of axial control.

The aims of this study were to report functional outcomes of salvage procedures for patients with cerebral palsy (CP) who have chronic dislocation of the hip using validated scoring systems, and to compare the results of three surgical techniques.

We reviewed 37 patients retrospectively. The mean age at the time of surgery was 12.2 years (8 to 22) and the mean follow-up was 56 months (24 to 114). Patients were divided into three groups: 14 who underwent proximal femoral resection arthroplasty (PFRA group 1), ten who underwent subtrochanteric valgus osteotomy (SVO group 2), and 13 who underwent subtrochanteric valgus osteotomy with resection of the femoral head (SVO with FHR group 3). All patients were evaluated using the Caregiver Priorities and Child Health Index of Life with Disabilities (CPCHILD) and the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL).

Significant improvements occurred in most CPCHILD and PedsQL subsection scores following surgery in all patients, without significant differences between the groups. There were 12 post-operative complications. Less severe complications were seen in group 1 than in groups 2 and 3.

Salvage surgery appears to provide pain relief in patients with CP who have painful chronic dislocation of the hip. The three salvage procedures produced similar results, however, we recommend the use of PFRA as the complications are less severe.

Take home message: Salvage surgery can be of benefit to patients with CP with chronic painful hip dislocation, but should be limited to selected patients considering complications.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:137–43.

Hip displacement, defined in this study as a migration percentage (MP) of more than 40%, is a common, debilitating complication of cerebral palsy (CP). In this prospective study we analysed the risk of developing hip displacement within five years of the first pelvic radiograph.

All children with CP in southern and western Sweden are invited to register in the hip surveillance programme CPUP. Inclusion criteria for the two groups in this study were children from the CPUP database born between 1994 and 2009 with Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) III to V. Group 1 included children who developed hip displacement, group 2 included children who did not develop hip displacement over a minimum follow-up of five years. A total of 145 children were included with a mean age at their initial pelvic radiograph of 3.5 years (0.6 to 9.7).

The odds ratio for hip displacement was calculated for GMFCS-level, age and initial MP and head-shaft angle. A risk score was constructed with these variables using multiple logistic regression analysis. The predictive ability of the risk score was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).

All variables had a significant effect on the risk of a MP > 40%. The discriminatory accuracy of the CPUP hip score is high (AUC = 0.87), indicating a high ability to differentiate between high- and low-risk individuals for hip displacement. The CPUP hip score may be useful in deciding on further follow-up and treatment in children with CP.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1441–4.

The recognition of hips at risk of displacement in children with cerebral palsy (CP) is a difficult problem for the orthopaedic surgeon. The Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) and head–shaft angle (HSA) are prognostic factors for hip displacement. However, reference values for HSA are lacking. This study describes and compares the development of HSA in normal hips and children with CP.

We selected 33 children from a retrospective cohort with unilateral developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) (five boys, 28 girls) and 50 children (35 boys, 15 girls) with CP with GMFCS levels II to V. HSA of normal developing hips was measured at the contralateral hip of unilateral DDH children (33 hips) and HSA of CP children was measured in both hips (100 hips). Measurements were taken from the radiographs of the children at age two, four and seven years. The normal hip HSA decreased by 2° per year (p < 0.001). In children with CP with GMFCS levels II and III HSA decreased by 0.6° (p = 0.046) and 0.9° (p = 0.049) per year, respectively. The HSA did not alter significantly in GMFCS levels IV and V.

Between the ages of two and eight years, the HSA decreases in normal hips and CP children with GMFCS level, II to III but does not change in GMFCS levels IV to V. As HSA has a prognostic value for hip displacement, these reference values may help the orthopaedic surgeon to predict future hip displacement in children with CP.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1291–5.

We report the results of Vulpius transverse gastrocsoleus recession for equinus gait in 26 children with cerebral palsy (CP), using the Gait Profile Score (GPS), Gait Variable Scores (GVS) and movement analysis profile. All children had an equinus deformity on physical examination and equinus gait on three-dimensional gait analysis prior to surgery. The pre-operative and post-operative GPS and GVS were statistically analysed. There were 20 boys and 6 girls in the study cohort with a mean age at surgery of 9.2 years (5.1 to 17.7) and 11.5 years (7.3 to 20.8) at follow-up. Of the 26 children, 14 had spastic diplegia and 12 spastic hemiplegia. Gait function improved for the cohort, confirmed by a decrease in mean GPS from 13.4° pre-operatively to 9.0° final review (p < 0.001). The change was 2.8 times the minimal clinically important difference (MCID). Thus the improvements in gait were both clinically and statistically significant. The transverse gastrocsoleus recession described by Vulpius is an effective procedure for equinus gait in selected children with CP, when there is a fixed contracture of the gastrocnemius and soleus muscles.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:564–71.

The incidence of clinically significant avascular necrosis (AVN) following medial open reduction of the dislocated hip in children with developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) remains unknown. We performed a systematic review of the literature to identify all clinical studies reporting the results of medial open reduction surgery. A total of 14 papers reporting 734 hips met the inclusion criteria. The mean follow-up was 10.9 years (2 to 28). The rate of clinically significant AVN (types 2 to 4) was 20% (149/734). From these papers 221 hips in 174 children had sufficient information to permit more detailed analysis. The rate of AVN increased with the length of follow-up to 24% at skeletal maturity, with type 2 AVN predominating in hips after five years’ follow-up. The presence of AVN resulted in a higher incidence of an unsatisfactory outcome at skeletal maturity (55% vs 20% in hips with no AVN; p < 0.001). A higher rate of AVN was identified when surgery was performed in children aged < 12 months, and when hips were immobilised in ≥ 60°of abduction post-operatively. Multivariate analysis showed that younger age at operation, need for further surgery and post-operative hip abduction of ≥ 60° increased the risk of the development of clinically significant AVN.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:279–86.

A small proportion of children with Gartland type III supracondylar humeral fracture (SCHF) experience troubling limited or delayed recovery after operative treatment. We hypothesised that the fracture level relative to the isthmus of the humerus would affect the outcome.

We retrospectively reviewed 230 children who underwent closed reduction and percutaneous pinning (CRPP) for their Gartland type III SCHFs between March 2003 and December 2012. There were 144 boys and 86 girls, with the mean age of six years (1.1 to 15.2). The clinico-radiological characteristics and surgical outcomes (recovery of the elbow range of movement, post-operative angulation, and the final Flynn grade) were recorded. Multivariate analysis was employed to identify prognostic factors that influenced outcome, including fracture level. Multivariate analysis revealed that a fracture below the humeral isthmus was significantly associated with poor prognosis in terms of the range of elbow movement (p < 0.001), angulation (p = 0.001) and Flynn grade (p = 0.003). Age over ten years was also a poor prognostic factor for recovery of the range of elbow movement (p = 0.027).

This is the first study demonstrating a subclassification system of Gartland III fractures with prognostic significance. This will guide surgeons in peri-operative planning and counselling as well as directing future research aimed at improving outcomes.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:134–40.

We reviewed the long-term radiological outcome, complications and revision operations in 19 children with quadriplegic cerebral palsy and hip dysplasia who underwent combined peri-iliac osteotomy and femoral varus derotation osteotomy. They had a mean age of 7.5 years (1.6 to 10.9) and comprised 22 hip dislocations and subluxations. We also studied the outcome for the contralateral hip. At a mean follow-up of 11.7 years (10 to 15.1) the Melbourne cerebral palsy (CP) hip classification was grade 2 in 16 hips, grade 3 in five, and grade 5 in one. There were five complications seen in four hips (21%, four patients), including one dislocation, one subluxation, one coxa vara with adduction deformity, one subtrochanteric fracture and one infection. A recurrent soft-tissue contracture occurred in five hips and ten required revision surgery.

In pre-adolescent children with quadriplegic cerebral palsy good long-term outcomes can be achieved after reconstruction of the hip; regular follow-up is required.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:259–65.

This study compares the initial outcomes of minimally invasive techniques for single-event multi-level surgery with conventional single-event multi-level surgery. The minimally invasive techniques included derotation osteotomies using closed corticotomy and fixation with titanium elastic nails and percutaneous lengthening of muscles where possible. A prospective cohort study of two matched groups was undertaken. Ten children with diplegic cerebral palsy with a mean age of ten years six months (7.11 to 13.9) had multi-level minimally invasive surgery and were matched for ambulatory level and compared with ten children with a mean age of 11 years four months (7.9 to 14.4) who had conventional single-event multi-level surgery. Gait kinematics, the Gillette Gait Index, isometric muscle strength and gross motor function were assessed before and 12 months after operation.

The minimally invasive group had significantly reduced operation time and blood loss with a significantly improved time to mobilisation. There were no complications intra-operatively or during hospitalisation in either group. There was significant improvement in gait kinematics and the Gillette Gait Index in both groups with no difference between them. There was a trend to improved muscle strength in the multi-level group. There was no significant difference in gross motor function between the groups.

We consider that minimally invasive single-event multi-level surgery can be achieved safely and effectively with significant advantages over conventional techniques in children with diplegic cerebral palsy.

We reviewed the outcome in 24 children with bilateral spastic cerebral palsy aged seven years or younger for whom surgery was recommended between 1999 and 2005 following gait analysis. A total of 13 children (operative group) had surgery and the remaining 11 (control group) did not, for family or administrative reasons. The operative group had at least two post-operative gait analyses at yearly intervals, with eight children having a third and six children a fourth. The control group had a second analysis after a mean interval of 1.5 years (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 1.9). In the operative group, the Gillette gait index, the ranges of movement in the lower limb joint and knee extension in stance improved following surgery, and this was maintained overall at the second post-operative analysis. The minimum knee flexion in stance in the control group increased between analyses.

These results suggest that surgical intervention in selected children can result in improvements in gait and function in the short to medium term compared with non-operative management.

Congenital pseudarthrosis of the tibia (CPT) is a rare but well recognised condition. Obtaining union of the pseudarthrosis in these children is often difficult and may require several surgical procedures. The treatment has changed significantly since the review by Hardinge in 1972, but controversies continue as to the best form of surgical treatment. This paper reviews these controversies.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1027–34.

Background

Symptoms of obstetric brachial plexus injury (OBPI) vary widely over the course of time and from individual to individual and can include various degrees of denervation, muscle weakness, contractures, bone deformities and functional limitations. To date, no universally accepted overall framework is available to assess the outcome of patients with OBPI. The objective of this paper is to outline the proposed process for the development of International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) Core Sets for patients with an OBPI.

We have reviewed our experience of the removal of deep extremity orthopaedic implants in children to establish the nature, rate and risk of complications associated with this procedure. A retrospective review was performed of 801 children who had 1223 implants inserted and subsequently removed over a period of 17 years. Bivariate analysis of possible predictors including clinical factors, complications associated with implant insertion and indications for removal and the complications encountered at removal was performed. A logistical regression model was then constructed using those predictors which were significantly associated with surgical complications from the bivariate analyses. Odds ratios estimated in the logistical regression models were converted to risk ratios.

The overall rate of complications after removal of the implant was 12.5% (100 complications in 801 patients), with 48 (6.0%) major and 52 (6.5%) minor. Children with a complication after insertion of the initial implant or with a non-elective indication for removal, a neuromuscular disease associated with a seizure disorder or a neuromuscular disease in those unable to walk, had a significantly greater chance of having a major complication after removal of the implant. Children with all four of these predictors were 14.6 times more likely to have a major complication.

Several authors have suggested that the final five weeks of gestation are a critical period for the development of the hip. In order to test the hypothesis that gestational age at birth may influence the development of the hip joint, we analysed the sonographic findings in 1992 hips (in 996 term newborns) with no risk factor for developmental dysplasia of the hip. The 996 infants were born at a mean gestational age of 39 weeks (37 to 41).

The mean bony roof angle (α), cartilage roof angle (β) and the distribution of the type of hip were compared between the 37th, 38th, 39th, 40th and 41st birth week groups. There was a significant difference in the distribution of type of hip between the different birth week groups (p < 0.001), but no significant difference between the α angles of all groups (p = 0.32). There was no correlation between birth week and roof angle (p = 0.407 and p = 0.291, respectively) and no significant correlation between birth weight and roof angle (p = 0.735 and p = 0.132, respectively).

The maturity of the infant hip, as assessed sonographically, does not appear to be affected by gestational age, and the fetal development of the acetabular roof appears to plateau from 37 weeks.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:266–70.

Although equinus gait is the most common abnormality in children with spastic cerebral palsy (CP) there is no consistency in recommendations for treatment, and evidence for best practice is lacking. The Baumann procedure allows selective fractional lengthening of the gastrocnemii and soleus muscles but the long-term outcome is not known. We followed a group of 18 children (21 limbs) with diplegic CP for ten years using three-dimensional instrumented gait analysis. The kinematic parameters of the ankle joint improved significantly following this procedure and were maintained until the end of follow-up. We observed a normalisation of the timing of the key kinematic and kinetic parameters, and an increase in the maximum generation of power of the ankle. There was a low rate of overcorrection (9.5%, n = 2), and a rate of recurrent equinus similar to that found with other techniques (23.8%, n = 5).

As the procedure does not impair the muscle architecture, and allows for selective correction of the contracted gastrocnemii and soleus, it may be recommended as the preferred method for correction of a mild fixed equinus deformity.

In 1994, a register for cerebral palsy and a health-care programme were started in southern Sweden with the aim of preventing dislocation of the hip in children with cerebral palsy. It involved all children with cerebral palsy born in 1992 or later.

None of the 206 affected children born between 1992 and 1997 has developed a dislocation following the introduction of the prevention programme. Another 48 children moved into the area and none developed any further dislocation. Of the 251 children with cerebral palsy, aged between five and 11 years, living in the area on January 1, 2003, only two had a dislocated hip. One boy had moved into the area at age of nine with a dislocation and a girl whose parents chose not to participate in the programme developed bilateral dislocation. One boy, whose condition was considered to be too poor for preventative surgery, developed a painful dislocation of the hip at the age of five years and died three years later.

Eight of 103 children in a control group, consisting of all children with cerebral palsy living in the area between 1994 and 2002, and born between 1990 and 1991, developed a dislocation of the hip before the age of six years.

The decreased incidence of dislocation after the introduction of the prevention programme was significant (p < 0.001). Dislocation of the hip in cerebral palsy remains a serious problem, and prevention is important. Our screening programme and early intervention when lateral displacement of the femoral head was detected appear to be successful.

Our aim in this retrospective study of 52 children with spastic hemiplegia was to determine the factors which affected the amount of residual pelvic rotation after single-event multilevel surgery.

The patients were divided into two groups, those who had undergone femoral derotation osteotomy and those who had not. Pelvic rotation improved significantly after surgery in the femoral osteotomy group (p < 0.001) but not in the non-femoral osteotomy group. Multiple regressions identified the following three independent variables, which significantly affected residual pelvic rotation: the performance of femoral derotation osteotomy (p = 0.049), the pre-operative pelvic rotation (p = 0.003) and the post-operative internal rotation of the hip (p = 0.001).

We concluded that there is a decrease in the amount of pelvic rotation after single-event multilevel surgery with femoral derotation osteotomy. However, some residual rotation may persist when patients have severe rotation before surgery.

The association between idiopathic congenital talipes equinovarus (CTEV) and developmental dysplasia of the hip is uncertain. We present an observational cohort study spanning 6.5 years of selective ultrasound screening of hips in clubfoot. From 119 babies with CTEV there were nine cases of hip dysplasia, in seven individuals. This suggests that 1 in 17 babies with CTEV will have underlying hip dysplasia.

This study supports selective ultrasound screening of hips in infants with CTEV.

We conducted a prospective randomised controlled trial to compare the standard Ponseti plaster method with an accelerated method for the treatment of idiopathic congenital talipes equinovarus. The standard weekly plaster-change method was accelerated to three times per week. We hypothesised that both methods would be equally effective in achieving correction. A total of 40 consecutive patients (61 feet) were entered into the trial. The initial median Pirani score was 5.5 (95% confidence interval 4.5 to 6.0) in the accelerated group and 5.0 (95% confidence interval 4.0 to 5.0) in the standard control group. The scores decreased by an average 4.5 in the accelerated group and 4.0 in the control group. There was no significant difference in the final Pirani score between the two groups (chi-squared test, p = 0.308). The median number of treatment days in plaster was 16 in the accelerated group and 42 in the control group (p < 0.001). Of the 19 patients in the accelerated group, three required plaster treatment for more than 21 days and were then assigned to the standard control method. Of the 40 patients, 36 were followed for a minimum of six months.

These results suggest that comparable outcomes can be achieved with an accelerated Ponseti method. The ability to complete all necessary manipulations within a three-week period facilitates treatment where patients have to travel long distances.

We present a retrospective review of 167 patients aged 18 years and under who were treated for chronic haematogenous osteomyelitis at our elective orthopaedic hospital in Malawi over a period of four years. The median age at presentation was eight years (1 to 18). There were 239 hospital admissions for treatment during the period of the study. In 117 patients one admission was necessary, in 35 two, and in 15 more than two.

A surgical strategy of infection control followed by reconstruction and stabilisation was employed, based on the Beit CURE radiological classification of chronic haematogenous osteomyelitis as a guide to treatment. At a minimum follow-up of one year after the end of the study none of the patients had returned to our hospital with recurrent infection.

A total of 350 operations were performed on the 167 patients. This represented 6.7% of all children’s operations performed in our hospital during this period. One operation only was required in 110 patients and none required more than three. Below-knee amputation was performed in two patients with chronic calcaneal osteomyelitis as the best surgical option for function. The most common organism cultured from operative specimens was Staphylococcus aureus, and the tibia was the bone most commonly affected. Polyostotic osteomyelitis occurred in four patients. We believe this is the largest reported series of patients treated for chronic haematogenous osteomyelitis.

We reviewed the results of a selective à la carte soft-tissue release operation for recurrent or residual deformity after initial conservative treatment for idiopathic clubfoot by the Ponseti method. Recurrent or residual deformity occurred in 13 (19 feet) of 33 patients (48 feet; 40%). The mean age at surgery was 2.3 years (1.3 to 4) and the mean follow-up was 3.6 years (2 to 5.3). The mean Pirani score had improved from 2.8 to 1.1 points, and the clinical and radiological results were satisfactory in all patients. However, six of the 13 patients (9 of 19 feet) had required further surgery in the form of tibial derotation osteotomy, split anterior tibialis tendon transfer, split posterior tibialis transfer or a combination of these for recurrent deformity.

We concluded that selective soft-tissue release can provide satisfactory early results after failure of initial treatment of clubfoot by the Ponseti method, but long-term follow-up to skeletal maturity will be necessary.

We carried out a morphometric analysis of the acetabulum following Dega osteotomy in patients with cerebral palsy using three-dimensional CT. We assessed 17 acetabula in 12 patients with instability of the hip. A Dega osteotomy and varus derotation femoral osteotomy were performed in all 17 hips. Three-dimensional CT scans were taken before and approximately one year after operation. Acetabular cover was evaluated using anterosuperior, superolateral and posterosuperior acetabular indices, and the change in the acetabular volume was calculated. Inter- and intra-observer reliability was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient. After the osteotomy, the anterosuperior, superolateral and posterosuperior cover had improved significantly towards the value seen in a control group. The mean acetabular volume increased by 68%.

This nationwide prospective study was designed to determine prognostic factors and evaluate the outcome of different treatments of Perthes’ disease.

A total of 28 hospitals in Norway were instructed to report all new cases of Perthes’ disease over a period of five years and 425 patients were reported and followed for five years. Of these, 368 with unilateral disease were included in the present study. The hips were classified radiologically according to a modified two-group Catterall classification and the lateral pillar classification. A total of 358 patients (97%) attended the five-year follow-up, when a modified three-group Stulberg classification was used as a radiological outcome measure. For patients over six years of age at diagnosis and with more than 50% necrosis of the femoral head (152 patients), the surgeons at the different hospitals had chosen one of three methods of treatment: physiotherapy (55 patients), the Scottish Rite abduction orthosis (26), and proximal femoral varus osteotomy (71). Of these hips, 146 (96%) were available for the five-year follow-up.

The strongest predictor of outcome was femoral head involvement of more or less than 50% (odds ratio (OR) = 7.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82 to 21.37), followed by age at diagnosis (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.99) and the lateral pillar classification (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.98). In children over six years at diagnosis with more than 50% of femoral head necrosis, proximal femoral varus osteotomy gave a significantly better outcome than orthosis (p = 0.001) or physiotherapy (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference between the physiotherapy and orthosis groups (p = 0.36), and we found no difference in outcome after any of the treatments in children under six years (p = 0.73).

We recommend proximal femoral varus osteotomy in children aged six years and over at the time of diagnosis with hips having more than 50% femoral head necrosis. The abduction orthosis should be abandoned in Perthes’ disease.

We reviewed the medical records of 115 patients with 130 hips with developmental dysplasia with complete dislocation in the absence of a neuromuscular disorder, spontaneous reduction with a Pavlik harness, and a minimum of 14 years’ follow-up. The mean age at the time of harness application was 4.8 months (1 to 12) and the mean time spent in the harness was 6.1 months (3 to 12). A total of 108 hips (83.1%) were treated with the harness alone and supplementary surgery for residual acetabular dysplasia, as defined by an acetabular index > 30°, was performed in 22 hips (16.9%).

An overall satisfactory outcome (Severin grade I or II) was achieved in 119 hips (91.5%) at a mean follow-up of 16 years (14 to 32) with a follow-up rate of 75%. Avascular necrosis of the femoral head was noted in 16 hips (12.3%), seven of which (44%) underwent supplementary surgery and nine (56%) of which were classified as satisfactory. The acetabular index was the most reliable predictor of residual acetabular dysplasia.

Two protocols for the operative technique and care of the pin-site with external fixation were compared prospectively. There was a total of 120 patients with 46 in group A and 74 in group B. Infection was defined as an episode of pain or inflammation at a pin site, accompanied by a discharge which was either positive on bacterial culture or responded to a course of antibiotics.

Patients in group B had a lower proportion of infected pin sites (p = 0.003) and the time to the first episode of infection was longer (p < 0.001). The risk of pin-site infection is lower if attention is paid to avoiding thermal injury and local formation of haematoma during surgery and if after-care includes the use of an alcoholic antiseptic and occlusive pressure dressings.

We describe the long-term results in ten patients with obstetric brachial plexus palsy of anterior shoulder release combined with transfer of teres major and latissimus dorsi posteriorly and laterally to allow them to act as external rotators. Eight patients had a lesion of the superior trunk and two some involvement of the entire brachial plexus. The mean age at operation was six years, and the mean follow-up was 30 years.

Before operation, the patients were unable actively to rotate the arm externally beyond neutral, although this movement was passively normal. All showed decreased strength of the external rotator, but had normal strength of the internal rotator muscles. Radiologically, no severe bony changes were seen in the glenohumeral joint.

No clinically detectable improvement of active abduction was noted in any patient. The mean active external rotation after operation was 36.5°. This was maintained for a mean of ten years, and then deteriorated in eight patients. At the latest follow-up the mean active external rotation was 10.5°.

The early satisfactory results of the procedure were not maintained. In the long term there was loss of active external rotation, possibly because of gradual degeneration of the transferred muscles, contracture of the surrounding soft tissues and degenerative changes in the glenohumeral joint.

The outcome of displaced hips treated by Somerville and Scott’s method was assessed after more than 25 years. A total of 147 patients (191 displaced hips) was reviewed which represented an overall follow-up of 65.6%. The median age at the index operation was two years. During the first five years, 25 (13%) hips showed signs of avascular change.

The late development of valgus angulation of the neck, after ten years, was seen in 69 (36%) hips. Further operations were frequently necessary. Moderate to severe osteoarthritis developed at a young age in 40% of the hips. Total hip replacement or arthrodesis was necessary in 27 (14%) hips at a mean age of 36.5 years. Risk factors identified were high dislocation, open reduction, and age at the original operation. Two groups of patients were compared according to outcome. All the radiographic indices were different between the two groups after ten years, but most were similar before. It takes a generation to establish the prognosis, although some early indicators may help to predict outcome.