Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. With novel promising therapies potentially limiting progression of Dupuytren’s disease (DD), better patient stratification is needed. We aimed to quantify DD development and progression after seven years in a population-based cohort, and to identify factors predictive of disease development or progression. Methods. All surviving participants from our previous prevalence study were invited to participate in the current prospective cohort study. Participants were examined for presence of DD and Iselin’s classification was applied. They were asked to complete comprehensive questionnaires. Disease progression was defined as advancement to a further Iselin stage or surgery. Potential predictive factors were assessed using multivariable regression analyses. Of 763 participants in our original study, 398 were available for further investigation seven years later. Results. We identified 143/398 (35.9%) participants with DD, of whom 56 (39.2%) were newly diagnosed. Overall, 20/93 (21.5%) previously affected participants had disease progression, while 6/93 (6.5%) patients showed disease regression. Disease progression occurred more often in patients who initially had advanced disease. Multivariable regression analyses revealed that both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD are independent predictors of disease progression. Previous hand injury predicts development of DD. Conclusion. Disease progression occurred in 21.5% of DD patients in our study. The higher the initial disease stage, the greater the proportion of participants who had disease progression at follow-up. Both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD predict disease progression. These patient-specific factors may be used to identify patients who might benefit from treatment that prevents progression. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):704–710

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate time to arthroplasty among patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), and to identify factors at enrolment to first-line intervention that are prognostic for progression to surgery. Methods. In this longitudinal register-based observational study, we identified 72,069 patients with hip and knee OA in the Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis Register (BOA), who were referred for first-line OA intervention, between May 2008 and December 2016. Patients were followed until the first primary arthroplasty surgery before 31 December 2016, stratified into a hip and a knee OA cohort. Data were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Results. At five years, Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 46% (95% confidence interval (CI) 44.6 to 46.9) of those with hip OA, and 20% (95% CI 19.7 to 21.0) of those with knee OA, had progressed to arthroplasty. The strongest prognostic factors were desire for surgery (hazard ratio (HR) hip 3.12 (95% CI 2.95 to 3.31), HR knee 2.72 (95% CI 2.55 to 2.90)), walking difficulties (HR hip 2.20 (95% CI 1.97 to 2.46), HR knee 1.95 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.20)), and frequent pain (HR hip 1.56 (95% CI 1.40 to 1.73), HR knee 1.77 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.00)). In hip OA, the probability of progression to surgery was lower among those with comorbidities (e.g. ≥ four conditions; HR 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.69)), with no detectable effects in the knee OA cohort. Instead, being overweight or obese increased the probability of OA progress in the knee cohort (HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.37)), but not among those with hip OA. Conclusion. Patients with hip OA progressed faster and to a greater extent to arthroplasty than patients with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by patients’ desire for surgery and by factors related to severity of OA symptoms, but factors not directly related to OA symptoms are also of importance. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery within five years, especially among those with knee OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):792–800

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. Rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) has been reported to be effective in improving symptoms and preventing osteoarthritis (OA) progression in patients with mild to severe develomental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, some patients develop secondary OA even when the preoperative joint space is normal; determining who will progress to OA is difficult. We evaluated whether the preoperative cartilage condition may predict OA progression following surgery using T2 mapping MRI. Methods. We reviewed 61 hips with early-stage OA in 61 patients who underwent RAO for DDH. They underwent preoperative and five-year postoperative radiological analysis of the hip. Those with a joint space narrowing of more than 1 mm were considered to have 'OA progression'. Preoperative assessment of articular cartilage was also performed using 3T MRI with the T2 mapping technique. The region of interest was defined as the weightbearing portion of the acetabulum and femoral head. Results. There were 16 patients with postoperative OA progression. The T2 values of the centre to the anterolateral region of the acetabulum and femoral head in the OA progression cases were significantly higher than those in patients without OA progression. The preoperative T2 values in those regions were positively correlated with the narrowed joint space width. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the T2 value of the central portion in the acetabulum provided excellent discrimination, with OA progression patients having an area under the curve of 0.858. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed T2 values of the centre to the acetabulum’s anterolateral portion as independent predictors of subsequent OA progression (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This was the first study to evaluate the relationship between intra-articular degeneration using T2 mapping MRI and postoperative OA progression. Our findings suggest that preoperative T2 values of the hip can be better prognostic factors for OA progression than radiological measures following RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1472–1478

Aims. cAMP response element binding protein (CREB1) is involved in the progression of osteoarthritis (OA). However, available findings about the role of CREB1 in OA are inconsistent. 666-15 is a potent and selective CREB1 inhibitor, but its role in OA is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the precise role of CREB1 in OA, and whether 666-15 exerts an anti-OA effect. Methods. CREB1 activity and expression of a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs 4 (ADAMTS4) in cells and tissues were measured by immunoblotting and immunohistochemical (IHC) staining. The effect of 666-15 on chondrocyte viability and apoptosis was examined by cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) assay, JC-10, and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end-labelling (TUNEL) staining. The effect of 666-15 on the microstructure of subchondral bone, and the synthesis and catabolism of cartilage, in anterior cruciate ligament transection mice were detected by micro-CT, safranin O and fast green (S/F), immunohistochemical staining, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results. CREB1 was hyperactive in osteoarthritic articular cartilage, interleukin (IL)-1β-treated cartilage explants, and IL-1β- or carbonyl cyanide 3-chlorophenylhydrazone (CCCP)-treated chondrocytes. 666-15 enhanced cell viability of OA-like chondrocytes and alleviated IL-1β- or CCCP-induced chondrocyte injury through inhibition of mitochondrial dysfunction-associated apoptosis. Moreover, inhibition of CREB1 by 666-15 suppressed expression of ADAMTS4. Additionally, 666-15 alleviated joint degeneration in an ACLT mouse model. Conclusion. Hyperactive CREB1 played a critical role in OA development, and 666-15 exerted anti-IL-1β or anti-CCCP effects in vitro as well as joint-protective effects in vivo. 666-15 may therefore be used as a promising anti-OA drug. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(1):4–18

Aims. The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature for evidence of the effect of a high-fat diet (HFD) on the onset or progression of osteoarthritis (OA) in mice. Methods. A literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus to find all studies on mice investigating the effects of HFD or Western-type diet on OA when compared with a control diet (CD). The primary outcome was the determination of cartilage loss and alteration. Secondary outcomes regarding local and systemic levels of proteins involved in inflammatory processes or cartilage metabolism were also examined when reported. Results. In total, 14 publications met our inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Our meta-analysis showed that, when measured by the modified Mankin Histological-Histochemical Grading System, there was a significantly higher rate of OA in mice fed a HFD than in mice on a CD (standardized mean difference (SMD) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63 to 1.91). Using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) score, there was a trend towards HFD causing OA (SMD 0.78, 95% CI -0.04 to 1.61). In terms of OA progression, a HFD consistently worsened the progression of surgically induced OA when compared with a CD. Finally, numerous inflammatory cytokines such as tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-1β, and leptin, among others, were found to be altered by a HFD. Conclusion. A HFD seems to induce or exacerbate the progression of OA in mice. The metabolic changes and systemic inflammation brought about by a HFD appear to be key players in the onset and progression of OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2019;8:582–592

Aims. To analyze the potential role of synovial fluid peptidase activity as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Methods. A cross-sectional study of 39 patients (women 71.8%, men 28.2%; mean age of 72.03 years (SD 1.15) with advanced KOA (Ahlbäck grade ≥ 3 and clinical indications for arthrocentesis) recruited through the (Orthopaedic Department at the Complejo Asistencial Universitario de León, Spain (CAULE)), measuring synovial fluid levels of puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase (PSA), neutral aminopeptidase (NAP), aminopeptidase B (APB), prolyl endopeptidase (PEP), aspartate aminopeptidase (ASP), glutamyl aminopeptidase (GLU) and pyroglutamyl aminopeptidase (PGAP). Results. Synovial fluid peptidase activity varied significantly as a function of clinical signs, with differences in levels of PEP (p = 0.020), ASP (p < 0.001), and PGAP (p = 0. 003) associated with knee locking, PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p = 0.000) with knee failure, and PEP (p = 0.006), ASP (p = 0.001), GLU (p = 0.037), and PGAP (p < 0.001) with knee effusion. Further, patients with the greatest functional impairment had significantly higher levels of APB (p = 0.005), PEP (p = 0.005), ASP (p = 0.006), GLU (p = 0.020), and PGAP (p < 0.001) activity, though not of NAP or PSA, indicating local alterations in the renin-angiotensin system. A binary logistic regression model showed that PSA was protective (p = 0.005; Exp (B) 0.949), whereas PEP (p = 0.005) and GLU were risk factors (p = 0.012). Conclusion. These results suggest synovial fluid peptidase activity could play a role as a measure of disease burden and predictive biomarker of progression in KOA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):789–797

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether supine flexibility predicts the likelihood of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing brace treatment. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with AIS prescribed with an underarm brace between September 2008 to April 2013 and followed up until 18 years of age or required surgery. Patients with structural proximal curves that preclude underarm bracing, those who were lost to follow-up, and those who had poor compliance to bracing (<16 hours a day) were excluded. The major curve Cobb angle, curve type, and location were measured on the pre-brace standing posteroanterior (PA) radiograph, supine whole spine radiograph, initial in-brace standing PA radiograph, and the post-brace weaning standing PA radiograph. Validation of the previous in-brace Cobb angle regression model was performed. The outcome of curve progression post-bracing was tested using a logistic regression model. The supine flexibility cut-off for curve progression was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. A total of 586 patients with mean age of 12.6 years (SD 1.2) remained for analysis after exclusion. The baseline Cobb angle was similar for thoracic major curves (31.6° (SD 3.8°)) and lumbar major curves (30.3° (SD 3.7°)). Curve progression was more common in the thoracic curves than lumbar curves with mean final Cobb angles of 40.5° (SD 12.5°) and 31.8° (SD 9.8°) respectively. This dataset matched the prediction model for in-brace Cobb angle with less mean absolute error in thoracic curves (0.61) as compared to lumbar curves (1.04). Reduced age and Risser stage, thoracic curves, increased pre-brace Cobb angle, and reduced correction and flexibility rates predicted increased likelihood of curve progression. Flexibility rate of more than 28% has likelihood of preventing curve progression with bracing. Conclusion. Supine radiographs provide satisfactory prediction for in-brace correction and post-bracing curve magnitude. The flexibility of the curve is a guide to determine the likelihood for brace success. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):254–260

Aims. To investigate the risk factors for progression of articular cartilage damage after anatomical anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. Patients and Methods. A total of 174 patients who underwent second-look arthroscopic evaluation after anatomical ACL reconstruction were enrolled in this study. The graded condition of the articular cartilage at the time of ACL reconstruction was compared with that at second-look arthroscopy. Age, gender, body mass index (BMI), ACL reconstruction technique, meniscal conditions, and other variables were assessed by regression analysis as risk factors for progression of damage to the articular cartilage. Results. In the medial compartment, multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that partial medial meniscectomy (odds ratio (OR) 6.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.11 to 22.04, p = 0.001), pivot-shift test grade at the final follow-up (OR 3.53, CI 1.39 to 8.96, p = 0.008), BMI (OR 1.15, CI 1.03 to 1.28, p = 0.015) and medial meniscal repair (OR 3.19, CI 1.24 to 8.21, p = 0.016) were significant risk factors for progression of cartilage damage. In the lateral compartment, partial lateral meniscectomy (OR 10.94, CI 4.14 to 28.92, p < 0.001) and side-to-side differences in anterior knee laxity at follow-up (OR 0.63, p = 0.001) were significant risk factors. Conclusion. Partial meniscectomy was found to be strongly associated with the progression of articular cartilage damage despite r anatomical ACL reconstruction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:285–93

Although the association between femoroacetabular impingement and osteoarthritis is established, it is not yet clear which hips have the greatest likelihood to progress rapidly to end-stage disease. We investigated the effect of several radiological parameters, each indicative of a structural aspect of the hip joint, on the progression of osteoarthritis. Pairs of plain anteroposterior pelvic radiographs, taken at least ten years apart, of 43 patients (43 hips) with a pistol-grip deformity of the femur and mild (Tönnis grade 1) or moderate (Tönnis grade 2) osteoarthritis were reviewed. Of the 43 hips, 28 showed evidence of progression of osteoarthritis. There was no significant difference in the prevalence of progression between hips with initial Tönnis grade 1 or grade 2 osteoarthritis (p = 0.31). Comparison of the hips with and without progression of arthritis revealed a significant difference in the mean medial proximal femoral angle (81° vs 87°, p = 0.004) and the presence of the posterior wall sign (39% vs 7%, p = 0.02) only. A logistic regression model was constructed to predict the influence of these two variables in the development of osteoarthritis. Mild to moderate osteoarthritis in hips with a pistol-grip deformity will not progress rapidly in all patients. In one-third, progression will take more than ten years to manifest, if ever. The individual geometry of the proximal femur and acetabulum partly influences this phenomenon. A hip with cam impingement is not always destined for end-stage arthritic degeneration

Objectives. This study aimed to examine the effects of SRT1720, a potent SIRT1 activator, on osteoarthritis (OA) progression using an experimental OA model. Methods. Osteoarthritis was surgically induced by destabilization of the medial meniscus in eight-week-old C57BL/6 male mice. SRT1720 was administered intraperitoneally twice a week after surgery. Osteoarthritis progression was evaluated histologically using the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) score at four, eight, 12 and 16 weeks. The expression of SIRT1, matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP-13), a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs-5 (ADAMTS-5), cleaved caspase-3, PARP p85, and acetylated nuclear factor (NF)-κB p65 in cartilage was examined by immunohistochemistry. Synovitis was also evaluated histologically. Primary mouse epiphyseal chondrocytes were treated with SRT1720 in the presence or absence of interleukin 1 beta (IL-1β), and gene expression changes were examined by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results. The OARSI score was significantly lower in mice treated with SRT1720 than in control mice at eight and 12 weeks associated with the decreased size of osteophytes at four and eight weeks. The delayed OA progression in the mice treated with SRT1720 was also associated with increased SIRT1-positive chondrocytes and decreased MMP-13-, ADAMTS-5-, cleaved caspase-3-, PARP p85-, and acetylated NF-κB p65-positive chondrocytes and decreased synovitis at four and eight weeks. SRT1720 treatment partially rescued the decreases in collagen type II alpha 1 (COL2A1) and aggrecan caused by IL-1β, while also reducing the induction of MMP-13 by IL-1β in vitro. Conclusion. The intraperitoneal injection of SRT1720 attenuated experimental OA progression in mice, indicating that SRT1720 could be a new therapeutic approach for OA. Cite this article: K. Nishida, T. Matsushita, K. Takayama, T. Tanaka, N. Miyaji, K. Ibaraki, D. Araki, N. Kanzaki, T. Matsumoto, R. Kuroda. Intraperitoneal injection of the SIRT1 activator SRT1720 attenuates the progression of experimental osteoarthritis in mice. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:252–262. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.73.BJR-2017-0227.R1

Objectives. In this study, we compared the pain behaviour and osteoarthritis (OA) progression between anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLT) and osteochondral injury in surgically-induced OA rat models. Methods. OA was induced in the knee joints of male Wistar rats using transection of the ACL or induction of osteochondral injury. Changes in the percentage of high limb weight distribution (%HLWD) on the operated hind limb were used to determine the pain behaviour in these models. The development of OA was assessed and compared using a histological evaluation based on the Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) cartilage OA histopathology score. Results. Both models showed an increase in joint pain as indicated by a significant (p < 0.05) decrease in the values of %HLWD at one week post-surgery. In the osteochondral injury model, the %HLWD returned to normal within three weeks, while in the ACLT model, a significant decrease in the %HLWD was persistent over an eight-week period. In addition, OA progression was more advanced in the ACLT model than in the osteochondral injury model. Furthermore, the ACLT model exhibited a higher mean OA score than that of the osteochondral injury model at 12 weeks. Conclusion. The development of pain patterns in the ACLT and osteochondral injury models is different in that the OA progression was significant in the ACLT model. Although both can be used as models for a post-traumatic injury of the knee, the selection of appropriate models for OA in preclinical studies should be specified and relevant to the clinical scenario. Cite this article: T. Tawonsawatruk, O. Sriwatananukulkit, W. Himakhun, W. Hemstapat. Comparison of pain behaviour and osteoarthritis progression between anterior cruciate ligament transection and osteochondral injury in rat models. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:244–251. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.73.BJR-2017-0121.R2

Aims

The aim of this study was to analyze how proximal radial neck resorption (PRNR) starts and progresses radiologically in two types of press-fit radial head arthroplasties (RHAs), and to investigate its clinical relevance.

Aims. Our aim was to develop and validate nomograms that would predict the cumulative incidence of sarcoma-specific death (CISSD) and disease progression (CIDP) in patients with localized high-grade primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Methods. The study population consisted of 391 patients from two international sarcoma centres (development cohort) who had undergone definitive surgery for a localized high-grade (histological grade II or III) conventional primary central chondrosarcoma or dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Disease progression captured the first event of either metastasis or local recurrence. An independent cohort of 221 patients from three additional hospitals was used for external validation. Two nomograms were internally and externally validated for discrimination (c-index) and calibration plot. Results. In the development cohort, the CISSD at ten years was 32.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8% to 38.4%). Age at diagnosis, grade, and surgical margin were found to have significant effects on CISSD and CIDP in multivariate analyses. Maximum tumour diameter was also significantly associated with CISSD. In the development cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.743 (95% CI 0.700 to 0.819) and 0.761 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.800), respectively. When applied to the validation cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.839 (95% CI 0.763 to 0.916) and 0.749 (95% CI 0.672 to 0.825), respectively. The calibration plots for these two nomograms demonstrated good fit. Conclusion. Our nomograms performed well on internal and external validation and can be used to predict CISSD and CIDP after resection of localized high-grade conventional primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. They provide a new tool with which clinicians can assess and advise individual patients about their prognosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1752–1759

The aim of this study was to investigate genetic influences on the development and progression of tears of the rotator cuff. From a group of siblings of patients with a tear of the rotator cuff and of controls studied five years earlier, we determined the prevalence of tears of the rotator cuff with and without associated symptoms using ultrasound and the Oxford Shoulder Score. In the five years since the previous assessment, three of 62 (4.8%) of the sibling group and one of the 68 (1.5%) controls had undergone shoulder surgery. These subjects were excluded from the follow-up. Full-thickness tears were found in 39 of 62 (62.9%) siblings and in 15 of 68 (22.1%) controls (p = 0.0001). The relative risk of full-thickness tears in siblings as opposed to controls was 2.85 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75 to 4.64), compared to 2.42 (95% CI 1.77 to 3.31) five years earlier. Full-thickness tears associated with pain were found in 30 of 39 (76.9%) tears in the siblings and in eight of 15 (53.3%) tears in the controls (p = 0.045). The relative risk of pain associated with a full-thickness tear in the siblings as opposed to the controls was 1.44 (95% CI 2.04 to 8.28) (p = 0.045). In the siblings group ten of 62 (16.1%) had progressed in terms of tear size or development compared to one of 68 (1.5%) in the control group which had increased in size. Full-thickness rotator cuff tears in siblings are significantly more likely to progress over a period of five years than in a control population. This implies that genetic factors have a role, not only in the development but also in the progression of full-thickness tears of the rotator cuff

We investigated the changes seen on serial metal artefact reduction magnetic resonance imaging scans (MARS-MRI) of metal-on-metal total hip arthroplasties (MoM THAs). In total 155 THAs, in 35 male and 100 female patients (mean age 70.4 years, 42 to 91), underwent at least two MRI scans at a mean interval of 14.6 months (2.6 to 57.1), at a mean of 48.2 months (3.5 to 93.3) after primary hip surgery. Scans were graded using a modification of the Oxford classification. Progression of disease was defined as an increase in grade or a minimum 10% increase in fluid lesion volume at second scan. A total of 16 hips (30%) initially classified as ‘normal’ developed an abnormality on the second scan. Of those with ‘isolated trochanteric fluid’ 9 (47%) underwent disease progression, as did 7 (58%) of ‘effusions’. A total of 54 (77%) of hips initially classified as showing adverse reactions to metal debris (ARMD) progressed, with higher rates of progression in higher grades. Disease progression was associated with high blood cobalt levels or an irregular pseudocapsule lining at the initial scan. There was no association with changes in functional scores. Adverse reactions to metal debris in MoM THAs may not be as benign as previous reports have suggested. Close radiological follow-up is recommended, particularly in high-risk groups. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1328–37

We determined the frequency, rate and extent of development of scoliosis (coronal plane deformity) in wheelchair-dependent patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) who were not receiving steroid treatment. We also assessed kyphosis and lordosis (sagittal plane deformity). The extent of scoliosis was assessed on sitting anteroposterior (AP) spinal radiographs in 88 consecutive non-ambulatory patients with DMD. Radiographs were studied from the time the patients became wheelchair-dependent until the time of spinal fusion, or the latest assessment if surgery was not undertaken. Progression was estimated using a longitudinal mixed-model regression analysis to handle repeated measurements. Scoliosis ≥ 10° occurred in 85 of 88 patients (97%), ≥ 20° in 78 of 88 (89%) and ≥ 30° in 66 of 88 patients (75%). The fitted longitudinal model revealed that time in a wheelchair was a highly significant predictor of the magnitude of the curve, independent of the age of the patient (p <  0.001). Scoliosis developed in virtually all DMD patients not receiving steroids once they became wheelchair-dependent, and the degree of deformity deteriorated over time. In general, scoliosis increased at a constant rate, beginning at the time of wheelchair-dependency (p < 0.001). In some there was no scoliosis for as long as three years after dependency, but scoliosis then developed and increased at a constant rate. Some patients showed a rapid increase in the rate of progression of the curve after a few years – the clinical phenomenon of a rapidly collapsing curve over a few months. A sagittal plane kyphotic deformity was seen in 37 of 60 patients (62%) with appropriate radiographs, with 23 (38%) showing lumbar lordosis (16 (27%) abnormal and seven (11%) normal). This study provides a baseline to assess the effects of steroids and other forms of treatment on the natural history of scoliosis in patients with DMD, and an approach to assessing spinal deformity in the coronal and sagittal planes in wheelchair-dependent patients with other neuromuscular disorders. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:100–5

In order to evaluate the relationship between acetabular and proximal femoral alignment in the initiation and evolution of osteoarthritis of the dysplastic hip, the acetabular and femoral angles were calculated geometrically from radiographs of 62 patients with pre-arthrosis and early osteoarthritis. The sum of the lateral opening angle of the acetabulum and the neck-shaft angle was defined as the lateral instability index (LII), and the sum of the anterior opening angle of the acetabulum and the anteversion angle of the femoral neck as the anterior instability index (AII). These two indices were compared in dysplastic and unaffected hips. A total of 22 unilateral hips with pre-arthrosis were followed for at least 15 years to determine whether the two indices were associated with the progression of osteoarthritis. The LII of the affected hips (197.4 (. sd. 6.0)) was significantly greater than that of the unaffected hips (1830 (. sd. 6.9)). A follow-up study of 22 hips with pre-arthrosis showed that only the LII was associated with progression of the disease, and an LII of 196 was the threshold value for this progression