Aims. Mechanical impingement of the iliopsoas (IP) tendon accounts for 2% to 6% of persistent postoperative pain after total hip arthroplasty (THA). The most common initiator is anterior acetabular component protrusion, where the anterior margin is not covered by anterior acetabular wall. A CT scan can be used to identify and measure this overhang; however, no threshold exists for determining symptomatic anterior IP impingement due to overhang. A case-control study was conducted in which CT scan measurements were used to define a threshold that differentiates patients with IP impingement from asymptomatic patients after THA. Methods. We analyzed the CT scans of 622 patients (758 THAs) between May 2011 and May 2020. From this population, we identified 136 patients with symptoms suggestive of IP impingement. Among them, six were subsequently excluded: three because the diagnosis was refuted intraoperatively, and three because they had another obvious cause of impingement, leaving 130 hips (130 patients) in the study (impingement) group. They were matched to a control group of 138 asymptomatic hips (138 patients) after THA. The anterior acetabular component overhang was measured on an axial CT slice based on anatomical landmarks (orthogonal to the pelvic axis). Results. The impingement group had a median overhang of 8 mm (interquartile range (IQR) 5 to 11) versus 0 mm (IQR 0 to 4) for the control group (p < 0.001). Using receiver operating characteristic curves, an overhang threshold of 4 mm was best correlated with a diagnosis of impingement (sensitivity 79%, specificity 85%; positive predictive value 75%, negative predictive value 85%). Conclusion. Pain after THA related to IP impingement can be reasonably linked to acetabular overhang if it exceeds 4 mm on a CT scan. Below this threshold, it seems logical to look for another cause of IP irritation or another reason for the pain after THA before concluding that impingement is present. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):97–103

Aims. The aim of this study was to report the meaningful values of the EuroQol five-dimension three-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) and EuroQol visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) in patients undergoing primary knee arthroplasty (KA). Methods. This is a retrospective study of patients undergoing primary KA for osteoarthritis in a university teaching hospital (Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh) (1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019). Pre- and postoperative (one-year) data were prospectively collected for 3,181 patients (median age 69.9 years (interquartile range (IQR) 64.2 to 76.1); females, n = 1,745 (54.9%); median BMI 30.1 kg/m. 2. (IQR 26.6 to 34.2)). The reliability of the EQ-5D-3L was measured using Cronbach’s alpha. Responsiveness was determined by calculating the anchor-based minimal clinically important difference (MCID), the minimal important change (MIC) (cohort and individual), the patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) predictive of satisfaction, and the minimal detectable change at 90% confidence intervals (MDC-90). Results. The EQ-5D-3L demonstrated good internal consistency with an overall Cronbach alpha of 0.75 (preoperative) and 0.88 (postoperative), respectively. The MCID for the Index score was 0.085 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.042 to 0.127) and EQ-VAS was 6.41 (95% CI 3.497 to 9.323). The MIC. COHORT. was 0.289 for the EQ-5D and 5.27 for the EQ-VAS. However, the MIC. INDIVIDUAL. for both the EQ-5D-3L Index (0.105) and EQ-VAS (-1) demonstrated poor-to-acceptable reliability. The MDC-90 was 0.023 for the EQ-5D-3L Index and 1.0 for the EQ-VAS. The PASS for the postoperative EQ-5D-3L Index and EQ-VAS scores predictive of patient satisfaction were 0.708 and 77.0, respectively. Conclusion. The meaningful values of the EQ-5D-3L Index and EQ-VAS scores can be used to measure clinically relevant changes in health-related quality of life in patients undergoing primary KA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(9):619–628

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the optimal deep tissue specimen sample number for histopathological analysis in the diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). Methods. In this retrospective diagnostic study, patients undergoing revision surgery after total hip or knee arthroplasty (n = 119) between January 2015 and July 2018 were included. Multiple specimens of the periprosthetic membrane and pseudocapsule were obtained for histopathological analysis at revision arthroplasty. Based on the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) 2013 criteria, the International Consensus Meeting (ICM) 2018 criteria, and the European Bone and Joint Infection Society (EBJIS) 2021 criteria, PJI was defined. Using a mixed effects logistic regression model, the sensitivity and specificity of the histological diagnosis were calculated. The optimal number of periprosthetic tissue specimens for histopathological analysis was determined by applying the Youden index. Results. Based on the EBJIS criteria (excluding histology), 46 (39%) patients were classified as infected. Four to six specimens showed the highest Youden index (four specimens: 0.631; five: 0.634; six: 0.632). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of five tissue specimens were 76.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 67.6 to 81.4), 86.8% (95% CI 81.3 to 93.5), 66.0% (95% CI 53.2 to 78.7), and 84.3% (95% CI 79.4 to 89.3), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated with 0.81 (as a function of the number of tissue specimens). Applying the ICM and IDSA criteria (excluding histology), 40 (34%) and 32 (27%) patients were categorized as septic. Three to five specimens had the highest Youden index (ICM 3: 0.648; 4: 0.651; 5: 0.649) (IDSA 3: 0.627; 4: 0.629; 5: 0.625). Conclusion. Three to six tissue specimens of the periprosthetic membrane and pseudocapsule should be collected at revision arthroplasty and analyzed by a pathologist experienced and skilled in interpreting periprosthetic tissue. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):158–165

Aims. The aim of this study was to capture 12-month outcomes from a representative multicentre cohort of patients undergoing total ankle arthroplasty (TAA), describe the pattern of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) at 12 months, and identify predictors of these outcome measures. Methods. Patients listed for a primary TAA at 19 NHS hospitals between February 2016 and October 2017 were eligible. PROMs data were collected preoperatively and at six and 12 months including: Manchester-Oxford Foot and Ankle Questionnaire (MOXFQ (foot and ankle)) and the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L). Radiological pre- and postoperative data included Kellgren-Lawrence score and implant position measurement. This was supplemented by data from the National Joint Registry through record linkage to determine: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade at index procedure; indication for surgery, index ankle previous fracture; tibial hind foot alignment; additional surgery at the time of TAA; and implant type. Multivariate regression models assessed outcomes, and the relationship between MOXFQ and EQ-5D-5L outcomes, with patient characteristics. Results. Data from 238 patients were analyzed. There were significant improvements in MOXFQ and EQ-5D-5L among people who underwent TAA at six- and 12-month assessments compared with preoperative scores (p < 0.001). Most improvement occurred between preoperative and six months, with little further improvement at 12 months. A greater improvement in MOXFQ outcome postoperatively was associated with older age and more advanced radiological signs of ankle osteoarthritis at baseline. Conclusion. TAA significantly benefits patients with end-stage ankle disease. The lack of substantial further overall change between six and 12 months suggests that capturing PROMs at six months is sufficient to assess the success of the procedure. Older patients and those with advanced radiological disease had the greater gains. These outcome predictors can be used to counsel younger patients and those with earlier ankle disease on the expectations of TAA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):895–904

Aims. The presence of facet tropism has been correlated with an elevated susceptibility to lumbar disc pathology. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of facet tropism on chronic lumbosacral discogenic pain through the analysis of clinical data and finite element modelling (FEM). Methods. Retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical data, with a specific focus on the spinal units displaying facet tropism, utilizing FEM analysis for motion simulation. We studied 318 intervertebral levels in 156 patients who had undergone provocation discography. Significant predictors of clinical findings were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Loading conditions were applied in FEM simulations to mimic biomechanical effects on intervertebral discs, focusing on maximal displacement and intradiscal pressures, gauged through alterations in disc morphology and physical stress. Results. A total of 144 discs were categorized as ‘positive’ and 174 discs as ‘negative’ by the results of provocation discography. The presence of defined facet tropism (OR 3.451, 95% CI 1.944 to 6.126) and higher Adams classification (OR 2.172, 95% CI 1.523 to 3.097) were important predictive parameters for discography-‘positive’ discs. FEM simulations showcased uneven stress distribution and significant disc displacement in tropism-affected discs, where loading exacerbated stress on facets with greater angles. During varied positions, notably increased stress and displacement were observed in discs with tropism compared to those with normal facet structure. Conclusion. Our findings indicate that facet tropism can contribute to disc herniation and changes in intradiscal pressure, potentially exacerbating disc degeneration due to altered force distribution and increased mechanical stress. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):452–461

Aims. Accurate diagnosis of chronic periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) presents a significant challenge for hip surgeons. Preoperative diagnosis is not always easy to establish, making the intraoperative decision-making process crucial in deciding between one- and two-stage revision total hip arthroplasty (THA). Calprotectin is a promising point-of-care novel biomarker that has displayed high accuracy in detecting PJI. We aimed to evaluate the utility of intraoperative calprotectin lateral flow immunoassay (LFI) in THA patients with suspected chronic PJI. Methods. The study included 48 THAs in 48 patients with a clinical suspicion of PJI, but who did not meet European Bone and Joint Infection Society (EBJIS) PJI criteria preoperatively, out of 105 patients undergoing revision THA at our institution for possible PJI between November 2020 and December 2022. Intraoperatively, synovial fluid calprotectin was measured with LFI. Cases with calprotectin levels ≥ 50 mg/l were considered infected and treated with two-stage revision THA; in negative cases, one-stage revision was performed. At least five tissue cultures were obtained; the implants removed were sent for sonication. Results. Calprotectin was positive (≥ 50 mg/l) in 27 cases; out of these, 25 had positive tissue cultures and/or sonication. Calprotectin was negative in 21 cases. There was one false negative case, which had positive tissue cultures. Calprotectin showed an area under the curve of 0.917, sensitivity of 96.2%, specificity of 90.9%, positive predictive value of 92.6%, negative predictive value of 95.2%, positive likelihood ratio of 10.6, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.04. Overall, 45/48 patients were correctly diagnosed and treated by our algorithm, which included intraoperative calprotectin measurement. This yielded a 93.8% concordance with postoperatively assessed EBJIS criteria. Conclusion. Calprotectin can be a valuable tool in facilitating the intraoperative decision-making process for cases in which chronic PJI is suspected and diagnosis cannot be established preoperatively. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5 Supple B):118–124

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to determine the ten-year outcome following surgical treatment for femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). We assessed whether the evolution of practice from open to arthroscopic techniques influenced outcomes and tested whether any patient, radiological, or surgical factors were associated with outcome. Methods. Prospectively collected data of a consecutive single-surgeon cohort, operated for FAI between January 2005 and January 2015, were retrospectively studied. The cohort comprised 393 hips (365 patients; 71% male (n = 278)), with a mean age of 34.5 years (SD 10.0). Over the study period, techniques evolved from open surgical dislocation (n = 94) to a combined arthroscopy-Hueter technique (HA + Hueter; n = 61) to a pure arthroscopic technique (HA; n = 238). Outcome measures of interest included modes of failures, complications, reoperation, and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Demographic, radiological, and surgical factors were tested for possible association with outcome. Results. At a mean follow-up of 7.5 years (SD 2.5), there were 43 failures in 38 hips (9.7%), with 35 hips (8.9%) having one failure mode, one hip (0.25%) having two failure modes, and two hips (0.5%) having three failure modes. The five- and ten-year hip joint preservation rates were 94.1% (SD 1.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 91.8 to 96.4) and 90.4% (SD 1.7%; 95% CI 87.1 to 93.7), respectively. Inferior survivorship was detected in the surgical dislocation group. Age at surgery, Tönnis grade, cartilage damage, and absence of rim-trimming were associated with improved preservation rates. Only Tönnis grade was an independent predictor of hip preservation. All PROMs improved postoperatively. Factors associated with improvement in PROMs included higher lateral centre-edge and α angles, and lower retroversion index and BMI. Conclusion. FAI surgery provides lasting improvement in function and a joint preservation rate of 90.4% at ten years. The evolution of practice was not associated with inferior outcome. Since degree of arthritis is the primary predictor of outcome, improved awareness and screening may lead to prompt intervention and better outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):804–814

Aims. A novel enhanced cement fixation (EF) tibial implant with deeper cement pockets and a more roughened bonding surface was released to market for an existing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) system.This randomized controlled trial assessed fixation of the both the EF (ATTUNE S+) and standard (Std; ATTUNE S) using radiostereometric analysis. Methods. Overall, 50 subjects were randomized (21 EF-TKA and 23 Std-TKA in the final analysis), and had follow-up visits at six weeks, and six, 12, and 24 months to assess migration of the tibial component. Low viscosity bone cement with tobramycin was used in a standardized fashion for all subjects. Patient-reported outcome measure data was captured at preoperative and all postoperative visits. Results. The patient cohort mean age was 66 years (SD seven years), 59% were female, and the mean BMI was 32 kg/m. 2. (SD 6 kg/m. 2. ). Mean two-year subsidence of the EF-TKA was 0.056 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.025 to 0.086) versus 0.006 mm (95% CI -0.029 to 0.040) for the Std-TKA, and the two-year maximum total point motion (MTPM) was 0.285 mm (95% upper confidence limit (UCL) ≤ 0.363) versus 0.346 mm (95% UCL ≤ 0.432), respectively, for a mean difference of -0.061 mm (95% CI -0.196 to 0.074). Inducible displacement also did not differ between groups. The MTPMs between 12 and 24 months for each group was below the published threshold of 0.2 mm for predicting early aseptic loosening (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion. Both the enhanced fixation and the standard tibial implant design showed fixation with a predicted low risk of long-term aseptic loosening. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):20–27

Aims. The incidence of bone metastases is between 20% to 75% depending on the type of cancer. As treatment improves, the number of patients who need surgical intervention is increasing. Identifying patients with a shorter life expectancy would allow surgical intervention with more durable reconstructions to be targeted to those most likely to benefit. While previous scoring systems have focused on surgical and oncological factors, there is a need to consider comorbidities and the physiological state of the patient, as these will also affect outcome. The primary aim of this study was to create a scoring system to estimate survival time in patients with bony metastases and to determine which factors may adversely affect this. Methods. This was a retrospective study which included all patients who had presented for surgery with metastatic bone disease. The data collected included patient, surgical, and oncological variables. Univariable and multivariable analysis identified which factors were associated with a survival time of less than six months and less than one year. A model to predict survival based on these factors was developed using Cox regression. Results. A total of 164 patients were included with a median survival time of 1.6 years (interquartile range 0.5 to 3.1) after surgery. On multivariable analysis, a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (p < 0.001), a high white cell count (p = 0.002), hyponatraemia (p = 0.001), a preoperative resting heart rate of > 100 bpm (p = 0.052), and the type of primary cancer (p = 0.026) remained significant predictors of reduced survival time. The predictive model developed showed good discrimination and calibration to predict both six- and 12-month survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. Conclusion. In addition to surgical and oncological factors, the level of comorbidity and physiological state of the patient has a significant impact on survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. These factors should be considered when assessing the appropriateness of surgical intervention. This is the first study to examine other patient factors alongside surgical and oncological data to identify a relationship between these and survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(11):1725–1730

Aims. The main objective of this study was to examine whether the Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) demonstrated floor or ceiling effects when used to measure outcomes following shoulder arthroplasty in a large national cohort. Secondary objectives were to assess its pain and function subscales, and to identify independent predictors for patients achieving a postoperative ceiling score following shoulder arthroplasty. Methods. Secondary database analysis of the National Joint Registry (NJR), which included 48,270 patients undergoing shoulder arthroplasty, was conducted. The primary outcome measure was the OSS. Secondary outcome measures were the OSS-Function Component Subscale and OSS-Pain Component Subscale. Floor and ceiling effects were considered to be present if > 15% of patients scored either the lowest or highest possible score. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors for scoring the highest possible OSS score postoperatively. Results. Preoperatively, 1% of patients achieved the lowest possible OSS score (0) and 0.4% of patients achieved the highest possible score (48). Postoperatively, < 1% of patients achieved the lowest score at all timepoints, but the percentage achieving the highest score at six months was 8.3%, at three years 16.9%, and at five years 17%. Male patients, those aged between 60 and 89 years, and those undergoing an anatomical total shoulder arthroplasty (ATSA) were more likely to contribute to the ceiling effect seen in the OSS questionnaire. Pain and function subscales exhibited greater ceiling effects at three years and five years when compared with the overall OSS questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis showed that sex, procedure type, and preoperative OSS score were independent predictors for scoring the highest possible OSS at years. Conclusion. Based on NJR patient-reported outcome measures data, the OSS does not exhibit a ceiling effect at six months, but does at three years and five years, in part due to outcome scores of ATSA. Preoperative OSS, age, male sex, and ATSA are independent predictors of achieving a ceiling score. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(11):1717–1724

Aims. To determine the trajectories of patient reported pain and functional disability over five years following total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A prospective, longitudinal cohort sub-study within the National Joint Registry (NJR) was undertaken. In all, 20,089 patients who underwent primary THA and 22,489 who underwent primary TKA between 2009 and 2010 were sent Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS) questionnaires at six months, and one, three, and five years postoperatively. OHS and OKS were disaggregated into pain and function subscales. A k-means clustering procedure assigned each patient to a longitudinal trajectory group for pain and function. Ordinal regression was used to predict trajectory group membership using baseline OHS and OKS score, age, BMI, index of multiple deprivation, sex, ethnicity, geographical location, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Results. Data described two discrete trajectories for pain and function: ‘level 1’ responders (around 70% of cases) in whom a high level of improvement is sustained over five years, and ‘level 2’ responders who had sustained improvement, but at a lower level. Baseline patient variables were only weak predictors of pain trajectory and modest predictors of function trajectory. Those with worse baseline pain and function tended to show a greater likelihood of following a ‘level 2’ trajectory. Six-month patient-reported outcome measures data reliably predicted the class of five-year outcome trajectory for both pain and function. Conclusion. The available preoperative patient variables were not reliable predictors of postoperative pain and function after THA and TKA. Reviewing patient outcomes at six months postoperatively is a reliable indicator of outcome at five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1111–1118

Aims. This study used an artificial neural network (ANN) model to determine the most important pre- and perioperative variables to predict same-day discharge in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. Data for this study were collected from the National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database from the year 2018. Patients who received a primary, elective, unilateral TKA with a diagnosis of primary osteoarthritis were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. The ANN model was compared to a logistic regression model, which is a conventional machine-learning algorithm. Variables collected from 28,742 patients were analyzed based on their contribution to hospital length of stay. Results. The predictability of the ANN model, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.801, was similar to the logistic regression model (AUC = 0.796) and identified certain variables as important factors to predict same-day discharge. The ten most important factors favouring same-day discharge in the ANN model include preoperative sodium, preoperative international normalized ratio, BMI, age, anaesthesia type, operating time, dyspnoea status, functional status, race, anaemia status, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Six of these variables were also found to be significant on logistic regression analysis. Conclusion. Both ANN modelling and logistic regression analysis revealed clinically important factors in predicting patients who can undergo safely undergo same-day discharge from an outpatient TKA. The ANN model provides a beneficial approach to help determine which perioperative factors can predict same-day discharge as of 2018 perioperative recovery protocols. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(8):1358–1366

The February 2023 Trauma Roundup. 360. looks at: Masquelet versus bone transport in infected nonunion of tibia; Hyperbaric Oxygen for Lower Limb Trauma (HOLLT): an international multicentre randomized clinical trial; Is the T-shaped acetabular fracture really a “T”?; What causes cut-out of proximal femur nail anti-rotation device in intertrochanteric fractures?; Is the common femoral artery at risk with percutaneous fragility pelvis fixation?; Anterior pelvic ring pattern predicts displacement in lateral compression fractures; Differences in age-related characteristics among elderly patients with hip fractures

The August 2023 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Using machine learning to predict venous thromboembolism and major bleeding events following total joint arthroplasty; Antibiotic length in revision total hip arthroplasty; Preoperative colonization and worse outcomes; Short stem cemented total hip arthroplasty; What are the outcomes of one- versus two-stage revisions in the UK?; To cement or not to cement? The best approach in hemiarthroplasty; Similar re-revisions in cemented and cementless femoral revisions for periprosthetic femoral fractures in total hip arthroplasty; Are hip precautions still needed?

The June 2024 Children’s orthopaedics Roundup. 360. looks at: Proximal femoral unicameral bone cysts: is ESIN the answer?; Hybrid-mesh casts in the conservative management of paediatric supracondylar humeral fractures: a randomized controlled trial; Rate and risk factors for contralateral slippage in adolescents treated for slipped capital femoral epiphysis; CRP predicts the need to escalate care after initial debridement for musculoskeletal infection; Genu valgum in paediatric patients presenting with patellofemoral instability; Nusinersen therapy changed the natural course of spinal muscular atrophy type 1: what about spine and hip?; The necessity of ulnar nerve exploration and translocation in open reduction of medial humeral epicondyle fractures in children

The October 2023 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome at ten years – how do athletes do?; Venous thromboembolism in patients following total joint replacement: are transfusions to blame?; What changes in pelvic sagittal tilt occur 20 years after total hip arthroplasty?; Can stratified care in hip arthroscopy predict successful and unsuccessful outcomes?; Hip replacement into your nineties; Can large language models help with follow-up?; The most taxing of revisions – proximal femoral replacement for periprosthetic joint infection – what’s the benefit of dual mobility?

The February 2023 Children’s orthopaedics Roundup. 360. looks at: Trends in management of paediatric distal radius buckle fractures; Pelvic osteotomy in patients with previous sacral-alar-iliac fixation; Sacral-alar-iliac fixation in patients with previous pelvic osteotomy; Idiopathic toe walking: an update on natural history, diagnosis, and treatment; A prediction model for treatment decisions in distal radial physeal injuries: a multicentre retrospective study; Angular deformities after percutaneous epiphysiodesis for leg length discrepancy; MRI assessment of anterior coverage is predictive of future radiological coverage; Predictive scoring for recurrent patellar instability after a first-time patellar dislocation

The October 2023 Spine Roundup. 360. looks at: Cutting through surgical smoke: the science of cleaner air in spinal operations; Unlocking success: key factors in thoracic spine decompression and fusion for ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament; Deep learning algorithm for identifying cervical cord compression due to degenerative canal stenosis on radiography; Surgeon experience influences robotics learning curve for minimally invasive lumbar fusion; Decision-making algorithm for the surgical treatment of degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis of L4/L5; Response to preoperative steroid injections predicts surgical outcomes in patients undergoing fusion for isthmic spondylolisthesis

Aims. The modified Radiological Union Scale for Tibia (mRUST) fractures score was developed in order to assess progress to union and define a numerical assessment of fracture healing of metadiaphyseal fractures. This score has been shown to be valuable in predicting radiological union; however, there is no information on the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of this index for various cut-off scores. The aim of this study is to evaluate sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and cut-off points of the mRUST score for the diagnosis of metadiaphyseal fractures healing. Methods. A cohort of 146 distal femur fractures were retrospectively identified at our institution. After excluding AO/OTA type B fractures, nonunions, follow-up less than 12 weeks, and patients aged less than 16 years, 104 sets of radiographs were included for analysis. Anteroposterior and lateral femur radiographs at six weeks, 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and final follow-up were separately scored by three surgeons using the mRUST score. The sensitivity and specificity of mean mRUST score were calculated using clinical and further radiological findings as a gold standard for ultimate fracture healing. A receiver operating characteristic curve was also performed to determine the cut-off points at each time point. Results. The mean mRUST score of ten at 24 weeks revealed a 91.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 92.6% accuracy of predicting ultimate fracture healing. A cut-off point of 13 points revealed 41.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 46.9% accuracy at the same time point. Conclusion. The mRUST score of ten points at 24 weeks can be used as a viable screening method with the highest sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for healing of metadiaphyseal femur fractures. However, the cut-off point of 13 increases the specificity to 100%, but decreases sensitivity. Furthermore, the mRUST score should not be used at six weeks, as results show an inability to accurately predict eventual fracture healing at this time point. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):796–805

Aims. With novel promising therapies potentially limiting progression of Dupuytren’s disease (DD), better patient stratification is needed. We aimed to quantify DD development and progression after seven years in a population-based cohort, and to identify factors predictive of disease development or progression. Methods. All surviving participants from our previous prevalence study were invited to participate in the current prospective cohort study. Participants were examined for presence of DD and Iselin’s classification was applied. They were asked to complete comprehensive questionnaires. Disease progression was defined as advancement to a further Iselin stage or surgery. Potential predictive factors were assessed using multivariable regression analyses. Of 763 participants in our original study, 398 were available for further investigation seven years later. Results. We identified 143/398 (35.9%) participants with DD, of whom 56 (39.2%) were newly diagnosed. Overall, 20/93 (21.5%) previously affected participants had disease progression, while 6/93 (6.5%) patients showed disease regression. Disease progression occurred more often in patients who initially had advanced disease. Multivariable regression analyses revealed that both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD are independent predictors of disease progression. Previous hand injury predicts development of DD. Conclusion. Disease progression occurred in 21.5% of DD patients in our study. The higher the initial disease stage, the greater the proportion of participants who had disease progression at follow-up. Both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD predict disease progression. These patient-specific factors may be used to identify patients who might benefit from treatment that prevents progression. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):704–710