Although the association between femoroacetabular impingement and osteoarthritis is established, it is not yet clear which hips have the greatest likelihood to progress rapidly to end-stage disease. We investigated the effect of several radiological parameters, each indicative of a structural aspect of the hip joint, on the progression of osteoarthritis. Pairs of plain anteroposterior pelvic radiographs, taken at least ten years apart, of 43 patients (43 hips) with a pistol-grip deformity of the femur and mild (Tönnis grade 1) or moderate (Tönnis grade 2) osteoarthritis were reviewed. Of the 43 hips, 28 showed evidence of progression of osteoarthritis. There was no significant difference in the prevalence of progression between hips with initial Tönnis grade 1 or grade 2 osteoarthritis (p = 0.31). Comparison of the hips with and without progression of arthritis revealed a significant difference in the mean medial proximal femoral angle (81° vs 87°, p = 0.004) and the presence of the posterior wall sign (39% vs 7%, p = 0.02) only. A logistic regression model was constructed to predict the influence of these two variables in the development of osteoarthritis. Mild to moderate osteoarthritis in hips with a pistol-grip deformity will not progress rapidly in all patients. In one-third, progression will take more than ten years to manifest, if ever. The individual geometry of the proximal femur and acetabulum partly influences this phenomenon. A hip with cam impingement is not always destined for end-stage arthritic degeneration

Pulmonary embolism is a serious complication after arthroscopy of the knee, about which there is limited information. We have identified the incidence and risk factors for symptomatic pulmonary embolism after arthroscopic procedures on outpatients. The New York State Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database was used to review arthroscopic procedures of the knee performed on outpatients between 1997 and 2006, and identify those admitted within 90 days of surgery with an associated diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. Potential risk factors included age, gender, complexity of surgery, operating time defined as the total time that the patient was actually in the operating room, history of cancer, comorbidities, and the type of anaesthesia. We identified 374 033 patients who underwent 418 323 outpatient arthroscopies of the knee. There were 117 events of pulmonary embolism (2.8 cases for every 10 000 arthroscopies). Logistic regression analysis showed that age and operating time had significant dose-response increases in risk (p < 0.001) for a subsequent admission with a pulmonary embolism. Female gender was associated with a 1.5-fold increase in risk (p = 0.03), and a history of cancer with a threefold increase (p = 0.05). These risk factors can be used when obtaining informed consent before surgery, to elevate the level of clinical suspicion of pulmonary embolism in patients at risk, and to establish a rationale for prospective studies to test the clinical benefit of thromboprophylaxis in high-risk patients

A prospective study was performed to develop a clinical prediction rule that incorporated demographic and clinical factors predictive of a fracture of the scaphoid. Of 260 consecutive patients with a clinically suspected or radiologically confirmed scaphoid fracture, 223 returned for evaluation two weeks after injury and formed the basis of our analysis. Patients were evaluated within 72 hours of injury and at approximately two and six weeks after injury using clinical assessment and standard radiographs. Demographic data and the results of seven specific tests in the clinical examination were recorded. There were 116 (52%) men and their mean age was 33 years (13 to 95; . sd. 17.9). In 62 patients (28%) a scaphoid fracture was confirmed. A logistic regression model identified male gender (p = 0.002), sports injury (p = 0.004), anatomical snuff box pain on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury (p < 0.001), and scaphoid tubercle tenderness at two weeks (p < 0.001) as independent predictors of fracture. All patients with no pain at the anatomical snuff box on ulnar deviation of the wrist within 72 hours of injury did not have a fracture (n = 72, 32%). With four independently significant factors positive, the risk of fracture was 91%. Our study has demonstrated that clinical prediction rules have a considerable influence on the probability of a suspected scaphoid fracture. This will help improve the use of supplementary investigations where the diagnosis remains in doubt

There is a high risk of venous thromboembolism when patients are immobilised following trauma. The combination of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) with graduated compression stockings is frequently used in orthopaedic surgery to try and prevent this, but a relatively high incidence of thromboembolic events remains. Mechanical devices which perform continuous passive motion imitate contractions and increase the volume and velocity of venous flow. In this study 227 trauma patients were randomised to receive either treatment with the Arthroflow device and LMWH or only with the latter. The Arthroflow device passively extends and plantarflexes the feet. Patients were assessed initially by venous-occlusion plethysmography, compression ultrasonography and continuous wave Doppler, which were repeated weekly without knowledge of the category of randomisation. Those who showed evidence of deep-vein thrombosis underwent venography for confirmation. The incidence of deep-vein thrombosis was 25% in the LMWH group compared with 3.6% in those who had additional treatment with the Arthroflow device (p < 0.001). There were no substantial complications or problems of non-compliance with the Arthroflow device. Logistic regression analysis of the risk factors of deep-vein thrombosis showed high odds ratios for operation (4.1), immobilisation (4.3), older than 40 years of age (2.8) and obesity (2.2)

We report gender differences in the epidemiology and outcome after hip fracture from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit, with data on admission and at 120 days follow-up from 22 orthopaedic units across the country between 1998 and 2005. Outcome measures included early mortality, length of hospital stay, 120-day residence and mobility. A multivariate logistic regression model compared outcomes between genders. The study comprised 25 649 patients of whom 5674 (22%) were men and 19 975 (78%) were women. The men were in poorer pre-operative health, despite being younger at presentation (mean 77 years (60 to 101) vs 81 years (50 to 106)). Pre-fracture residence and mobility were similar between genders. Multivariate analysis indicated that the men were less likely to return to their home or mobilise independently at the 120-day follow-up. Mortality at 30 and 120 days was higher for men, even after differences in case-mix variables between genders were considered

We undertook a study to determine the rates of infection and revision of total knee replacement (TKR) in patients with renal failure, renal transplantation and those undergoing renal dialysis in Scotland. The overall early and late infection rates were 1.10% and 2.19% compared with 1.06% and 2.01%, respectively, for non-renal patients. Patients with renal failure had a significantly increased risk of early infection (1.6%, relative risk 1.52, p = 0.002) and late infection (4.47%, relative risk 2.22, p < 0.001). Those on renal dialysis had significantly increased risks of late infection (8.03%, relative risk 3.99, p < 0.001) and early revision (3.70%, relative risk 4.40, p < 0.001). Renal transplant patients had a significantly increased risk of late infection, regardless of whether renal transplantation occurred before TKR (9.09%, relative risk 4.517, p = 0.027) or at any time (8.0%, relative risk 3.975, p = 0.047). There were significantly increased rates of comorbidities associated with infection for all the renal patient groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that renal failure and renal dialysis were independent risk factors for early infection and revision, respectively

Orthopaedic surgeons have accepted various radiological signs to be representative of acetabular retroversion, which is the main characteristic of focal over-coverage in patients with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). Using a validated method for radiological analysis, we assessed the relevance of these signs to predict intra-articular lesions in 93 patients undergoing surgery for FAI. A logistic regression model to predict chondral damage showed that an acetabular retroversion index (ARI) > 20%, a derivative of the well-known cross-over sign, was an independent predictor (p = 0.036). However, ARI was less significant than the Tönnis classification (p = 0.019) and age (p = 0.031) in the same model. ARI was unable to discriminate between grades of chondral lesions, while the type of cam lesion (p = 0.004) and age (p = 0.047) were able to. Other widely recognised signs of acetabular retroversion, such as the ischial spine sign, the posterior wall sign or the cross-over sign were irrelevant according to our analysis. Regardless of its secondary predictive role, an ARI > 20% appears to be the most clinically relevant radiological sign of acetabular retroversion in symptomatic patients with FAI. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:893–9

After implementation of a ‘fast-track’ rehabilitation protocol in our hospital, mean length of hospital stay for primary total hip arthroplasty decreased from 4.6 to 2.9 nights for unselected patients. However, despite this reduction there was still a wide range across the patients’ hospital duration. The purpose of this study was to identify which specific patient characteristics influence length of stay after successful implementation of a ‘fast-track’ rehabilitation protocol. A total of 477 patients (317 female and 160 male, mean age 71.0 years; 39.3 to 92.6, mean BMI 27.0 kg/m. 2. ;18.8 to 45.2) who underwent primary total hip arthroplasty between 1 February 2011 and 31 January 2013, were included in this retrospective cohort study. A length of stay greater than the median was considered as an increased duration. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify potential factors associated with increased durations. Median length of stay was two nights (interquartile range 1), and the mean length of stay 2.9 nights (1 to 75). In all, 266 patients had a length of stay ≤ two nights. Age (odds ratio (OR) 2.46; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.72 to 3.51; p <  0.001), living situation (alone vs living together with cohabitants, OR 2.09; 95% CI 1.33 to 3.30; p = 0.002) and approach (anterior approach vs lateral, OR 0.29; 95% CI 0.19 to 0.46; p <  0.001) (posterolateral approach vs lateral, OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.55; p < 0.001) were factors that were significantly associated with increased length of stay in the multivariable logistic regression model. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:19–23

Narrowing of the femoral neck after resurfacing arthroplasty of the hip has been described previously in both cemented and uncemented hip resurfacing. The natural history of narrowing of the femoral neck is unknown. We retrospectively measured the diameter of the femoral neck in a series of 163 Birmingham hip resurfacings in 163 patients up to a maximum of six years after operation to determine the extent and progression of narrowing. There were 105 men and 58 women with a mean age of 52 years (18 to 82). At a mean follow-up of five years, the mean Harris hip score was 94.8 (47 to 100) and the mean flexion of the hip 112.5° (80° to 160°). There was some narrowing of the femoral neck in 77% (125) of the patients reviewed, and in 27.6% (45) the narrowing exceeded 10% of the diameter of the neck. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant association (chi-squared test (derived from logistic regression) p = 0.01) of narrowing with female gender and a valgus femoral neck/shaft angle. There was no significant association between the range of movement, position or size of the component or radiological lucent lines and narrowing of the neck (chi-squared test; p = 0.10 (flexion), p = 0.08 (size of femoral component), p = 0.09 (size of acetabular component), p = 0.71 (femoral component angulation), p = 0.99 (lucent lines)). There was no significant difference between the diameter of the neck at a mean of three years (2.5 to 3.5) and that at five years (4.5 to 5.5), indicating that any change in the diameter of the neck had stabilised by three years (sign rank test, p = 0.60). We conclude that narrowing of the femoral neck which is found with the Birmingham hip resurfacing arthroplasty is in most cases associated with no adverse clinical or radiological outcome up to a maximum of six years after the initial operation

Seligman’s theory of causal attribution predicts that patients with a pessimistic explanatory style will have less favourable health outcomes. We identified 702 patients who had undergone 894 primary total knee replacements between 1993 and 2005, who responded to follow-up surveys at two (n = 783 knee replacements) and/or five years (n = 443 knee replacements) and had also completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory long before the joint replacement (median = 16.6 and 14.5 years for two- and five-year cohorts, respectively). Scores from the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory Optimism-Pessimism scale were used to categorise patients as pessimistic (t-score > 60) or non-pessimistic (t-score ≤ 60). Multivariate logistic regression models assessing the effect of pessimistic explanatory style on pain or improvement in knee function were adjusted for gender, age, distance from the place of treatment and depression score. Pessimists reported (a) significantly more moderate or severe pain at two years with odds ratio 2.21 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12 to 4.35; p = 0.02), but not at five years when the odds ratio was 1.21 (95% CI 0.51 to 2.83; p = 0.67); and (b) less improvement in knee function at two years when the odds ratio was 0.53 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.96; p = 0.04), but not at five years when the odds ratio was 1.26 (95% CI 0.57 to 2.77; p = 0.57). No significant associations with moderate or severe limitation of activity were seen at two or five years. We conclude that a pessimistic explanatory style is associated with worse pain and functional outcomes two years after total knee replacement

We conducted a longitudinal study including patients with the same type of primary hybrid total hip replacement and evaluated patient activity and femoral osteolysis at either five or ten years post-operatively. Activity was measured using the University of California, Los Angeles scale. The primary outcome was the radiological assessment of femoral osteolysis. Secondary outcomes were revision of the femoral component for aseptic loosening and the patients’ quality of life. Of 503 hip replacements in 433 patients with a mean age of 67.7 years (30 to 91), 241 (48%) were seen at five and 262 (52%) at ten years post-operatively. Osteolytic lesions were identified in nine of 166 total hip replacements (5.4%) in patients with low activity, 21 of 279 (7.5%) with moderate activity, and 14 of 58 (24.1%) patients with high activity. The risk of osteolysis increased with participation in a greater number of sporting activities. In multivariate logistic regression adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and the inclination angle of the acetabular component, the adjusted odds ratio for osteolysis comparing high vs moderate activity was 3.6 (95% confidence interval 1.6 to 8.3). Stratification for the cementing technique revealed that lower quality cementing increased the effect of high activity on osteolysis. Revision for aseptic loosening was most frequent with high activity. Patients with the highest activity had the best outcome and highest satisfaction. In conclusion, of patients engaged in high activity, 24% had developed femoral osteolysis five to ten years post-operatively

Objectives. The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. Methods. Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models’ coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. Results. The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. Conclusions. Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2017;6:550–556

We investigated fixed flexion deformity (FFD) after total knee replacement (TKR). Data relating to 369 cruciate-retaining unilateral TKRs performed at a single institution were collected prospectively. Fixed flexion was measured pre-operatively and at one week, six months, 18 months, three years and five years after surgery. Using binary logistic regression, pre-operative FFD was a predictor of post-operative FFD > 10° at one week (p = 0.006) and six months (p = 0.003) following surgery. Gender was a predictor at one week (p = 0.0073) with 24% of women showing a FFD > 10° compared with 37% of men. We have shown that a gradual improvement in knee extension can be expected up to three years after surgery in knees with FFD. By this time residual FFD is mild or absent in the majority of patients, including those who had a severe pre-operative FFD

Aims. Our aim was to investigate the predictive factors for the development of a rebound phenomenon after temporary hemiepiphysiodesis in children with genu valgum. Patients and Methods. We studied 37 limbs with idiopathic genu valgum who were treated with hemiepiphyseal stapling, and with more than six months remaining growth at removal of the staples. All children were followed until skeletal maturity or for more than two years after removal of the staples. Results. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the rate of correction, body mass index (BMI), age, and initial valgus angle were significantly associated with a rebound phenomenon. With those characteristics, a predictive model for rebound was generated using recursive partitioning analysis. Children with a rapid rate of correction had the most frequent and severe rebound phenomenon (incidence 79%, mean 4°), whereas those with a slow rate of correction had less rebound when they had low BMI (43%, 2°) and none when the BMI was ≥ 21 kg/m. 2. . Conclusion. This is the first study to evaluate a predictive model for a rebound phenomenon after temporary hemiepiphysiodesis in children with idiopathic genu valgum. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1270–5

We investigated the variables which determine the outcome after triple osteotomy of the pelvis for the treatment of congenital dysplasia of the hip. We reviewed 51 patients (61 hips) with a median age at operation of 23 years who were treated with a Tönnis triple osteotomy. The median follow-up was six years with a minimum of two years. Eight patients (eight hips) required a revision procedure. Of the remaining 53 hips, the results were good or excellent in 36 (68%) when evaluated according to the Harris hip score (median 90 points), and 33 patients (65%) were satisfied with the procedure. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the incidence of complications such as nonunion at an osteotomy site influenced patient satisfaction (p = 0.079). The incidence of complications correlated positively with increasing patient age at operation (p = 0.004). The amount of acetabular correction did not correlate with patient satisfaction. In univariate analysis, the groups of ’satisfied’ and ‘not satisfied’ patients differed significantly in Harris hip score, age, incidence of nonunion at the osteotomy sites, complications and late revisions. In conclusion, the patient’s age at operation and the incidence of complications influence patient satisfaction after triple osteotomy, but the amount of radiologically evident acetabular correction shows no correlation to outcome

United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines recommend the use of total hip replacement (THR) for displaced intracapsular fractures of the femoral neck in cognitively intact patients, who were independently mobile prior to the injury. This study aimed to analyse the risk factors associated with revision of the implant and mortality following THR, and to quantify risk. National Joint Registry data recording a THR performed for acute fracture of the femoral neck between 2003 and 2010 were analysed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the extent to which risk of revision was related to specific covariates. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyse factors affecting peri-operative mortality (< 90 days). A total of 4323 procedures were studied. There were 80 patients who had undergone revision surgery at the time of censoring (five-year revision rate 3.25%, 95% confidence interval 2.44 to 4.07) and 137 patients (3.2%) patients died within 90 days. After adjusting for patient and surgeon characteristics, an increased risk of revision was associated with the use of cementless prostheses compared with cemented (hazard ratio (HR) 1.33, p = 0.021). Revision was independent of bearing surface and head size. The risk of mortality within 90 days was significantly increased with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade (grade 3: odds ratio (OR) 4.04, p < 0.001; grade 4/5: OR 20.26, p < 0.001; both compared with grades 1/2) and older age (≥ 75 years: OR 1.65, p = 0.025), but reduced over the study period (9% relative risk reduction per year). THR is a good option in patients aged < 75 years and with ASA 1/2. Cementation of the femoral component does not adversely affect peri-operative mortality but improves survival of the implant in the mid-term when compared with cementless femoral components. There are no benefits of using head sizes > 28 mm or bearings other than metal-on-polyethylene. More research is required to determine the benefits of THR over hemiarthroplasty in older patients and those with ASA grades > 2

Aims

Patients with proximal femoral fractures (PFFs) are often multimorbid, thus unplanned readmissions following surgery are common. We therefore aimed to analyze 30-day and one-year readmission rates, reasons for, and factors associated with, readmission risk in a cohort of patients with surgically treated PFFs across Austria.

This is a retrospective case review of 237 patients with displaced fractures of the acetabulum presenting over a ten-year period, with a minimum follow-up of two years, who were studied to test the hypothesis that the time to surgery was predictive of radiological and functional outcome and varied with the pattern of fracture. Patients were divided into two groups based on the fracture pattern: elementary or associated. The time to surgery was analysed as both a continuous and a categorical variable. The primary outcome measures were the quality of reduction and functional outcome. Logistic regression analysis was used to test our hypothesis, while controlling for potential confounding variables. For elementary fractures, an increase in the time to surgery of one day reduced the odds of an excellent/good functional result by 15% (p = 0.001) and of an anatomical reduction by 18% (p = 0.0001). For associated fractures, the odds of obtaining an excellent/good result were reduced by 19% (p = 0.0001) and an anatomical reduction by 18% (p = 0.0001) per day. When time was measured as a categorical variable, an anatomical reduction was more likely if surgery was performed within 15 days (elementary) and five days (associated). An excellent/good functional outcome was more likely when surgery was performed within 15 days (elementary) and ten days (associated). The time to surgery is a significant predictor of radiological and functional outcome for both elementary and associated displaced fractures of the acetabulum. The organisation of regional trauma services must be capable of satisfying these time-dependent requirements to achieve optimal patient outcomes

Aims

Machine-learning (ML) prediction models in orthopaedic trauma hold great promise in assisting clinicians in various tasks, such as personalized risk stratification. However, an overview of current applications and critical appraisal to peer-reviewed guidelines is lacking. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide an overview of current ML prediction models in orthopaedic trauma; 2) evaluate the completeness of reporting following the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement; and 3) assess the risk of bias following the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) tool.

Aims

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether achieving medial joint opening, as measured by the change in the joint line convergence angle (∆JLCA), is a better predictor of clinical outcomes after high tibial osteotomy (HTO) compared with the mechanical axis deviation, and to find individualized targets for the redistribution of load that reflect bony alignment, joint laxity, and surgical technique.