Early and accurate prediction of hospital length-of-stay (LOS) in patients undergoing knee replacement is important for economic and operational reasons. Few studies have systematically developed a multivariable model to predict LOS. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1609 patients aged ≥ 50 years who underwent elective, primary total or unicompartmental knee replacements. Pre-operative candidate predictors included patient demographics, knee function, self-reported measures, surgical factors and discharge plans. In order to develop the model, multivariable regression with bootstrap internal validation was used. The median LOS for the sample was four days (interquartile range 4 to 5). Statistically significant predictors of longer stay included older age, greater number of comorbidities, less knee flexion range of movement, frequent feelings of being down and depressed, greater walking aid support required, total (versus unicompartmental) knee replacement, bilateral surgery, low-volume surgeon, absence of carer at home, and expectation to receive step-down care. For ease of use, these ten variables were used to construct a nomogram-based prediction model which showed adequate predictive accuracy (optimism-corrected R² = 0.32) and calibration. If externally validated, a prediction model using easily and routinely obtained pre-operative measures may be used to predict absolute LOS in patients following knee replacement and help to better manage these patients.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1490–6.

Several studies have reported the rate of post-operative mortality after the surgical treatment of a fracture of the hip, but few data are available regarding the delayed morbidity. In this prospective study, we identified 568 patients who underwent surgery for a fracture of the hip and who were followed for one year. Multivariate analysis was carried out to identify possible predictors of mortality and morbidity. The 30-day, four-month and one-year rates of mortality were 4.3%, 11.4%, and 18.8%, respectively. General complications and pre-operative comorbidities represented the basic predictors of mortality at any time interval (p < 0.01). In-hospital, four-month and one-year general complications occurred in 29.4%, 18.6% and 6.7% of patients, respectively. After adjusting for confounding variables, comorbidities and poor cognitive status determined the likelihood of early and delayed general complications, respectively (p < 0.001). Operative delay was the main predictor of the length of hospital stay (p < 0.001) and was directly related to in-hospital (p = 0.017) and four-month complications (p = 0.008).

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:383–90

A national, multi-centre study was designed in which a questionnaire quantifying the degree of patient satisfaction and residual symptoms in patients following total knee replacement (TKR) was administered by an independent, blinded third party survey centre. A total of 90% of patients reported satisfaction with the overall functioning of their knee, but 66% felt their knee to be ‘normal’, with the reported incidence of residual symptoms and functional problems ranging from 33% to 54%. Female patients and patients from low-income households had increased odds of reporting dissatisfaction. Neither the use of contemporary implant designs (gender-specific, high-flex, rotating platform) or custom cutting guides (CCG) with a neutral mechanical axis target improved patient-perceived outcomes. However, use of a CCG to perform a so-called kinematically aligned TKR showed a trend towards more patients reporting their knee to feel ‘normal’ when compared with a so called mechanically aligned TKR

This data shows a degree of dissatisfaction and residual symptoms following TKR, and that several recent modifications in implant design and surgical technique have not improved the current situation.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B(11 Suppl A):96–100.

In 1994 a cerebral palsy (CP) register and healthcare programme was established in southern Sweden with the primary aim of preventing dislocation of the hip in these children.

The results from the first ten years were published in 2005 and showed a decrease in the incidence of dislocation of the hip, from 8% in a historical control group of 103 children born between 1990 and 1991 to 0.5% in a group of 258 children born between 1992 and 1997. These two cohorts have now been re-evaluated and an additional group of 431 children born between 1998 and 2007 has been added.

By 1 January 2014, nine children in the control group, two in the first study group and none in the second study group had developed a dislocated hip (p < 0.001). The two children in the first study group who developed a dislocated hip were too unwell to undergo preventive surgery. Every child with a dislocated hip reported severe pain, at least periodically, and four underwent salvage surgery. Of the 689 children in the study groups, 91 (13%) underwent preventive surgery.

A population-based hip surveillance programme enables the early identification and preventive treatment, which can result in a significantly lower incidence of dislocation of the hip in children with CP.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014; 96-B:1546–52.

The relationship between post-operative bone density and subsequent failure of total knee replacement (TKR) is not known. This retrospective study aimed to determine the relationship between bone density and failure, both overall and according to failure mechanism. All 54 aseptic failures occurring in 50 patients from 7760 consecutive primary cemented TKRs between 1983 and 2004 were matched with non-failing TKRs, and 47 failures in 44 patients involved tibial failures with the matching characteristics of age (65.1 for failed and 69.8 for non-failed), gender (70.2% female), diagnosis (93.6% OA), date of operation, bilaterality, pre-operative alignment (0.4 and 0.3 respectively), and body mass index (30.2 and 30.0 respectively). In each case, the density of bone beneath the tibial component was assessed at each follow-up interval using standardised, calibrated radiographs. Failing knees were compared with controls both overall and, as a subgroup analysis, by failure mechanism. Knees were compared with controls using univariable linear regression.

Significant and continuous elevation in tibial density was found in knees that eventually failed by medial collapse (p < 0.001) and progressive radiolucency (p < 0.001) compared with controls, particularly in the medial region of the tibia. Knees failing due to ligamentous instability demonstrated an initial decline in density (p = 0.0152) followed by a non-decreasing density over time (p = 0.034 for equivalence). Non-failing knees reported a decline in density similar to that reported previously using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). Differences between failing and non-failing knees were observable as early as two months following surgery. This tool may be used to identify patients at risk of failure following TKR, but more validation work is needed.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1503–9.

Most of the literature on surgical site infections following the surgical treatment of fractures of the ankle is based on small series of patients, focusing on diabetics or the elderly. None have described post-operative functional scores in those patients who develop an infection. We performed an age- and gender-matched case–control study to identify patient- and surgery-related risk factors for surgical site infection following open reduction and internal fixation of a fracture of the ankle. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant risk factors for infection and to calculate odds ratios (OR). Function was assessed using the Olerud and Molander Ankle Score. The incidence of infection was 4% (29/717) and 1.1% (8/717) were deep infections. The median ankle score was significantly lower in the infection group compared with the control group (60 vs 90, Mann–Whitney test p < 0.0001). Multivariate regression analysis showed that diabetes (OR = 15, p = 0.031), nursing home residence (OR = 12, p = 0.018) and Weber C fractures (OR = 4, p = 0.048) were significant risk factors for infection.

A low incidence of infection following open reduction and internal fixation of fractures of the ankle was observed. Both superficial and deep infections result in lower functional scores.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:636–40.

We investigated the association between the radiological findings and the symptoms arising from the patellofemoral joint in advanced osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. Four radiological features, joint space narrowing, osteophyte formation, translation of the patella and focal attrition were assessed in 151 consecutive osteoarthritic knees in 107 patients undergoing total knee replacement. The symptoms which were assessed included anterior knee pain which was scored, the ability to rise from a chair and climb stairs, and quadriceps weakness.

Among the radiological features, only patellar translation and obliteration of the joint space had a statistically significant association with anterior knee pain (odds ratio (OR) 4.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83 to 12.88 and OR 11.23; 95% CI 2.44 to 51.62) respectively. Patellar translation had a statistically significant association with difficulty in rising from a chair (OR 9.06; 95% CI 1.75 to 45.11). Other radiological features, including osteophytes, joint space narrowing, and focal attrition had no significant association.

Our study indicates that the radiological findings of patellar translation and significant loss of cartilage are predictive of patellofemoral symptoms and functional limitation in advanced OA of the knee.

Total hip replacement causes a short-term increase in the risk of mortality. It is important to quantify this and to identify modifiable risk factors so that the risk of post-operative mortality can be minimised. We performed a systematic review and critical evaluation of the current literature on the topic. We identified 32 studies published over the last 10 years which provide either 30-day or 90-day mortality data. We estimate the pooled incidence of mortality during the first 30 and 90 days following hip replacement to be 0.30% (95% CI 0.22 to 0.38) and 0.65% (95% CI 0.50 to 0.81), respectively. We found strong evidence of a temporal trend towards reducing mortality rates despite increasingly co-morbid patients. The risk factors for early mortality most commonly identified are increasing age, male gender and co-morbid conditions, particularly cardiovascular disease. Cardiovascular complications appear to have overtaken fatal pulmonary emboli as the leading cause of death after hip replacement.

Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2014;3:175–82

The December 2013 Oncology Roundup³⁶⁰ looks at: Peri-articular resection fraught with complications; Navigated margins; Skeletal tumours and thromboembolism; Conditional survival in Ewing’s sarcoma; Reverse shoulders and tumour; For how long should we follow up sarcoma patients?; and already metastasised?

This cohort study investigated the influence of psychological factors, including perception of illness, anxiety and depression on recovery and functional outcome after total knee replacement surgery.

A total of 100 patients (55 male; 45 female) with a mean age of 71 (42 to 92) who underwent a primary total knee replacement for osteoarthritis were recruited into this study. In all 97 participants completed the six week and 87 the one year follow-up questionnaires.

Pre-operatively patients completed the revised Illness Perception Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Recovery Locus of Control Scale. Function was assessed pre-operatively, at six weeks and one year using Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and the goniometer-measured range of movement (ROM).

The results showed that pre-operative function had the biggest impact on post-operative outcome for ROM and OKS. In addition questionnaire variables and depression had an impact on the OKS at six weeks. Depression and anxiety were also associated with a higher (worse) knee score at one year but did not influence the ROM at either six weeks or one year.

Recovery from total knee replacement can be difficult to predict. This study has identified psychological factors that play an important role in recovery from surgery and functional outcome. These should be taken into account when considering patients for total knee replacement.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:210–16.

This study assessed the effect of concomitant back pain on the Oxford knee score (OKS), Short-Form (SF)-12 and patient satisfaction after total knee replacement (TKR). It involved a prospectively compiled database of demographics and outcome scores for 2392 patients undergoing primary TKR, of whom 829 patients (35%) reported back pain. Compared with those patients without back pain, those with back pain were more likely to be female (odds ratio (OR) 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 1.8)), have a greater level of comorbidity, a worse pre-operative OKS (2.3 points (95% CI 1.7 to 3.0)) and worse SF-12 physical (2.0 points (95% CI 1.4 to 2.6)) and mental (3.3 points (95% CI 2.3 to 4.3)) components.

One year post-operatively, those with back pain had significantly worse outcome scores than those without with a mean difference in the OKS of 5 points (95% CI 3.8 to 5.4), in the SF-12 physical component of 6 points (95% CI 5.4 to 7.1) and in the mental component of 4 points (95% CI 3.1 to 4.9). Patients with back pain were less likely to be satisfied (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.78).

After adjusting for confounding variables, concomitant back pain was an independent predictor of a worse post-operative OKS, and of dissatisfaction. Clinicians should be aware that patients suffering concomitant back pain pre-operatively are at an increased risk of being dissatisfied post-operatively.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1632–9.

We present the development and results of a nationwide, prospective, observational follow-up programme including patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. The programme started in 2002 and has gradually expanded to include all units performing total hip replacement in Sweden. The self-administered PROMs protocol comprises the EQ-5D instrument, the Charnley class categorisation and visual analogue scales for pain and satisfaction. These current analyses include 34 960 total hip replacements with complete pre- and one-year post-operative questionnaires.

Patients eligible for total hip replacement generally report low health-related quality of life and suffer from pain. One year post-operatively the mean EQ-5D index increased to above the level of an age- and gender-matched population, with a considerable reduction of pain (p < 0.001). Females, younger patients and those with Charnley category C reported a lower EQ-5D index pre-operatively than males, older patients and Charnley category A or B, respectively (all p < 0.001). In a multivariable regression analysis Charnley category C, male gender and higher age were associated with less improvement in health-related quality of life (p < 0.001).

Nationwide implementation of a PROMs programme requires a structured organisation and effective data capture. Patients’ response rates to the Registry are good. The continuous collection of PROMs permits local and national improvement work and allows for further health-economic evaluation.

The aim of this study was to examine the loading of the other joints of the lower limb in patients with unilateral osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. We recruited 20 patients with no other symptoms or deformity in the lower limbs from a consecutive cohort of patients awaiting knee replacement. Gait analysis and electromyographic recordings were performed to determine moments at both knees and hips, and contraction patterns in the medial and lateral quadriceps and hamstrings bilaterally. The speed of gait was reduced in the group with OA compared with the controls, but there were only minor differences in stance times between the limbs. Patients with OA of the knee had significant increases in adduction moment impulse at both knees and the contralateral hip (adjusted p-values: affected knee: p < 0.01, unaffected knee p = 0.048, contralateral hip p = 0.03), and significantly increased muscular co-contraction bilaterally compared with controls (all comparisons for co-contraction, p < 0.01).

The other major weight-bearing joints are at risk from abnormal biomechanics in patients with unilateral OA of the knee.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:348–53.

We evaluated the rates of survival and cause of revision of seven different brands of cemented primary total knee replacement (TKR) in the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register during the years 1994 to 2009. Revision for any cause, including resurfacing of the patella, was the primary endpoint. Specific causes of revision were secondary outcomes.

Three posterior cruciate-retaining (PCR) fixed modular-bearing TKRs, two fixed non-modular bearing PCR TKRs and two mobile-bearing posterior cruciate-sacrificing TKRs were investigated in a total of 17 782 primary TKRs. The median follow-up for the implants ranged from 1.8 to 6.9 years. Kaplan-Meier 10-year survival ranged from 89.5% to 95.3%. Cox’s relative risk (RR) was calculated relative to the fixed modular-bearing Profix knee (the most frequently used TKR in Norway), and ranged from 1.1 to 2.6. The risk of revision for aseptic tibial loosening was higher in the mobile-bearing LCS Classic (RR 6.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.8 to 12.1)), the LCS Complete (RR 7.7 (95% CI 4.1 to 14.4)), the fixed modular-bearing Duracon (RR 4.5 (95% CI 1.8 to 11.1)) and the fixed non-modular bearing AGC Universal TKR (RR 2.5 (95% CI 1.3 to 5.1)), compared with the Profix. These implants (except AGC Universal) also had an increased risk of revision for femoral loosening (RR 2.3 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.8), RR 3.7 (95% CI 1.6 to 8.9), and RR 3.4 (95% CI 1.1 to 11.0), respectively). These results suggest that aseptic loosening is related to design in TKR.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:636–42.

We undertook a retrospective case-control study to assess the clinical variables associated with infections in open fractures. A total of 1492 open fractures were retrieved; these were Gustilo and Anderson grade I in 663 (44.4%), grade II in 370 (24.8%), grade III in 310 (20.8%) and unclassifiable in 149 (10.0%). The median duration of prophylaxis was three days (interquartile range (IQR) 1 to 3), and the median number of surgical interventions was two (1 to 9). We identified 54 infections (3.6%) occurring at a median of ten days (IQR 5 to 20) after trauma. Pathogens intrinsically resistant to the empirical antibiotic regimen used (enterococci, Enterobacter spp, Pseudomonas spp) were documented in 35 of 49 cases (71%). In multivariable regression analyses, grade III fractures and vascular injury or compartment syndrome were significantly associated with infection. Overall, compared with one day of antibiotic treatment, two to three days (odds ratio (OR) 0.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2 to 2.0)), four to five days (OR 1.2 (95% CI 0.3 to 4.9)), or > five days (OR 1.4 (95% CI 0.4 to 4.4)) did not show any significant differences in the infection risk. These results were similar when multivariable analysis was performed for grade III fractures only (OR 0.3 (95% CI 0.1 to 3.4); OR 0.6 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.1); and OR 1.7 (95% CI 0.5 to 6.2), respectively).

Infection in open fractures is related to the extent of tissue damage but not to the duration of prophylactic antibiotic therapy. Even for grade III fractures, a one-day course of prophylactic antibiotics might be as effective as prolonged prophylaxis.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:831–7.

This study identified variables which influence the outcome of surgical management on 126 ununited scaphoid fractures managed by internal fixation and non-vascular bone grafting. The site of fracture was defined by a new method: the ratio of the length of the proximal fragment to the sum of the lengths of both fragments, calculated using specific views in the plain radiographs. Bone healing occurred in 71% (89) of cases. Only the site of nonunion (p = 1 × 10⁻⁶) and the delay to surgery (p = 0.001) remained significant on multivariate analysis. The effect of surgical delay on the probability of union increased as the fracture site moved proximally. A prediction model was produced by stepwise logistic regression analysis, enabling the surgeon to predict the success of surgery where the site of the nonunion and delay to surgery is known.

The Norwegian Arthroplasty Register has shown that several designs of uncemented femoral stems give good or excellent survivorship. The overall findings for uncemented total hip replacement however, have been disappointing because of poor results with the use of metal-backed acetabular components. In this study, we exclusively investigated the medium-to long-term performance of primary uncemented metal-backed acetabular components.

A total of 9113 primary uncemented acetabular components were implanted in 7937 patients between 1987 and 2007. These were included in a prospective, population-based observational study. All the implants were modular and metal-backed with ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene liners. The femoral heads were made of stainless steel, cobalt-chrome (CoCr) alloy or alumina ceramic. In all, seven different designs of acetabular component were evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier survivorship method and Cox regression analysis.

Most acetabular components performed well up to seven years. When the endpoint was revision of the acetabular component because of aseptic loosening, the survival ranged between 87% and 100% at ten years. However, when the endpoint was revision for any reason, the survival estimates were 81% to 92% for the same implants at ten years. Aseptic loosening, wear, osteolysis and dislocation were the main reasons for the relatively poor overall performance of the acetabular components. Prostheses with alumina heads performed slightly better than those with stainless steel or CoCr alloy in subgroups.

Whereas most acetabular components performed well at seven years, the survivorship declined with longer follow-up. Fixation was generally good. None of the metal-backed uncemented acetabular components with ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene liners in our study had satisfactory long-term results because of high rates of wear, osteolysis, aseptic loosening and dislocation.

The systemic use of steroids and habitual alcohol intake are two major causative factors in the development of idiopathic osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH). To examine any interaction between oral corticosteroid use and alcohol intake on the risk of ONFH, we conducted a hospital-based case-control study of 71 cases with ONFH (mean age 45 years (20 to 79)) and 227 matched controls (mean age 47 years (18 to 79)). Alcohol intake was positively associated with ONFH among all subjects: the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of subjects with ≥ 3032 drink-years was 3.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18 to 13.1) compared with never-drinkers. When stratified by steroid use, the OR of such drinkers was 11.1 (95% CI 1.30 to 95.5) among those who had never used steroids, but 1.10 (95% CI 0.21 to 4.79) among those who had. When we assessed any interaction based on a two-by-two table of alcohol and steroid use, the OR of those non-drinkers who did use steroids was markedly elevated (OR 31.5) compared with users of neither. However, no further increase in OR was noted for the effect of using both (OR 31.6). We detected neither a multiplicative nor an additive interaction (p for multiplicative interaction 0.19; synergy index 0.95), suggesting that the added effect of alcohol may be trivial compared with the overwhelming effect of steroids in the development of ONFH.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:320–5.

We assessed the effect of mental disability on the outcome of total knee replacement (TKR) and investigated whether mental health improves post-operatively. Outcome data were prospectively recorded over a three-year period for 962 patients undergoing primary TKR for osteoarthritis. Pre-operative and one year Short-Form (SF)-12 scores and Oxford knee scores (OKS) were obtained. The mental component of the SF-12 was stratified into four groups according to level of mental disability (none ≥ 50, mild 40 to 49, moderate 30 to 39, severe < 30). Patients with any degree of mental disability had a significantly greater subjective physical disability according to the SF-12 (p = 0.06) and OKS (p < 0.001). The improvement in the disease-specific score (OKS) was not affected by a patient’s mental health (p = 0.33). In contrast, patients with mental disability had less of an improvement in their global physical health (SF-12) (p < 0.001). However, patients with any degree of mental disability had a significant improvement in their mental health post-operatively (p < 0.001).

Despite a similar improvement in their disease-specific scores and improvement in their mental health, patients with mental disability were significantly more likely to be dissatisfied with their TKR at one year (p = 0.001). Patients with poor mental health do benefit from improvements in their mental health and knee function after TKR, but also have a higher rate of dissatisfaction.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:360–6.

Seligman’s theory of causal attribution predicts that patients with a pessimistic explanatory style will have less favourable health outcomes. We identified 702 patients who had undergone 894 primary total knee replacements between 1993 and 2005, who responded to follow-up surveys at two (n = 783 knee replacements) and/or five years (n = 443 knee replacements) and had also completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory long before the joint replacement (median = 16.6 and 14.5 years for two- and five-year cohorts, respectively). Scores from the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory Optimism-Pessimism scale were used to categorise patients as pessimistic (t-score > 60) or non-pessimistic (t-score ≤ 60). Multivariate logistic regression models assessing the effect of pessimistic explanatory style on pain or improvement in knee function were adjusted for gender, age, distance from the place of treatment and depression score. Pessimists reported (a) significantly more moderate or severe pain at two years with odds ratio 2.21 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12 to 4.35; p = 0.02), but not at five years when the odds ratio was 1.21 (95% CI 0.51 to 2.83; p = 0.67); and (b) less improvement in knee function at two years when the odds ratio was 0.53 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.96; p = 0.04), but not at five years when the odds ratio was 1.26 (95% CI 0.57 to 2.77; p = 0.57).

No significant associations with moderate or severe limitation of activity were seen at two or five years. We conclude that a pessimistic explanatory style is associated with worse pain and functional outcomes two years after total knee replacement.